NFL Free Picks: Week 8

7-7 last week, and that looks like a push to me. You all know how I love pushes – ugh. Anyway, I didn’t lose any ground in the old win loss column, so things could have been worse. So far I have 13 games this week (Cowboys line not out yet) – check out the goods in my NFL Free Picks for Week 8. Good luck to all! 

Oakland Raiders (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: Tough call for me, definitely. You all know what I think about the Raiders sans Lane Kiffin, but they played so well last week against the Jets. From what I see this game will be a defensive struggle, and I’m betting that 7 ends up being too much. I know the Ravens played a really good game against the Dolphins, and I don’t think either team is legit, but defense keeps this close.

Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Carolina Panthers: This is why. I love the Panthers, but only if they can run the ball effectively. I think the Cardinals will prove a tough opponent against Carolina’s ground game, and when that is the case, the Panthers are just average. I expected the Panthers to win the West, but I didn’t think they’d start the season 5-2… Now it’s looking so. The Panthers lost to Tampa and Minnesota – the Cards aren’t that good against the run, but they are solid. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Maybe the books know something I don’t. Don’t get me wrong, the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they played last week, and the Bucs let a bad Seahawk team hang around and they ended up losing that game ATS – still, no Tony Romo, no defensive backs, a defense that is playing soft – I think Tampa does enough against Brad Johnson to make it another tough day for America’s Team. 

Washington Redskins (-7) @ Detroit Lions: Detroit lost by less than a touchdown in each of their last two ball games, and should have beat the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 6 – still, I don’t think they match up well with the Redskins, as Washington should run all over Detroit. Here’s some food for bet, the Lions are 0-2 at home, giving up 48 points to the Packers and losing 34-7 against the Bears.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+2): Key mistakes destroyed the Dolphins chances in Week 7. They didn’t play well overall, obviously a little frustrated by what happened in Week 6. I thin the Dolphins step back into the winners circle this week and the Bills go to 5-2. Miami has shown me that they are solid, and when they play mistake free football they can win tough games. Buffalo is a better match-up than Baltimore was, and I think they win this one at home. 

St. Louis Rams (+8) @ New England Patriots: I think the Rams are a tough match-up for New England. Matt Cassel is prone to mistakes, he gets sacked a lot, the Rams defense is a completely different group now that Little is back in action at defensive end. The Rams have their running game exploding back to life and the whole team seems to have more confidence now that Haslett is the head guy. I don’t know what to think of the Patriots “one good, one bad” game situation they’ve been rocking, but they are on cue to play a bad one. That doesn’t mean jack to me, though, and this team is still a solid group. I just think all of their injuries start to catch up to them this week against the Rams. Tough call, but I’ll take the Rams with a little more than a TD. 

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints: These overseas games are always weird. Last year the Giants barely won in a gross game, and I don’t know what to expect this time around. I’d say go with the Chargers because of the injury woes attacking the Saints, and how Colston and Shockey obviously aren’t back to full health. Oh, and Bush is out. The Chargers will likely get back Chambers, and LT is getting healthier and healthier. Same with Antonio Gates. Vincent Jackson has been really good, and Phillip Rivers is having a great season for the Chargers. Then again, this game is in another country. I’d stay away, but if you’re looking for an edge, I’d take the Chargers – I think they are 6 points better than the Chargers on your normal day. 

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5): I like 12.5 I guess. Shoot, the Jets as a big favorite is scary, but I don’t see them playing like garbage after losing an OT game to the freaking Raiders. They are better than that, if still a little overrated. I don’t like the Chiefs without Larry Johnson (and who knows what’s happening there), Damon Huard (out), Brody Croyle (out), or even completely healthy. I think Thomas Jones will run all over the Chiefs and Tyler Thigpen must not be that great because the Chiefs seem to be exhausting all sporting options to pick up another quarterback. It’s never good to throw in a guy that hasn’t seen a playbook for your team, even if it’s a guy like Daunte Culpepper that is better than every single guy you’ve started all year long. Weird. J E T S – winners. 

Atlanta Falcons (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles haven’t won coming off a bye week since the ’04-’05 season. The Falcons can run the ball well and while the Eagles started off stingy against the run, they allowed 145 yards to Clinton Portis and 101 yards to Frank Gore – both having nice yards per carry. I don’t think Turner will burn the Eagles for big yardage, but he’ll do enough to keep Atlanta close, and remember, the Falcons are coming off of two weeks to prepare for Philly as well, and they’re a huge dog – they’ll need some help to win, but I think this will be close. 

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): The owners fined Winslow 250 grand for questioning the staph infections in the organization over the past few seasons. What a joke. The rest of the players have to think that’s a joke. The rest of the players also have to think that their season is on the line and that sitting one of their best offensive players is down right stupid. They’ve played one good game all season. Without all the crap going on with Cleveland, I might like them to cover here, but the Jags are coming off a bye and they’ve won 3 straight coming off a break. The Jags are without Matt Jones, but with Jerry Porter getting two weeks to get healthy, they might not be losing anything at all. Cleveland hasn’t looked good enough (sans one single game) for me to take them here. I don’t like this line, but I just can’t take that ridiculous organization – not a huge play, but a slight lean here. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9.5): The Bengals are winless, and that’s scary because they are more talented than that. However, they lost probably their best linebacker for the season. Carson Palmer is not playing this week. Houston can’t mess around, as they saw what happens when they allowed Detroit right back in the game last week. Still, Houston is solid and they should run all over the Bengals. Take them to run away with this one. 

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): The Steelers in Pittsburgh seems like a slam dunk at -2.5, yes, even against your World Champion New York Giants. Honestly, I think the Giants have played just as many mediocre to bad games as they have good games. Think about it – they couldn’t put away the Redskins in week 1, settling for field goals too often (mediocre). They played a terrible Rams team in Week 2, so you can’t tell much there. They barely beat the Bengals in OT – (mediocre to bad). They killed a terribly lost Seattle team, but played very well there. They lost to Cleveland in a laugher (bad). They let San Francisco hang around all day, even though the Niners were turnover machines (mediocre). Maybe they aren’t a shoe in for back to back titles after all, huh? I like Pittsburgh to show us that one more time this weekend. 

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): You’ve found my weak spot, Mike Singletary. That guy is my favorite player of all time – bar none. I think his intensity, honestly, and respect from his players gets the 49ers going in Week 8. They aren’t great, and they won’t be all year long, but they are going up against the Hawks in his first game as the main guy, and that’s enough for me. Seattle is brutal. Without a couple broken play runs late last week in Tampa, they would have been under 100 yards of offense – that’s a joke. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): The Titans should lose one coming up here, but I don’t think Bob Sanders is coming back this week – that pretty much ends the Colts hopes. Betting against Peyton Manning as more than a field goal favorite seems like a poor move, but I’m not betting against him. I’m betting against his offensive lines ability to slow the Titans rush and I’m definitely betting against the Colts defensive front shutting down the Titans run. I think 20 will win this one, and Tennessee can get that in their sleep against this Colts defense – just run the rock.

2 thoughts on “NFL Free Picks: Week 8

  1. Pingback: Early NFL Week 8 Yardstick Predictions - FanYard Football Predictions

  2. I like the thought lines for most of these picks, LL. I have yet to decide who to take in most of the games, but your analysis is always appreciated. Regardless of who I end up going with at FanYard, you always provide me with some food for thought.

    Speaking of food for thought, looks like most people at FanYard agree with your Bucs-Cowboys assessment. Only about one-third are taking America’s team to win that game.

    Looks like Carson Palmer is done for the season and the Steelers have deactivated Santonio Holmes for the Giants game. Holmes was busted with pot in his car and an investigation is on. Bet he wishes he lived in British Columbia:-)

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