Papa's Predictions

So what, I’m old and these damn computer things seem to get the best of me at every turn. I need glasses to watch the game, and sometimes I yell “fumble” while sitting all by myself on my big ass chair in my big ass living room on my big ass. Oh, and sometimes there was no fumble at all – forgot to mention that. In fact, I seem to forget from time to time as well. Screw it, all that jazz doesn’t even matter because when it comes to football I surely know my game. I’ve said some things that have been wrong, but that only accounts for 3 instances in my football existence. So, when asked to do my predictions I figured, what the hell. Sure, the nephew might be able to actually keep tabs on the things I predict now, but that just gives me one more chance to prove my football knowledge dominance in this family tree. Let the predictions begin with glory and rapture!!!

 

  1. Vince Young – Top 5 fantasy quarterback in leagues that award only 4 points for throwing touchdowns.
  2. LenDale – more fantasy points than Chris Johnson in every format, except maybe PPR – that will be a close race. 
  3. Earnest Graham won’t get 20+ carries in more than 3 games this season – and that bites into his value.
  4. Deion Branch – best fantasy receiver in Seattle (total points).
  5. LeSean McCoy will be a better professional running back than Beanie Wells – and he will be something (draft him in leagues where that’s a part of it).
  6. Willis McGahee – 1200+ rushing yards for the Ravens.
  7. Edgerrin James will break the 1000-yard mark once again.
  8. My nephew thinks Calvin Johnson will be a Top 15 WR – he’ll be a Top 5 WR – my nephew will edit this article and I thank him for that.
  9. Matt Ryan – much better fantasy quarterback than Joe Flacco this season – but neither will bust the Top 20.
  10. Chad Pennington will bust the Top 20, and throw at least 20 touchdowns if he plays more than 12 games.
  11. Jerchio Cotchery – easily outscore Coles in New York.
  12. Selvin Young – the leading rusher in the NFL headed into Week 7.
  13. Kurt Warner will get hurt in the first four weeks, allowing Matt Leinart to take the starting job back and keep it for the duration of the season – the entitled little bastard.
  14. DeAngelo Williams gets 66% of the carries in Carolina and rush for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career.
  15. Dustin Keller – Top 10 fantasy tight end by seasons end.
  16. So will Greg Olsen.
  17. Nate Burleson – scores double digit touchdowns in Seattle again.
  18. Steve Slaton will lead the Texans backfield, and will approach 80 receptions.
  19. Marion Barber – best running back this season in fantasy land.
  20. Brain Westbrook won’t play more than 11 games – as much as I love the guy.
  21. Chris Perry – top 15 fantasy running back.
  22. Frank Gore – top 5 fantasy back.
  23. Randy Moss – catches less than 15 touchdowns, but still has a great season – more catches this year.
  24. Chad Johnson figures out that the Bengals don’t have a chance by Week 6 – that’s when he opts for season ending surgery – he gets traded in 2009.
  25. The SeaChickens don’t win the NFC West this year.
  26. Neither do the freaking Niners.
  27. LT scores in each of his first four games to start the season.
  28. Adrian Peterson won’t break the Top 5 running back list in 2008.
  29. Willie Parker revisits his 2006 form and finishes the year with 1300+ yards and 9 touchdowns or more. (nephew thinks this is crazy old man speak)
  30. Plaxico Burress – his best statistical season, don’t believe my nephew’s bad ju-ju.
  31. Steve Smith – will be the #2 in New York and catch 65 balls at least.
  32. Steve Smith – Carolina’s best weapon puts up 12 touchdowns and finishes in the Top 5 amongst per-game fantasy receiver.
  33. Brandon Marshall – does work in Denver, grabbing 100+ balls in 15 games.
  34. Rookie receiver James Hardy will lead all rookie receivers in touchdowns.
  35. Tony Scheffler – Top 5 TE.
  36. The Ravens will lose at least 12 games.
  37. Santana Moss – ready? – 1300+ yards, 9+ touchdowns, 80+ grabs – believe it. 
  38. Ronald Curry finally meets my nephew’s expectations now that he hasn’t said anything about him recently – 1000+ yards and 6 or more scores in 08.
  39. Chris Henry – more touchdowns for the Bengals than Chad Johnson gets.
  40. Adam “Pacman” Jones never gets in trouble again – he also plays offense a little this season and scores at least 4 touchdowns.
  41. Jamal Lewis will be a great buy-low candidate after Week 3 – get him then and reap the benefits. (nephew thinks this is a great call)
  42. Ryan Grant is going to be a beast – 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns are not out of the question.
  43. Reggie Bush – 10+ total touchdowns this season, his highest total of his career.
  44. Deuce McAllister will lead the Saints in rushing yards -even on 3 bad knees.
  45. Maurice Jones Drew – 200+ carries for 1200+ yards and scores at least 14 times – and welcome to JD being a Top 5 fantasy pick for the next 4 years.
  46. Tarvaris Jackson – 20+ touchdowns for the Vikings. (interesting says the nephew)
  47. So does Jason Campbell, but not for the Vikings.
  48. Anquan Boldin catches more balls than Larry Fitzgerald.
  49. Marvin Harrison catches 80+ balls and scores between 8-12 times.
  50. Terrell Owens will lead all receivers in touchdowns – damn his black heart. 

Ask Papa Weimer: Last Pre-Season Questions

Here it is, one more question and answer section from you guys to me – there were three pretty solid email questions that I thought would be good to share – these are them.

David-Bill-Bob from America writes, “What do you think of Ted Ginn as a possible receiver option this season? What about Robert Meachem, James Hardy, Devin Hester, and Sidney Rice? Can you rate that foursome?”

Oh yes, lots of upside here. Not very much sure-thing here, but who loves to play a game you’re sure to win? Not me – I’m all about the upside. Forget the Bobby Engrams and the Derrick Masons, I’ll wait longer and dance with the young-guns. I think Ted Ginn could be a great player in the Dolphins passing attack, but I doubt he’ll score many touchdowns. The thing that’s good about his situation is that Pennington throws short a lot and Ted is fast enough to get some separation early. As for the rest of the guys, Devin Hester is my favorite – he’s a touchdown waiting to happen, and even if he gets 60 catches this season, he’ll probably take 10 of them to the house. Robert Meachem could be the best of the bunch, but I wasn’t a huge fan of the kid coming out of college. He looked solid in the pre-season, and what a weapon he could be if Drew Brees finds a liking for throwing to him against single coverage. Sidney Rice is a nice sleeper – it’s said that T-Jackson is more accurate than ever, and with Berrian opposite Rice, Sindney should get lots of single coverage. I don’t know if the Vikes will throw enough to make Rice a solid start week in and week out, but the kid can go up and get the ball, which might be good for 6-9 scores as defenses will focus on the run. James Hardy was my favorite receiver in the draft and I think he has a bright future, but he’s just a rookie and the speed of the game might hamper him early. Keep an eye on him though, when he figures it out he’ll be a threat. I’d rank them like this… Ginn Jr. – Devin Hester – Robert Meachem – Sidney Rice – James Hardy.

Tim from Floresville, Texas writes, “The people in my league think I am crazy for trading Chad Johnson for Bernard Berrian. What do you think?? I only picked up Chad to trade him, his inconsistencies and the fact that Cinci has the 2nd toughest schedule against the pass this season made me trade him away.”

Tim, I think BB is a good receiver, but he’s not Chad Johnson. I fully understand taking Chad so you can trade him later, but I still don’t think you got the best value you could have by grabbing BB in a trade for him. If all you wanted was BB, you could have just drafted him instead of Chad. You likely would have gotten a better RB where you got Chad, and you still could have got BB later. You say Berrian didn’t have anyone throwing him the ball last year, but in reality, Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even as prolific through the air as Rex Grossman is. I like Jackson’s upside, but even if Chad has a down year and Berrian plays really well, I thikn the best you can hope for here is a push. Even against tough passing defenses, the Bengals still ahve Carson Palmer and TJ Housmandzadeh to help take the pressure off Chad. Maybe the Bengals just crash and tumble, and maybe Chad is hurt and out longer than expected – and maybe Jackson shows maturity and tosses 20 touchdowns. I don’t know, but that just seems like a lot of maybes to hope for. I have BB in a few leagues, and I would definitely trade him straight up for Chad in every one of them. But no, I don’t think you’re crazy, I think you’re courageous. There’s nothing better in fantasy football than making a trade that everyone thinks you are stupid for and coming out on top because of it. That means you were right and everyone else was wrong. That’s the best. You definitely did your research, and I’m rooting for you. Also, Chad isn’t consistent, that’s true. Over the last couple seasons, he’ll help you win 3 or 4 weeks and kill you for the other 10. With a lot of single coverage, because of Peterson, BB could end up being a lot more consistent that Chad. Good luck!

T.J. in Alabama says, “Papa, you have any sweet predictions this season? Last year you told me that Randy was going to blow up and Larry Fitz was going to lead the league – both had huge years for me and I’m back for more. Any secret advice?”

Like Chef once said, “You’ve got to find the clitoris.” That might not help in this particular situation, but it does allow older men (like myself) to pleasure younger women, which in turn gives hope to mankind. Alright, alright, I was planning on a little, “This is how I see it” article next week, but here’s a little preview, T.J., you impatient bastard!

Larry Johnson will be a Top 5 running back this year, making him an absolute steal at the end of Round 1 where he’s getting drafted.

Drew Brees will throw more touchdown passes (I’m thinking 36) than any other quarterback in the NFL this season. That’s right, while I’m not a huge fan of Jeremiah Shocker, he will take that much pressure off of Drew because of the constant attention opposing defenses will have to pay him. I don’t think Shockey’s touchdown totals will improve all that much (he’s bound to drop as many TDs as he catches – so probably 6-7 scores for him) but Reggie Bush, Colston, and Meachem will all set their season high touchdown marks this year. Brees as well.

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Edgerrin James – this is no knock on James, because Ricky will outscore three of the following high-round picks… LenDale White, Earnest Graham, Ronnie Brown, Julius Jones, and Willie Parker.

Adrian Peterson extreemists are right, there will be at least one back that outscores LaDainian Tomlinson this season, but they are also wrong, because it won’t be AP – Marion Barber will lead all running backs in fantasy points this season.

And last but not least, Randy Moss won’t come close to his record touchdown catches of last year, but Wes Welker will score more fantasy points this year than he did last year – both are still great options to have.

Keep the questions coming, and stay tuned, I’ll be here all season! (hopefully the ticker keeps tickin’)