Tag Archives: Free Sports Betting Predictions

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.

Toledo Rockets vs Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick: There was a type-o on my original selection in the Newsletter sent out Tuesday morning. I wrote that I picked the Rockets because the spread was way too inflated, but on the newsletter it highlighted the Chipps (+16) instead of Toledo (+16). This game has already moved to 17 in just about every book, 17.5 in a couple. But historically, that’s just way to high. Great value in the Rockets here.

Central Michigan have been favored by more than 16 points just once all season long, and they’ve played worse teams than Toledo. What does that tell you? Well, the cool-aid is wearing crazy Chippewa colors, and despite their solid start to the season, a win by two scores is still impressive, and I don’t expect much more from the Chipps.

The Rockets are 6-4 over Central Michigan over the last 10 seasons, but the Chipps are 4-0 in the last 4 years. Central Michigan has covered 4 out of the last 5 as well. Toledo is 3-1 O/U on the road this season. The Chipps are 2-1 O/U at home. Toledo is just 2-2 on the road, but have been in each of their 2 road losses late.

The one big question for me in this one is the health of #1 and 2 quarterbacks for Toledo. Both are questionable headed into Wednesday’s game, but they haven’t played in over 10 days, and the chances of one, if not both, being able to suit up on Wednesday Night is looking pretty good. I’ll gamble, I’m taking the Rockets.

NBA Free Picks: Washington vs Miami, Denver vs Chicago

Posted on by

These are my free NBA picks for Tuesday, November 10th. The Denver/Chicago game is scheduled on NBA TV at 8pm ET- so if you got it, you can pick it up there. Washington and Miami can be found on the Heat’s home network via Sun Sports and starts at 7:30pm ET.

no banners

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat (-6.5): Washington hasn’t impressed me lately. Their entire offense has been Gilbert Arenas trying to drive into traffic and/or shoot pull up jumpers. I don’t think that’s going to cut it against a Heat team that has really stepped it up defensively. It’s hard to believe that Quentin Richardson, who was traded fifty times this summer, would make such an impact on this Heat team – but he has. He guards the opponents best back-court player and has done a great job. His 3-stroke confidence is coming back, and the Heat are off to a 5-1 start, straight up and against the spread.

Miami has had 3 days off since upsetting Denver while Washington recently got slapped around in the 4th quarter buy Phoenix in a loss at home. Miami beat Washington 93-89 last time these two teams played, the 4th of November earlier this year. Washington is 2-5, SU and ATS. One things working against me is how well Washington has played over the last few years in Miami- going 7-2 ATS on the road in their last 9 games down South. Still, I’ll take the Heat to overcome that 6.5 point spread at home.

Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls (+2): I love the Nuggets, but the way Chicago’s posts have been playing, I have to give the Bulls front line the advantage. Chicago’s played well lately, is undefeated at home, and Denver has really struggled in their last two games after starting the season 5-0. They’ve gotten shelled by the Heat and Hawks in back to back games. They’re currently playing their 5th game in a row on the road, and like I said, Chicago’s young and energetic team looks like a solid bet at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (+3): Monday Night football must have known something that most of us did not. After all the off-season turmoil in Denver, to think that a Steelers/Broncos game would be a good match-up in Week 9 of the NFL season seemed crazy when the MNF schedule came out. Yet here we are, and Pittsburgh isn’t the team with the best record – that belongs to 6-1 Denver. Not only has Denver done well straight up, but they’re 6-1 ATS this season as well. And being an underdog isn’t a new thing for the Broncos, so far this season they’ve been favored just twice, against Cleveland and Oakland.

Denver is coming off a tough loss to the Ravens last week, getting pretty much blown out in the second half after going into halftime down 6-0. The Steelers are coming off a bye week right after a 4 game winning streak, including a 10 point win over Minnesota in Pittsburgh. After going 1-2 to start the season, and looking very mediocre in the process, Pittsburgh has picked it up of late, making big plays on defense and continuing to throw the ball early and often.

Denver has beaten Pittsburgh 3 of the last 4 times these two have met. But that doesn’t mean much normally, and now that these two teams have relatively young coaches with different systems and players, that history means even less. Maybe last season’s 33-10 win over New England is a better judge of past accomplishments. It was Josh McDaniels’ offense that couldn’t do much against Pittsburgh’s defense.

But lets talk about this season. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS and have not been able to put the nail in the coffin despite being up early in most games. They have struggled to close, and thus haven’t really met expectations in the margin of victory. Denver has played tough against everyone, their secondary is very good, and they bring lots of pressure to opposing passers. The Steelers might find it tough to block the Broncos pass rush, and since Big Ben holds the ball a little longer than most, that could make for some big plays for the Broncos defense. Denver shuts down opposing rushing attacks, so the weight of the world will go on Ben’s passing skills. That’s a recipe for failing to cover. So I’ll take the Broncos.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick & Preview

Posted on by

no banners

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2) Pick & Preview: In my experience, when a road team is an underdog by less than three points, the oddsmakers are saying that the road team is the better squad. I can’t believe, not one single bit, that Dallas is the better team.

Both teams can be complacent against lesser opponents, and both can forget the run and pass the ball too much, but in no major part of the game are the Cowboys better than the Eagles. Not offensively, not defensively. They might have a better offensive line, they might even run the ball a little better – but the Eagles can put up points quick, they are solid in every aspect of the game, and I think that gets them the win at home against the Cowboys.

Dallas has one good win, at home against Atlanta two weeks ago. They played well and should have beat the Giants, but Mr. Romo went kamikaze style on his squad. They played decent against Denver, but the Broncos looked like the better team throughout. Tampa, Carolina, Seattle, and an overtime win over Kansas City mark the Cowboys other 4 wins. Lucky schedule. Now I think Dallas is solid, heck, right now I see them as a playoff team. They are getting better defensively and offensively I think they are finding their way again.

But the Eagles do so many things well, and Dallas doesn’t have the secondary to stop Donovan and company. They struggle against elite speed at receiver, and I think Maclin and Jackson are probably the fastest starting receiving duo in the league.

Then there’s confidence. The last time Dallas came into Philly, a playoff birth was on the line, last week of the 2008 season, and the Eagles stomped the Boys 44-6. Yeah, 44-6… The Eagles have won 5 of the last 7 against Dallas. Philly is 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season. Combined, these two teams are 11-3 O/U on the season. Points are going to be scored. I think Philly’s defense makes the big play and gets the win for the home team.

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) Free NFL Pick: Ugh. This is a tough one for me. If you tune in weekly, you know I generally have some trouble picking Seahawk games, I think it’s because they are so erratic and I know so much about their team. Players wise, this team is very talented, offensively and defensively. They just have no confidence against good teams, and they can really stink it up.

On the other hand, they can play awesome against terrible teams. The Lions are terrible, I mean, they just lost to the worst team in football, err Steven Jackson. The Hawks can throw the ball well, and the offensive line shouldn’t have as many problems this week when the Lions defensive front comes to Seattle. Still, this is tough because how can you take the Hawks as nearly a double digit favorite? The value isn’t there.

That being said, I am taking them here. Why? Well, the Hawks are 2-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-5 against teams with winning records. So they play well against tomato cans (or fellow tomato cans, if you want to go that far) but they certainly struggle against good teams. Where does Detroit fit in? Right. Those two bad teams that Seattle has beaten, Jacksonville and St. Louis, a 69-0 combined score in those two games. Seattle’s defense plays well with a lead, something they should get this week at home.

Oregon State Beavers vs California Golden Bears Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Oregon State Beavers (+7) @ California Golden Bears Pick: This one is a little weird to me, because when you break down these two teams, I think it’s overwhelming that the best team between the two is Oregon State. I know the Beavers are on the road in this one, but they’ve played well away from Beaver-town this season, losing by a score to USC and beating up ASU outright. They’ve only lost to pretty good teams like USC, Cincinnati, and Arizona. They are impressive, and the Rodgers brothers are special, while running back Jacquizz gets most of the publicity, both are great college players. I’d say James is very underrated. Quizz had over 200 yards rushing and receiving last week, but James also tallied 120 yards of total offense against UCLA. The two are key players in the Beavers’ success.

Cal’s wins are unimpressive, that’s the bottom line. The best team they’ve beaten is either Arizona State or Minnesota – maybe UCLA? And they’ve been obliterated by good competition as Oregon and USC combined to smoke the Bears 72-6 in back to back weeks.

The Beavers have been playing their best football of the season over the last two weeks, winning 3 of their last 4 including a 10 point W over Stanford. Sean Canfield has been awesome as the team’s quarterback, already throwing for over 2000 yards with 11 touchdowns while completing 69% of his passes. His ability to stretch the field with his arm has opened up a lot for the Beavers rushing attack, the strongest aspect of their offense. The Beavers have beaten Cal 8 of the last 10 games, winning at Cal in each of the last 4 visits to California.

San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants Pick & Preview

Posted on by

no banners

San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants (-3.5): When this line came out I was very excited, somehow, somewhere, somebody decided the Chargers were a complete enough football team to compete with even a struggling Giants squad. Nope.

I know the Giants have struggled, I mean, look, my record has taken at least three straight hits on their behalf – but I’m not ready to give up on what I think about the Giants. They still have an elite defense and an offense that has been moving the ball, just struggling to get into the end-zone. I know Eli’s ouchy footsy injury might be hampering his ability to plant his foot, but I have a feeling the Giants show up this weekend.

If that means Brandon Jacobs and Ahamad Bradshaw running the ball 35 times, or if Ellie gets back to being Eli, or if it’s big plays on defense that set up Giant scores, what ever it is, I think the Giants have a very good chance to beat a Chargers team that just can’t make the big stop defensively. San Diego can throw the ball, but they don’t have the same rushing game they’ve had over the years, and the defensive problems that they ran into last season are still very evident.

Then again, there’s room to question the Giants here. They played mediocre football in Week 1 against Washington, of all teams. They won a game they should have lost against Dallas in Week 2. They then proceeded to win 3 more games against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland – woohoo! 3 straight embarrassing losses to good teams brings a little question to the equation, but I still think New York is the much better team here.

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Carolina Panthers (+15) @ New Orleans Saints Free Pick: The value here is with Carolina and it’s because they have an elite rushing attack and any time you give an elite rushing attack 15 points on Sunday, that bet has value.

Because of how the Saints have played, how they’ve come back and covered in games they probably should have lost outright, and that they refuse to lose as one of the two undefeateds left in football, they are hard to bet against. Not only have they been winning, but they are 6-1 ATS – but the Saints haven’t been two touchdown favorites since they played Detroit earlier this season – if that puts how ridiculous this spread is into any perspective for you. Panthers > Lions – believe me.

The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 games, so what if their first two wins were over Washington and Tampa Bay and a loss to Buffalo is squeezed in there. The bottom line is, last week the Panthers figured it out and fed the ball to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the best running back duo in football.

Why it took this long to keep the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands is beyond me, but proving to me that they will run the ball to win is good enough for me to take them as a 15 point underdog, even against this year’s “best team in football”.  62% still like the Saints – come on. The Carolina value is good enough for me.

LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Football Pick

Posted on by

no banners

LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5) Football Pick: A larger percent of the public likes LSU in this one, so much so that the line has dropped to 7.5 from the 9.5 opening. When I made my pick, it was an 8.5 point spread. The public bet is starting to even out, but I can see why most of the bettors like LSU and the points in this one. They’ve lost just one game all year, and that was too one of the Nation’s best teams, Florida, in a very close game, 13-3.

The problem I have with LSU is their ability to score. They’ve struggled offensively against good teams, and Alabama’s swarming defense is one of the best in the nation. The Tide have a fantastic rushing game, and a young quarterback that doesn’t make big mistakes, just 3 interceptions so far this season. Alabama plays the right way, using their run game to out-physical opponents, and the play action pass to stick daggers.

Flat out, I just think LSU is not as good as Alabama. Their rushing attack isn’t as efficient, their offensive line isn’t as good, and as a team their defense isn’t as dominant as the Crimson Tide. I think Alabama has a big performance in this one, beating LSU easily, basically looking a lot better than Florida did when the Gators beat the Tigers earlier this season.

Last season’s win over LSU was Alabama’s first since 2002. The Tigers have beaten the Gators in 7 of their last 8 meetings. The Tigers have finished under the total in each of their last 4 games. The Crimson Tide have finished under the total in each of their last three. Alabama hasn’t lost at home since 2007.