After 9 wins in Week 9 and 10 in Week 10, I took a step back down the free pick staircase with an 8 win mark in Week 11 – still, 8 wins guarantees me at least a push, and that’s exactly what I got. I’m looking forward to not tying this week’s action – because as even Donovan McNabb knows, there’s no such thing as overtime in the gambling world, just a big fat sack of vig headed to the Casino. Ugh. On we go, Here’s Week 12!
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-10): The Bengals have played two pretty well played games in a row – that’s probably their limit. On the other hand, Pittsburgh only has 3 wins by 10 or more points. Washington, Cincinnati, and Houston in week 1. The Bengals have lost just 4 games by 10 or more points – not too shabby when you consider how bad their defense is supposed to be and how injuries have crushed their collective souls. This is a Thursday Night game, and as advertised, anything can happen on National TV. That being said, I think Pittsburgh is getting healthier by the week and the short preparation will probably help their cause. This could be a weird one, but I’m looking at the Steelers here.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5): I wonder when the TItans will start getting the respect they deserve. I know Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been great against the run lately, and New York’s run D has been stellar, but I have a hard time believing the Jets offense putting up enough points to beat the Titans. I think Tennessee by a touchdown is right on the money. I’ll take the Titans. The Titans are a team that capitalizes on mistakes and the Jets are a team that makes them. This pick makes too much sense so it should make dollars.
New England Patriots (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins: I don’t see the Dolphins sweeping the Patriots – call me crazy. After Miami did anything and everything they wanted to do against the Patriots back in Week 3 don’t you think Bill Belichick and his Pats will have a little more invested in this game? I know the Fins need wins too, but the Patriots are the better team – they should win this one in Miami.
Chicago Bears (-7.5) @ St. Louis Rams: The Rams tackle as bad as the Browns and are offensively more pathetic than the Raiders… Even when the Rams score, it’s because of a gross deep bomb to Donnie Avery. The Bears need this win – they are in a division where every W counts and every loss gets them closer to the Lions. I expect Chicago to put this game in Matt Forte’s hands. For a rookie, his hands are pretty safe.
Houston Texans (+3) @ Cleveland Browns: I have this eerie feeling that Sage Rosenfels throws for about 350 yards and the Texans destroy the Browns. I don’t know what drives me to that type of thinking, but it has something to do with watching the Browns suck on Monday Night and still get the win. They should have lost that game. What does that tell us? Well, I always bet against teams that played like losers and still won. It’s bound to catch up with them. The Texans can run and throw and they actually tackle people.
San Francisco 49ers (+12) @ Dallas Cowboys: Don’t look too far into it, but the 49ers have actually played some good teams tough over the last 6 weeks. You can tell me all about their game against Seattle, but remember, they still had more yards than the Hawks, and if it wasn’t for two fluke full back 50 yard touchdown catches, the game would have been a lot closer. The Niners lost to New England by 9, Philly by 14 (but the game was much tighter than that), the Giants by 12, the Cardinals by 5 two weeks ago (and it was two yards from a win), and they killed the terrible Rams last week. The Cowboys still haven’t proven to me that they have their lives together, and the underdog looks good here. I’ll take the Niners.
Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: I like the Bills to fight back in this one. They’ve really struggled, but they still should have won on Monday Night Football. Trent Edwards will get his life together this week and even if he doesn’t, I still like the Bills to run hard and often against the Chiefs defensive front. I like the tandem of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson – that duo should do just good enough to take down the Chiefs by a little more than a field goal. It should be a well fought game, but I like the Bills to end their recent woes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Detroit Lions: The Lions play brutal football at home, and they way they play defense seems like a perfect scheme against Daunte Culpepper. They just wait back for the offense to make a mistake. No big plays, no deep passes, just trouble for inaccurate quarterbacks that haven’t played football in a year. The Bucs don’t kill teams, but they do shut down mediocre running games and they are a team built on taking advantage of mistakes. I like the Bucs to win by a couple touchdowns in Detroit.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: There’s a lot about Baltimore I like here. Their toughness. The fact that they played their worst game of the year last week. Lots of things. But the Eagles play their best football against the best defenses. They did work on the Giants, beat the Steelers 15-6, and but up 37 on a Dallas team that was playing well early. I’ll take the Eagles to win this game outright.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: When teams force the Jaguars to throw, the Jaguars don’t win. Minnesota doesn’t have to do anything different than they do every week, and they’ll still force the Jags to throw. Adrian Peterson should have a humungous week against the Jaguars. That defensive front just isn’t confident enough to stop that young man. Look for Gus Frerotte to throw a limited but effective number of passes. I actually expect this game to be Minnesota’s biggest point differential victory of the season.
Carolina Panthers (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is the part of the year where young teams that have become great stories take a step backwards. I don’t know if that will be the case with the Falcons, but I do know what I think about the Panthers makes them the only play in Atlanta this week. I’ll say it again, if the Panthers can run the ball, they are one of the toughest outs in football. They can run against Atlanta, and their defense has enough playmakers to make like a little tougher on Mike Turner and Matt Ryan. A sweep of the Falcons will put Carolina in a great spot headed into the final 5 weeks.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-9): Everyone seems to beat up on the Raiders, but especially prolific passing teams. The Broncos iced the Raiders 41-14 to start the season off, and the Saints beat Oakland by 31 a few weeks later. The Raiders almost had Miami last week, but that seems like more Miami than Oakland. I don’t like taking the Broncos as a big favorite, because, well, they aren’t very good – but there are some key injuries that should really hurt the Raiders, and the Broncos are playing smarter of late. They’ll run on Oakland, and Jay should have wide open lanes through the air. 31-13 is my guess.
Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Washington definitely hasn’t played well of late, back to back losses to Pittsburgh and then Dallas, and before that it was a loss to St. Louis and two very close games against the Browns (won by 3) and Lions (won by 8). That being said, it’s not like the Seahawks have been the team to beat out west. Going from Washington DC to Washington for a late game isn’t nearly as tough as Seattle to DC for an early game, so that trip doesn’t bother me too much here. I think Jim Zorn has something to prove heading into Seattle, and he had to learn a lot from “playing not to lose” last week against the Cowboys. I like Clinton Portis to have a nice game, but even more, I expect Jason Campbell to go back to his mistake free football as the Seahawks lose another.
New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: I love the Cardinals, and I think their passing game will give the Giants enough trouble to keep this game close, but I have to bet on the Giants. They’ve beaten me enough, and proven to me to be one of the elite teams in the NFL. I know the Cardinals are undefeated at home, but they are coming off of two very mediocre weeks where they’ve gotten in the habit of not capitalizing on their opportunities. That won’t fly against the Giants, even in Arizona. The Cardinals are 7-3, but they really haven’t beaten one of the NFL’s best teams. I’d say Carolina, the Jets, and Redskins are the three best teams Arizona has faced; and they’ve lost all three. Arizona will put up a fight, and you can bet on Kurt wanting to prove to the Giants that he can indeed play, and he’s one of the best QBs in the league. He will, but that won’t keep Eli and the Giants out of the win column.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5): 6-4 vs. 4-6 and I could swear that San Diego is the better team. Crazy. Indy still isn’t impressing me, and until I get a sure thing that Bob Sanders is coming back and in full health, I’m not taking them on the road at San Diego. The Chargers played a pretty good defensive game against the Steelers, and they have always had luck against Peyton Manning. The Chargers play their best against opponents that test them, and you know they’ll be ready for a bout with the Colts, especially sitting two games back of the Broncos and a loss away from basically being out of the playoffs. 72% of the public is wrong about this game – the Chargers are the only play worth making.
Green Bay Packers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: The Packers play well against teams that rely heavily on the pass, and that’s probably because their run defense isn’t that good. Aaron Rodgers played terribly the last time Green Bay went into the dome, but he’s a very good quarterback and will get more and more used to games indoors. The Saints haven’t really played good football since their 34-3 win over the Raiders. They have a couple wins, but none of them have impressed me. I think the Packers are far and away the better team and that’s enough for me to make a small play on Green Bay.