Tag Archives: Free Gambling Advice

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick

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Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick: I’ve been a big supporter of the Bills, saying often that they aren’t as bad as people think, and sure, sometimes that has kicked me right in the butt (see the Titans/Bills game a couple week ago when the Bills were right with Tennessee until they gave up 300 points in the 4th quarter, again) and sometimes it’s worked out for me (see last week’s game against the Jaguars), but I think this match-up ends up being just a little too tough for the Bills.

Usually, if Buffalo’s defense needs to focus on just one aspect of an opposing offense (just the run or just the pass) they do a pretty good job of making that tough for their opponent. But this is Miami, and they will pretty much run on anyone, and they won’t abandon that idea. Even without Ronnie Brown, they still have one of the more talented run blocking offensive lines in the league, and a great running back filling in as the full time guy – you might remember him from the Saints – or pre-marijuana Dolphins, Ricky Williams. Yeah, Ricky is back, folks, and he’s better than ever – or at least better than you think.

The Dolphins have won 3 of their last 4, covering in 3 of those games as well. Over their last 7 games they are 5-2 straight up and against the spread as well, and they have given fits to some very good teams this season, New Orleans, New England, Indianapolis, etc. – they are a good team. Not always the luckiest, but good nonetheless.

The 3 points shouldn’t be too much, I like the Bills, think this one will be close, but 27-17 is what I’m thinking.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Football Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+13.5) @ Atlanta Falcons Football Pick: I knew you’d be able to get this game at a better number later in the week, because despite what Atlanta’s recent history suggests, everybody thinks this offense is too explosive to play a close game against a tomato can like the Buccos. But wait, just like that, I was wrong – the line actually went down from the 13.5 I got it at on Monday Night – and now sits from 11.5 to 13 – both of which I think are decent bets, but obviously not as good as the touchdown and two field goal loss by the Bucs that would still pay me for a win. Regardless, check out my thoughts and see which way you want to go.

The public liked Atlanta so much, 60%, that the line went down in their favor – hmmm… Vegas doesn’t know everything, but I’m just saying. Tampa had played well in 3 of 4 games before getting beat up by the Saints last week, 38-7. They played Miami tough (probably should have won), beat up on Green Bay (the 10 point win probably doesn’t tell the whole story) and were right there with the Panthers two weeks prior to that (they also got smoked 35-7 by the Patriots somewhere in-between there, but that was in England, what happen in England, well, sucks – just ask Avi from “Snatch”).  They’ve played solid football under rookie QB, Josh Freeman, and they can run the ball. That gets me excited.

The Falcons aren’t a double digit favorite team, as you can see by their 5-5 record, and their two wins by 13 or more points all season long. The Falcons beat up on the 49ers and Washington Redskins. Tampa has played 6 of their 10 games within 13 points of their opponent. Yeah, they have one win, sure, but a running game and a young passer with a couple solid receiving options – against the Falcons defense? – yeah, I like some points going up for the Bucs. I also like Tampa’s chances of slowing the Falcons offense with Turner out. Go Bucs!

Papas Picks: Week 10 NFL Underdogs! Lions, Bengals, Bills, Seahawks

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Last week I marched to my old ace drum, and what do you know, I came out aces, going 3-1 with my only ATS loss coming when the freaking Seahawks flew in late, just in the nick of time, taking a meaningless last minute interception to the house, getting Lucky Lester and the rest of the Hawks backers a win despite being outplayed throughout. But still, a tough loss, I’ll take 3-1 with a tough loss. You like underdogs? I sure do – here’s my top underdogs in Week 10.

Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: There’s not much to say about this one, except last time Detroit played the Vikings, the Lions played them tough. This is a 17 point spread, I’ll basically take anyone and 17 points – this one just proves it.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I get that extra half a point from 5 Dimes, I have to take this one. Lucky has said all along that these two teams are basically equal, and from what I’ve read, the home team doesn’t dominate this series. Cinci’s been great, I think they continue and keep this one close. 7.5, really? Has what Cincinnati has done meant nothing?

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Please. The Titans have won 2 in a row, that doesn’t mean they’re back to being the same team that won 13 straight to start the 2008 season. The Titans haven’t looked good enough to be a 9.5 point favorite against anyone, especially a Bills team that’s good at stopping an offense if they do just 1 thing. All the Titans do is run. This one will be closer.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Arizona Cardinals: Listen, the Cardinals have been so up and down this year, and not very good at home, I’ll even take the Hawks against them. Seattle is coming off a bye week, something their injured list desperately needed, and I think it helps them against the Cardinals. Last time out, the Cards did exactly what Lucky thought they’d do, beating up the Hawks in all aspects. But Seattle isn’t as bad as their record insists, and I think they come out with a little pride in a game that has basically come down to being their season.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick

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West Virginia Mountaineers (+10) @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats have been awesome this season, rocking an undefeated record still as the season winds down. They’ve played awesome under two different quarterbacks, and didn’t have a real tight game until last week when they beat UCONN by a pair.

West Virginia has had their ups and downs, but they’ve mainly beaten the teams they were supposed to while losing to a team they weren’t expected to beat in Auburn and a very equal team in South Florida. But now they play the Bearcats.

It seems like it’s been West Virginia in this situation over the years. Undefeated, headed into a tough conference game against a team they are better than, but still is tough nonetheless. These Big East teams just seem to beat up on themselves, which allows morons to claim their conference weak despite good records against the “good-strong” conferences. But that’s a different article. What matters here is that this Mountaineer team gets to turn it around and play upset-underdog in Cincinnati this weekend. Sometimes it’s easier to be the hunter – I’m just saying.

What really has me taking West Virginia in this one is the quarterback controversy in Cincinnati. It may just be me, but it seems like any undefeated team that has some little mental hurdle late in the season seems to stumble. In this one, starting QB Tony Pike has been medically cleared to play, but the back-up, Zach Collaros, has been lights out in relief of Pike. And thought Pike has been called the starter “when he gets back”, it looks to me like he is back yet Zach is still the starter. Hmmm… It’s something little, but maybe Zach is looking over his shoulder in this one. It’s a short week to prepare for West Virginia, but a couple Bearcat mistakes and this should be close enough for West Virginia to cover.

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Thursday Night Pick

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Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) Thursday Night Pick: Earlier in the week I posted that San Francisco was a tough match-up for the Bears, I’d like to divulge a little more information on that statement. To start with, any game on the road seems to be tough for the Bears. Away from Soldier Field, the Bears are 1-3, straight up and against the spread. Their only win and cover came against the Seahawks minus Matt Hasselbeck and a plethora of other Seahawks starters. And Seattle could have easily won that game, the Bears snuck one out by 6 points.

But that’s just a start, and that has nothing to do with the 49ers. Aside from their Pittsburgh win in week 2, the Bears have only beaten Seattle, Detroit, and Cleveland. Yep. Now, the 49ers have only one good win as well, but San Francisco has played tough against everyone aside from their blowout at the hands of Atlanta 10-45. The 49ers have lost their last 3 by 10 total points, and that was against Houston, Indianapolis, and a Tennessee team playing much better than their 2-6 record insists.

The Bears have played poorly against good teams, San Francisco has played well against everyone. Advantage 49ers. 3 of Chicago’s 4 wins came against teams that didn’t commit to running the ball, teams that don’t eat up the clock and put pressure on the Bears offense to score quickly. Teams that run the ball effectively and eat clock, Atlanta and Cincinnati, well, they made the Bears look bad.

The 49ers have some injury concerns, mainly Joe Staley at OT and Nate Clements, the teams’ best player in the secondary – but they showed over the last couple weeks that they can play well without those guys. When they can run the ball, the 49ers have covered easily – I don’t see them having much trouble running at home against an overrated Bears defense.

South Florida Bulls vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick

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South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+1)Free Pick: These teams are pretty dang equal. Both are 6-2, both have lost to just Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and both have played consistent football all season long, on the road, at home, everywhere. Neither team stuns you with their offensive attack, and while South Florida is a little faster on defense, they are a little smaller as well. Face it, these two teams are equal. But 54% like the road favorites (though favored by just a point).

The advantage that I see for Rutgers is the way they’ve played since Tom Savage took over at quarterback. The freshman gun slinger has been very efficient, made very few costly errors, and turned into a young leader or this football team. Since he started under center, the Knights are 6-1 with their loss being a 24-17 against 12th ranked Pittsburgh. The Scarlet Knights don’t throw interceptions, they don’t fumble the ball, and they control the clock. Sounds like a good bet to me.

South Florida might be the more talented team of the two, but they are known for their late season let-downs. Now, all they’ve done is lost to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, so it’s not like they’ve crumbled to bad teams, and a win against West Virginia helped salvage the last few weeks, but this is a team that hasn’t played well down the stretch of their schedules over the years. B.J. Daniels, like Savage, took over at quarterback for start QB Matt Grothe when Grothe went down with a season ending injury. He’s played well, but the team hasn’t performed better like Rutgers has.

I think momentum is on Rutgers’ side. They are playing at home against an equal opponent. The value is with them.

Clemson Tigers vs NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick

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Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick: As I expected, the spread value has moved away from Clemson, not surprising considering the Tigers’ talent and their success of late. It’s now at 8, but I got the Tigers at 7. Thus far, 65% of the public likes Clemson, and I imagine even more of them liked the Tigers as just a touchdown favorites. And get ready, because there’s more than a few methods to my Tiger-on-the-road pick where they are a paltry 1-3 so far this season.

Clemson has lost one pathetic game, getting beat by the Terps in Maryland 21-24. Aside from that, they’ve played pretty solid football against everyone. They’ve beaten Boston College, FSU, Miami, and Wake, those last 3 during their current 4 game winning streak. The Tigers had trouble against the heavy rushing teams they’ve faced this year, TCU, Georgia Tech, and Nebraska – all out-rushed the Tigers and did a solid job stopping the run.

That is not NC State’s offense. They give the ball to their talented QB, Russell Wilson, and they throw the rock. They’ve done so for over 2,500 yards this season, and Wilson has 24 touchdowns through the first 9 games. Clemson has turned to C.J. Spiller and the Tiger rushing attack, and they’ve reaped the benefits of one of the best runners in all the land. Defensively, they do a good job limiting opposing rushing attacks, and put pressure on opposing passers without having to blitz too often.

Lastly, and possibly most important, the Wolf Pack’s injury report has more patients than a high priced Hollywood rehab clinic. Already 10 players have been listed as “out for the season” – they have one more guy that is questionable, and another WR out indefinitely. If they can piece together a roster to stop C.J. Spiller and produce consistent touchdowns against the Tigers’ defense, they deserve to beat my pick.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami-Ohio Redhawks Pick

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Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+3) Free NCAA Pick: This game is bound to be a shoot out, a real passing attack, the clock will probably stop every other play – and thus points will be scored, no doubt about it. Both teams pretty much rely solely on the passing game. While Bowling Green’s quarterbacks have been more efficient, the Redhawks are right up there in passing yards as well. To win this one, they’ll have to cut down on the turnovers.

Miami has played a lot better football over the past three weeks while Bowling Green has struggled a bit going 1-1 over their last couple games. The Falcons beat the Buffalo last week, but it wasn’t smooth sailing. The Falcons needed 14 unanswered fourth quarter points to beat the Bulls by a point. Watching that game didn’t scream Bowling Green to me. They were outplayed, out-rushed, out-gained and it took a touchdown pass with seconds on the clock to get a win. They shouldn’t have won that game.

That being said, it’s not as if Miami is more consistent. They’ve struggled much of the season, they’ve only won a single game all season long, so it makes sense that most people see them doing what they’ve done all year, and losing another football game. But that’s not always how it works.

Miami-Ohio has beaten Bowling Green each of the last 3 seasons, and 9 out of the last 10 times these two teams have met. They are 8-2 ATS in those 10 games, and each of the last 3 seasons they have beaten the Falcons as an underdog. History doesn’t mean much, but it means something.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.

Toledo Rockets vs Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick

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Toledo Rockets (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas Free Pick: There was a type-o on my original selection in the Newsletter sent out Tuesday morning. I wrote that I picked the Rockets because the spread was way too inflated, but on the newsletter it highlighted the Chipps (+16) instead of Toledo (+16). This game has already moved to 17 in just about every book, 17.5 in a couple. But historically, that’s just way to high. Great value in the Rockets here.

Central Michigan have been favored by more than 16 points just once all season long, and they’ve played worse teams than Toledo. What does that tell you? Well, the cool-aid is wearing crazy Chippewa colors, and despite their solid start to the season, a win by two scores is still impressive, and I don’t expect much more from the Chipps.

The Rockets are 6-4 over Central Michigan over the last 10 seasons, but the Chipps are 4-0 in the last 4 years. Central Michigan has covered 4 out of the last 5 as well. Toledo is 3-1 O/U on the road this season. The Chipps are 2-1 O/U at home. Toledo is just 2-2 on the road, but have been in each of their 2 road losses late.

The one big question for me in this one is the health of #1 and 2 quarterbacks for Toledo. Both are questionable headed into Wednesday’s game, but they haven’t played in over 10 days, and the chances of one, if not both, being able to suit up on Wednesday Night is looking pretty good. I’ll gamble, I’m taking the Rockets.