Tag Archives: Football Picks

Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket vs Duke Blue Devils Pick

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-10) @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: Listen Duke has played admirably so far this season, and Georgia Tech has stumbled (not lost, but had trouble with) against teams that can put the ball in the air with success (see Miami, Wake Forrest, Florida State, and Miami). But can your really put Duke in that category of teams? I can’t.

I know the Blue Devils are one of the top teams in the ACC (record-wise), but who have they beaten? Army in Week 2, North Carolina Central, NC State, Maryland, and Virginia. None of those teams are holding little yellow jacket jock straps.

The Jackets have won 7 straight games, covering the spread in 6 of the last 7. Aside from the Miami game, they’ve outrushed every single opponent they’ve played. Duke has lost the rushing attack battle in 9 of their last 10 games – including giving up nearly 200 yards rushing to Carolina, a team Georgia Tech out-rushed by 300 yards.

Against common opponents (though means little, but in this case it helps my argument so I’m going to share it as the grain of salt it is) Tech has looked like the much better team. GT beat Virginia 34-9 in a game that was never close, Duke battle the Cavaliers and won by 11. GT beat North Carolina 24-7, Duke lost to their Tar Heeled rivals 19-6. GT beat Virginia Tech, Duke lost by 12.

The only red flag is that the Yellow Jackets haven’t played awesome defensively against solid ACC passers. I just can’t see that one aspect adding up to a cover here. I’ll take Georgia Tech.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Free Football Pick

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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-16) Free Football Pick: The last time these two played the line was (-10) in Detroit, and it was actually pretty close to a Lions cover. This time it’s (-16) and it’s not like people think of either of these teams any differently. They still think the Vikings are legit and they know the Lions smell like… Sour beans. So, I would say this line is inflated a couple points – it should probably be 13.5, maybe, at the very most 14 – but it’s on the move and already up to 17 at a couple books. But I’m not scared.

Okay, I’m a little scared – I don’t like taking anybody at -16. This is pro football and if you’re ever a 16 point dog you are probably a good value bet. But even good value bets lose. And the way Matthew Stafford has been playing, and the way Minnesota just got two weeks to heal up and prepare for a Lions team that just pissed away a 17 point lead against the Seahawks a week ago, I just have to go against value and stick with Adrian Peterson and company.

Only 3 of the Lions 7 losses are by 16 points or more. They lost by 18 to New Orelans in Week 1. They were tied at 21 with the Bears in Chicago at half time, but they were outscored 27-3 in the second half and lost by 24. And they got shut out by the Packers 26-0. Last time around, Minnesota fought back after being down 10-7 at half time to win by two touchdowns and cover the 10 point spread.

The Lions have been double digit underdogs five times this year (which is amazing all by itself) and in those five games, they’ve lost against the spread four times (which is even more amazing. As double digit favorites this year, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS.

So, all things considered, all values ignored, I’ll put a little on the Vikings expecting more problems from Detroit.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints MNF Free Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (+12) @ New Orleans Saints MNF Free Pick: It’s Monday Night Football, these are two good football teams, it’s an NFC South rivalry game, the Saints are coming off a lucky comeback win, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss, 12 points is just too much on that stage with those circumstances. The value is with the Falcons. I know New Orleans has been great, just short of unbelievable when you talk about the different ways they’ve found to win football games, cover spreads, and involve every single part of their football team. They are awesome to watch. Drew Brees is one of the better football players I’ve ever watched and I’ve tuned into a couple football games over the years. The Saints have a trio of running backs that are all solid in their own different ways, sometimes downright dominant. But the Falcons have their own punch, surely. Matt Ryan is a very good young QB, and Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Turner give him an impressive threesome of talent at skill positions. The Falcons lose something defensively in this match-up, but they will find ways to make plays to keep close. It’s a huge game for both teams, I like the Falcons coming off a beat down last week – that should give them enough of a kick in the tail pipe to be ready for the Saints. I know the big favorites have dominated the season thus far, but games like this just don’t get 12 points – that’s way too many.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Prediction

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: Now it’s very hard to beat a good opponent twice in the same season, but I just don’t see these two teams as equals. Last time out, the Packers did a good job of shutting down Adrian Peterson, but Brett Favre had wide open places to throw the ball, basically beating his old team single handily. I don’t see the Vikings getting  their rushing attack shut down again, especially against a Packers team that doesn’t normally do a great job stuffing the run. AP is one hell of a player, one of the most powerful and physical backs I’ve seen, and his running style should pierce the Packers front 7. Green Bay has beaten Minnesota 5 out of the last 6 times they’ve played coming into this season. But the Vikings are obviously a different team now. Minnesota is coming off a loss to the Steelers in which they should have won. They moved the ball better, were in position to put points on the board more, but just couldn’t find a way to get the points side of the job done. This is the first time Brett Favre will find himself back in Green Bay playing football, something that will surely be emotional for him. He’s always been better with emotions flying, I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Vikings and points? You bet, sign me up!

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans NFL Free Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3) NFL Free Pick: The Titans have obviously been brutal, at least lately. People forget that they challenged to win each of their first three games, losing by 3 to the Steelers on opening night, by 3 to the Texans in Week 2, and falling by 7 to the Jets in Week 3. After that it’s pretty much been a vertical slip’n’slide into a pit of lava. The Titans have lost three more since their defeat at the hands of the Jets, getting outscored 127-26. That includes one of the most lopsided defeats in NFL history, a 59-0 drubbing by the Patriots that included 5 touchdown passes in the 2nd quarter alone by Tom Brady. The Titans also lost 17-37 at Jacksonville to start off that three game self destruction. Yes, needless to say, it has been bad in Tennessee.

It hasn’t been flowers, sunshine, and sausage gravy in Jacksonville either. The Jaguars have 3 wins to their names, but most recently needed overtime to beat the Rams (that’s like losing) and prior to that were embarrassed by the Seahawks, of all teams, 41-0 in Seattle. Despite being a running team, Maurice Jones-Drew hasn’t been as effective as many expected, getting held under 70 yards in three games this year, including a 6 carry for 14 yard performance against Tennessee. MJD is still having a solid season, but he’s done that primarily when taking advantage of good match-ups against bad run defenses. The Titans insert Vince Young into the starting quarterback role this week, and that could go one of two ways, bringing the Titans forward or dropping them back. It can’t get much worse than 0-6, no doubt, and, at the very least, Vince Young has been a winner throughout his football career. Will it be enough to win by more than 3 points against the Jaguars? I think so. I think the extra week off helps the Titans, gets them off the snide, and back in the winner’s column.

Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers Prediction

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Oakland Raiders (+17.5) @ San Diego Chargers Prediction: The Chargers aren’t a great football team. They aren’t in the Patriots, Giants, Colts, Saints, Vikings, type group. That pretty much makes them a bad-value-bet as a double digit favorite. When that double digit favorite moves over 3 scores (a couple touchdowns and a field goal) they move even farther away from value and into a whole new category of auto-fade. Can the Chargers beat the Raiders by 3 touchdowns? You bet. It’s just not a great bet to happen. Oakland is bad, no doubt, but they aren’t the Rams. Defensively they have the talent to make some big plays, rush the passer, force the Chargers into some mistakes. San Diego doesn’t have a run-stuffing defensive front, so if Oakland can run the ball even a little bit (which I believe they can) they have a pretty good shot at keeping this one close. It’s never one of the safest bets in the world to take the Raiders, they’ve lost four games by 20 points or more so far this season. But they’ve also won twice, and kept their opening night game close against San Diego, despite terrible offensive play from their side. Defensively, they should keep this closer than 17. Any team (+17.5) against San Diego has solid value.

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals Football Pick

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Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-10)Football Pick: Many sharp bettors see this game as great value for the Panthers. They have a rushing attack that should be able to get some yards against an Arizona front 7 that has basically eliminated rushing attacks all season long (ranking #1 in stopping the run) and Arizona is coming off a huge win, almost surely ready for down game. And this line, in my opinion, is too close to wager too much, but I like the Cardinals despite the inflated spread. Definitely, this one can’t be considered a value bet, but that doesn’t mean I don’t expect the Cardinals to cover. What I see from Carolina is a team that should be 0-fer the season. They are only so lucky to have Tampa Bay and Washington in back to back games a couple weeks ago. Anybody that watched either of those games knows that the Bucs and Skins will beat themselves if you just give them time. Carolina tried, but they couldn’t lose those two games. Arizona isn’t going to beat themselves, which could cause trouble for the Panthers’ chances in this one. Arizona has found a bit of a rushing attack with Beanie Wells, and they always have Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and a young fella named Kurt Warner to distribute the ball. The Cardinals are a good team, last season wasn’t a fluke. The Panthers are a turnover waiting for Jake Delhomme to happen, and the Cardinals definitely have enough playmakers to take advantage of that. Great value? No sir, but if I have to pick a side, my money would be on Arizona.

Papas Picks NFL Week 7: Only Underdogs! Bears, Chiefs, Falcons

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So, I went 2-1 last week, and look to, at the very least, keep that 66.6% rocking hard as the season moves forward. I’m taking dogs here, nothing but dogs from here on out, and going to show you that if you pick right, the dogs can make you money. I have another trio of games this week, expecting three outright wins but I’ll take the points. Here goes!!!

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Chicago Bears (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A lot is being said about Cedric Benson’s 1st game against the Bears since they cut him, blasted his work ethic, and basically told anybody that would listen how Ced was never going to amount to anything despite them spending a Top 5 pick on the guy. So at least one Bengal is going to be motivated come Sunday. But that’s not enough for me, and I think Jay Cutler has one of his “accurate games”, you know, 1 interception or less, carving up the opposing defense (though Cinci has been good this year on that side of the ball). I like the Bears to win on the road, I think their running game finally gets going a little bit, but not enough to make those owners that picked Matt Forte happy. Not that much.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, the Chargers are much, much worse. Seems like enough for me, but wait, I have more. The Chargers defense hasn’t show the ability to stop anyone (even last week, they stopped Denver a bit, but Kyle Orton still came back to slice them up just enough to give the Broncos an easy win). If your defense can’t get off the field, then you can’t consistently cover road games where you are favored by 4.5 points. It could happen, sure, but the good money is on KC, and I’m a good money bettor.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is hardly a true underdog, as a majority of the public likes Atlanta at most sports books, but they are still 4 point dogs, and in Dallas where the Cowboys have a lame-duck coach, their offensive coordinator seems to be slipping, their huge investment “best” receiver is probably still out with ouchy tummy, and their defense hasn’t been able to put pressure on anyone, it’s just hard to like the Cowboys. Tony Romo should turn it around a bit this week, but Dallas can’t lock down on opposing offense’s #1 threats, and thus Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should find wide open spaces in the friendly confines of Cowboys Stadium. If that big ass TV screen doesn’t get in the way, and if they can keep their focus on the game and off the hundreds of cheerleaders acting as cage dancers, I think the Falcons pull away from Dallas late. There it is.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins Week 7 Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Washington Redskins Free Pick: I know 80% of the public likes Philly in Washington, but I still have to lean on the Eagles. I wouldn’t bet the world on this game, it’s probably not nearly as lopsided as everyone thinks – but the things going on in Washington just can’t be ignored. I know the Redskins rate out really well against the pass, but who have they played? What frightening offensive assault have they faced since Week 1 when Eli did them dirty? Stop me when I get to one, St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Kansas City – exactly. Ratings shmatings. I like the Eagles to come out with a little bit of piss and vinegar in their cleats, and after losing to the freaking Raiders I think they’ll fix some things, both on the field and in their minds. Me and 80%, yikes, yeah, I have to take the Eagles anyway. Something about switching your play calling duties to a guy that not only didn’t have a job two weeks ago, but one who had just started watching the Redskin’s games in the last two weeks. Sure, I always say I could do a better job calling plays, but I’m really just kidding when I say stuff like that, the clowns in Washington actually believe that garbage.

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants Free NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants (-7) Free NFL Pick: I think one of the best teams in football will rebound against a one-dimensional Arizona team. I think the Giants pass rushers will pin their ears back and get to Warner a handful of times – everybody knows, if you can get to Kurt you can take down the Cardinals. People look at last week’s game against the Hawks and have to see a 27-3 game that Arizona dominated, but in reality the Hawks just sucked offensively. It was pressure, sure, but the Cardinals will have to bring more guys if they want to penetrate that offensive line in New York. That will open up big plays for Eli, and as much as I’ve been on the guy over the past few seasons, calling him overrated among other things, he looks like a Top 10 QB in the league these days, and his confidence and will to win has me appreciating him a lot more, even though he has a gooey saddest boy face on the sidelines. No running game against the Giants spells trouble, Justin Tuck and company spell’s sack city.