Tag Archives: College Football Picks

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Texas Longhorns vs Nebraska Cornhuskers NCAAF Free Pick: I don’t see what about the Cornhuskers has them at a two touchdown underdog in this one. They’ve basically had one bad game all year long, and aside from that one piss poor outing, a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech in which they turned the ball over more than Jay Cutler, they’ve lost two games by a total of three points, a 2 point loss to Iowa State and a 1 point loss to Virginia Tech. That’s not really two touchdown underdog worthy is it?

Against like opponents, the Cornhuskers have held their own. They beat Kansas by two touchdowns while the Longhorns beat the Jayhawks by three touchdowns. The Huskers beat Oklahoma 10-3, the Longhorns won their tilt with the Sooners 16-13. Both won against the spread and straight up against Missouri.

They Cornhuskers have out-rushed all but two of their opponents on the season, the same can be said for the Longhorns. The Cornhuskers have a superior defense, allowing just 11 points on average this season. The Lonhorns have the superior offense, blasting weaker teams late in the year, and finishing the year averaging 43 points per contest compared to the Cornhuskers 25.6.

But Nebraska plays their toughest football against the best teams. They beat Oklahoma, fought Virginia Tech until the very end, and beat up on Kansas. The last two games in this match-up the Longhorns have won by 2 and 3 points. Nebraska won ATS in both games. Texas has more injury concerns headed into Saturday’s Championship game, and that last little push makes the Cornhuskers a great bet in my cocky opinion.

Texas Longhorns @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+13.5)

Ball State Cardinals @ Western Michigan Broncos Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Ball State Cardinals @ Western Michigan Broncos (-10) Free Pick: The Ball State Cardinals are 1-10 straight up and 5-6 ATS. As a 9.5 or higher underdog they are 4-1 ATS on the season. Ball State has 10 losses, but in 6 of those games they’ve finished within a touchdown of their opponent.

This line probably is probably is a little bit inflated, I have to be honest. I don’t know if you can quite get as similar as 1-10 Ball State, but the Broncos have played a couple poor teams with bad records, and while they’ve come out on top in a few, they’ve won against the spread only twice as favorites this year. One of those wins was against Miami of Ohio, almost if not just as sub-par as Ball State.

Ball State’s strongest part of their offensive attack is their rushing game. That doesn’t seem to bother Western Michigan much. What I mean by that is that Western Michigan usually gets out-rushed, and it’s made no difference in winning or losing games – they’ve won and lost while getting pummeled on the ground. What seemingly hurts the Broncos is when a team can get them through the air. In each of their last two losses, they were out-gained through the air. They lost both ATS as well.

Western Michigan can throw the ball well, they have an extra 4 days to prepare for this game on Tuesday, and that should be enough if being the better team wasn’t enough already. It’s not a gimmie, as Ball State has owned this match-up over the last 5 years (4-1 SU and ATS) but fighting for their 6th win, I think Western Michigan wins by double digits.

Clemson Tigers vs NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Clemson Tigers (-7) @ NC State Wolf Pack Free NCAA Pick: As I expected, the spread value has moved away from Clemson, not surprising considering the Tigers’ talent and their success of late. It’s now at 8, but I got the Tigers at 7. Thus far, 65% of the public likes Clemson, and I imagine even more of them liked the Tigers as just a touchdown favorites. And get ready, because there’s more than a few methods to my Tiger-on-the-road pick where they are a paltry 1-3 so far this season.

Clemson has lost one pathetic game, getting beat by the Terps in Maryland 21-24. Aside from that, they’ve played pretty solid football against everyone. They’ve beaten Boston College, FSU, Miami, and Wake, those last 3 during their current 4 game winning streak. The Tigers had trouble against the heavy rushing teams they’ve faced this year, TCU, Georgia Tech, and Nebraska – all out-rushed the Tigers and did a solid job stopping the run.

That is not NC State’s offense. They give the ball to their talented QB, Russell Wilson, and they throw the rock. They’ve done so for over 2,500 yards this season, and Wilson has 24 touchdowns through the first 9 games. Clemson has turned to C.J. Spiller and the Tiger rushing attack, and they’ve reaped the benefits of one of the best runners in all the land. Defensively, they do a good job limiting opposing rushing attacks, and put pressure on opposing passers without having to blitz too often.

Lastly, and possibly most important, the Wolf Pack’s injury report has more patients than a high priced Hollywood rehab clinic. Already 10 players have been listed as “out for the season” – they have one more guy that is questionable, and another WR out indefinitely. If they can piece together a roster to stop C.J. Spiller and produce consistent touchdowns against the Tigers’ defense, they deserve to beat my pick.

Texas Lonhorns @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Texans Longhorns (-8.5) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Pick: I like the Cowboys, like their confidence and numbers, I just don’t think it’s real. Not against good teams anyway. The Cowboys are 6-1 but they’ve had to fight a very easy schedule for wins, Baylor, Texas A&M, Rice, and Grambling don’t strike fear into my heart, and you should consider that when you’re looking at those 6 wins. 6 wins, sure, looks nice, but against who? The Cowboys’ best win? I’d say a marginal Missouri team. Texas, on the other hand, they haven’t looked like a Top team in the nation this year either, but they have won, and they’ve had to go through Oklahoma, Texas Tech,  at Missouri, and a pretty decent Colorado team. They are the better team here, no doubt in my mind, and with Dez Bryant suspended for the season, and more importantly this game, that game breaking presence isn’t going to help bail the Cowboys out. This game could be over quick, or it could take a little while, either way there will be a time when Oklahoma has their spirits broken, and that’s a good sign for a Texas cover. The Longhorns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Texas is 10-0 in their last 10 games against Oklahoma State, they are 7-3 ATS in those games, 4-1 ATS on the road. The last two games have been decided by 7 total points.

UCLA Bruins vs Oregon State Beavers Free NCAA Pick

Posted on by

no banners

UCLA Bruins (+10.5) @ Oregon State Beavers: I think these two teams are awfully close talent-wise, and despite losing 4 straight games (also 0-4 ATS in those games), the Bruins aren’t out of it. They have some solid players, and defensively they should be a little bit of a challenge for Oregon State’s run-game. I know the Beavers have played well lately, even going to the wire with USC, but the Bruins have had some tough luck and I feel like that’s about to change. Football karma definitely goes around. As a 10.5 point underdog, the value is pretty good. The Bruins have played pretty solid teams in their 4 straight Pac-10 losses, and I think they’ll be ready for this game because of those. The Beavers are solid, no doubt, but UCLA is being underrated here, the value is with them.

Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Kansas Jayhawks @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6) Free Pick: First of all, rarely do Texas Tech Red Raider games come down to 6 points, so if you think the Raiders are going to win, a 6 point spread shouldn’t worry you at all. And it doesn’t worry me. I know Kansas had a nice run to start the season, but you saw how out-matched they were last week when Oklahoma absolutely blew them out of the water. Texas Tech isn’t Oklahoma, but they do have the offensive ability to crush the Jayhawks. What makes me like the Red Raiders even more are the words from Mike Leach’s mouth about how the Raiders are playing like piss because of their fat little girl friends. Awesome. If that doesn’t get their attention, nothing will. After beating up on Nebraska, the Red Raiders fell to Texas A&M, and they fell hard. I think Leach’s antics and just being a better football team gets them back on track this week at home, then Jayhawks just happen to be the team in the way. Texas Tech has taken each of the last 3 meetings with Kansas, and 6 out of the last 7. Last year the Red Raiders smoked the Jayhawks, 63-21. They can put up some points, and since Kansas has yet to slow down any reasonable offense whatsoever, I can’t see them doing anything to slow one of the most dynamic offenses in college football.

Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons Free College Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Wyoming Cowboys (+10.5) @ Air Force Falcons: This is the year Wyoming gets back at Air Force for taking them out in each of the last three seasons. Both teams run the ball really well, and while Air Force is a little more disciplined and a little more efficient on the ground, Wyoming throws the ball a little better and does a good job with the little things. Plus, I just think these teams are too even for a 10.5 point spread. Wyoming comes in playing their best football of the season and fixed some tough of the issues they had earlier in the season. Basically, Austyn Carts-Samuels has taken over the starting quarterback job for good, and in the last three games he’s really given the Cowboys an air threat. I think his play keeps this game close.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Free Pick

Posted on by

no banners

Oklahoma Sooners (+3.5) @ Texas Longhorns: Now I seriously doubt the 3.5 will matter much when all is said and done, but the fact that I can win even if the Sooners lose by a field goal makes me feel just that much better about my selection. I like the Sooners here for a couple reasons. Coming into the season, I thought Oklahoma was the better team. Now they have already lost twice, and haven’t looked brilliant so far this season, but at least they’re battle tested. They’ve had a tough start to the year, but that’s because of injuries and some very good opponents. BYU is a very good veteran team, Miami has loads of talent and has played very well in some big games, and even Tulsa can play with most anyone in the country. That’s 3 games against better opponents than Texas has seen all season, and to be honest, I haven’t been that impressed with the Longhorns when I’ve seen them play. Colt hasn’t been nearly as sharp as he was last season, and the running game has some questions with injuries coming into this game. I also like that the winner of this game has been the road team 3 straight seasons. Now Texas has covered 4 straight, and ousted Oklahoma in 3 of the last 4, but this one has a little different feel. National Title hopes are basically out of the question for Oklahoma, while a win for the Longhorns would give them a leg up in the race for the Championship. Oklahoma has nothing to lose, and can only relish in the chance to upset the Texans and do their part in destroying their rival’s chance at glory. The underdog Sooners out to ruin it all, I kind of like them in that role. This should be a great one, but I’ll take the road dog and the points!

Cincinnati Bearcats vs South Florida Bulls Free Pick

Posted on by

This Thursday Night free football pick has two undefeated Big East teams squaring off in what should be one hell of a game. The spread is tight, the teams really fly around well, and the Bearcats have climbed all the way to 8th nationally without one single win against a ranked opponent – I guess that’s what 5-0 and some big passing numbers will do for a school. But how will they go this Thursday?

no banners

Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5) @ South Florida Bulls: This game is tough, no doubt, you have history, you have this season, and you have Thursday Night Football, all three things are working their magic on my decision here. The Bearcats are 9-1 in their last 10 games, losing on New Years Day to the Virginia Tech Hokies 20-7. South Florida is 5-0 on the season, but late season breakdowns have been their MO. The home team has taken the win in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these Big East foes, and Cincinnati has covered the last 5. The Bulls’ star quarterback, Matt Grothe, is out for the season, while Tony Pike has been very busy making quite the name for himself while throwing for just under 300 yards per game in Cincinnati this season. This game is likely to be very close, as neither team looks likely to budge on Thursday. The Bulls have a little more speed on defense, but Tony Pike and company can put up some points offensively. What has me taking the road dog in this one is South Florida’s Thursday Night history. It’s tough to come in and pay mid-week, a lot of teams struggle with it, and the Bulls just happen to be one of those teams. They’ve been embarrased two straight seasons by big Thursday Night upsets, and I think Cincinnati just happens to be the better team this time around. I’ll take Cinci to do some damage on ESPN’s Thursday Night Football.

Free College Football Picks: Week 6

Posted on by

It’s hard to imagine that we’ve plowed through five weeks of college football already, but sure enough, we step right into Week 6 this time around for my free picks. Five weeks, lots has happened. During my 10-3 Week 5, Oklahoma effectively removed themselves from title-contention by losing to the Hurricanes in Miami over the weekend; so much for coming back to win a title, eh Bradford? Well, this week is sure to have more upsets – there are some huge games on the horizon. Notre Dame plays again, so there should be more terrible calls doing over unfortunate Irish opponents. I’m one game under .500 heading into the week, here goes my predictions.

no banners

Nebraska Cornhuskes (-3) @ Missouri Tigers: The Tigers are at home, rated higher than the Cornhuskers, and still a 3 points underdog. Something’s weird here. What is it, you ask? Well, the Cornhuskers are the better team, but since they’ve lost once already (a single point loss to Va Tech) and Missouri is undefeated, the Tigers hold the higher ranking. Forget that Missou has struggled against powerhouse programs like Bowling Green and Nevada, and forget that Nebraska has smoked everyone besides their one point loss to the Hokies. But here’s the deal, it’s not like Nebraska has beaten anybody good either. Whomever takes this game now has one solid win on their resume. I think that’s Nebraska – they’re more ready.

Auburn Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+3): There’s a certain time where hype hits down week and down week hits reality. That might be this time around for the Tigers. After finally smashing into the Top 25 after a 5-0 start to the season, a solid Razorbacks team hosts Auburn in an early Saturday Morning showdown. Now the road team has won 6 of the last 7 between these two programs, but I’m taking the home dog here. I think Arkansas puts up enough points, and sooner or later the luck runs out on the Tigers. Two tough home games in a row probably takes it’s toll here.

Michigan State Spartans (-4) @ Illinois Illini: I don’t think the Spartans are good, or even worthy of being favored on the road, this line doesn’t have great value or anything, but the Illini are bad. Even after a big win over their “in state big brother” program, I still think the Spartans have enough in the tank to get a double digit win in Illinois.

no banners

Oregon Ducks @ UCLA Bruins (+6.5): Now this game will almost certainly go to 7, it’s already up a half point and still 70% of the public bets like the Ducks despite being nearly a touchdown favorite on the road. UCLA is better than they’ve played, and still have just one loss, one which came against a very physical Stanford team. So, they should be better prepared for the Ducks rushing attack. The Bruins have a very good defense, one of the more underrated units in the Pact 10, and while Oregon has been very good over the last three weeks, I think they have trouble against the Bruins. The spread is ridiculous, I know that much.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels (+6.5): The Rebels are a very talented team that had a lot to lose last time they played on National TV, they ended up showing exactly how to play as poorly as possible while losing to South Carolina on Thursday Night a couple weeks ago. But they are talented, and now have basically nothing to lose as a big home dog hosting the powerhouse Crimson Tide. I like the Rebels to turn it around and at the very least, keep this one close. I’ll take the home dog and the points.

Indiana Hoosiers (+7) @ Virginia Cavaliers: I think Indiana is better than Virginia. I’ve seen both teams play and still think Indiana is a little underrated. I’ll take them and the points.

no banners

Duke Blue Devils (+15) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: I think Duke has one of their best teams ever, now that being said, they are still not all that good. That being said, neither is NC State. Duke’s coming off a pretty good game against Va Tech last week, and I think they’re a nice value getting more than two touchdowns. The last three games in this match-up have been very close contests, and 6 of the last 7 have been NC State wins, but by a touchdown or less. I think that trend continues, if Duke doesn’t upset outright.

Arizona State Sun Devils (-20) @ Washington State Cougars: Fade the Cougars. Listen, the Sun Devils should put up 35-42 points on the Cougs. The Cougs won’t be scoring more than twice. That’s a cover. That fits with my #1 rule in betting college football, fade the cougars.

Florida Gators (-9) @ Louisiana State Tigers: The Tigers shouldn’t be a Top 5 team, they’ve been lucky to win 3 close games this year. I’m thinking Tebow is back, if he is, this is a 20 piecing by the Gators. I like Florida a lot.

Arizona Wildcats (-3) @ Washington Huskies: I like the Dawgs, they just struggle against teams that run the ball with physicality. The Wildcats won’t stop running the ball, no matter how much the Huskies bait them. Do the Dawgs have a chance? Sure, they have good coaches and one of the truly special players in college football, Jake Locker. But the Wildcats have the better team, and they should run the ball early and often to oust the Huskies.