NFL Season Preview: Over/Under Regular Season Wins (Part II)

As promised, I’m back with my over/under predictions for the NFL Season. This time I take care of the middle-of-the-alphabet teams from the Packers to the Jets. I have their over/under total from TheGreek.com and the total wins I project as well. Enjoy!

  1. Green Bay Packers (Over 8.5 wins -145) (11): I really like the Packers’ schedule. They need to be better defensively, but the offense in Green Bay is legit. I think they are the best team in this division, even with the Vikings signing Brett Favre recently. Green Bay has to win some of those close games they struggled with last year, they will run the ball more efficiently, and make fewer mistakes. Playing the NFC West helps, and a split in their AFC games seems reasonable too. I like GB in the playoffs this season.
  2. Houston Texans (Over 8.5 wins +125) (9): Is this the year the Texans finally make the playoffs? Maybe, but I have them coming up a game or two short. 8.5 definitely seems high for the Texans over/under, but maybe that’s because the books are starting to notice their improvement. Houston needs to stay healthy, but if they can do that, they have plenty of talent to make waves in the AFC South, even with Jacksonville improving upon last season’s failures. This is a very close play for me. 8-9 wins seems right on. But still, I like their heads up chances against most of the NFC West and the AFC East, so I’ll take the over.
  3. Indianapolis Colts (Under 10.5 wins -180) (8): Another close one, because a new coach could take a team either way, but I think the Colts struggle a little during their first year without Coach Dungy. This squad has lost a little of it’s luster, the offensive line is not deep, and they no longer have the option of  two #1 receivers. The Jaguars and Texans will be better this season, and Tennessee is solid. Indy does have the benefit of playing the NFC West, but I still like them to struggle this season. Moving away from the Cover 2 look with a bunch of players selected to play the Cover 2 seems tough. Bob Sanders is still hurting, and that doesn’t help. It’s just a feeling.
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (Over 8.5 wins +130) (10): This team gets better defensively with one more season under the belt of a couple youngsters like Derrick Harvey, Justin Durant, and Reggie Nelson. Also, health along the offensive line is going to be huge for this squad. The addition of the best all around offensive lineman in the draft, Eugen Monroe, won’t hurt either. Torry Holt adds a nice piece for Garrard – a possibly aging, but still solid receiver he’s never really had. Maurice Jones-Drew will get more looks, that’s good too. The bottom line is this, the Jaguars are a good football team. They were decimated by injuries last season, and this year they are healthy and hungry. Good combo.
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (Under 6.5 -165) (5): This team will compete, I like that about them, but a very tough schedule early will make it tough for the Chiefs to build much momentum out of the gates. They will be lucky to win 2 games in their first 7. After their bye week, they play two teams they “could” beat, but they travel to Jacksonville and then Oakland in back to back games, that’s not usually a good thing. I see 6 games at the most, and I like this offense – but moving everything to a 3-4 might be tougher than it looks with this personal.
  6. Miami Dolphins (Over 7.5 +115) (9): The Dolphins were a huge surprise last season, winning the AFC East and garnering the division’s only playoff spot. Chad Pennington outshined the guy he was let go for, and took a playoff spot away from the 11 win Patriots. But still, nobody believes in the Dolphins. I wonder why. This was a team full of youth last season, and those young guys are now a year older. Ronnie Brown should be completely recovered from knee surgery, and he’s one of the more dynamic backs in the league when healthy. They still have Chad, who’s playing for a contract next season, and they resigned some key young defenders this off-season like Channing Crowder and Yeremiah Bell. Jason Taylor may not be the NFL Defensive Player of the year type guy, but he’s back with the Fins and he is still a force on the outside. This team got better. Will they get back in the playoffs? I’m not so sure about that, but they should get over the .500 mark despite a tough schedule (They draw the AFC and NFC South this season, both tough divisions).
  7. Minnesota Vikings (Over 9.5 -105) (10): Does the Brett Favre move jump the Vikings up in my book? Not really. I liked Sage Rosenfels in this offense as a guy that can sling it, so Brett’s addition doesn’t move me one way or another. However, I thought this was a 10-win team without the former Packer, and his presence on the field, being where he wants to be, that might be just enough to move this bet from close to good. The Lions will be better, and the Bears are decent, but I like the Vikings to finish 2nd or 1st in the NFC West. They have a solid defense and a running game that can maul anyone. Percy Harvin is an elite weapon as well. Another big help is EJ Henderson coming back and being healthy, he’s a very good linebacker. This team is much improved, and it’s not because of Brett’s return.
  8. New England Patriots (Under 11.5 wins +120) (11): This one is too close for me to wager on, but I think the Patriots will find 12 wins tough with a pretty darn tough schedule. Like I said already, the Bills and Dolphins both got better this off-season (though I don’t expect much from the Jets). Now, the Patriots did too (Tom Brady coming back), but they have a pretty tough schedule as well. Like the Fins, they go heads up against the AFC and NFC South. This is close though, and they do get an auto win against Denver (I just don’t see Belichick losing to McD), but if I had to go one way on this, I’d give a slight nod toward the under.
  9. New Orleans Saints (Over 8.5 wins -140) (9): I don’t like the Saints, but they’ll be better defensively this coming season. That should get them another win or two. Offensively, I actually think they’ll commit more to the run game, and that will help keep their defense off the field. Is Brees still going to throw the ball all over the field? You bet, but Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will share a backfield that should be pretty productive. They still have a questionable secondary, but there are very winable games out there and I think their luck shifts a bit this coming season.
  10. New York Giants (Over 9.5 wins -140) (11): This is probably the best team in a stacked division. Sure, the Giants don’t have Plaxico Burress, which leaves them without that precious number 1 receiver – and they lost Derrick Ward to the Bucs, but this team is still stacked with talent. Their offensive and defensive lines are elite. I don’t know if I could say any team has a better front line than the Giants. That will win them 10 games right there. They do have the worst highest paid QB in the league running their team, but he’s still a decent option. They play in a tougth division, but they are tough, and should manage double digit wins.
  11. New York Jets (Under 7.5 wins +115) (6): I see 6, maybe the Jets win 7, but I don’t see them getting 8. The Bills should be better this year, and the Dolphins are more talented as well. Kellen Clemens or rookie Mark Sanchez will be at QB, and neither will provide elite QB play this coming season. They have a very underrated offensive line, but I think they’ll lose a lot of close games. I like their new head coach, but I don’t see .500 this year for Ryan and his staff.

Next time I’ll preview the bottom of the alphabet, from Oakland to Washington.