NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins (Part III)

TheGreek.com and the total wins I project as well. Enjoy!

  1. Oakland Raiders (Over 5.5 wins -140) (7): The Raiders are tougher than this. If they can stop the run a little better and be a little more efficient through the air, this team could get close to .500. It’s not like they have to rummage through a tough division, KC and Denver could both get swept by the more physical Raiders. Will that happen? I don’t know, but it’s possible, and the Raiders have a good enough run game to give mediocre teams fits. I think they’ll do that on way to their highest win total in quite some time.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (Over 9.5 wins +125) (10): This one is tough, not a great value bet, but I like the Eagles to get into double digit wins. They’re hurting at linebacker though, they have some dings on the offensive line, and they lost their defensive and possibly team leader when Brian Dawkins left Philadelphia for Denver. This team is still full of talent. I would stay away from this bet, they could take the division or they could be scrambling for .500 – but I like the former over the latter, dream big Philly fans.
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 10.5 wins +110) (10): I would be surprised if the Steelers got 12 wins in 2009. Finishing out of the playoffs seems like a crazy idea too, but after a long run last season, the injuries could pile up in 2009, making a good finish tough to come by. Besides the Browns, I think this division will be pretty tough. They do get the luxury of playing the AFC West though, that should get them 3 wins easily. Still, I have a feeling dings will catch up with the Steelers, making 11+ wins tough to come by.
  4. San Diego Chargers (Under 10.5 wins -125) (10): Somebody will say I’m crazy, but it’s possible that nobody in the AFC East wins double digit games. The Chargers are talented, as always, but they aren’t completely healthy, have one of football’s toughest schedules, and rely heavily on a 30+ running back. Now LT is one of the best ever, and the Chargers do have 6 games against the likes of KC, Oakland, and Denver, but I wouldn’t be stunned if they just barely get to 10 wins. Oakland plays them tough at least once a year. Denver could get a lucky win. The Chargers have to play the Steelers, Ravens, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Cowboys, Redskins, Cowboys, and Dolphins, not to mention the rest of their normal NFL schedule. Those are playoff teams, or at least teams in the playoff picture right off the bat. Easy division? Yes. But they rest of their schedule has me on the under.
  5. San Francisco 49ers (Over 7.5 wins +105) (9): So what? Maybe there’s a little soft spot in my heart for anything football related to Mike Singletary. As a kid, I wore #50 in anything I did. I rocked it throughout my football career, and tried to play with that Singletary focus. So maybe I think a little too highly of Mike’s Niners. But I don’t think that’s the case. What I see is a team that finished the seasonĀ  5-2. A team that has a lot of toughness and is easily the most physical team in a pretty soft NFC West. They may not be the best or most talented, but the Seahawks always have trouble stoping Frank Gore, and the Cardinals have similar problems. Obviously the Rams are relatively soft up front as well. I see lots of teams San Fran can out physical this season, and quite a few of those are on the 49ers’ schedule. So I’ll take the over and root hard for my favorite football guy to come through.
  6. Seattle Seahawks (Over 8.5 +130) (11): I really like this bet, even when I’m surprised it’s not at 7.5 – maybe Vegas just knows. The Hawks are the best team in the NFC West. That’s right, better than the returning Super Bowl runner-up Arizona Cardinals, better than the more physical Niners, and better than last year’s worst team in football, St. Louis Rams. (Record-wise, maybe not, but they would have lost 7 of 10 to the Lions last year, I guarantee it). So the Hawks are the top of this division, and this is why, they are a little better, a little more explosive, better up front defensively, and they also add TJ Housh and the best player in the draft, Aaron Curry. Oh, and they are twice as healthy. Injuries can always hit, but two years in a row seems questionable. The Hawks have more depth, a new coaching situation that should invigorate them a bit, and better players at the top end. And this team was picked to win the West last year. I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m thinking last season’s down year was a fluke for the Hawks. This year will be different.
  7. St. Louis Rams (Under 5.5 +135) (6): I hate the Rams, think they were absolutely brutal last season. Plus their best receiving playmaker is an undersized sophomore that is known mostly as a burner, and will start the season on in injured list. (Donnie Avery). They are starting players that were cut from other teams. I see a lot of teams on the Rams schedule that will be difficult to beat. Starting with everyone, and then having to play the NFC North and AFC South, plus their usual terrible division is getting stronger, and they have to play the Redskins and Saints, two more teams I would easily rank much higher than the Rams. There’s no easy games for a team like the Rams, but this season seems especially tough.
  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 6.5 +140) (8): Really? Six and a half? This team has a stacked offensive line, a very good group of running backs, a solid leader in Byron Leftwich (whom doesn’t make tons of mistakes) and a defense that is out to prove they’re still solid after struggling down the stretch last season. It’s not like they lost a ton in the off-season, and they are consistently a solid team. Maybe it was all Jon Gruden before? I don’t know, I don’t get it, I think 8 seems like an easy number to get for the Bucs.
  9. Tennessee Titans(Over 9.5 wins +160) (10): The Titans lost one of the best defensive front players in football when Haynesworth signed a ginormous deal with the Redskins. But they are still stout defensively. They have playmakers on offense, easily being more explosive in the passing game with the additions of Nate Washington (very underrated) and rookie burner Kenny Britt – big tough receiver from Rutgers. LenDale is in great shape, looking to repeat as a touchdown beast, and everybody knows Chris Johnson is made of magic and pixy dust. I’m not a big Kerry Collins fan, but he rarely puts his team in tough situations. There’s lots of wins on the Titans’ schedule.
  10. Washington Redskins (Under 8.5 wins -150) (8): This is not a great money bet, the payout numbers are bad, and in the NFC West anything can happen. This defense got a lot stronger at the point of attack with Haynesworth climbing on board. They have lots of speed and talent in the secondary, and a second year under Jim Zorn, running his offensive schemes, should help this passing game be more efficient. Still, this team needs to get tougher, and in a very tough division less than .500 is a very big possability. Talentwise they could make the playoffs. So there it is, I didn’t give you much in terms of a sure thing here, but I’m leaning toward the under.

And that’s a wrap, next time I discuss this it will be a review of how well I did… But I will reference it throughout the season, if it supports my cause of course. Ha.