Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview

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Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I liked the Jaguars a lot coming into the season, and while they’ve played well lately, they still haven’t show enough for me to ever take them as a 9 point favorite, even against a Bills team that JUST fired their coach on Tuesday, seemingly has been outscored 4000 to 17 in 4th quarters during the first 9 games, and is among the league’s worst in stopping the run (something Jacksonville heavily relies on to succeed). Basically, the Bills defense is a good match-up for the Jags, and I’m still not taking the big favorite.

Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars twice in the last 3 seasons despite being the underdog in all three games. Teh Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against the Jags since 1998, they have won 5 of the last 7 match-ups. Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville 3 of the last 4 times, and I’m sorry to say this, but Buffalo just isn’t as bad as their record (and 4th quarter play) is trying to tell you.

Now, there’s the whole coaching thing, and I want to let everyone know, I picked this game prior to Dick Jauron’s dismissal, but I actually like my chances better since the forever mediocre coach’s departure early Tuesday Morning. There’s two ways a team can go, they can be excited for the new guy or disappointed about the old guy’s departure. I’m guessing this will be option one. If anything, the new coach might pull his head out of the dirty smelling hole Dick Jauron was stuck in and get the Bills to do what they do best, run the damn football. If they do that against the Jags, this cover is as sure as they get. I’m taking a chance here, that’s for sure.

Denver Broncos vs Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview

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Denver Broncos (-4.5) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick & Preview: I picked the spread in this game before the line opened at any books, and while it is down to 3 at most books right now, I have to stand by my pick at -4.5 – I’m not too worried about it, it would be amazing if that one point difference, especially between those two numbers, makes much of a difference in this game. I still don’t see what or why this spread is as small as it is. Obviously some people a lot sharper than me like the Redskins in this one, because it’s not the public, 73% of the public like what they see in the Broncos. That’s another scary number.

But the Broncos have shelled bad teams this year. I’m not sure Washington’s defense is anywhere near as bad as Cleveland, and I don’t think the Redskins are as bad as the Raiders, but Denver made both of those teams look silly. Sure, the Broncos have been blasted (on the score board) two games in a row, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh are no joke, it’s not like they came out and lost to Tampa Bay or anything.

This Broncos team may be struggling running the ball, but the last two weeks they’ve faced arguably two of the better run defenses in the league. They’ll get back on track against the Redskins. I truly believe that. Washington has actually played very well defensively this year, but that offense doesn’t have the firepower to score many points, and I think Josh McDaniels and the Broncos will put up some points in D.C.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders NFL Prediction

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Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders NFL Prediction: Kudos to the oddsmakers, this line hasn’t changed a bit and 50% of the people rest on either side. Quite amazing, really. It’s games like this that make me stoked to have NFL Sunday Ticket, but it’s games like this that make my friends hate that I have Sunday Ticket. I’m telling you, in sports, I like car wrecks, this thing is a full blown opposite direction fast lanes merging into one bike lane – and I get to see it!

Okay, so I’m pretty sure this line is making the Raiders a solid value bet, if there ever is such a thing. The Chiefs getting 2 points in Oakland is basically calling KC the better team, which I honestly have a hard time accepting – and yes, I’m betting on KC this week. Maybe the line is the way it is because the road team has won the last 6 match-ups between these formerly proud franchises. Now you can walk up to a mime and say, “Chiefs-Raiders” and get a pretty good out loud chuckle. The Raiders have beaten the Chiefs in 3 of the last 4 contests, and I’m pretty sure the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that Oakland can say that about. I’m not kidding.

But all pasts and records aside, the Chiefs, at least to me, are the better team. They are cleaning some things up, and have played close games (even winning one, if you count the Redskins) in 3 of their last 4. They lost to Dallas in overtime, beat Washington in D.C., and just lost by 3 to Jacksonville in Florida last week. The Chiefs are definitely playing their best football of the year. They lost last time they played the Raiders, 10-13, but I think they turn the tables this week. I’m pretty sure losing to Oakland 4 times in 5 games is physically impossible.

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Free NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-8.5) Free NFL Pick: Arizona beat Seattle 27-3 last time out, and that game was in Seattle where the Hawks have proven to be one of the best home teams in the NFL. The Cardinals powerful defensive line handled a injury ridden Seahawks offensive line, shut down the Hawks rushing attack, and put pressure on Matt Hasselbeck all game long. I don’t have any reason to believe that this weekend’s tilt between the Seahawks and Cardinals will be any different. I just think that, flat out, the Cardinals are a terrible match-up for the Seahawks, even a Hawks team that doesn’t play soft and have a depleted roster because of injuries. A healthy Hawks team would have trouble with the Cardinals.

Unless of course Kurt and company just has one of those games, something they’ve proven they can do every once in a while. I mean, Kurt and company got smacked around by the Panthers a couple weeks ago – where does that kind of garbage come from? The Hawks can’t put that kind of pressure on Kurt. Warner can pick apart a secondary that tries not to make too many mistakes instead of being aggressive.

The Hawks will try to run the ball, but the Cardinals front 7 are dominant against the run. Arizona’s secondary can get beat deep, no doubt, they give up their fair share of big plays and passing yards, but the Hawks don’t take many chances down field despite having a trio of WRs like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson, and Deion Branch – not to mention a great young TE in John Carlson. The Hawks come out trying not to lose. Arizona is going to beat them up right out of the gates.

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Football Pick

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Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3) Football Pick: Oh, I definitely see what the public likes in Dallas here. The Packers are overrated, they can’t give Aaron Rodgers enough time to use his elite arm and awesome wide receiving corps, yet they think they should throw the ball 75% of the time. They got beat up pretty good by the Vikings, and then went and lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs, everybody’s favorite team to go winless in 2009. Then you look at what the Packers have actually done, who they’ve beaten, you get a number of JV teams and a mediocre Chicago Bears squad. (Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit are their other wins – nice…)

But I have to believe the Pack will come to play on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. The Cowboys didn’t look very good offensively last week against Philadelphia, and I’d almost say that the Eagles beat themselves more than Dallas taking the victory. Obviously Dallas has a pass rush that could give Green Bay a lot of trouble, but they also have WRs that should give the Packers secondary a lot of trouble. Guys like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones are all very physical receivers that run great routes – the Cowboys are susceptible to the deep ball, and I think Green Bay takes advantage a few times this week.

Those big plays will be enough to get the Packers the home win, or so I imagine – that Tampa loss will act as a nice little wake-up call for a Packers team that better shape up or fade into obscurity. The Cowboys are coming off a huge win over the Eagles, and they didn’t really play that well. That’s a good combination for a Packers cover.