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Free NFL Picks REVIEW: Week 10

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I only took 13 games because there was no line out for the Colts/Steelers game headed into the weekend. But, I still had 10 wins as a goal, and sure enough, I stomped the yard in Week 10, busting out double digit wins and losing just 3 contests. (One absolute robbery when the Broncos but up Black Jack in the 4th quarter on Thursday Night). Anyway, 10 wins folks, this is how the hammer hit nails.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3): I took 21 points on the chin in the 4th quarter, and the Browns were still driving to push the spread. I’m sorry folks, I’ll take this loss, but I will credit one hell of a bad beat on Thursday Night. I picked this one on the spot, and I would take the Browns -3 at home against the Broncos and win 80% of the time. This just happened to be one of those 20%. Pooey nuts.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Detroit Lions: (Winner) My analysis was on point again in this one – go back to my Free Picks article if you don’t believe me.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears: (Winner) The Titans struggled a bit in this one, and Rex Grossman (despite boos and bad press) played pretty well. However, it wasn’t enough, and watching this game I never was too worried. The Titans cover and still have zero losses this year.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-3.5): (Winner) “I know this isn’t Tom Brady’s Patriots, and these aren’t J.P. Losman’s Bills, but New England hasn’t lost to Buffalo since 2003 – What was going on in 2003 last time Buffalo got a W against New England? Well, Tara Reid might have been considered good looking, Matt Ryan was playing high school football somewhere, and this great country was just about to give President George W. Bush one more run and complete destruction… That’s a while ago. If you do the math, carry the three, that’s 9 straight wins for the Pats. But Buffalo is better this year, no doubt bout that, so I’ll look for some more conclusive evidence one way or another. The Pats have one loss at home this year, to Miami in the day Ronnie Brown ruled the earth, but I’m not ever sold based solely on homefield business. I need some more. I pointed out last week that New England plays pretty well against teams that do one thing well (either pass or run), but the Bills seem to do both things with some success, so I have no push there. The Patriots should have won last week against the Colts, but a couple dropped passes (Gaffney’s for sure) and that ultimate dump penalty late (thank you Dave Thomas, now get back to pimping Wendy) gave the game to the Colts. I still think Matt Cassel is playing good enough football, and the Bills are coming back to reality a bit. Buffalo’s only “good” win came against a 3-5 San Diego team. That’s right, 5 wins, one of them at home against San Diego – the other four against St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland, and Jacksonville. You sold on the Bills on the road against a Patriots team that just lost a game they should have won? Me neither. I’ll take the Pats.” This analysis was good enough to relive. I win again!!!

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) @ Houston Texans: (Winner) I wasn’t too fond of this game, but it looks like I had the right idea. Baltimore ran well and stuffed the Texans rushing attack. Houston didn’t come to win this game, and win they did not.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+1): (Winner) I win again!!! This one went like I thought it would, but I expected a little more from the Saints defense. What a transformation in Atlanta, huh?

St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-8): (Winner) You bet. Rams can’t play ball when the run is stuffed. Consider it stuffed. Thomas Jones took advantage of one of the worst run defenses in the league. I win again!

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9): (Loss) The Hawks came to play, and Miami wasn’t in a hurry in this one. I lost, but it was one of few my kind hearted readers – one of few.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: (Winner) This game didn’t go like I expected, but Adrian Peterson did crush Green Bay’s front 7, and 8 for that matter – and got the Vikings a 1 point win. Aaron Rodgers was under pressure all night, and those two safeties really came back to hurt. But who do the Vikings really get to thank for this win? Try the man calling plays in Green Bay. With a 55 yard field goal in sight and about 1 minute and 10 seconds left on the clock, the Packers run 2 run plays that get about 3 yards – leaving a good kicker a 51 yard shot at the win. Do the Packers know that when a field goal gets over 48 yards the percentage of good kicks drops in half? Idiots. They had plenty of time to make the field goal easier, and Mason just pushes it. It was good from 48, I’m telling you. Anyway – hahaha – I win, you lose for being stupid.

Carolina Panthers (-9) @ Oakland Raiders: (Winner) Despite trying as hard as he could to get the Raiders to cover, Jake Delhomme wasn’t allowed to play defense – thank God!!! The Panthers covered behind a couple nice runs by DeAngelo Williams and some good defense against a terrible offense.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) @ San Diego Chargers: (WINNER) “I have to take the Chiefs getting more than two touchdowns against a Charger team that has one win by more than 14 all season long. The Chiefs are bad, but they aren’t Oakland bad… Regardless of talent, these teams always play each other tough, it’s just the way it is. In fact, not one game in the last 10 meetings has the winner won by more than two touchdowns. Not once.” I must say, in a week where favorites did the dirty work, I had this one right on the nail folks.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: (Winner) You bet – just about how I expected it to go, but the Eagles were better than I thought. Still, their inability to run the ball against good defenses might be the end of them.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9): (Loss) Well, the 49ers were 2 yards away from ending my latest survivor pool run – luckily I pulled it out. Unluckily, so did all those people that took the Chargers. Regardless, this one was too close for me to cover, ending my Week 10 wins at 10 – Eleven Ws in Week 11 anyone?

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 6

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I didn’t win another week, but headed into Monday Night I needed an underdog Cleveland cover to finish a tough start Week 6 at .500 – it’s always nice to pull out of a week at even after going 0-4 to start your morning. 

Baltimore Ravens (+6) @ Indianapolis Colts: (LOSS) The Ravens laid a big freaking egg, and even if the Colts played terrible they would have covered this game. 3 points? Ugh – 5 Joe Flacco turnovers didn’t help. 

Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ New York Jets: (LOSS) But, I picked this game with the understanding that Carson Palmer would play. I told you all in my Five for Friday that the Bengals are no longer a good bet at +6 – I’m taking this loss, but only because of my good nature – there is no way I would have taken Cinci without Palmer. But as you saw, this game was not walk through for the Jets, it was close throughout. 

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (LOSS) The Panthers laid a huge egg as well – looks like I was picking some chickens this week. The Bucs came out and slapped the Panthers around pretty good. 

Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: (LOSS) Damn Chicago! No, really, there were some plays in this game that just magically went the Falcons way. Matt Ryan had a huge day through the air, but he through a couple passes that were sure thing interceptions, jut the Bears couldn’t manage to get their hands wrapped around the ball. I watched this game from kickoff until Jason Elam’s game winning field goal, and Atlanta must have had 3rd and long almost 10 times during the game. They got it every freaking time. That’s weird. I think I picked the right side here, but my 4th straight loss came hard. 

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): (WIN) Finally a win. The Saints anhilated the Raiders, just like I thought they would. Lane Kiffin was a good coach, maybe dumb dumb will see that by the time Oakland gets blown out for the 10th straight time. 

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): (LOSS) Detroit should have won this game, and obviously they covered easily. Minnesota looks absolutely lost and if it wasn’t for a gift pass interference call by some hopeless zebra, the Lions would have their first win – on the road against their division rival. 

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Houston Texas: (WIN) I thought this game might come down to the wire. Houston got it done with 3 seconds to go, but my Dolphins still covered. That’s what I like to call brilliant. I was hoping Houston would get a win, their talent deserves more than what they’ve got in the win column thus far, and I was also hoping to cover. Both happened Sunday. 

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13.5): (LOSS) Rams win. Yep, 4 fumble turnovers for the Redskins, and the Rams (thought they didn’t do anything all day offensively) get the win in Washington, crushing survivor pool hopes everywhere. This huge spread should have ran me off – what was I thinking?

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos: (WIN) When Maurice Jones Drew gets the ball 20+ times the Jags are almost always going to win. Now if they’d just realize that. Jacksonville walked into Denver and handled the Broncos. They were more physical and took advantage of the Broncos soft defensive front. Oh, and the Broncos secondary is bad too. Weird. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49ers: (WIN) It was sure close going into the 4th quarter, but Philly snapped out of it, and took advantage of some Mike Martz play calling and what do you know, I get another much needed win for this week. 

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: (LOSS) The Cardinals were apparently the play here. Dallas looked lost, and you have to wonder how they’ll do with Tony Romo (their most consistent player) out for 4 weeks. Hmmm… Arizona took this game one a blocked punt in overtime, and my dreams of a last second overtime touchdown for the Cowboys were dismantled. But at least the Cowboys lost, that will make a family Lucky Lester happy as usual. 

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (WIN) “Stay away from Washington sports.” The Huskies had a bye week, but the Cougars lost to Oregon State by about 50 easily failing to cover in that game. The Hawks played without Matt Hasselbeck and they looked bad. The Packers did pretty much anything they wanted, and the Hawks are really looking bad lately. 

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5): (WIN) And this one was easy breazy. The Chargers came out and did anything they wanted to do. They threw deep, they threw shallow, and while LT continued to struggle with his yards per carry, he even looked reasonably close to the Old LT on Sunday Night. I’ll take this one and wonder about the Patriots moving forward. 

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns (+9): Mistake? Maybe so. But “…the value is on Cleveland in this one. They play close games and they have talent. They will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, and New York is coming off one of their best games ever. Cleveland is coming off a bye week and while the Browns have stomped me down a couple times this season, I have to believe they’ll play up to their potential on Monday Night at home against the Super Bowl Champs. I also think this line should be somewhere close to 3.5 to 5 points, so 4 points of value is the way I have to go. Tough to pick against the Giants after the way they’ve started, but I’m not too amazed by their weak competition thus far – so maybe I’m right about this one after-all.” Well, I picked this one right on the button and it brought me to even on the week. I’ll take it. On to Week 7!!!

NFL Free Picks REVIEW: Week 4

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Hey!!! Finally the Brownies win one. But it wasn’t all sunshine on Sunday, some shoe shine busted the scene up pretty good, but after Monday’s tight contest I ended up at .500 – 6 and 6. This is where my pinks went right, and awry.

Denver Broncos (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs:
Larry Johnson was back and crushing any hope the Broncos had at winning this game. When all they needed was a stop to get a chance at a win, Larry put no his working boots and crushed some Bronco hearts. I must say, I like when Mike Shannahan loses, but it’s better when I win and he loses. Maybe next week.

Cleveland Browns (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
“As much as I hate betting on the Browns right now, there’s just no way I can justify taking the Bengals as a favorite. You know why? Because they shouldn’t be favored to do anything but lose.” Alright both of these teams are officially brutal, and things might have gone a little differently had Carson Palmer suited up, but a win is a win, and on .500 weeks I’m grateful for those.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5):
Those damn Texans had this one, and they played well most of the game. I think they’ll fight back to around .500, we’ll see, 0-3 is often a tough hole to fight your way out of. Houston covered easily, taking the Jaguars into overtime in Jacksonville. Maybe they’re turning around their poor road runs.

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Green Bay seemed to fold it up after the first drive of the game. Interesting for sure. Honestly, if it weren’t for some amazing Aaron Rodgers throws the Pack wouldn’t have had a chance. I’m beginning to think that Tampa Bay is the most underrated team around. The Packers will be back, but maybe I gave them a little too much credit after a quick start.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints :
The 49ers gave up too many big plays, and for once the Saints got me. When will Martz learn that Frank Gore’s rushing is the key to his success? I got one for you… NEVER. Damned again by my arch enemy Mike Martz.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-7):
“If the Panthers can run, and they can against Atlanta, they are a top notch football team. A touchdown seems like a lot, but I’d bet they cover.” I didn’t like giving a touchdown here, but I’m glad I did. Carolina is the much better football team and their defense stepped up to slam the door on the Falcons rushing attack. Making Atlanta throw to beat you is a good thing to do if you want a win.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (-3):
“I think the Titans are the better team here, they are playing in Tennessee, and their secondary isn’t as much of a question mark as the one in Minnesota.” Let me say this, Adrian Peterson is a beast. He needed about 15 more carries and the Vikings would have had a chance. Minnesota’s rushing attack gets better from here on out as their starting left tackle is back from a four game suspension. The Titans, on the other hand, look legit. Collins, as drunk as he looks, is coherent and doing enough through the air to keep defenses honest. Chris Johnson is everything this team needed to become scary offensively. Winner winner.

Buffalo Bills (-8) @ St. Louis Rams:
The Rams had this one in the bank, and then they turned into the Rams. Thank God! I needed this win something fierce and I was certainly worried until I actually watched the wheels come right off. And with the wheels went the head coach. Sigh.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) @ Oakland Raiders:
This was a bad beat for Raider backers. Certainly Oakland was up late in this game and if it weren’t for a burst and long touchdown by LT this game would have never been this close, or shall I say far away? The Raiders once again played well in a loss, and they did just little enough late to give me a cover here. I’ll take it. Without some close calls, this would have been a tough week for me.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears:
“I don’t buy the Bears as a playoff team. I’m buying the Eagles as a threat to be in the Super Bowl come February though.” Hmmm… Can I get a discount on the Bears as a playoff team? That defense in Chicago is legit, and the Eagles, without Brian Westbrook, just didn’t have enough to win this one. I may be wrong about the Bears, but it will take one more shot in the arm for me to believe in them.

Washington Redskins (+11.5) @ Dallas Cowboys:
“I do think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football, but I don’t think they are a good value at +11.5 against the Redskins, even with the game being played in Dallas. Washington has a nice passing attack and a runner in Clinton Portis that poses enough of a threat to keep the Cowboys on their toes.” Washington did the unthinkable and notched a loss in the Cowboys’ record. This Redskin team has lots of talent, speed on the outside and a workhorse toting the rock up the middle. Defensively they have some playmakers. This was a nice bet from the get go.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7):

The Ravens keep surprising me. The Steelers are really hurting and I didn’t properly take that into account. Now they are decimated. After a tough Monday Night match-up, a loss for the Ravens and a devastating win for the Steelers, I’m not sure I like either of these teams next Sunday. As is, I took my 6th loss in 12 chances, breaking me even at .500 on the week.

NFL Pre-Season Free Pick REVIEW: Week 4

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Well, yet another winning week made it 3 out of 4 for me in the NFL pre-season. I’m not going to yack about it too much, but this is how the story went – gotta keep records…. I finished the pre-season 10-6-1.

New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles(-3):

The Eagles were up 13-3 in this game, but the luck of the 3rd stringers couldn’t hold on. An 11 yard touchdown pass to Paul Raymond with 2:25 to go in the 1st half gave me a little taste of things to come, and it was a late Jesse Chatman touchdown run that gave the Jets a 27-20 win in Philly. My only favorite lost – I should have gone all underdogs apparently.

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills:

The Bills had more yards (both passing and rushing), first downs, a better 3rd down efficiency, and just about everything else besides score. That’s where the Lions came out victorious, 14-6. Buffalo couldn’t put points on the board, and were busted twice for safeties, giving away nearly as many points as they scored on those plays alone. The Lions scored 14 first half points and that was enough to finish off the BIlls.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens:

The offensively challenged Ravens continued their frustrating pre-season – but at least Joe Flacco looked good enough to be named the opening day starter. Not that the Ravens had a choice, he’s the only healthy signal caller left on the roster. Anyway, the Falcons got a touchdown pass from D.J. Shockley and that was enough to cover the spread. The 3rd quarter field goal was just icing as the Falcons won by a point.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

I had a feeling that half point would come in handy. Amazing how that works – I loved the Panthers at +3.5 and only thought them decent at +3 – and this is why folks. Jeff Reed hits a 43 yarder to win it, and everyone’s a winner – except the Panthers of course. Anyway, Pittsburgh won by 3 and I won by the good old .5.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys:

With the Cowboys up 3, Nick Folk kicked a 52 freaking yarder to go up 6 points and finish off my push. Damn kickers! Ha. Folk and the Cowboys brought me to 3-2 on the week and 10-6-1 overall during the pre-season. Lost here, but won a chicken dinner with my nice pre-season work.