NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 5

7-5-1 heading into Monday Night, I locked down yet another winning week.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5)Baltimore Ravens: (WINNER) “The Ravens won’t be able to throw. Short rest against a super physical team after already being warn down – you bet I’ll be taking the Titans by a field goal – and I’ll love it all week long.” Well, I loved it all week long but it started to get more and more worrisome as Sunday began to eclipse – but in the end, that field goal I needed the Titans to cover came through as Tennessee had one more score at the end of the game to pull me up 3. Whew.

Seattle Seahawks (+9)New York Giants: (LOSER) Washington State sports = no thanks. I don’t know what’s happened to the Hawks, but they’ll need to do a lot more than beat some random bad team in the NFC to get my full confidence again – I should have known. Sorry for leading you astray on this butt kicking, the Hawks lost by a million it seemed like. 44-6 = one million in football speak.

Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia Eagles (-5): (LOSER) I think this one is close – and while the Redskins as a 5 point dog always seem to have good value, I will have to go with the home team eagles this week. Philly will shut down the rushing attack from Washington, and that will put a lot of pressure on Jason Campbell.” Okay, the Eagles did put some pressure on Campbell to start the game, but their run defense that had been stellar was torched by Clinton Portis. Portis was in full beast mode, showing hulk strength, busting tackles and basically carrying the Redskins to victory. The Eagles were up early and I was smiling, but Philly didn’t do anything offensively, and the Redskins took full advantage. Washington is really impressing me.

San Diego Chargers (-6)Miami Dolphins: (LOSER) “I seem to be the only “expert” taking the Chargers this weekend, and I can see why the Dolphins are looking like a good value at home – but I have a feeling the Chargers will get a lot out of their rushing attack this week, and I don’t think you see the Fin running backs doing work like they did last week. Tough call here, certainly, but at just under a touchdown I’ll take the road favorites here.” Soooo… Haha, apparently the “experts” slapped me around on this one. San Diego came out a little stale, and Miami showed a couple folks that their win over New England wasn’t as flukey as it seemed. Can Sparano and Parcells really give this bad of a team this much confidence? It seems like it. I was DEAD WRONG about this one, and even though I thought it’d be close, the Dolphins are just much more physical than I thought. I don’t think they’ll sleep on anyone else this season, but they’ll continue to be a tough out.

Chicago Bears (-3.5)Detroit Lions: (WINNER) 34-7… It doesn’t pay to be a Lion fan right now. And don’t get me wrong, it rarely has. The Bears embarrassed the Lions in all aspects of the game, making me look smart with my road favorite pick here.

Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay Packers (-7): (LOSER) Well, Aaron Rodgers played, had a pretty damn good game, and the Packers still go to 2-3 on the season, tallying up their 3rd loss in as many contests. It looks like these young teams with new coaches are doing something right these days – maybe a couple of these franchises (Miami, Atlanta, Washington) are turning the corner. I definitely like what I see from Matt Ryan and the young Falcons – going into Green Bay and man-handling the Packers up front is big step forward.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans: (WINNER) “This is a very tough one for me, but I don’t see Indy coming off a bye and losing to a Texans team to go 1-3 on the season. I’m talking pure will to win here.” What else could you call what happened on Sunday in Houston? Will to win. The Colts snuck out another one, and while they could easily be 0-4, they’re through the first quarter of the season at 2-2. Houston will get it together, but they’ll have a tough couple days thinking about this one getting away. I lucked out with this cover. Houston dominated the Colts for much of this game. 21 points in 4 minutes got me a one point win – you don’t want much of that business going on here, not unless heart failure is your ideal way to go.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-9.5): (WINNER) “The Chiefs won’t be able to run on Carolina like they did on Denver. That ruins their chances at a victory right there.” Larry Johnson, the AFC’s leading rusher coming in, had 2 yards on 7 carries and the Panthers shutout the Chiefs in dominating fashion. Got this one right on the button.

Tampa Bay BuccaneersDenver Broncos (-3): (PUSH) “This one is very tough for me. I know the Bucs are one of the more underrated football teams in the game, and Denver’s explosion as an offensive masterpiece teaming with a terrible defensive front, has their value at an all time low – but I like the Broncos in a gut-feeling type situation.” Well, it was close, and the gut-feeling had some kind of feeling going on. In the end this low scoring affair ended with Splinter’s Broncos up 3 and pushing me to a tie.

Buffalo BillsArizona Cardinals (pk): (WINNER)  “I’m taking the Cardinals here, and with or without Anquan Boldin I’ll be sticking with it. I think the Bills are ready for a loss and I think the Cardinals (at home) are better than the Bills (on the road). The highs and lows will even out with a nice comfortable Cardinal win on Sunday.” Well, the highs and lows definitely evened out. It didn’t hurt that Trent Edwards went down early with a concussion, and even though Losman looked good throwing the ball a couple times, his turnover prone quarterbacking meant the end for Buffalo. Arizona played well, stuffing the run pretty good and constantly attacking on offense. All in all, I was right. Ha,

New England Patriots (-3)San Francisco 49ers: (WINNER)  “I’m not good for or against Mike Martz. Let’s make that clear. Over his years, where ever he goes, I have trouble reading his teams. That’s my precursor warning here. Another warning, most of the public (almost 70% at the books I watch) is rolling with the Patriots on this one, and some respectable “experts” are taking the 49ers as a good value to cover at home. So there you have it, you’ve been warned. Now here’s the kicker, I love the Patriots in this one. The 49ers aren’t good, and they don’t do what would help them most in this game, run the ball. A bunch of really competitive hard workers were made a laughing stock in Week 3 as the Patriots D got their aces handed to them by Ronnie Brown and company. That won’t go over well, and after two weeks to dwell on that kind of business I think the Pats come out and wallop the 49ers – I love them in Week 5. So, you’ve been warned and I’ve predicted an outcome that mocks experts and my Mike Martz struggle. If you’re with me on this one, you’re seeing the Pats winning by a couple touchdowns in San Francisco.” (YEP) – The 49ers had a chance if they gave Frank Gore about 15 more carries – as it turned out, they just threw the ball a lot and put up their fair share of turnovers. That will lose you any game against the Pats. Yay me, boo Mike Martz!

Cincinnati Bengals (+17.5)Dallas Cowboys: (WINNER) This one was close, once again proving that even bad teams in the NFL shouldn’t be underdogs by 17 points. Ridiculous. The Bengals were even tougher than the final score insists, as a late touchdown put the Cowboys up 9, and before that Carson Palmer and company were a two point conversion away from tying this thing late in the 4th. Good value, good win, this one made me a sure thing winner in Week 5.

Pittsburgh SteelersJacksonville Jaguars (-4): (LOSER) The final score was close, and Jacksonville was up one late in the game, but the Steelers really came out fired up for this one, out-toughing the Jaguars from the get go. Pittsburgh is an interesting team that I’m not reading real well, no question about that. Their run-defense played inspired football handing me my 6th loss on the week.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)New Orleans Saints: I won this game, and I have to say, despite losing the yardage battle, and feeling that I was going to lose the game all night, and watching Drew Brees pass at will, I was really happy when Martin Gramatica came in to put the Saints up three. That basically gives me a win. This was definitely and interesting one, and I’m not sure I picked the right side on this game, but I did come out on top, bringing me to 8-5-1 on the week, three more games over .500. I’ll take a win any way I can get it.

NFL Pre-Season Free Picks Review: Week 3

After 3 weeks of pre-season football I’m 7-4-1. Week 3 was my first losing week of the season as I finished 2-3 with a little bad luck from my friends. This is what Week 3 looked like…

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-3):Kyle Orton and Reshied Davis were dealing early, and I thought I was in good position to take this one with the Bears up going into the 2nd quarter. But, Rexxy Grossman let me down again – weird. J.T. O’Sullivan and his rocket cannon arm tore up the Bears secondary, and that secondary doesn’t look promising for the season. Alex Smith even tossed a touchdown in the 2nd half, and basically beat me. Yes, Alex Smith beat me. Ugh. One game, one loss…

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: Vince Young was brutal, Chris Johnson didn’t break one, and even Kerry Collins was 1 for 8 – maybe the Falcons aren’t as bad as everyone thinks they are? Hmm… That might be something to keep in mind to start this season. Matt Ryan looked confident and accurate against a solid TItans defense, completing 15 of 21 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown pass to fellow rookie Harry Douglas. That right there was enough to oust the Titans as Tennessee managed just 3 points all night. This was a big miss.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: Bet against the Pats when they don’t have Tom Brady – I don’t care if it’s the pre-season, regular season, or off-season – without Tom they lose a lot of their luster. The Eagles looked solid against that old Pats defense, but don’t worry Pats fans, this is just the pre-season  – I’m sure Big Bill will get the damn thing figured out. A win for me!

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): Just in, the Jaguars are going to be good. Garrard was accurate an efficient, and the Jags defense really made life hard for Jeff Garcia and the Bucs. Garcia did play and he threw 2 interceptions in his limited work. My 2nd big miss gave me my third loss of the week, making sure that I’d be under .500 for the first time this year.

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: “Boy oh boy the Bengals have looked bad. And it’s not just their running game, Carson Palmer has been inconsistent and timid in the pocket. I think the Saints will dominate this game against a confused Bengals club.” Neither of these offenses looked deadly, but the Bengals were downright pathetic. They didn’t score a once, against the freaking Saints – it’s not looking good in Cinci. Back to the Bungles! This was an easy win that I really needed this week.

NFL Free Picks Review: Pre-Season Week 2

So, I’m no longer perfect, but I still took 2 of 3 this weekend, bringing my record to 5-1-1 to start the pre-season. Here’s how the dingo went down under.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

“Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing.” This game finished at 36. That’s not so bad, except for the fact that I am now just 2 points away from being undefeated during the pre-season. That’s because I ended up winning the last two games of the weekend. There was one play in this game that basically sealed my fate. The Broncos were up 14-10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter when they put together a drive and managed to get down to the 1 with 6 minutes and change left to play. A touchdown brings the total to 31 and my cover is well within range headed into the 4th quarter. Instead, the Broncos took the safe play and kicked a field goal to go up 10. Thats where the total got so far away. So, not only was I 2 points away from winning this total, but I was a single yard away from it. Damn numbers! I guess everyone needs to lose sometime – I just thought this was my Patriot-undefeated-year. So much for that; I couldn’t even make it out of the pre-season.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

As I write this the Bucs are up 27-10 and just breaking into New England territory with about 5 minutes to play. Yes, its sport and anything can happen but I’m willing to chalk this one up as a win. The Patriots still don’t care to win pre-season games and will settle for winning the majority (or all) of games that count. Weird. Still, the Bucs looked good behind solid quarterbacking (19-25 as a group right now) and effective running. The Bucs have a good offensive line and an even better O-line coach. They have multiple runners with talent, and a bunch of receivers trying to make this team. They are a good bet in the pre-season, as shown once again. I win again!

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

“The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest.. …even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend.” What do you know? The Lions take one from a Bengals team that looked uninterested. Carson Palmer looked off again and not even Chris Perry could impress me. On the other hand, Jon Kitna had a flawless drive and Drew Stanton had a couple nice throws while Calvin Johnson looked like the awesome prospect he is. Marinelli likes to win, even in the pre-season. Remember that.

2-1 this week! 5-1-1 on the pre-season! Check in to see if I can’t keep it going next week.

Fantasy Football: Tiered Receiver Rankings

Here are my *TOP 60 Wide Receivers. Naturally, I’m not giving you a cookie cutter rankings list, but I do have some reasoning behind the sanity, and if it’s good enough for the girl you go with, it should do for you too. Enjoy my tiered rankings. I’ve written a few words about the first 5 tiers – the rest are just listed without all the verbiage.

I

  1. Randy Moss
  2. Terrell Owens

Yes – despite the hype and the excitement of youth, these two touchdown driven pass catching personalities are bound to be at the top come December. Randy and Owens are certainly in a league of their own. Reggie Wayne is close and Fitzgerald might be getting there, but right now there are two guys in the 1st tier. Randy is definitely #1, and while I don’t expect a repeat of last years’ numbers, I still believe him to be the best receiving option in the game.

II

  1. Reggie Wayne
  2. Chad Johnson
  3. Larry Fitzgerald
  4. Marques Colston
  5. Braylon Edwards
  6. Steve Smith
  7. Andre Johnson
  8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
  9. Torry Holt

This is a tier in which all receivers have been absolute studs before, and should be studs again. Last season Reggie, Larry Fitz, T.J., Edwards, Chad Johnson, and Colston all finished within 20 points of each other, and ranked between 2nd and 9th overall amongst WRs in point per reception leagues. Braylon really broke out in 2007, and while there’s a chance he’s just a one-year wonder, I’ll take my chances on the super-athletic touchdown scoring monster of a receiver. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, after a couple of years falling just short of 1000 yards, has back to back 1000+ campaigns and is coming off his best season yet. Marques Colston has two very successful years under his belt, and while many thought he struggled to start the ’07 season, Colston came on fast and managed 98 catches for 1200 yards and 11 scores. He’s a beast. This is his 3rd year in the league and you all know what that means. Chad Johnson is the least consistent of these guys, on a game to game basis, but he is dynamite consistent on a year to year basis. 87+ catches, 1270+ yards, and 7+ TD’s in 5 straight seasons. He is getting a bad rap this year, but that just means he’s a better value for you. Torry Holt is the only one in this group that is quite possibly over the hill, but watch him play, he’s always wide open. Plus, the Rams offense has to be better this season, and he’ll be a large part of that upgrade. Steve Smith is the most dynamic of this group, but he’s missing 2 games to start the season and he got busted up with a concussion in pre-season game 1. Still, with Delhomme tossing the ball and a nice running game building in Carolina, Steve Smith should be one of the best receivers in the game. Get him at a nice value and bring in the money. Anybody in this field is good, so don’t break your bank to grab your favorite of the bunch – there’s a lot of depth at the top of the receiver rankings. As for Andre Johnson, well what can I say except that I dig this cat. He’s got all the ability to be one of the game’s best. He’s fast and he’s a beast. However, he might be prone to injuries because he’s so much of a physical freak. Still, in 10 games alone he’s probably worth a pick in this tier. If he’s healthy, you hit the jackpot!

III

  1. Anquan Boldin
  2. Roy Williams
  3. Wes Welker
  4. Brandon Marshall
  5. Plaxico Burress
  6. Calvin Johnson
  7. Santonio Holmes
  8. Greg Jennings

Boldin is a beast, and while he has a bit of Donovan McNabb disease (great production when he plays, but he isn’t always playing) he’s still a nice grab. He’s a quarterback’s best friend because he’s tough and holds onto the ball in the middle. Roy Williams, believe it or not, was on pace to nearly match his impressive 2006 numbers before he got knocked out in the teams 12th game of the season. He won’t lose touches with Martz gone, McDonald will, Furrey will, Calving and Roy won’t. I expect big things from him. Wes Welker was given a huge contract by the Patriots before any of this amazing season stuff. That means they knew what they were getting. Many don’t expect a repeat from Welker. Me neither… I expect better numbers this season. Marshall is a little immature and hot-headed, is that weird? Not for receivers. He’s still a stud. He’ll be gone for what looks like 2 games, but I expect great things from Cutler this year, and Marshall will be a huge part of that. Plaxico – I don’t know, he’ll probably get hurt or ride out his ankle problems. I don’t like Giants this season, but Plax is a touchdown machine. He’s big, fast, and has good hands. He’ll produce if healthy. I love Calvin Johnson, and would put him higher, but he hasn’t done much to deserve a better ranking. Still, his upside is amazing, and I still say he’s the best receiving prospect ever. A lot of people are sky high on Holmes, but I still think he’s too streaky. I think the Steelers will run a lot more this year, and the ball will spread out a little more. Holmes is a nice pick, and he fits in this tier, but those that have him in the Top 10 are ranking him too high. Greg Jennings is a touchdown scoring machine. With Favre out of GB, I still expect big things from this tough runner. His hands are soft and he can really take some contact and stay on his feet. I like him to match last years’ numbers.

IV

  1. Jericho Cotchery
  2. Roddy White
  3. Dwayne Bowe
  4. Marvin Harrison
  5. Lee Evans
  6. Laveranues Coles
  7. Santana Moss
  8. Donald Driver
  9. Bernard Berrian
  10. Chris Chambers
  11. Nate Burleson

Cotchery will have a very nice season with Brett throwing him the ball. Jericho catches everything thrown his way, and it’ll be nice for him to get some down field chances. I think he’ll become Brett’s favorite target. Roddy White was not a fluke. I watch him play and I see a big strong target with all the speed you need. The Falcons will be better and White won’t disappoint. Bowe is a great young receiver, but I can’t rank him much higher than this in that KC offense with question marks at quarterback. Still, he’ll be a nice starting option. Marvin Harrison could be back to his old self, in which case he’ll be a steal. Still, Manning is fighting knee troubles and Wayne is the man in Indy. I wouldn’t mind getting a hold of Marvin, but only at the right price. Lee Evans has as much talent as anyone. He can turn any play into a touchdown, and you have to like that. Still, Trent Edwards is just a 2nd year guy, and that Buffalo offense is young. He’ll be better this season than he was last, but I don’t know if he’ll meet last year’s hype. I love Coles. If him and Brett can get on the right page, he’ll do big things. He’s a do everything receiver. I look for him to have a nice season. Santana Moss is very explosive. Look at his history and see what he can do in a season. I think Jason Campbell will be improved and Moss will help him take that next step. Drive is always solid and he looks tough right off the bat. He never gets credit, but I bet his production stays very similar to last seasons. I originally though that Berrian would struggle in Minnesota. Then I realized that he came from Chicago. Can’t get much worse than that passing offense. If Jackson figures it out, Berrian will put up his best numbers ever. If not, I stil think he gets close to last year’s figures. Chris Chambers will do solid things in San Diego. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a super-star, in fact I just don’t see it. He’s had some nice half-years. I think he’ll be more consistent this season, but SD isn’t the place for receivers to go off. Nate Burleson might be the steal of this group. He’ll be what looks like the surefire #1 option in Seattle, and he’s got touchdown making ability. He’ll be picked behind almost every single guy in this tier, and some from the next tier down, but I like his upside a lot.

V

  1. Anthony Gonzalez
  2. Kevin Curtis
  3. Joey Galloway
  4. Derrick Mason
  5. Hines Ward
  6. Reggie Brown
  7. D.J. Hackett
  8. Deion Branch
  9. Javon Walker
  10. Devin Hester

I love Anthony Gonzalez as a player, but his value could very well depend on Marvin’s comeback. If Harrison has troubles, Gonzo is a steal. If not, I still think you get a guy that should produce like Brandon Stokely did as the #3 receiver in Indy a few years ago. Over 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns – you bet. Kevin Curtis has one great week and that week terribly inflated his numbers. Still, I think he’s a solid receiver. I don’t think you’ll ever see an 80 catch 1200 yard 10 TD season from this kid, but he’s a nice option if McNabb and company get #1 production from an unknown receiving source this season. I don’t think Curtis plays as well as the scariest option. Joey Galloway is still one of the fastest receivers in the game, and Jeff Garcia is a solid quarterback. If both stay healthy, Galloway will outperform this ranking. I don’t think they’ll both stay healthy all season. Derrick Mason is another old guy that was caught outperforming his expectations last season. There are too many quarterback questions in Baltimore for him to repeat last seasons’ surprises, right? I don’t know, he’s a safe bet to produce so he fits in this tier. Hines Ward had a down year, dealt with injuries, and became a 2nd option to Santonio Holmes. Still, he’s a very good player that, if healthy, will continue to produce at a high level. He’ll be underrated on draft day. Reggie Brown had a tough season in Philly last year, but I still like his upside. You can get him late and he might just be the #1 Philly wanted him to be. Hackett has as much talent as anyone on this list. He can never stay healthy, but if he does, he’ll do good things in Carolina. This kid can really run and catch the ball. Deion Branch would be higher if he was a sure thing to be healthy by the get-go. Right now, he’s way ahead of schedule on his ACL, but that often worries me. He’s a good player though, consistently scoring fantasy points. Javon Walker could be a great pick, but, like everyone else, I’m worried about this guy. Proceed with caution, I don’t know if we’ll ever see the Walker that played great in Green Bay. Devin Hester gets the last spot in this tier, but he’s as much of a question mark as any. He may have more upside as well. He’s a risk, sure, but Chicago is putting him down as a starting WR, and if he can get 60-70 touches this year, I think 10-12 touchdowns could be obtained. That would make him a steal!

VI

  1. Reggie Williams
  2. Bryant Johnson
  3. Isaac Bruce
  4. Vincent Jackson
  5. Bobby Engram
  6. Justin Gage
  7. Patrick Crayton

VII

  1. Derek Hagan
  2. Steve Smith (NYG)
  3. Eddie Royal
  4. Sidney Rice
  5. James Hardy
  6. Ronald Curry
  7. Donte Stallworth
  8. Drew Bennett
  9. Jabar Gaffney

VIII

  1. Ted Ginn Jr.
  2. Devery Henderson
  3. Mushin Muhammad
  4. James Jones
  5. Kevin Walter
  6. Jacoby Jones
  7. Robert Meachem
  8. Mark Clayton
  9. Davard Darling
  10. Antwan Randel El