After an undefeated 3-0-1 start to the pre-season, I’m feeling a little too confident in these late summer exhibition games – but since when is cocky bad in this business? This week I have a few winners that I really like and it all starts with Friday Night’s Raiders-Titans game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing. The Cowboys 2nd and 3rd units can’t stop anyone and the Broncos don’t have a collective group that can be considered a defense – they are more like a slow down. Denver can’t stop the run or the pass and their special teams isn’t looking all that flattering either. Dallas has a lot of strengths, but I still see Denver putting up a couple touchdowns on Saturday. Believe it! This one is sailing over the spread.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

The Patriots just don’t try to win these games. They won’t play most of their big names more than a couple series, and the Bucs have a solid all around team with some good young players looking for experience. They’ll have some good players putting in work, and with Garcia, Luke McCown, Chris Sims and more, they’ll have plenty of experienced quarterbacks to lead the way. I like the Bucs to win this home game easily.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest. I like Chris Perry, but even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend. The Lions have decent back-up quarterbacks and Kitna is an accurate cat. Also, with 4-5 solid receivers and a couple running backs looking to make an impact – I like the Lions offense to put up some points in the zoo. A couple big plays could split this game wide open, but I like the Lions to be the guys making those plays.