San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos Pooint Spread Pick: Sorry for the late post. This game was unavailable all week long, showing up on Saturday at one sportsbook. It’s still the only sports book where the game is available, and the line is 4.

The value is with the Broncos – I know that because they have a good defense, better than the Chargers have, and they are at home and getting 4 points – that’s one more than a field goal and that can make all the difference. The Broncos are 3-1 at home (their only loss coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers) and they’ve beaten New England and Dallas at home in Denver. It’s not like they’ve only played powder-puffs. But with all that being said and realized I’m not taking the Broncos, oh no.

First of all, when two teams are close to or equal, I almost always like the team that lost the first game to pull the second game out. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in a row. But that’s not it, last time these two teams played, I actually think San Diego played a better game than Denver. Offensively and defensively (key areas if I don’t say so myself) I think the Chargers were more impressive. Special teams (and namely Eddie Royal) won that game for the Broncos with two return touchdowns. I don’t buy that happening again this time around.

Not that history means much, but the Chargers have owned this series, especially when it matters most. San Diego has won 5 of the last 7, including last season when a playoff spot was on the line. In that game, the Chargers ran Denver (and Coach Mike Shannahan) right out of the building, something to the tune of 52-21… You bet.

If you take Kyle Orton out and put Chris Simms in, you can see where I’m coming from. I hate giving the Broncos and their solid defense 4 points at home, but I’m going to have to do it.