Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview

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Indianapolis Colts (+1) @ Baltimore Ravens Pick & Preview: This spread tells me Vegas thinks these two teams are very close, but Indy is a little better. I agree with that. Peyton Manning is obviously the trump suit in this game, and he’s proven over the years that he’s tough to gamble against.

Despite playing their home games on turf, the Colts have played really well on grass over their last 8 games, going 6-1-1 ATS. However, the Colts haven’t been as good of a cover bet against team’s with winning records, going 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine that qualify. Baltimore has been, consistently, one of the best cover bets in the NFL. They are 19-6 ATS over the last two seasons (including the playoffs). But they haven’t been great against the Colts.

The Colts have covered 5 straight against the Ravens, and they’ve won 6 in a row. Peyton Manning has Baltimore’s number, that’s for sure, not one team has had anywhere close to that much success against one of the best defenses in the league over the lat 10 years. Peyton and company put up 31 points on the Ravens last year, and in 2007 the Colts dumped the Ravens 44-20. Indy has beaten the Ravens in Baltimore three straight times.

The only team with a solid passing attack that Baltimore has beat this year was San Diego – and the Chargers out passed the Ravens by 240 yards. But the Ravens are almost guaranteed to out-rush the Colts, and Baltimore is 5-1 this season when out-rushing their opponent. Who is responsible for that one loss? Tom Brady. Yeah – I’ll take Peyton.

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) Free Football Pick: I know everyone and their mother is going to be on Minnesota, and I know the line has actually gone down from where it opened despite that fact. That’s usually not a good sign. But how can one justify betting money on the Seahawks right now? I know the value is there for them, they aren’t the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Browns or Bucs and they are getting double digit points – that, in and of itself, has value. But when risk is greater than value it’s either a no bet or a pick for the home favorites. Since no-bets aren’t a part of my daily grind, I’m going to go ahead and go for the latter.

Forget history, because this is Brett Favre’s Vikings team, and this is his first year running this show. Forget that this is Seattle’s biggest underdog spread all year long, because this is the best team the Hawks have played all year long. Also, Seattle has been a big dog (9 points or more) three times this season. What’s their record in those 3 games? 0-3 straight up and against the spread. They were beaten by 11 in Arizona last week despite going up 14-0 in the first quarter. They were beaten by 21 in Dallas. And the Colts slapped them around by 17 in Indy as a 10 point favorite.

Could the Vikings have a let down? Sure. It’s possible. And the Vikings have shown some open alleys in that secondary. But should Seattle be able to give Matt Hasselbeck the time he needs with that offensive line against that defensive front? Should the most physical running back in the NFL have trouble against a defense that really struggles to tackle physical runners? Should Brett Favre give the Hawks a pity win like he gave Michael Strahan a pity sack back in the day? That answer is NO! To all those questions.

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys Football Pick

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Washington Redskins (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys Football Pick: Wow, you know a line is off when 53% of the public is taking everyone’s most disappointing team of the season to cover against the Dallas Cowboys – America’s team – winners of 4 of their last 5 including big Ws over Philadelphia and Atlanta. Right? I wasn’t sure where this line would go when I picked it up earlier in the week, but I sure saw a lot of value in the Washington Redskins, and that’s not something I catch myself seeing too often.

Despite all the Redskins’ failures, they’ve played in their fair share of close games this season. Sure, everyone has thrown someone in Redskin garb under the bus at some point this season, and nobody has more tire marks, foot prints, and ripped threads than head coach, Jim Zorn, but the Skins haven’t been as terrible as many think. They’ve lost by more than 10 points once all year. Once. And they haven’t played a tomato-can exclusive schedule (the Giants, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons, and Broncos are all on there), and only the Falcons beat the Skins by more than 10. Besides the Eagles and Falcons, nobody else has beaten Washington by double digits.

Six times so far this season, the Redskins have allowed 20 points or less, and the offense hasn’t done the defense any favors. Just imagine how good the Redskins D really is considering how much they have to be on the field. With the Cowboys line dinged up and Dallas coming off a stinker, I like this game to stay with-in double digits.

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) @ St. Louis Rams NFL Free Pick: The Rams have been very good lately running the ball. Steven Jackson has seemingly stacked each and every one of his teammates on his bulky shoulders, and carried them to some solid performances over the last couple weeks.

After carrying the entire load and getting the Rams their first win of the season two weeks ago in Detroit (probably counts as a half win), the entire Rams team, not just Steven Jackson (though he performed like a beast) took it to the Saints last Sunday. While they were never ahead in the game, it was tied at 14 at the half. And in the end, the Rams were driving to get that go-ahead score they needed to end the Saints run at undefeated. This is the Rams we’re talking about, so obviously it didn’t work, but there’s reason to believe that Steve Spagnola could be turning this franchise around. Even Marc Bulger’s ghost got into the act, throwing for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns as he moved the team down the field. Of course, Jackson’s 131 rushing yards, 9 catches for 45 yards, and 1 rushing touchdown helped too.

But the Cardinals are stout against the run. They’ve played awesome football on the road this season. This is Kurt Warner going up against the team that gave up on him, replacing him with a clown name Marc Bulger, despite Warner’s MVP’s and NFL Championship Trophy. Kurt’s the kind of guy his teammates rally around, and you can bet he’ll be demanding perfection this week. I think Beanie Wells has another big game for the Cardinals, and that will make all the difference.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Pick: The Saints haven’t played well over the last few weeks, the Buccaneers have been pretty solid considering how pathetic they were to start the season. Those two things have to even out, I mean, the Saints are really good and the Bucs aren’t. Josh Freeman can’t be as polished as he’s looked in his first two games starting, and Drew Brees has to torch a Bucs secondary that hasn’t been beaten much in the past couple games.

Teams with solid pass blocking and good quarterbacks have destroyed the Bucs this year. New England, Philadelphia, the Giants, and Dallas all beat the Bucs by 13 ore more points. But the Bucs have been good since Josh Freeman took over, and the scores have reflected that. After beating the Packers in what seemed like a fluke, the Bucs almost put another big upset together, falling just short of beating the Dolphins in Miami.

But like I said above, that kind of stuff has to fall off one of these weeks. And while the Saints have managed to stay undefeated despite less than stellar performances over the last 3 weeks, you’d think their close calls in 4 straight would keep them focused enough against a team like Tampa Bay.

It’s not the Saints offense that gets me most excited about New Orleans chances at covering this spread, but the way their defense can pick on arrant passes. The Bucs don’t have a dominate rushing attack like the last 4 teams New Orleans has struggled with, I think that’s the main reason I’m taking the Saints here.

New York Jets vs New England Patriots Pick & Preview

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New York Jets (+11) @ New England Patriots Pick & Preview: I’m a firm believer that you don’t give a good team double digits and cover the spread very often. I know that if anyone can do it, it’s a pissed off Patriots team that is looking to take the heat of their coach’s back, a team that saw the Jets out-play, out-work, and out-physical them earlier in the year when New York upset the Pats. But just because I know the Patriots have it in them doesn’t mean I’m going to bet the way of the Pats – the value is too good on New York, and it’s not like their heads are swollen from playing too good over the last few weeks. After coming back to reality after a hot start, I know the Jets will be fully prepared for what New England has to offer this Sunday Afternoon.

First and foremost, the Jets have a cat that matches up pretty well with Randy Moss, that, in and of itself, is something most teams can only dream about. Darrelle Revis was tough on Randy in the first game, and while I don’t expect Moss to struggle to make plays as much this time around, I do expect him to be held under his season averages.

Next, the Jets have a solid offensive line and a rushing attack that eats clock and should force the Patriots to pay extra attention to the run. I think Mark Sanchez, though he’s struggled at times, has the big game flare in his blood, and he’ll make some nice plays to keep this one close. 11 is too many. I’ll take them points!

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Pick

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New York Giants (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: The Giants just keep getting the job done. It’s not as under the radar as it has been, but for being in New York, having the highest paid quarterback in the league, beating everyone in their path, and all that other stuff, they don’t get nearly as much love as say the Patriots, or even the Saints for that matter. The Saints have been solid, no doubt about it, but they have yet to show me they are the top team in the league, while New York has proven to be in that conversation over and over. The Saints offense has really struggled against top ranked defenses, and if not for some touchdown production on special teams and defense, I don’t think they’d be undefeated. Now their defense has played much better, definitely, and they’ve shown me a lot of guts this season when things aren’t going perfectly their way, but they haven’t played an all around solid team like New York yet. I know the Saints have had two weeks to prepare, but in a way, so have the Giants – last week they played Oakland. I like the Giants to run the ball on the Saints, something New Orleans hasn’t had done to them so far this year, and that should be the difference in this close game. The Giants play well on the road, losing just twice on the road last season, going 6-2 ATS away from home. I’ll take the Giants and the field goal in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings Football Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: This is one of the biggest games of the week, two teams that have played extremely well to start the season. The Ravens come in 3-2 (after losing in the final seconds to the Bengals a week after losing to the Patriots in New England) while Minnesota has walked through a relatively weak schedule all the way to 5-0 (Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis hardly belong in the NFL). And yes, the Brett Favre experiment seems to be working just fine. The decent teams Minnesota has faced kept things close, as Brett Favre needed his miracle toss with a second left to beat the 49ers, and Green Bay’s late rally fell short despite shutting down Adrian Peterson and that feared Viking rushing attack. The Ravens haven’t been as stingy on defense, and Joe Flacco has struggled a bit in the last two contests, but you’d have to say Baltimore is easily the Vikings’ toughest task yet. With that being what it is, I’m taking the Ravens here. The 49ers and Ravens are very similar teams, the difference being Baltimore should be healthier than San Fran was in their game against the Vikings. The 49ers should have won that game, and Baltimore should win this game. We’ll see if Should turns into a win this time.

Free Week 4 NFL Predictions

Well, if I would have just asked the public who to take last week in my free NFL predictions I would have ended up way ahead – that’s for sure. As far as I can see, the public went 12-4 last week. That’s a good day for the people and a bad day for the books, but don’t you worry, they books will be back to get theirs. I’m not sure that will happen this week, but it will happen in good time. As it turns out, I’m going against the public in 9 of 16 contests, that sounds good enough. Here’s how I see the games going in Week 4.

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Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10): Believe it or not Joe Public is loving the Detroit Lions in this one. How much? Well, after the public has spent much of the last few years running away from the Lions like the Road Runner from Wiley Coyote, 61% of the bunch likes Detroit this week. That might be giving them a little too much credit huh? I mean, it took them 20 games to win once over the last year plus. The Bears are a good football team, despite their early struggles – they sit at 2-1 with at least one very good win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game is in Chicago, and Detroit’s secondary shouldn’t have an easy time with Jay Cutler, even if Jay is locking in on his receivers. Detroit has covered in 4 of the last 5 contests in this match-up, but I like the Bears in this one. 10 seems like a lot for a Bears team that has yet to play a game decided by more than 6 points this year, but like I said, I like them to have their way with the Lions.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns: The Bengals beat the Browns, that’s the way it has gone in 7 of the last 9 games between these two franchises. But history shmistery, I have better reasons for taking Cincinnati. One, the Bengals are actually good. Now the public apparently knows this as the game started out with the Bengals favored by jut 3.5, but the spread has shot up 2 full points already. I imagine it gets to 6, maybe 6.5 by Sunday. I think Vegas just put this spread out way too low, thinking the public still things the Bengals are the Bungles. Now don’t get me wrong, Cincinnati has proven over the years that they are always ready to take a step back into the Bungle past, but I don’t think it’s this week. Unlike year’s past, the Bengals are committed to the run these days. Cedric Benson may not be flashy, but he gets the job done, and I expect that to especially be the case against the Browns. The Brownies have been outrushed by 339 yards over the first three games. You can go ahead and do the math on that one, yes, lots of yards per game. I don’t know what Eric Man-Jina has done to this defense but they weren’t this bad against the run last year. They did have to play Baltimore and Minnesota in 2 of their first 3, but Denver outrushed the Browns by 132 yards. I think the Bengals kill in this one, but so does the public, 77% of them… ugh.

Oakland Raiders (+9) @ Houston Texans: This game has moved up to 9.5 and even 10 on some books, as 54% of the bets are still coming in on the Texans despite seeing the spread move 1.5 points in the Raiders’ favor. Listen, I like the Texans and I think Al Davis is the designer and carrier of all major diseases, but the Raiders shouldn’t be a two score underdog in Houston. Houston’s rushing attack hasn’t been good enough, but even if it is better against the Raiders, I know their rush defense won’t be. If you can’t stop a running team from running, it’s very hard to win by 10 points. You look at Houston’s past and you’ll see how rare it is that they kill an opponent. That’s because if you can’t stop the run, you rarely win big. I think the Raiders run the ball well here, keeping it close if nothing else.

Seattle Seahawks (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: Like the Texans, the Colts can play in their fair share of close games as well. Now I don’t expect them to lose, but Seattle is going to run the ball, and they’re going to do it successfully. Seattle has also shown, with the exception of Frank Gore, an ability to stop the run. Now Peyton should pick the Hawks secondary apart, no doubt, but if Seneca can stay mistake free I think it will be very difficult for the Colts to win by more than 10 points. Again, you look at it historically and you’ll see it’s pretty rare. Don’t believe me? The Colts always win big? Try this: Indianapolis won 11 games last season, how many of them were by more than 10 points? You didn’t guess it, the answer is two. The Hawks are full of injuries, no doubt, but they get healthier on the offensive line this week, or so I’ve been reading, and I think that helps their covering cause.

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Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: 70% like Tennessee here. This is a very tough one for me, but in the end I’m with them. I would like to preface my selection with this: if the Titans weren’t 0-3 I would be taking the Jaguars here for sure. I think Jacksonville should find some openings in the Titan secondary, and MJD will probably have a decent day despite Tennessee’s stellar run defense. But the Titans can’t go 0-4. Nope, I don’t see it. This is not a losing team. Chris Johnson will have a big day, and LenDale White will have his best game of the year, scoring a touchdown or two as the Titans pull it off by a touchdown. I don’t think either of these teams is bad enough to be 1-3, but both will be after this weekend.

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs (+9): The Giants have beaten the Chiefs by 10 or more points every time these two teams have played since 1998. Now that doesn’t mean much to me, I’m just saying so you know. The Giants can really run the ball, the Chiefs can’t stop the run. The Giants take full advantage of the passes they do attempt, the Chiefs shoot themselves in the foot with penalties like it’s their job. The Chiefs struggle with pressure put on them by opposing defenses, the Giants can make life hell on most quarterbacks while rushing just four guys. Now, I wanted to let you know all that stuff before I told you this: I’m taking the Chiefs (+9). Call me nuts, it wouldn’t be the first time, but I like the Chiefs to cover. KC isn’t as bad as the Bucs have been, and I’d say they are better than the Redskins. The Giants should have gotten beat by the Cowboys and they couldn’t put the finishing touches on the Redskins despite dominating that game. Everyone and their mother likes the Giants in this one, I think 9 is too many in Kansas City. There it is.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-1.5): The Ravens are a very good team, I just don’t think they match up well against the Patriots. Tom Brady and company should, like other teams the Ravens have played this year, find room to throw on Baltimore’s secondary. And they throw a lot. I don’t think the Patriots have a great defense, but they are the best unit Baltimore has gone against so far this year. KC, San Diego, and Cleveland aren’t going to scare anyone. I think the Patriots started to figure it out late last week against the Falcons, and that continues here. Baltimore has had trouble with prolific passing attacks in the past, and I think that historical norm continues this weekend. The Patriots favored by just a couple at home is good enough for me! As many of you know, I make my picks then check the public numbers, and I’m always excited to be surprised. How the public has forgotten about the Patriots, 57% like the road Ravens in this one. Crazy. That always makes me feel good.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7): Well, I took the Redskins last week, so I have to take them here, at home, against a Bucs team that basically told the world that they are building for the future by benching Byron Leftwich, their starting quarterback that played pretty damn well to start the season. I’ve decided I’d rather take a talented team that doesn’t respect their head coach over a team that has already accepted losing all season long. Tough call, but that’s the direction I’m going. Haynesworth should be playing well this week, he’s listed as probably but said to be healthy, and if that’s the case I think the Redskins do a good job of shutting down the Bucs running game. They’ll have 8 in the box all game long, and I don’t think Josh Johnson in his first career start will torch the Redskins. Jason Campbell has looked decent to me, but the Redskins need to run the ball. I think they will, and that should give them a double digit win.

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Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): The Dolphins have a great running game that will be used even more extensively now that their starting QB is out. Now that defenses will have to prepare for a quarterback with a strong arm, I think the Dolphins will be tougher stack up against. With elite speed like Ted Ginn Jr.’s and a QB that can make all the throws, I can see the Dolphins getting some big play action plays going here. All Chad Henne has to do is not throw interceptions, and I really like the Dolphins chances – if he does get pick happy, I’m in trouble with this one. This game is close to a toss up for me, and both teams have a lot to play for in a very tough division – but I’ll take the home team and a running game that has really impressed me.

New York Jets (+7) @ New Orleans Saints: I like the Jets. Their defense is better than the Saints, they have great balance on offense, and the Saints didn’t play all that well last week despite winning 27-7 against Buffalo: it was 10-7 Saints in the 4th quarter. The Jets have a great secondary, the best the Saints will see this season. I just think the Jets are the better team, so +7 is way too big for me to think any other way.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Denver Broncos: I think Dallas is a little overrated, but I also think Tony Romo has played poorly to start the season despite being very good. This Dallas team will win a lot of games, and should move to 3-1 with relative ease against the Broncos this week. Now Denver has been solid, and they are a decent team, no doubt, but getting some luck to beat Cincinnati, then methodically galloping through Cleveland and Oakland isn’t the same as matching up well with the Cowboys. The Broncos have used their rushing attack a lot over the last couple weeks, outrushing Oakland and Cleveland by 252 yards – but that won’t happen against Dallas. No-no. Kyle Orton will have to beat the Cowboys, and despite Orton’s winning ways during his tenure as a starter in this league, rarely does his team play well when he has to win with his arm. A road game for the Cowboys, but they’ll be hurting if they fall to 2-2 in the NFC East. I think they play very well in Denver and while the game will be closer than a lot of people think, I still think Dallas wins by a touchdown.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5): The 49ers are as good as they’ve shown. They have a stout defense that brings it every play. They have elite players in the secondary, in the line backing crew, and on the defensive line. They have an offense that pounds it until opposing defenses can’t take it anymore. The only reason I’d take the Rams here is because they actually have a chance now that Marc Bulger is out. I think last week’s last second loss puts some piss and vinegar into the 49ers this week. They should be 3-0 if black magic didn’t strike them dead in Week 3. St. Louis is still the worst team in football, even with Bulger finally on the sidelines. This win would make San Francisco undefeated against the entire NFC West to start the season, and I know Mike Singletary will have made that an emphasis for this playoff bound 49ers squad. Now the 49ers aren’t going to win a lot of games by double digits, but they’re not going to play the Rams very often, either. Take them here, despite the high spread.

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San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5): Even the Steelers can run the ball against San Diego’s defense. Now Pittsburgh has played pretty poorly to start the season, never being able to finish, and lucking out to have just one win thus far (they should have lost to the Titans). But they’ll play better in this one. THe Chargers aren’t good defensively, and I don’t think they run with any success in Pittsburgh. I don’t think the world of the Steelers but doubt they drop to 1-3 to start the season, not with all that open room to accrue yardage against the Chargers defense. How does San Diego’s 24-20 win over Oakland look right now? How about their 10 point win against Miami when they were down 6-3 after Chad Pennington went down? Listen, neither of these teams is as good as everyone thought heading into the season, but Pittsburgh is still the better team. I like the over here a lot as well, but since I only take sides, I’ll just say I’m leaning on the over. Many big plays in this one, Steelers by 10 at home on Sunday Night Football.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): The Vikings are the better team. Defensively, offensively, probably in special teams as well. Green Bay has been pretty mediocre to start the season, both through the air and on the ground. Minnesota has done both well. Now, if you read my picks weekly, you’ll know that I usually bet against a team that I thought should have lost last week. The Vikings should have lost. Nobody throws a 40 yard laser to the back of the end zone with 2 seconds left to win the game – nobody besides Brett Favre and Steve Young. Brett did it last week to the Niners, and some years ago Steve did it to Brett’s defense in Green Bay. I love Brett’s competitive spirit too much to see him losing to his old team. Since Green Bay didn’t want him back, he’s been aiming to beat his old squad. He gets his chance for the first time this Monday Night, I’ll forget what I usually do and I’ll take the Vikings by a touchdown in this one.

Last Minute Fantasy Football: Projections by Ryan

This season is going to be crazy in Fantasy Football. How crazy? These things are going to happen. Some say they are a little bold, a couple guys’ say they are just plain nuts, but when all these “crazy” predictions come true remember who was behind these pre-season projections. I’ve got one for every single team in the league, that’s 32 chances at brilliance. The season start’s Thursday, and it won’t take long to see I’m onto something good.

1. Lee Evans out scores TO.

2. Ted Ginn Jr. gets 80 catches, 1100 yards, and 8 TD’s.

3. Laurence Maroney leads the Pats in rushing TD’s and rushing yards.

4. Mark Sanchez throws more INT’s than TD’s.

5. Joe Flacco throws 20+ TD’s.

6. Carson Palmer is a Top 10 QB.

7. Braylon Edwards remembers he is a freak of nature and looks more like the 2007 Braylon with 90 catches for 1300 yards and 12 TD’s.

8. Santonio Holmes leads the Steelers in receiving yards.

9. Matt Schaub finishes the season playing in every game and a Top 5 QB.

10. Joseph Addai finishes the season with more than 600 yards and 6 TD’s ahead of Donald Brown.

11. Tory Holt grabs 11 TD’s

12. Vince Young starts more games than Kerry Collins

13. Eddie Royal finishes the season with more catches, yards, and TD’s than Brandon Marshall.

14. Larry Johnson rushes for 1200 yards and 10 TD’s.

15. Darrius Heyward-Bay shocks everyone but me and halls in 60 catches for 900 yards and 6 TD’s.

16. LT has one great season left in him and goes off for 1800 total yards and 15 TD’s.

17. Tony Romo finishes the season outside the Top 15 QB’s.

18. Brandon Jacobs plays in less than half the Giants games.

19. Mike Vick starts at least 3 games for the Eagles.

20. Beanie Wells leads all rookie RB’s in rushing yards and TD’s.

21. Steven Jackson finally stays healthy for 16 games and is a top 3 RB.

22. Michael Crabtree signs by week 3 in San Fran, catches 65 balls for 800 yards and 6 TD’s.

23. Julius Jones rushes for more than 800 yards and 8 TD’s.

24. Jason Cambell throws 26 TD’s and less than 10 INT’s.

25. Jay Cutler throws more INT’s than TD’s.

26. Kevin Smith puts up another solid year in Detroit with 1400 total yards 60 catches and 10 TD’s.

27. Ryan Grant breaks out for 1400 yards rushing and 12 TD’s.

28. Adrian Peterson rushes for 2100 yards and 16 TD’s.

29. Tony Gonzalez catches less than 6 TD’s

30. DeAngelo Williams doesn’t share as many carries, as “The Daily Show” struggles to stay healthy, and puts up better numbers than 2008.

31. Reggie Bush plays in 14 games and outscores Pierre Thomas.

32. TB starts 3 QB’s during the year and they are all bad.