Fantasy Football Facts: Undervalued NFL Players

The following 10 players have been very undervalued in fantasy formats so far this off-season. Mock drafts and ranking lists have been formed and these are some of the guys that I see getting the shaft. If you are being tricked into writing these players off, think again, and see if I can’t show you why.

  1. Roy Williams #11 Detroit Lions: After his third season, Roy was pegged a great pick and saw himself at the top of the receiver rankings all over fantasy football pre-season rankings. After a great start (20 catches, 335 yards, 3 TDs in his first 3 games) Roy struggled to find consistency. Then, in Week 13, Roy went down for the season with a sprained knee. At that point, Roy had hauled in 63 passes for 836 yards and 5 touchdowns. Little do people realize that he was basically on track to match most of his 2006 numbers. During his 3rd season, Roy snagged 82 balls for 1310 yards and 7 scores. He was on pace for 84 catches 1100+ yards and 7 scores before getting hurt last year. Shhh…. Don’t tell anyone, he’s still a great prospect with his elite speed, size, and hands. And while the uber passing attack of Mike Martz is out of town, that really shouldn’t hinder Roy and Calvin Johnson’s ability to find success in their opportunities. Teams don’t need to pass 35 times a game to be successful through the air – and in limited chances, you can bet the air attack will center around the two talented wideouts instead of getting spread around to Furrey and McDonald as much. He’s getting pick at the end of Round 4 or in Round 5, and right there, he’s going to be a steal.
  2. Michael Turner #33 Atlanta Falcons: There was a lot of hype surrounding Michael Turner’s move to a starting role, but that has seemingly found it’s way back under the radar, and in almost every draft I see 20 or more running backs are being taken ahead of Mike. I understand that the Falcons are not the offensive juggernaut you’d like your starting running back to play for, but they aren’t as bad as they are getting discredited for. I’m forgetting numbers with Turner, because I’ve seen him run and that’s good enough for me, and his numbers (as he’s always been a back-up) really can’t do him justice. He’s a damn good runner with lots of power and straight-ahead speed. He really attacks the hole. The Falcons passing game will be better this season because they have everybody back from last season. Matt Ryan could get the starting gig, but even so I expect better play in Atlanta now that Bobby Patrino’s gimmicky offense is back in college. Even with a 3.9 yard average per carry, the Falcons rushing attack showed promise. Jerious Norwood had a nice per-carry average when the Falcons gave him a chance. Warrick Dunn struggled but he’s small and old. Being behind as often as they were, Falcon runners didn’t get the chances that other backfields did (385 carries was 4th lowest in the NFL) and now that they have a real NFL staff in place, and a powerful runner, I see the Falcons having a lot more success on the ground. Mike will show a lot of people that his hype is real, and right now, I would feel comfortable taking Turner as a Top 15 running back.
  3. Darren McFadden #5? Oakland Raiders: Talk about a young player that has seen his fantasy value hit a snag. There were times when McFadden was being talked about as if he were Adrian Peterson with more speed, but that has quickly been squashed by his relatively fragile frame. As a tall running back at 6’2″ there are a lot of people that question if McFadden, just 210 pounds, can hold up in the NFL. Some drafts have McFadden dropping well past the 5th round, while there are rankings out there that put Darren at right around 40th in the running back rankings. Please. The Raiders have a solid rushing attack and Lane Kiffin is well versed in getting superior athletic running specimens in the right position to give defense hell. McFadden is a great runner with the “it” factor desired from a skill position player. He may not rush for 1500 yards right off the bat, especially playing in Oakland where it’s rare to find a lead in the 4th quarter, but those that think McFadden will just waste away because of his long and fit frame are crazy. Finishing with 1000+ rushing yards and 10+ total scores is close to a sure thing from my perspective. I would put McFadden in my Top 20 running backs, especially in a PPR league where McFadden should get plenty of screen passes and short routes against linebackers that he is much faster than.
  4. Nate Burleson #81 Seattle Seahawks: I am not going to guarantee you anything, but I guarantee Nasty Nate will outplay his draft position. Wait, yeah, I am guaranteeing something, because A- I’m going to be right and B- if I’m not right the worst thing that can happen is that someone writes me telling me how wrong I was. Nate had a great second half of the season, Deion Branch has some questions surrounding his health, and the Seahawks will continue to be a pass happy offense. Nate started just 11 games and produced 10 receiving touchdowns on the season. He scored 6 touchdowns over the Seahawks last 7 regular season games. He’s now a seasoned veteran in the Hawks offense and his speed is flashy. Without Shaunna Alexander around, the Hawks will find it easier to disguise their passing attack. Nate will likely be the #1 target in Seattle, and it hasn’t mattered if you are Bobby Engram, Darrell Jackson, or Deion Branch – that position has bread success in fantasy circles over the years. Take Nate late and celebrate.
  5. Chad Johnson #85 Cincinnati Bengals: 93 catches, 1440 yards, 8 touchdowns – I know numbers can mislead, and those digits would tell you that Chad was a consistent point producer, when in reality he climbed on the back of a couple very good games and was mediocre otherwise. Still, this guy has fallen out of the top 10 for some reason (personality?) and is being WAY undervalued headed into this season. If you are drafting early, feel safe in making him your top receiver and you won’t go wrong. Chad may have some craziness in him, and while that will almost certainly follow him around all season long, he will still be one hell of a player and the Bengals should be much better this season than they showed last year. If you get Chad as the 10th receiver taken, you pulled a nice little trick on the rest of your drafters.
  6. Ronnie Brown #23 Miami Dolphins: 991 total yards and 5 touchdowns in 7.5 football games – that’s absurd. He was on pace for 2000 yards from scrimmage and double digit touchdowns and he was really the only offensive threat on the team. I don’t think Miami will be successful (playoffs are obviously out of the question), but with a coach that the team respects and a guy in Bill Parcells that breathes confidence into a football team, I like the Dolphins chances of playing with a little more confidence offensively, and Ronnie Brown is the best player on that team, so he should be featured, ACL or not. Right now, this kid is being rated way below his value, FFToday’s Crank score has him out of startability – but even the experts aren’t always right, and grabbing Ronnie Brown to be your 3rd running back will quite possibly give you a 3rd runner that has a chance to outscore your first and second round picks. Some may call that a risk, but I call that one hell of a pick.
  7. Phillip Rivers #17 San Diego Chargers: There are some rankings that put Phillip at 20th overall. That’s a joke. Rivers may throw marshmallows all over the field, wobbly duck-mallows, but he’s been successful, and never more than late last season and into the playoffs. People are riding little brother Eli all the way to a Top 10 QB, but the young QB that really carried his team on his back during the playoffs was Phillip. Torn ACL and all, Rivers toughed it out and nearly finished off the Patriots before they were had by the Giants. Rivers has better numbers than Eli, two straight seasons with 20+ touchdowns, and just 9 and 15 interceptions respectively, not the high number of picks that Eli continues to toss. Counting the playoffs, Phillip went through an 8 game stretch where he tossed 14 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. Rivers is a very accurate passer and he knows that’s his strength. But that’s not what I’m excited about with this young hurler. What has me high on him is the way he became the leader of the Chargers during the playoffs. With a guy like LT on the team, there had always been people saying that this is a RBs team. Not anymore. Phillip played through a tough injury when LT couldn’t. He put it all on the line and he took down the Colts with a 3-touchdown performance to get to the Conference Championship. Rivers will have a better season than Eli and you can get him 3 or 4 rounds after the younger Manning. Do the math.
  8. Thomas Jones #20 New York Jets: Everyone’s favorite to be labeled “BUST” last season. Thomas Jones was supposed to come into a playoff locker room and take them to the next step with his tough inside running and overall ability. Needless to say, that didn’t happen. But I’m not so sure it was all his fault. Thomas still has a lot left in the tank, and the addition of Allen Faneca should prove to be the potion he needs to find his legs once again. He’ll never be a big touchdown guy, but with New York’s offensive line maturing and having Faneca added to the mix, Thomas Jones will be a fantasy rusher once again. He can be had late, so feel free to add him as a 3rd or even 4th running back with starter upside. You could also take a huge gamble on him and pick him late as one of your starters and load yourself at a couple other positions like WR and QB. I love getting high upside, sure-thing producers as back-up runners, so that’s where I’ll be going for Jones, but I have a feeling he’ll be starting on my squad sooner rather than later.
  9. Vince Young #10 Tennessee Titans: Yeah, I might be the first guy to ever say this, but Vince Young is being underrated this time around. I’ve been the guy saying don’t pick Vince, and I think I was right over the past two seasons – but this time around, feel free to go with the Titans signal caller. After a few seasons, I can only see Vince taking a huge step forward this time around. Less is expected from him, and the Titans’ new offensive system should fit his style better. Young still doesn’t have the passing prowess that he needs to be a Super Star Quarterback in this league, but it’s closer than many give him credit for. He had a tough season last year, but his rushing yards and the threat of his legs will only help him mature, as he gets more accurate. The Titans don’t have great receivers, but Algae Crumpler should help Vince grow. A sure handed monster of a tight end is a young quarterbacks best friend. This is going to be one of those years where you don’t have to blow an early pick to grab a solid quarterback late. Vince will be a good buy low win later candidate.
  10. Rudi Johnson #32 Cincinnati Bengals: Rudi has certainly fallen off the fantasy cliff because of one down season. Once known as the second sure thing behind Shaunna Alexander (maybe because of his 3 straight 1300+ 12TD seasons), Rudi had all of his value crushed by a terrible year in Cincinnati. He tried to play smaller last season, attempting to keep his knees healthy, but all that did was lose him the power confidence he had rushed with his entire career. One Santa sack of hustle and hard work in the off-season built his 20lbs of muscle back and even made him faster. Word is (word is doesn’t always mean all that much in this business) that he looks even faster than he did at his lesser weight last season. The reason I believe this word is because of confidence. If you don’t have the confidence to take a hit, or deliver one for that matter, then you won’t hit the hole with any sort of conviction whatsoever. Rudi, like Thomas Jones, is a guy that lost all his hype in one single go-around. There are times when forgetting last years numbers are the smart thing to do, and this is one of those times.