Purdue Boilermakers (+4) @ Michigan Wolverines Football Pick: Luckily for you, this spread has made a change for the better since Monday Night when I made my selection. I have the Boilermakers at +4 but they are already getting +6 at almost every book. Still, 75% of the public likes Michigan to cover at home in this one.

Fortunately, I think the public is confused, and the man is happy as a clam at high tide about the whole thing. See, the public (or so I guess) sees 5-4 Michigan hosting 3-6 Purdue, and they think, “favored by less than a touchdown, give me that football powerhouse, Michigan” – but that’s where they’re all wrong. Sure, the Wolverines got the Fighting Irish when they were on the other side of that luck thing, and that was a good win. But their other four wins have come against less than stellar competition, Delaware State, Western and Eastern Michigan, and good old Indiana. How’s that 5-4 resume looking now? And Michigan has really struggled lately, losing 4 of their last 5, including a beat down last week at the hands of Illinois, of all teams.

Purdue may have 6 losses, and on any given day they can play like piss, but aside from last week, they’ve been very competitive against some pretty good teams. Purdue has lost by more than a touchdown just twice this season, losing to Notre Dame and Oregon by 5 points combined. They got kicked around last week by Wisconsin, but that puts them in a good place to come out and fight hard against Michigan. I’ll take Purdue, the better team of the two.