Alright, so I’m coming off my worst week of the year. I’ve been consistent all season with pretty solid weeks every time out, but I stumbled into quite the little pot hole last week. I had a tough time with my dogs, and a couple close contests that didn’t have a cookie crumbling in my direction. This week is bound to get me back on track – I see some good ones out there.

New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-2.5): The Saints have five losses, four of which are to teams that rely heavily on, and have a successful rushing attack. The only solid run-first team they’ve beaten is the Atlanta Falcons, and they split with them this season. Washington, Minnesota, Carolina, and Atlanta – 4 run first teams that can eat up the clock. What else do those teams have in common? Solid defenses. I think Chicago wins this home tilt with the Saints. The Bears are 5-2 as a favorite this season, and while they haven’t played great football of late, they have a defense that can cause problems for any offense. I’ll take them here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: I want to take the Falcons here, I really do, but after looking it over I just can’t. I know Atlanta is 5-1 at home, and the Bucs are just 3-4 on the road, but when you look at the teams Atlanta struggles against (losses to Carolina, Tampa, Philadelphia) – really, the only tough defensive team they beast was Chicago, and that was a tight one. The Bucs are coming off probably their worst defensive performance of the season, and that means they’ll probably play a solid game this Sunday. Now Atlanta is good, no doubt in my mind, but the Bucs can limit a lot of things the Falcons do, and they have enough weapons offensively – it will be a tight one, but I like the Bucs even though that means a sweep of the Falcons. If one thing would deter me from taking Atlanta, it would be the fact that beating a good team twice is a very difficult thing to do. Still, my lean is on Tampa Bay.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Alright, I missed on the Bengals last week, they really let me down against a Colts team that has found their rhythm. However, that is not why I’m betting against them this week. I’m not that kind of guy. The Redskins lost two of their starting offensive linemen in the game against the Ravens, and while that will hurt them, I still think they run the ball 35+ times against the Bengals defensive front. Why? Because that’s how they win. If Jim Zorn will pull his head out, he’ll see clearly that his recipe for success resides in the cleats of Clinton Portis. They can run against the Bengals and they will. Now Cinci has played pretty well against the NFC East this season, tying the Eagles, getting close to beating the Cowboys, and going to overtime with the Giants – but counting their win, they’ve only finished within a touchdown of their opponent three times. If the Redskins clamp down defensively, this could be an easy win for me.

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Houston Texans: The Titans have struggled against other defensive juggernauts, losing to the Jets and their amped up run defense, struggling against the Bears, and winning by a field goal in Baltimore to another tough defense. The Texans are solid, but they do not own a defensive dynamo by any stretch of the imagination. The Titans secondary is very good – they take advantage of mistakes through the air, and if the Texans have been one thing, it’s a mistake prone air assault. I don’t like this line because it makes me feel like Vegas knows something I don’t – and in about 75% of those instances, I end up on the wrong side of the bet. However, Tennessee doesn’t have troubles with teams like Houston, they haven’t lost a road game yet this year, and they’re coming off of two explosive rushing days against the Lions and Browns. More than a field goal gets me a win here, so I have to take it.

Detroit Lions (+18) @ Indianapolis Colts: Some may pretend that the Lions lose a lot when Culpepper goes down, but I’m not so sure. I think he’s the best QB in Detroit, but the guy hadn’t played for over a year, and it’s going to take him a while before he’s a factor in my betting cycle. It is said that both Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton should be ready to play by Sunday, and I actually think that gives this team a boost. Either guy has actually played pretty well when given the chance. Also, the Lions will attempt to run the ball on this undersized Colts defensive line. Bob Sanders will undoubtedly have something to say about that, but I still like the Lions here. 18 is too much. The Colts aren’t as good as they were last week, and the Lions play better football on the road. Don’t be confused, either, nobody on that Lions team wants to be 0-16, they will be playing hard from start to finish.

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: If the Packers had one thing going for them it was the fact that they had only lost games to teams in the playoff hunt, and then they got sniped by the Texans in Green Bay by a field goal at the buzzer. Yikes. Still, the Packers beat up on teams like the Jaguars. And by that I mean bad teams. I would still say that the Jaguars are worst than every single team the Packers have lost to this year. Am I saying that they won’t piss this game away? Yeah, actually, I’m saying the Packers win this one by a couple touchdowns and further prove how up and down they can possibly be. Lost in their unsuccessful season is Aaron Rodgers’ brilliant play in his first season at the helm. He’s played through injuries and carried the team for long stretches. They get to 6-8 with a win over the Jags, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran the table after that.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+6): I think the Chiefs are a tough match-up for the Chargers – as awkward as that feels coming off the finger tips. The Chiefs probably should have won the last outing, but they stumbled a bit toward the end, weird. Still, they lost 20-19 to a Chargers team that still had something to play for. They might not be eliminated from the playoffs, but believe me, they don’t have much to play for in San Diego (besides their checks of course). The Chiefs are a tough match-up because it’s their run defense that really stinks, and the Chargers can’t seem to run efficiently against anyone. That’s also something I never thought I’d say, but I’m not one to mix words and there it is. LT hasn’t rushed for more than 5.5 yards per carry yet this season, and he’s only broken the 5 ypc mark twice, against New Orleans in England and against Oakland in Week 4. Gross. The Chiefs do alright in the secondary, and they have an offense that can throw and run the rock. They are better than 2-11, believe it or not, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they ousted the Chargers on Sunday. So, I’ll take them as a 6 point dog.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Miami Dolphins: The San Francisco 49ers have won three of their last four – yes folks, that’s not a freaking typo. Not only that, but they played within a yard or two (depending on who you ask, Mike Martz or the refs) of a win at Arizona, and despite the 13 point difference, they actually played well against the Cowboys, just some tough turnovers got their goat. This team is playing well. I know Frank Gore might be out for this game, and that’s a big hit, but I still think their defenses is playing well enough to keep Miami out of the end-zone most of the game. Shaun Hill is a solid quarterback, just like I said last year, and just like I said when I asked why they hell J.T. O’Sullivan was getting the starting nod – (answered promptly by my uncle, “Mike Martz is NUTS!” – fair enough). The Dolphins have won 6 of their last 7 as well, so they are no slouch. Still, these teams are a lot closer than their records insist, thus I’ll take the big dog.

Buffalo Bills @ N.Y. Jets (-7): I buy the Bills collapse, I don’t buy the Jets fall from grace. I wasn’t ready to make the Jets a Super Bowl team anyway, but they are better than the last two weeks. Just like the Eagles did, I bet the Jets come out hot at home on Sunday, and beat a reeling Bills team that has lost every single game they’ve played lately (aside from a win over the Chieftons). The Jets as a touchdown favorite is not something I’m excited about, but the Bills are lost in the mucky-muck, and with a possible coach turn-around coming soon, and J.P. Losman at the helm, going against a defense that should absolutely shut down the run – I like my chances for a win here.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ St. Louis Rams: The Seahawks are bad. The Rams are much, much worse. Both have two wins, but I see Seneca Wallace rushing for about 80 yards in this one, every single attempt seemingly killing the Rams’ defenses chance of getting off the field. I see Maurice Morris having a strong game, the kid runs hard and the Rams don’t do well against running backs that run hard. Seattle fans won’t be as lucky this week, because they’ll actually win this game. That might get them out of the Michael Crabtree sweepstakes, but that might not be the worst thing. Offensive line, Hawks brass, offensive line. The Seahawks struggle rushing the passer and thus they have a poor secondary rating. But that shouldn’t matter against Marc “I should be out of a job but my back up is an old man too” Bulger, because the Rams can’t find air success against anybody. There it is, a game that puts to question my “Always bet against Washington sports” motto. Oh well. It’s always a funny thing when a 2-11 team is a road favorite – that should tell you something about the Rams right there.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (-3): The Cardinals have lost one game at home all season long, a one-score game against the Giants. Exactly. This is a great line for Cards backers, and the Vikings defensive strengths shouldn’t hurt the Cardinals offense too much. It will be interesting to see how personal the defensive front takes to stopping Adrian Peterson, but even with a big day from AP, I imagine that the Cardinals pull this one out by more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: The smart money may be on the Ravens here, but my money is on the Steelers. Their defense is just as good, and they have more offensive weapons. If the Steelers win that means a sweep of the Ravens this year, the Steelers haven’t done that for quite some time. Not only that, but the home team almost always wins this battle – and Baltimore has covered in 6 of the last 7 contests. But the Steelers are better. Pittsburgh has lost 3 games, Indy, the Giants, and the Eagles – those are 3 teams with heavy passing attacks. I like Pittsburgh to pull this one out by the closest of margins.

Denver Broncos (+9) @ Carolina Panthers: Why Denver? Because they are supposed to lose I guess. There it is, you’ve got me. Mike “Splinter” Shannahan is the bane of my existence like Shredder is to his ninja turtles. I can’t quite figure him out. The Panthers are one of my favorite teams to bet on because I usually know when to and when not to bet on them (whoops last week against Tampa). Usually when they can run with ease they are a sure thing, but there’s no sure things against a heavy underdog Broncos team and while this win would assure Carolina an undefeated home regular season, I just have an eerie feeling that the Broncos will play it closer than 9. Carolina rushed for 300 yards last week, and Steve Smith was doing work, and they were still a 3rd and 4 stop from having the Bucs attempt a game tying touchdown drive with 2 minutes left. Now that’s a big if, but it’s something that sits in my mind. The Panthers are coming off quite the high, and that could get them down a bit in this one.

New England Patriots (-7) @ Oakland Raiders: The Patriots haven’t played well on the West Coast this season. Traveling across the prairies and mountains and Montana, they may be 2-1, but all three were pretty ugly. The game against the 49ers was ugly in Week 5, their game in San Diego in Week 6 was even worse, and they needed magic to oust the terribly powerful Seahawks last week in Seattle. Still, I hate betting on the Raiders so I won’t. That may be the “smart pick” but something in me sees Bill Belichick realizing how crappy his team has played on West Coast trips and somehow working that in to practice to motivate them. Did I mention I hate Oakland? Watch out, this may be a bit of a “with my heart” pick. Damn Raiders.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: I guess this is because I don’t think the Cowboys are all that great of a football team, and as much as I’d like to believe that the Giants aren’t either, I just can’t lie to myself like that. New York’s defensive front should give Tony and crew the same problems Pittsburgh did last week, and I seriously doubt that the Cowboys can hold the Giants under 20 points… In fact, I think this will be a relatively high scoring game, busting open that 45 point over. I like the Giants here.

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-14): Once again, I hate betting on the Eagles anytime, especially as a huge favorite – but, and there is a big but here, the Eagles have absolutely crushed bad teams this season. St. Louis? 38-3. San Francisco? 40-26. Seattle? 26-7. Sure, they tied the Bengals, and that’s partly why I wouldn’t risk much on this game, but I really see the Eagles defense and offense being able to run on all cylinders this week on Monday Night Football. Ken Dorsey? No thanks. Part of me thinks that the Eagles might let me down in the worst kind of way, because that’s what they do, but I look at the schedule and I see that they’ve only lost to solid teams – the Browns aren’t that.