Free NFL Pick Week 4 Review: 2004

Hi Folks,
Lucky roared out of the gates this week, going 5-2 in the morning games. Too bad they played the afternoon ones! Lucky Lester watched in horror as he went 1-4-1 to close out the predictions. The record for the week ended 7-6-1. The super picks were a pitiful 1-3. Lucky Lester is still up on the year at 32-24-4.

It was an unusual week with an incredible ten home game for the underdogs. These home dogs went 6-3-1. Lucky Lester, unfortunately, was down with the favored visitors, parity; the bettor’s worst enemy once again reared its ugly head. This scrambles the perceptions of the strong vs. weak in the NFL.

The season is a quarter over already! So, without further ado here is…

Lucky Lester’s Quarterly Power Ratings for the NFL

1. Patriots (3-0) – The only easy choice on the list. Eighteen wins and counting.
2. Eagles (4-0) – McNabb is a legitimate MVP candidate and a great defense to match.
3. Seahawks (3-0) – Young defense has allowed only thirteen points.
4. Colts (3-1) – Awesome offense but questions remain on defense.
5. Vikings (2-1) – Daunte Culpeper and Randy Moss are difficult to stop.
6. Jets (3-0) – QB Chad Penningotn is efficient and RB Curtis Martin is rejuvenated.
7. Falcons (4-0) – Michael Vick and a much-improved defense make the Falcons formidable.
8. Broncos (3-1) – Champ Bailey leads a retooled defense and Jake Plummer wins games.
9. Ravens (2-2) – Ravens defense was pushed around by Chiefs but should rebound.
10. Jaguars (3-1) – Young QB Leftwich continues to improve and the young defense is tough.
11. Steelers (3-1) – Duce Staley restores fear factor to Steelers running attack.
12. Cowboys (2-1) – Old man Vinnie Testaverde unlikely to last if he keeps throwing so much.
13. Rams (2-2) – Rams need a big lift with a win at Seahawks this week.
14. Titans (1-3) – McNair should be back for Packers on Monday night.
15. Panthers (1-2) – Stephen Davis could return this week, as Panthers need to return to ball control offense.
16. Chiefs (1-3) – Offensive line dominated the Ravens and defense finally woke up.
17. Lions (2-1) – Young offense should continue to improve under head coach Steve Mariucci.
18. Giants (3-1) – Kurt Warner and his teammates look for their fourth victory at Dallas this week.
19. Packers (1-3) – Favre returns as do key members of defense this week.
20. Saints (2-2) – Will improve as Deuce McAllister is poised to return.
21. Texans (2-2) – Texans put together their franchise first, two game win streak.
22. Raiders (2-2) – QB Gannon’s season may be over and reserve QB Kerry Collins threw 3 interceptions in first start!
23. Browns (2-2) – RB Lee Suggs keeps the Browns in games but defense has holes with injuries.
24. Redskins (1-3) – Have talent to move up when they embrace Joe Gibb’s system and Portis gets untracked.
25. Bucs (0-4) – Defense is solid and looks for new QB Simms to ignite offense.
26. Cardinals (1-3) – Team is playing hard for Coach Greene, just not enough talent on roster this year.
27. Bengals (1-3) – RB Rudi Johnson had big numbers last week but rest of team has little to cheer about.
28. Chargers (2-2) – Rookie QB Phillip Rivers will start soon and next year they could compete.
29. Bears (1-3) – Bears team is riddled with injuries but Coach Lovie Smith is future star.
30. Dolphins (0-4) – Too much turmoil and too little talent for this team to bounce back.
31. Bills (0-3) – Foolish, foolish Bills traded next years first round draft pick to Cowboys.
32. 49ers (0-4) – Who are these guys? Will be fortunate to win a single game!

Lucky Lester is excited about his picks for week five. Lucky intends to pad his outstanding 32-24-4 record with winners. Look for it here on Friday.
Feel free to drop old Lucky a line at luckylester@hotmail.com to let me know of you’re success this football season.

WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks

Free NFL Pick Week 3 Review: 2004

Well folks, it is time to get aboard the Lucky Lester Express, which is steamrolling through the NFL season. My super picks were 3-2 and I was 8-5-1 overall this week. This was my third straight week of picking winners and my overall record on the season is 25-18-3. If I had a day job I would quit it!
Now let’s take a closer look at how week 3’s picks played out.
On the winning side:

Super Picks:
The Texans (plus 7.5) finally rewarded my loyalty with a stirring outright win on the road against the stumbling Chiefs The Texans kept it close and then outgunned the sorry Chief defense in the final moments for victory.

The Eagles (-4.5) continue their mission of destroying every opponent in sight. McNabb is putting up MVP like numbers every week. The young Lions were simply outclassed at home.

The Jaguars (+6) young defense throttled The Titans passing attack and knocked QB Steve McNair out of the game. Fred Taylor showed signs of getting on track as well which could effect my future considerations.

Regular winners:
The Raiders (-3) revamped defense shutdown Tampa Bay’s impotent attack. You know things are bad in Buccaneer land when Bill Shroeder emerges as their leading receiver!

The Saints (+7) rode a strong performance from inconsistent QB Aaron Brooks, to an outright victory on the road against a suddenly old Ram squad. Aaron Stecker, subbing for the injured Deuce Macalister, delivered over a 100 yards rushing.

The Cardinals (+10) hung tough in Atlanta and it took another freaky super human play by Michael Vick to narrowly defeat them. The Cardinals are 0-3 but are 3-0 against the spread.

The Seahawks (-10.5) destroyed the 49ers as I predicted. The Seahawks stingy young defense, 13 points allowed in three games, is a surprise even to me. The Niners were shut out for the first time in 420 regular season games. Way back when Lucky Lester was, well, a heck of a lot younger 34 years ago.

The Steelers (+1) were able to defeat the weapon deprived Dolphins on the road by protecting rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with a hundred yard rushing performance from Duce Staley.

Now let us take a look at what went wrong.
On the losing side:

Super Picks:
The Bengals (+3) were unable slow down Jamal Lewis, their offense was overwhelmed by the Raven defenders. Carson Palmer turned the ball over and the Ravens took full advantage.

The Vikings (-9) allowed a late meaningless, for them anyway, touchdown that blew the spread. I wish teams would be a bit more considerate of our wagers! Rex Grossman played a strong game for the Bears before he was injured. Grossman is done for the year. Thomas Jones appears to be the real deal for the Bears at running back.

Regular Losers:
It was a bitter disappointment that the Packers (+6) injury riddled defense was torched for five first half passing touchdowns by Peyton Manning. Two Packer cornerbacks were announced injured just prior to kickoff. Favre responded with four touchdown tosses but it was not enough in an entertaining shootout in Indianapolis.

The officials stole my money! That is the way I view the Redskins (-1) loss. They were defeated not by the Cowboys but rather by two outrageous bad calls. Time ran out for the Redskins at the Cowboy 20 yard line and they lost by a field goal.

The Browns (+3) were beaten badly by a Giants team that I have severely underestimated. Kurt Warner is born again! He shredded the Brown’s defense with his pinpoint passing.

Finally there are the ties, when the games end right on the number. This is called a Push. This was the case when the Broncos (-10) dominated the Chargers at home. Missed opportunities resulted in the 23-13 victory.

Lucky Lester is enjoying getting rich this season. Hope you are too. After three weeks, trends are emerging and I am excited about my Week Four Picks. Feel free to drop old Lucky a line at luckylester@hotmail.com to let me know of you’re success this football season.
WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks

Free NFL Pick Week 2 Review: 2004

Like last week, the second week of the NFL season brought both good news and well… other news. While I came down from the 10-5-1 high of week one and found a much more average week two at 7-8-1, leaving me at 17-13-2 for the season, Lucky enough I guess. This week was tough; let me tell ya! The odds makers were leaving me looking for ins and outs in places I’d never thought of. I actually found myself believing that Jeff Garcia was going to play well two weeks in a row… what was I thinking? So, many of the games were up in the air, but a few looked sure enough to wager some big cash on. I called these my week 2 super picks. Every week I pick four games that I’d surely bet on. The previous week I was 0-4 making me wonder if I actually knew what I was talking about while I was looking for a place for my wife’s grandma to sleep. I figured hey… everyone has an off week and surely I was part of that everyone, so I took four games and bet a bundle. As it turns out, I came up with a little extra spending cash and a 3-1 record that afforded me some optimism that Grandma may soon get her own place once again! For a closer view take a look at my Super Pick recap.
Short Super Pick Recap: 3-1

Redskins-Giants: I had a feeling this bet was too good to be true. Those tricky Redskins, they had me up in praise after week one, imagining Joe Gibbs return from retirement to be nothing short of magnificent. There’s a chance that still might happen, but if week two is any indicator of the rest of the Redskin’s season, there’s no way the Skins will even touch the top of their division. The Skins looked bad when Mark Brunell was running the show against the Giants, but I couldn’t imagine seeing anything worse than Patrick Ramsey’s attempt to produce a victory. When Brunell went off the field in a crippled limp, I thought, maybe this is a blessing in disguise. Unfortunately for me, the only thing in disguise was Ramsey, who before this weekend, had disguised himself to be an NFL quarterback. Tricked me! And tricked me into betting money on the Skins. At -3, I thought they were as safe as bets get, now I wouldn’t take them at +3.

Jets-Chargers: I knew this bet was money in the bank, which I am now very grateful for because I actually have some money in the bank. The Jets were a steal being only 3-point favorites against the Chargers. I must admit the Chargers put up a closer number than I had imagined, but they were truly never in the game after halftime. Brees, as I had predicted, played a mistake-ridden game and was anything but the flawless leader that he was in week one. Flutie came in at the end and did what Doug Flutie does best and made something out of nothing. The Jets won by 6 and gave me my first Super Pick win of the season.

Seahawks-Buccaneers: Leave it to the Seahawks to make me worry. That high-powered offense that I thought would run and pass all over the Bucs was anything but high-powered. Luckily for me the Tampa Bay offense is as bad as any other team in the NFL. This truth, teamed up with the fact that the Seahawks improved defense is stingy, had me smiling when the game finally ended with the Hawks on top 10-6 and covering my spread by a tiny 1.5. The Seahawks have covered both times this year, and both were wins on the road, a big change from a season ago. We’ll see if Seattle can get their offense going next week against the winless 49ers. For now, I’ll just take my money and run.

Colts-Titans: The Colts got going on the ground in the second half, and then they began to roll. Indianapolis looked good running Edgerrin James for over a hundred yards against a very good Titan defense. Peyton and his crew really wanted this game and it showed as they took over late and never gave Steve McNair a chance, as they didn’t allow him to throw for a touchdown. The banged up secondary stepped up big for a Colts team that now finds themselves at 1-1. This game marked the end of a week that brought my overall Super Picks record from 0-4 to 3-5. Not too shabby.

Other News!

Now that the good news is over and done with, here comes the “other news” as I like to call it. So if I finished my Super Picks at 3-1, and the entire week left me at 7-8-1, easy math would tell you that I didn’t do all that well on my the not-so-super-picks in week two. As if you didn’t know, 4-7-1 isn’t as exciting as last weeks 10-1-1, but you’ve gotta take some punches from time to time.

The Broncos(+3) looked more like donkeys as they failed to score a touchdown against a Jaguars team that obviously finds barely winning exciting. Jake Plummer didn’t bail me out this week.

The Ravens(-3) took it to the Steelers who looked better when rookie Ben Roethlisberger came in for the injured Tommy Maddox, but couldn’t get close to the 30 points Baltimore put up. I knew Ray wouldn’t let the ravens start 0-2.

The Texans(+3), who disappointed me in week one, pulled off more of the same in week two. The defense allowed points like they were free and the Lions took their second win of the season.

The Bears beat the Packers(-8.5), I repeat; the Bears beat the Packers… in Green Bay no less. I almost bet on this game but the spread was just too high. Boy am I thankful I left this one alone. Favre looked old and the Bears, well they looked young. Lovie Smith finally tricked Thomas Jones into playing like the first round draft pick that he was, and yes, the Bears won.

The Saints(-7.5) defense allowed Ken Dorsey to drive down the field for scores. San Francisco score 27 points, a number I thought they’d have trouble accumulating all season. They won, those lucky Saints, but they didn’t cover for me.

I took the Falcons(-2.5) against the Rams after St. Louis barely squeaked passed the Cardinals in week one. Looks like that was one of the good decisions I made this weekend. Vick looked brilliant, rushing for over 100 yards and throwing for nearly 200. The defense looked good, holding Marshal Faulk to under 30 yards and intercepting Marc Bulger twice.

The Chiefs(-6) broke my heart for the second week in a row, losing to a Stephen Davis and Steve Smith-less Panthers team that looked a lot better then they did against the Packers last Monday Night. The ugliest performance of the year goes to Jeff Garcia who made me understand why San Francisco let him go.

The Browns(+4.5) fell one half of a point short of covering against the Cowboys, who also failed to look stellar, but got their first win nonetheless.

The Patriots(-8) took a step backward but beat a feisty Cardinals team and covered in the process. These Patriots are dangerous, often finding a way to play to the level of their opponents.

The Bills(+3) defense was great for the second straight week. Their offense was uglier then last week. Luckily for me, Drew Bledsoe threw a wounded duck into the end zone with 1:20 left in the game and after a couple tips Eric Moulds caught a seemingly meaningless touchdown. Seemingly meaningless for the outcome of the game of course. On the bright side the seven points brought me to a push.

The Dolphins defense played great against the Bengals(-5), but they couldn’t get the win because their offense couldn’t put up points to save their lives. Unfortunately for me, the defense did manage to give up only 16 points, which just wasn’t enough to lose by more than the 5 points I needed them to lose by. Cincinnati got the win, but I got the loss.

In Monday Night’s big showdown between the Eagles(-3) and the Vikings, the Eagles gave me my 7th win of the week. McNabb looked superb and as accurate as I’ve seen him since his career started. Terrell Owens and Randy Moss each caught touchdowns, but the Eagles looked better than the Vikings. Philly took the game by 11, covering the spread by 8 and making me happy for placing that last minute bet. After the game Randy Moss and Terrell Owens hugged and made up. I heard Randy telling TO, “Okay you can compare yourself to me now. You’re worthy!”

I was Lucky enough this weak to escape the injury bug that was everywhere in week two. My amazing record however, wasn’t. But, no need to fret, my Super Picks were 3-1 and my overall record is still soaring high at 17-13-2. Look out week 3 here I come, gonna send the kids to college, or buy me a new Flat Screen TV. Hold it a second… gotta get Grandma back in her own place first!

WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks

Free NFL Pick Week 1 Review: 2004

Lucky Lester back atcha once again. I thought I’d throw out a little recap of week one in NFL action. In the big picture I came out of the blocks hot and roared to a record of 10-5-1 record and failed to pick only five of the nfl’s first sixteen games of the season. Unfortunately, ole Lester can’t be right all of the time so lets take a closer look at where I went wrong with my picks.

My Super Picks fell way short of my hopes and I paid for it. Remember a little bet where I suggested that mortgaging your Grandma’s house might be a good idea? Well… I now refer to that bet as, “Sure Grandma, you can live with us!” This bet was also known as the Falcons/Niners game. I seem to recall almost throwing up I mean who’d a thunk the powerful Vick propelled Falcons wouldn’t slide past the spread of -3.5 against the sorry San Francisco squad that played Ken Dorsey for quality minutes for God’s sake. I thought for sure the Falcons would step up in this game and prove that Vick could dominate in his third year. But all they could do is muster up just enough points not to cover and leave me cleaning out the spare bedroom so my grandma could move in… my wife’s grandma that is! You didn’t think I’d put my own grandmas mortgage on the Falcons game did ya? Hah, not a chance! Unfortunately my three other Super Picks followed suit, as the poorly named section ended up at 0-4.

Short Recap of Super Picks

Falcons-Niners: Them damn Falcons, heart breakers indeed. Vick looked more like the Vick of his rookie year and less like the All-Pro Vick everyone thought would show up. He still mustered a win out of the cluster, but stuck me on a small couch in the living room. Tears fill my eyes every time I think about how long Grandma will be staying. There’s always next week… right?

Chiefs-Broncos: So, I underestimated Plummer a little. But truly, I underestimated Shanahan’s knowledge of his own team. He trades away one of the top three most promising backs in the league and still rushes for tons of yards with Quentin Griffin. He’s good. Champ Bailey made his efforts felt with an interception and multiple plays that showed why he’s the best corner in the league. The Chiefs might rebound next week, but the Bronco’s might look to good to bet against.

Texans-Chargers: Wow, is LaDainian Tomlinson good or is he good? The Texans were getting unlucky bounces every snap and that contributed to their loss, but LT is something else. Drew Brees didn’t lose the game, which is a great improvement from last years Charger attack. I still believe in the Texans, but if Drew Brees plays mistake free football, I can see the Chargers winning more games than I had previously thought possible. We’ll see how long he keeps that up.

Ravens-Browns: I still can’t believe Ray Lewis let his defense lose to the Browns. The Browns, you know the team that used to be the Browns was the Ravens, now the Browns are the Browns and the old Browns are the Ravens. Whew! Anyway, 20-3, wow, I never saw that coming. Look for Ray to find the real Ravens team this week in practice and hopefully trick them into coming to play this Sunday. So the account took a hit, next week right? There’s always next week.

As for the rest of my picks, well I was 10-1-1. The Colts pushed against the tough Patriots in New England and the Ram’s looked like the Raider’s of yester-year, barely beating the stink’n Cardinals. Every other game I picked was spot on. The Titans’s beat Miami as some sort of cruel punishment, like they haven’t had enough problems since Ricky went postal! The Raiders lost by just enough to make me a winner anyway. The Buccaneers looked like a mess letting Clinton Portis walk, or run all over them, missing Warren Sapp as I had predicted. The Jaguars just about gave me a heart attack in the ugliest game played so far, but still managed to sneak past the Bills in the closing second with a touch down pass to rookie Earnest Wilford. The Jet’s beat the Bengals by more then the 4.5 points they needed to make me a happy man. Both teams looked like offensive juggernauts didn’t they? The Lions gave me hope by winning outright over the Bears, ending their “away from home” losing streak. The Seahawks flew over the Saints in New Orleans letting fans know that they can win anywhere even in the state of a million beads and doubled distractions! The Eagles shellacked the Giant’s and as predicted Kurt Warner felt the effects of the blitzing Eagle defense. The Cowboys didn’t have enough offensive power to stay close to the Vikings, and Terrence Newman talking trash to Randy Moss didn’t help their chances as Moss abused him for two touchdowns, (heheheheh). And for win number ten, well the Packers galloped into Carolina and stomped on the Panthers then added injury to insult by breaking Steve Smith’s leg. Ouch! But at least Lucky came away unscathed. My 10-5-1 is quite the start, and who cares about Super Picks (sniffle, sniffle) anyway?

WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks