Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This pick seems eerily easy. The Steelers have played too close with just about every team they’ve played, going so far as to lose some big games late because they couldn’t close out their opponents. Brett Favre has been dynamite, never more-so than late in games where he’s brought his team back from defeat, delivering in the clutch, Brett-Favre-Style if you will. But the Steelers are good, and they’ll be out to show Minnesota a thing or two about the kind of teams they’re going to have to beat to dethrone the Champs. The Vikings are 4-2 ATS this season while Pittsburgh has just one win against the spread in six chances. The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent with a winning record, but in 6 games this year, they’ve played 0 teams that came in with a winning record, the Vikings will be the first. Pittsburgh won’t win any early-season strength of schedule competitions, as their four wins come against the likes of Tennessee, San Diego, Detroit, and Cleveland. Yikes. Their two losses? Chicago and Cincinnati. Hmm… The Vikings have faced a few good teams, including a last minute win against Baltimore last week. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS on the road this season. I love that I still get a win if the Packers lose by a field goal, and I’ll get a push if the Steelers win by 4 (also a common outcome). The value is good, two good teams, I’ll take the undefeated road dogs here.
Tag Archives: Free Gambling Picks
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns Free NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Lots of stuff has me thinking this is a great bet. There’s the Flu that’s going around Cleveland like flies swarm cow poo, there’s the fact that Cleveland’s quarterback has a 44% completion rate on the season, or that Green Bay has played much better defensively over the past three games – many, many things say Packers. But 81% of the public likes this bet, and that’s a red flag if I’ve ever seen one. One thing Cleveland does better than Green Bay is control the ball, their time of possession is solid despite the inability to complete passes and being prone to turnovers. Big spreads for road favorites can often backfire with a pass happy team struggling to complete passes. But I see the Packers running the ball more this Sunday, holding the ball longer, and covering by at least a touchdown in Cleveland. Vegas or the people? Who wins this Sunday? Damn the man!
New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick
New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It’s almost poetic. New England heads to plain old regular England as the “road team” against one of the worst teams in football, Tampa Bay. Wimbley stadium has proven to be a tough place to keep your footing, as it gets chewed up by the weather. But tough field conditions can only be a help for New England. After the Patriots laid a proper onslaught of touchdowns on the Titans last week, and shut out Tennessee 59-0 (in the snow), of course they are going to be big favorites overseas. But it’s justified. The Patriots have played a lot better defensively that I expected this season, and that’s not good news for Josh Johnson and company. I don’t think it’s fair that New England gets to play in a sort-of funky situation, long plane ride, probably a shorter week of practice, because Coach Belichick and company do such a good job of getting their team ready for every situation. Rookie coach, Raheem Morris will certainly have his hands full this week, slowing what looks to be a revitalized Patriots offensive attack. 14.5 is a lot of points, and I wouldn’t bet too much on the game, but if I had to lean one way or another, I’d lean on Tom Brady.
Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Free Week 7 Picks
Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Carolina Panthers: I like how the world is waiting on Trent Edwards to see if they’re going to bet on the Bills, or even more, the books are waiting to post lines until that information comes out. Here’s a piece of advice for you, if you like the Bills, like I do here, wait until the news comes out that Trent will not be playing Sunday. If and when that happens, you’re likely to see this line jump up a little in Buffalo’s favor, and +7.5 is just that much sweeter than +7. That being said, I don’t see what the Panthers have done to be a touchdown favorite against anybody in the NFL. Was it last week’s win over Tampa where they barely pulled it off? Or was it the week before that when Washington had Carolina on the ropes 17-2 midway through the 3rd quarter? Or could it be when Carolina got beaten in ever single other game they’ve played this year? Listen, Buffalo doesn’t stop the run really well, but they do play close football games. Despite their poor record, 2-4, they’ve been in every single game they’ve played late, besides when Miami dominated them. If Carolina has yet to win by more than a touchdown and Buffalo has played just about everyone tough, how can you call Carolina -7 value? It’s not, not at all. Anything can happen, but the Bills have proven to me that they can keep it close. Carolina can’t put up a bunch of points fast, Buffalo covers in Carolina.
Papas Picks for Week 6: Only Underdogs! Ravens, Buccaneers, Raiders
Papa’s Picks!
This is Papa Weimer, I usually leave making picks up to the intelligent youngster in the family, but this week I see a few underdogs that need to be mentioned. Now a couple of these are different from the wonder-kid, but I’m putting myself out on the line and saying even the guys who are always right give a wrong pick now and again. These are my Top 3 underdog pick:
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: I don’t know about you guys, but there’s something about AP getting shut down by the Packers and Rams that get me shying away from the old man and his gang of purple clad cronies. The Vikings are solid, no doubts about that, but Ryan Grant and Steven Jackson had pretty solid numbers over the last two games, and even though the Vikings have won pretty easily, I’m not ready to turn my shoulder on that. The Ravens run the ball twice as well as the Rams and Packers, so unless the Vikings are ready to turn it up at home this Sunday, and play a completely different game, I think they’re going to get an upleasant surprise. The AFC’s big dogs are tough, and the Ravens won’t walk gingerly into Minnesota. Lucky’s with me on this one, we both like us some Ravens this Sunday!
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Lucky has given up on the Bucs, and that’s fair, but what’s to like about Carolina? At least there’s a group of guys playing hard in Tampa, not just Jake Delhome in Carolina. Yeah, that’s right, despite his troubles, Jake is playing hard for his team. But that’s about it. That offensive line isn’t blocking tough enough to get two good running backs going, and they sure as all hell aren’t protecting Jake. Tampa ditched their Gaines Adams project this week, and I think that gets people thinking in Tampa, they’re trimming fat now, and it’s time to step up. I think the Bucs get their first win, because sometime they’re going to have to, but even if they don’t a close game gets me a win anyway, that extra half point late makes me a happy bettor. Go Buccos!
Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders (+14.5): Hey, if Vegas is willing to give me a group of NFL football players and 14.5 points, I’m in. The Raiders are bad, sure, but only a couple McNabb interceptions need to happen for the Raiders to cover this spread. Maybe Al Davis is crazy, I wouldn’t doubt it, anybody that has combed his hair as much as that clown probably needs to be checked. But Tom Cable has fight, and there’s only so much time before the Raiders come out and show some. I think that’s this week at home against the Eagles. I think Michael Bush becomes a huge part of the Raiders game plan this week, and while nobody has mentioned him as a fantasy sleeper this week, I think his big plays, and a touchdown or two give the Raiders just enough to put some blankets on this large spread.
USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football Pick
USC Trojans (-10) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: You can’t get lucky every week, even if you are Irish. Notre Dame has had a lot of help, “officially”, and I doubt that continues against one of the more talented teams in the country. USC took a loss to Washington earlier this year, but they are still 4-1, and still showing dominance against lesser foes. Don’t get it twisted, the Irish are a lesser foe. Remember, USC hasn’t lost a game that Matt Barkley started. A lot of injuries usually kills a team, but a team with the roster talent like USC can do work. I expect Notre Dame to score more than the 3 points Cal put up last week, but Southern California will find plenty of open spaces to put up points against Notre Dame’s porous defense. 35-14, maybe 20, seems right to me. I’ll take the Trojans!
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Nights (+5.5): I guess Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh and that’s somehow the reason they are favored by 5.5 points playing at Rutgers on a Friday Night? Otherwise I can’t really explain it. Both teams have one loss, and neither looked pretty in the process. But Rutgers has played consistently better defense, giving up just 35 points over the last 4 games. And ready for this – since taking over at quarterback full time, Tom Savage has led his team to 4 straight wins. Not enough is said about that, not many people know. Savage has been very efficient, and better yet, mistake free. Look for him to continue his solid play, and at the very least, Rutgers is a nice value bet as a 5.5 point dog at home.
Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons Free College Pick
Wyoming Cowboys (+10.5) @ Air Force Falcons: This is the year Wyoming gets back at Air Force for taking them out in each of the last three seasons. Both teams run the ball really well, and while Air Force is a little more disciplined and a little more efficient on the ground, Wyoming throws the ball a little better and does a good job with the little things. Plus, I just think these teams are too even for a 10.5 point spread. Wyoming comes in playing their best football of the season and fixed some tough of the issues they had earlier in the season. Basically, Austyn Carts-Samuels has taken over the starting quarterback job for good, and in the last three games he’s really given the Cowboys an air threat. I think his play keeps this game close.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Florida Gators Free NCAA Pick
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Florida Gators (-24): I like the Gators to put up around 45 points against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Unlike LSU and Tennessee, the Razorbacks will drop back to pass in hopes of doing what they do best to win the game. That will play into what Florida does best, shut down opposing passing attacks, prey on mistakes, and turn all those short field opportunities to scores. The Gators haven’t played a game where they’ve given up two touchdowns yet this season. I think Arkansas is the best passing attack they’ve faced so far, but I still don’t think that transfers to more scoring chances for the Razorbacks. Florida should continue their defensive dominance, they have too many good players with too much speed. 42-10 sounds about right to me. I’ll take the number one team in the land!
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick
Virginia Tech Hokies (-3) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: I just think the Hokies are flat out a lot better than the Yellow Jackets. G-Tech has played well lately, but they give up too many points. You can’t do that against VaTech, it just doesn’t work. Why? you ask, because Virginia Tech doesn’t give up lots of points. The only chance you have is to beat them in a tough contest. A high scoring game will only end one way, with the Hokies on top. Three points? I don’t care that 70% of the public agrees with me, I’m not even worried.