Pre-Season Football: Week 2 Free Picks

After an undefeated 3-0-1 start to the pre-season, I’m feeling a little too confident in these late summer exhibition games – but since when is cocky bad in this business? This week I have a few winners that I really like and it all starts with Friday Night’s Raiders-Titans game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing. The Cowboys 2nd and 3rd units can’t stop anyone and the Broncos don’t have a collective group that can be considered a defense – they are more like a slow down. Denver can’t stop the run or the pass and their special teams isn’t looking all that flattering either. Dallas has a lot of strengths, but I still see Denver putting up a couple touchdowns on Saturday. Believe it! This one is sailing over the spread.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

The Patriots just don’t try to win these games. They won’t play most of their big names more than a couple series, and the Bucs have a solid all around team with some good young players looking for experience. They’ll have some good players putting in work, and with Garcia, Luke McCown, Chris Sims and more, they’ll have plenty of experienced quarterbacks to lead the way. I like the Bucs to win this home game easily.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest. I like Chris Perry, but even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend. The Lions have decent back-up quarterbacks and Kitna is an accurate cat. Also, with 4-5 solid receivers and a couple running backs looking to make an impact – I like the Lions offense to put up some points in the zoo. A couple big plays could split this game wide open, but I like the Lions to be the guys making those plays.

NFL Free Picks Review: Saturday's Games

WINNER! WINNER!

My Saturday Pre-Season games locked me into a 3-0-1 start to the season. Yes, I love the pre-season just as much if I can make money. Here’s a look at what happened on Saturday to keep me undefeated thus far.

San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders (UNDER 33.5) (8-8-08) (WIN!)

There was one touchdown in the first half of play – and it was on a punt return by Johnny Lee Higgens. Joe Nedney added a field goal making the total points scored 10. So, I walk into the 2nd half needing 3 touchdowns and a field goal to bust the total and lose me my first game. No bad luck here, though, as the Raiders and 49ers continued their offensive sluggishness on way to just 14 total points in the 2nd half. Mike Martz has his hands full in the Bay – without quarterbacks to throw the ball, even his lesser named receivers will find life difficult. As for this game, BINGO! Hit it right on the bulls-eye.

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-2.5) (8-9-08) (WIN!)

The Texans were up 13-7 at half, and I felt pretty good about my chances to cover. However, the Broncos kicked three second half field goals to tie it all up at 16 a piece. But, as time expired in this one, Kris Brown hit a very short field goal to not only win, but cover that wonderful 2.5 point spread and keep me undefeated during the first week of the pre-season. Sage Rosenfels looked good for the Texans, and as a team they were 18-25 passing the ball. But, it was the Texans 140 rushing yards that controlled the clock and the game. I love to win games in which 7 field goals passed through the uprights.

NFL 2008 Free Pre-Season Picks: Just Warming Up

Pre-Season football doesn’t have to be a visual representation of numbers you’ve never seen and names you’ll never no – not at all. In fact, this whole situation of backups and borderline shenanigans can be a profitable little system. I’ve highlighted a few of the games and lines that drew my attention in Week 1 of preseason action and this is what I’ve come up with. 

 
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (-3) (8-7-08)

I like the Lions to cover (-3) at home against the Giants. The Giants won the Super Bowl, and have always looked like a team that could care less about the pre-season. Also, Plax won’t be playing, Ahmad Bradshaw and Jacobs won’t get much work, there are some injuries to the Giant receiving corps, and they lost a couple key players after winning the big game. This is just pre-season, but Marinelli is a guy trying to prove that he can win in Detroit, and I’d like to think it starts in the pre-season this year. 

 
Baltimore Ravens (+5) @ New England Patriots  (8-7-08)

I like Baltimore (+5) in New England to at least cover. They have a 3-way battle at quarterback going on, Ray Rice is a good young player looking to get some looks, and basically, offensively, this whole team (aside from Willis – who won’t be playing) is trying to grab a starting gig. They have more than a few good young offensive linemen, and they always have a bevy of young defensive players ready to hit hard. Look for New England to enjoy the sidelines, or at least most of their decent players will, while soon to be cut players take a majority of the pre-season snaps. 

 
San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders (UNDER 33.5)  (8-8-08)

I like the Under (34) in California when the Raiders and 49ers meet up. Neither of these teams can score for beans, and even though their defenses are equally as brutal, it seems that week one is a low scoring pre-season week anyway. This low under won’t be outscored, I like the under. 

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-2.5)  (8-9-08)

Lastly, I like Sage Rosenfels and Matt Schaub to each throw a touchdown against Denver’s friendly defensive unit and the Texans (-2.5) to cover at home against the Broncos. The Texans can put up points, and they have a lot of 1st 2nd and 3rd team guys that are interchangeable (maybe not great but still). That should mean Gary Kubiak can outmanage his old mentor (Mike Shanny) and beat the Broncos in the pre-season opener.