Tag Archives: Seattle Seahawks

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) Free NFL Pick: Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up.

On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.

That being said, I am taking them here. Why? Well, the Hawks are 2-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-5 against teams with winning records. So they play well against tomato cans (or fellow tomato cans, if you want to go that far) but they certainly struggle against good teams. Where does Detroit fit in? Right. Those two bad teams that Seattle has beaten, Jacksonville and St. Louis, a 69-0 combined score in those two games. Seattle’s defense plays well with a lead, something they should get this week at home.

Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys Free NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) Free Pick: I really want to pick the Seahawks, and at first that’s exactly the directions I was going to go, then I thought about it a little more and though that if Matt Hasselbeck has no time to throw against a physical and athletic defense in Dallas, I don’t see the Hawks making many big plays. Earlier in the year, Dallas was struggling to attack the passer, but it’s hard to imagine that being the case against this make-shift offensive line Seattle has been forced to put together. And now the Cowboys are bringing pressure with ease. Not only that, but Dallas’s offense, a group that had been struggling to find an identity, has seemingly figured it out over the past couple weeks, finding a young receiver named Miles Austin to be the playmaker down the field. With Marion Barber and Felix Jones getting healthier by the day, and Tony Romo seemingly back at his confident place, the Cowboys looks as scary as people expect them to be. The Hawks have only played well against the league’s lesser teams, and while Dallas might not be Super Bowl bound, they are definitely a team fighting for a playoffs spot this season. All things considered, I just think Dallas’s pass rush will be too much. I’ll take Dallas at home.

Sunday Observations: Week 6 NFL Football

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My buddy Josh had this great idea, take some of our best comments to each other from Sunday’s action, the group’s best and worst textual masterpieces, and put them together in one article for all to see. Sometimes our day-time observations can be priceless, other times hilarious, and every once in a while even useful. You need to know, I have Sunday ticket, Josh is braving the darkness of Alaska and whichever games they show up there, Papa never leaves his dungeon, and Red Red Ryan couldn’t take part in this week’s texting session because his red hair (and female partner) wouldn’t allow him to do so. The bottom line is, we all watch football in different places, so we keep our texting handy to pretend we’re watching the games together. So, Red was out this week but still, Papa, Josh, and I sent texts to and fro. Here’s the Top 15, compiled by yours truly…

Josh Arsenault

1. Percy Harvin is a speed guy that loves to hit people… Watch him block from the slot and it’s easy to see why the Vikings love him.

2. Ray Rice’s game reminds me of MJD…. He and Flacco have a chance to be special for a long time.

3. John Fox makes coaching look hard… Here’s a tip, Foxy: D-Will, D-Will, J-Stew, D-Will, J-Stew, J-Stew, D-Will… Somebody get this guy a Tecmo Bowl playbook.

4. There is nobody in the NFL I enjoy watching lose more than Jay Cutler… Except maybe Al Davis… Here’s hoping Culter winds up with the Raiders at some point.

5. No team is more bi-polar than the Seattle Seahawks… Their two wins were shutouts (28-0 and 41-0) and their four losses have been by an average margin of 15 points. Which one will it be coming off their bye?

Lucky Lester

1. Rummaging through the games I think I’ve watched five offensive plays by the Bills, and I’m pretty damn sure Terrell Owens has three drops. If the average team has 60 offensive plays, TO is on pace to drop 36 balls based on my numbers – that has to be a record.

2. Joshua Cribbs is unreal, but unless he returns 5 kickoffs and punts for touchdowns, the Browns aren’t going to have a chance to win this game.

3. How do nine football games manage to all be on commercial at the same time, and not one has reached half time? On the bright side, the Tampa game is showing their cheerleaders, and I’m pretty sure they are only wearing jerseys – there might be black panties under there, but I’m not sure.

4. The Jaguars must really stink, because Maurice Jones Drew is really freaking good and they still suck.

5. I hate watching Jake Delhomme, he’s like a Ben Stiller movie, I feel embarrassed for the guy. He tries so hard but he just keeps zipping his junk up in his zipper. The guy can dig himself a hole with the best of them.

Papa Weimer

1. I hope Jim Zorn realizes that it’s not the quarterback, it’s him. Jason Campbell is better than Todd Collins, that’s why he’s started over the past 2 seasons. It’s the play calling, the dead end coaching spot, and the general broke down feeling of the Skins franchise.

2. I feel bad for Todd Haley, his offense plays like the last 3 eight grade teams I coached. They jump off-sides like it’s their job, they miss assignments all day long, and they do just enough to give you a glimmer of hope before they rip it away with a holding penalty and two jumps off-sides on back2back2back plays.

3. If you got paid a million dollars to get knocked out, and you got to pick one guy to make sure the job got done right, which player in the league would you choose to rock your world? I got Ray Lewis. (Josh replies, Brian Dawkins) (Lucky replies, Aaron Curry)

4. Hahahaha… The Rams are going to win, the Rams are going to win! Leonard Little, pick 6, the worst team in the league won’t tie the Lions for the worst record ever!

5. The Rams lose. Figures. If the Rams and Bucs gave all their best players to fight for a singular cause, they’d still get beat 12 times a year.

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks: I hope the Hawks win. I don’t like the brand of football Arizona plays offensively, I think they give up way too many big plays. However, I don’t see the injured Hawks offensive line doing enough to slow that Cardinal pass rush. They have 3 back-ups on the O-line starting group, and that’s being generous with the word back-ups, some of these guys are back-up back-ups. And the Cardinals front four can bring it. Now I’ve been hurt by the Hawks a lot, going against them or betting for them, so buyer be ware, but I see the Cardinals winning this game by 10.

NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins (Part III)

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TheGreek.com and the total wins I project as well. Enjoy!

  1. Oakland Raiders (Over 5.5 wins -140) (7): The Raiders are tougher than this. If they can stop the run a little better and be a little more efficient through the air, this team could get close to .500. It’s not like they have to rummage through a tough division, KC and Denver could both get swept by the more physical Raiders. Will that happen? I don’t know, but it’s possible, and the Raiders have a good enough run game to give mediocre teams fits. I think they’ll do that on way to their highest win total in quite some time.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (Over 9.5 wins +125) (10): This one is tough, not a great value bet, but I like the Eagles to get into double digit wins. They’re hurting at linebacker though, they have some dings on the offensive line, and they lost their defensive and possibly team leader when Brian Dawkins left Philadelphia for Denver. This team is still full of talent. I would stay away from this bet, they could take the division or they could be scrambling for .500 – but I like the former over the latter, dream big Philly fans.
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 10.5 wins +110) (10): I would be surprised if the Steelers got 12 wins in 2009. Finishing out of the playoffs seems like a crazy idea too, but after a long run last season, the injuries could pile up in 2009, making a good finish tough to come by. Besides the Browns, I think this division will be pretty tough. They do get the luxury of playing the AFC West though, that should get them 3 wins easily. Still, I have a feeling dings will catch up with the Steelers, making 11+ wins tough to come by.
  4. San Diego Chargers (Under 10.5 wins -125) (10): Somebody will say I’m crazy, but it’s possible that nobody in the AFC East wins double digit games. The Chargers are talented, as always, but they aren’t completely healthy, have one of football’s toughest schedules, and rely heavily on a 30+ running back. Now LT is one of the best ever, and the Chargers do have 6 games against the likes of KC, Oakland, and Denver, but I wouldn’t be stunned if they just barely get to 10 wins. Oakland plays them tough at least once a year. Denver could get a lucky win. The Chargers have to play the Steelers, Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Cowboys, Redskins, Cowboys, and Dolphins, not to mention the rest of their normal NFL schedule. Those are playoff teams, or at least teams in the playoff picture right off the bat. Easy division? Yes. But they rest of their schedule has me on the under.
  5. San Francisco 49ers (Over 7.5 wins +105) (9): So what? Maybe there’s a little soft spot in my heart for anything football related to Mike Singletary. As a kid, I wore #50 in anything I did. I rocked it throughout my football career, and tried to play with that Singletary focus. So maybe I think a little too highly of Mike’s Niners. But I don’t think that’s the case. What I see is a team that finished the season  5-2. A team that has a lot of toughness and is easily the most physical team in a pretty soft NFC West. They may not be the best or most talented, but the Seahawks always have trouble stoping Frank Gore, and the Cardinals have similar problems. Obviously the Rams are relatively soft up front as well. I see lots of teams San Fran can out physical this season, and quite a few of those are on the 49ers’ schedule. So I’ll take the over and root hard for my favorite football guy to come through.
  6. Seattle Seahawks (Over 8.5 +130) (11): I really like this bet, even when I’m surprised it’s not at 7.5 – maybe Vegas just knows. The Hawks are the best team in the NFC West. That’s right, better than the returning Super Bowl runner-up Arizona Cardinals, better than the more physical Niners, and better than last year’s worst team in football, St. Louis Rams. (Record-wise, maybe not, but they would have lost 7 of 10 to the Lions last year, I guarantee it). So the Hawks are the top of this division, and this is why, they are a little better, a little more explosive, better up front defensively, and they also add TJ Housh and the best player in the draft, Aaron Curry. Oh, and they are twice as healthy. Injuries can always hit, but two years in a row seems questionable. The Hawks have more depth, a new coaching situation that should invigorate them a bit, and better players at the top end. And this team was picked to win the West last year. I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m thinking last season’s down year was a fluke for the Hawks. This year will be different.
  7. St. Louis Rams (Under 5.5 +135) (6): I hate the Rams, think they were absolutely brutal last season. Plus their best receiving playmaker is an undersized sophomore that is known mostly as a burner, and will start the season on in injured list. (Donnie Avery). They are starting players that were cut from other teams. I see a lot of teams on the Rams schedule that will be difficult to beat. Starting with everyone, and then having to play the NFC North and AFC South, plus their usual terrible division is getting stronger, and they have to play the Redskins and Saints, two more teams I would easily rank much higher than the Rams. There’s no easy games for a team like the Rams, but this season seems especially tough.
  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 6.5 +140) (8): Really? Six and a half? This team has a stacked offensive line, a very good group of running backs, a solid leader in Byron Leftwich (whom doesn’t make tons of mistakes) and a defense that is out to prove they’re still solid after struggling down the stretch last season. It’s not like they lost a ton in the off-season, and they are consistently a solid team. Maybe it was all Jon Gruden before? I don’t know, I don’t get it, I think 8 seems like an easy number to get for the Bucs.
  9. Tennessee Titans(Over 9.5 wins +160) (10): The Titans lost one of the best defensive front players in football when Haynesworth signed a ginormous deal with the Redskins. But they are still stout defensively. They have playmakers on offense, easily being more explosive in the passing game with the additions of Nate Washington (very underrated) and rookie burner Kenny Britt – big tough receiver from Rutgers. LenDale is in great shape, looking to repeat as a touchdown beast, and everybody knows Chris Johnson is made of magic and pixy dust. I’m not a big Kerry Collins fan, but he rarely puts his team in tough situations. There’s lots of wins on the Titans’ schedule.
  10. Washington Redskins (Under 8.5 wins -150) (8): This is not a great money bet, the payout numbers are bad, and in the NFC West anything can happen. This defense got a lot stronger at the point of attack with Haynesworth climbing on board. They have lots of speed and talent in the secondary, and a second year under Jim Zorn, running his offensive schemes, should help this passing game be more efficient. Still, this team needs to get tougher, and in a very tough division less than .500 is a very big possability. Talentwise they could make the playoffs. So there it is, I didn’t give you much in terms of a sure thing here, but I’m leaning toward the under.

And that’s a wrap, next time I discuss this it will be a review of how well I did… But I will reference it throughout the season, if it supports my cause of course. Ha.

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 5

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7-5-1 heading into Monday Night, I locked down yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) “The Ravens won’t be able to throw. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.” Well, I loved it all week long but it started to get more and more worrisome as Sunday began to eclipse – but in the end, that field goal I needed the Titans to cover came through as Tennessee had one more score at the end of the game to pull me up 3. Whew.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: (LOSER) Washington State sports = no thanks. I don’t know what’s happened to the Hawks, but they’ll need to do a lot more than beat some random bad team in the NFC to get my full confidence again – I should have known. Sorry for leading you astray on this butt kicking, the Hawks lost by a million it seemed like. 44-6 = one million in football speak.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): (LOSER) I think this one is close – and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell.” Okay, the Eagles did put some pressure on Campbell to start the game, but their run defense that had been stellar was torched by Clinton Portis. Portis was in full beast mode, showing hulk strength, busting tackles and basically carrying the Redskins to victory. The Eagles were up early and I was smiling, but Philly didn’t do anything offensively, and the Redskins took full advantage. Washington is really impressing me.

San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: (LOSER) “I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.” Soooo… Haha, apparently the “experts” slapped me around on this one. San Diego came out a little stale, and Miami showed a couple folks that their win over New England wasn’t as flukey as it seemed. Can Sparano and Parcells really give this bad of a team this much confidence? It seems like it. I was DEAD WRONG about this one, and even though I thought it’d be close, the Dolphins are just much more physical than I thought. I don’t think they’ll sleep on anyone else this season, but they’ll continue to be a tough out.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: (WINNER) 34-7… It doesn’t pay to be a Lion fan right now. And don’t get me wrong, it rarely has. The Bears embarrassed the Lions in all aspects of the game, making me look smart with my road favorite pick here.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): (LOSER) Well, Aaron Rodgers played, had a pretty damn good game, and the Packers still go to 2-3 on the season, tallying up their 3rd loss in as many contests. It looks like these young teams with new coaches are doing something right these days – maybe a couple of these franchises (Miami, Atlanta, Washington) are turning the corner. I definitely like what I see from Matt Ryan and the young Falcons – going into Green Bay and man-handling the Packers up front is big step forward.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER) “This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here.” What else could you call what happened on Sunday in Houston? Will to win. The Colts snuck out another one, and while they could easily be 0-4, they’re through the first quarter of the season at 2-2. Houston will get it together, but they’ll have a tough couple days thinking about this one getting away. I lucked out with this cover. Houston dominated the Colts for much of this game. 21 points in 4 minutes got me a one point win – you don’t want much of that business going on here, not unless heart failure is your ideal way to go.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there.” Larry Johnson, the AFC’s leading rusher coming in, had 2 yards on 7 carries and the Panthers shutout the Chiefs in dominating fashion. Got this one right on the button.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): (PUSH) “This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation.” Well, it was close, and the gut-feeling had some kind of feeling going on. In the end this low scoring affair ended with Splinter’s Broncos up 3 and pushing me to a tie.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): (WINNER)  “I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.” Well, the highs and lows definitely evened out. It didn’t hurt that Trent Edwards went down early with a concussion, and even though Losman looked good throwing the ball a couple times, his turnover prone quarterbacking meant the end for Buffalo. Arizona played well, stuffing the run pretty good and constantly attacking on offense. All in all, I was right. Ha,

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WINNER)  “I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.” (YEP) – The 49ers had a chance if they gave Frank Gore about 15 more carries – as it turned out, they just threw the ball a lot and put up their fair share of turnovers. That will lose you any game against the Pats. Yay me, boo Mike Martz!

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) This one was close, once again proving that even bad teams in the NFL shouldn’t be underdogs by 17 points. Ridiculous. The Bengals were even tougher than the final score insists, as a late touchdown put the Cowboys up 9, and before that Carson Palmer and company were a two point conversion away from tying this thing late in the 4th. Good value, good win, this one made me a sure thing winner in Week 5.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): (LOSER) The final score was close, and Jacksonville was up one late in the game, but the Steelers really came out fired up for this one, out-toughing the Jaguars from the get go. Pittsburgh is an interesting team that I’m not reading real well, no question about that. Their run-defense played inspired football handing me my 6th loss on the week.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: I won this game, and I have to say, despite losing the yardage battle, and feeling that I was going to lose the game all night, and watching Drew Brees pass at will, I was really happy when Martin Gramatica came in to put the Saints up three. That basically gives me a win. This was definitely and interesting one, and I’m not sure I picked the right side on this game, but I did come out on top, bringing me to 8-5-1 on the week, three more games over .500. I’ll take a win any way I can get it.

Five for Friday

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I’m putting you guys on UPSET watch – both fantasy-wise and reality football games as well. I have five of each- here’s the explosive Friday Five (x2) – that equals 10…

FANTASY

  1. The Ravens (a Top 3 defense so far this season in fantasy land) goes up against a Titans team that doesn’t put up a lot of points. You’d think this would be a good match-up, but get ready for the fantasy upset. The Titans don’t make many mistakes, and the Ravens have to be a little behind during a short week and after a big physical game on Monday night in Pittsburgh. Don’t expect big things from the Ravens D.

  2. Tony Romo against the Bengals might seem dreamy, but I just don’t see him loading up and throwing the ball all over the field, not after Dallas forgot about their stellar rushing attack and lost to Washington last week. Tony won’t throw more than 25 times, and I think that limits his value this week. He’ll be good, but I’d say he just sneaks into the Top 10, not a real Tony Romo week.

  3. Santana Moss against the Eagles – right now Moss is in one of those “big year” states that he gets in from time to time, and I’m sure he’ll continue to do well – just not this week in Philly. The Eagles secondary is very good, and I’d bet they put extra work into shutting down Moss. Randel El is solid, but if he gets the ball he won’t hurt you like Santana does, same with Chris Cooley. I’m guessing Moss has 5 catches or less for less than 50 yards.

  4. Mike Turner – all the “experts” are saying that Mike can’t do it against good defenses, and this week they can’t be proven right. I love the Packers, but they lost a great DT in a trade this year, and they are missing another starter this week. They are struggling in the secondary with injuries, and their big hitting safety is out too. Turner will do well against a good defense, but that defense is injury depleted. For the record, I’m not one of those anti-Turner “experts”.

  5. Marshawn Lynch against Arizona might sound flashy, but I don’t think it will turn out that way. Arizona is much better against the run than people give them credit for, and the Bills aren’t very creative with Lynch in his carry load. Expect him to be very mediocre this week. Again.

REAL FOOTBALL

  1. I’m taking the Colts, but the Texans are winless and they pack a pretty nice offensive combo through the air and on the ground. Andre Johnson hasn’t gone off yet, and Kevin Walter has been solid. Steve Slaton might do the trick for Houston. Upset watch – get on it!

  2. Washington at Philadelphia – they can’t possibly beat the Cowboys and Eagles back to back, can they? I don’t think it will happen, but the Redskins are legit. They have a tough team that comes out to win every time. The Redskins are pretty injury ridden defensively, but you never know, they could use black magic.

  3. Detroit vs. Chicago – once again, I’m with the Bears on this one, but Chicago could revert back to last years’ play, and Detroit could crawl out under the Millen rock in a single week. Detroit has some talent, no doubt about that, and this would be a big one for them. I’m just saying, watch out.

  4. Tampa Bay at Denver is scary for the Broncos. Tampa does all the things that Denver doesn’t – ball control, tough defense, doesn’t give you anything for free, doesn’t take unnecessary chances. Denver could win by two touchdowns or get beat at home – interesting week for a team that was becoming everyone’s favorite offensive show.

  5. Seattle never does well on the road and New York is undefeated after winning the Super Bowl – look out, upset city could rear it’s ugly head. You know why? Because it seems that unlikely – that’s right. Seattle gets Engram and Branch back, and that should give them a little boost. Julius is running well. This defense is tougher than scores have shown. New York is without Plaxico, a guy that torches Seattle. You never know.

NFL Free Picks: Week 5

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After a .500 Week 4, I am still in the green headed into the nitty gritty portion of the season. That’s right, bankrolls are made during the Week 5 – Week 10 section of the season. The lucky ones that think their brilliance has built them a huge lead begin to struggle while the wily old veterans do their best work. Which one will it be for me? Well, we shall see. 14 big games to choose from, take em all or take the best value, here are my Week 5 picks.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens won’t be able to throw. They still aren’t able to pass, as they just don’t take enough chances, and they went into overtime with a very physical Steeler team in Pittsburgh on Monday Night. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ New York Giants: This game has stayed at (-9) on BetJamaica, and with that value I have to take the Hawks. Seattle doesn’t play their best football on the road, no doubt about that, but after struggling to start the season, the Hawks don’t have time to play crappy road ball. I like the Giants to win this one, but New York hasn’t proven to be a good value as a big favorite. Their style of football equals a lot of close games, and I expect this one to be around a touchdown. At -7, it’s more of a toss up, but I’d still take the Hawks there.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5): Thin this one is close. The Eagles are, in my opinion, one of the best teams in all the land, but the Redskins are no slouch. I still see a bit of a letdown from the young guys on Washington’s squad after a big win in Dallas. Philadelphia will likely get Brian Westbrook back this week, and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell- I like the kid, but he’s not ready to be the reason Washington beats Philly.

San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Miami Dolphins: I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. San Diego gets a couple guys back on their starting defense this week, and they’ll be solid against Miami’s run. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions: I’m not ready to fully buy into Chicago just yet, but I’ll take them at just over a field goal against the Lions. Things have to be looking up for the Lions now that their doink of a GM is out of town, but that won’t instantly give them field credit. The Bears should be able to run all over the Lions, and if the Bears are running freely they are in for an auto-win. I like Chicago here, as they are too physical and too defensive for these little lion cubs.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7): I like the Packers in this one. It’s possible, that after a really good start, the Packers got overrated. I understand that, and I even agree with it. However, they are now 2-2 and with the Falcons coming to Lambeau I don’t see they faltering to 2-3. A home game against a low-end Falcons team is just what the Packer ordered. Green Bay’s rushing attack will be better, and a lot will go into stopping Mike Turner and Jerious Norwood. I don’t think Matt Ryan beats the Packers – I’ll take them at -7.

**** – I found out this Thursday morning that Aaron Rodgers is very unlikely to play in this weeks game. I had believed that he would definitely suit up for this one. While that doesn’t ruin Green Bay’s chances, it certainly hinders them. I have to stick with this pick, but based on this knowledge I wouldn’t take Green Bay at anything lower than -3, which you might be able to get.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here. The Colts as a field goal favorite always looks pretty good, and while I’m a huge Texan guy I just don’t see them as a field goal underdog to Indy as good value. Peyton, with a week to heal and to get more comfortable with his offensive line, should look a lot better. I like the Colts in Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there. KC is coming off a huge win so a let down is a good chance bet right here. Carolina is at least 10 points better than KC. Carolina is good. KC is bad. The Panthers will be able to run, and like I said before, if they can do that they are a top-notch football team in this league. Take the Panthers, and do it with a smile.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos (-3): This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation. I think Denver can score on any defense, even a Buccaneer group that shows strength in all areas. I don’t think Denver will turn the ball over like they did in a flukey loss to Kansas City, and I think that blow up is the beast that has this game at just -3. A field goal is right at my cap zone, so like i said, this one is tough. But pushing me over the edge is Denver’s air attack and their home field advantage. I’ll ride the Broncos.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (pk): I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). I think Arizona, a tough run defense, has the advantage in this match-up because of their ability to put some pressure on the ball and make Buffalo beat them through the air. The Bills have had some nice luck riding their undefeated streak, but that has to end some time, and there is not better place than on the road against a team that got embarrassed last week as Brett and the Jets put up nearly 50 points on them. The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers:  I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: I think Palmer will play. I hate the Bengals, but the Cowboys aren’t a 17.5 point favorite with any value. They allow too many big plays through the air, and with two dynamic receivers in Cinci, ready to attack a big stage in Dallas, I like the underdogs to cover here. Remember, even if Dallas wins this one by a couple touchdowns the Bengals cover. I like that chance.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4): I promised myself I wouldn’t be taking the Ravens or the Steelers after watching them crash into each other play after play on Monday NIght. It’s a short week for the Steelers, just like the Ravens, and they are headed into a tough physical match-up for the second week in a row. I think Garrard will be better through the air in this one, and I don’t think Pittsburgh will be able to take advantage of a down year on the front line for the Jaguars. This should be a higher scoring game than many expect, but the Jags by a touchdown or two wouldn’t surprise me.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Vikings are better than the Saints – they get Bryant McKinnie back after a four game suspension – they will be able to run circles around New Orleans – Gus should be okay, but even if he isn’t, I still like Tarvaris Jackson to win this game on the road. Anything else? Well, New Orleans will be passing the ball a lot, and while that gives them a chance, it also leaves a lot up for grabs. Expect the Vikings to grab some of those ups and take this one easily.