Home Alone!Is it possible that the away teams will win 12 of 14 games this week? I sure hope so. I’ve taken the underdog in eight games and the away team in twelve. These are both season highs for me, so get ready for a season high in the win column. After another week of mediocrity (7-7) I’m primed for a big breakout performance that will bring me up and over the .500 plateau. An epic home team disaster is on the way. Don’t drink and drive!
Chicago @ Cleveland (-3) – The Bears and Browns were both off in Week 4. Many are saying the bye week will help Kyle Orton get used to the NFL, but I’m here to say that won’t happen. All a bye week does for a rookie is allow him to think more about his mistakes. Kyle will do much better when he gets into the swing of things and doesn’t have enough time to think about anything, just play football. Trent Dilfer has been very accurate for the Browns, and he’ll need to continue that if he wants to win his first home game in a Browns uniform. The Browns will find it tough to dent the Bears powerful defensive unit, but big mistakes by the Bears will allow Cleveland to pull it off late. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
New Orleans (+3) @ Green Bay – The Packers shouldn’t be favored against anybody. The Packers can’t do just enough to beat me this week, as they can’t make me lose without winning the game. God knows they’re not prepared to do that. My good friend lives in Green Bay, and he told me “I’ve never see more grown men cry than when the Packers got beat by the Browns in Lambeau.” Tears should continue to poor like the Fox River as Joe Horn will come back from injury and terrorize Al Harris and the Packer secondary. Look for Aaron Brooks to have his biggest statistical game of the year as the Saints upset the Pack. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
Tampa Bay (-3) @ New York Jets – The Buccaneers got lucky against Detroit last week. Marcus Pollard’s knee supposedly went out of bounds before he controlled the ball and Mike Williams’ right pinky toe nicked the left sideline in the end zone as the Buc’s literally won by an inch. But you take them when you can get them, and everyone and their mother knows, this is the time to take them from the Jets. Cadillac Williams is bruised and possibly out for this game, but back up runner Michael Pittman is no slouch. The Jets will have their hands full, with or without Carnell in the lineup. Look for Joey Galloway to make more big-plays as Tampa Bay takes out the Jets in New York.
Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
Seattle (+3) @ St. Louis – The Seahawks never win in St. Louis. Hell, the Hawks never beat the Rams no matter where the game is played. Little known fact, the Rams are always out to surprise their viewers. Last week they got destroyed by the New York Giants, but the Rams always play well at home. Ha! That’s what they want you to think. Don’t let them fool you. They will lose to Seattle this week. There’s no question in my mind. Shaun Alexander will rush for over 100 yards without much of a defense to get in his way. When Shaun does that, the Seahawks win big. Take the Hawks to win their first game against the Rams in over a year. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
New England @ Atlanta (-3) – Wait until right before kickoff to take this bet. If Mike Vick isn’t suiting up for the Falcons, the Patriots at +3 is a pretty damn good bet. If Vick is starting, take the Falcons in a landslide. The Falcons defense has really stepped it up, and the Patriots aren’t as sharp as they once were. But that’s not where this game is going to be won and lost. The Falcons possess the leagues best rushing attack by far. Even without Vick, the Falcons have a shot because the Patriots haven’t been able to stop the run all year. They won’t be able to hold the three headed monster in Atlanta (Vick, Dunn, and Duckett) When the Patriots lose this game, they will be 2-3. I won’t say I told you so! Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
Miami (+3) @ Buffalo – The Dolphins are a better football team than I expected. On the eve before the return of Ricky Williams, the Dolphins will go into Buffalo and beat a wounded Bills squad. Wounded by the loss of Takeo Spikes, and wounded like the Ducks that JP Losman throws every other play. Nick Saban has done wonders for this Dolphin team, and he’ll continue to wow us as he takes the Dolphins to 3-1. Right now the Dolphins are leading the AFC. Can they keep it up? They can in Week 5! Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
Baltimore (+1.5) @ Detroit – The Lions played well enough to win last week against the undefeated Buccaneers, but luck wasn’t on their side as they fell inches short of victory, not once but twice. Joey Harrington played well against a very good Tampa Bay defense. Can he replicate or one up his performance in week 5? I’m guessing NO. The Ravens defense finally showed up to play as they limited the Jets to three whole points. Baltimore’s offense isn’t worthy of much more than a victory in Detroit, but that’s exactly where they play this week. Take the Ravens to outlast the Lions for their second win in a row. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
Tennessee (+3) @ Houston – The Titans were humiliated by the Colts. They’ll get used to that sooner than later. Lucky for them they play the winless Houston Texans in Week 5. Look for Steve McNair to get some time to throw, feeding the ball to Drew Bennett for Drew’s first 100 yard game of the year. Chris Brown will also get a chance to shine against an average Texan defense. This will be a tight game, as the Texans proved last week that they aren’t a complete waste of an NFL Franchise. The Titan defense will force David Carr in to his customary mistakes, leaving room for McNair to put early points on the board. Take the Titans by a couple in this minor upset.
Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET
Indianapolis (-14.5) @ San Francisco – The Colts weren’t bashful when showing the Titans that their offense is still quite powerful. Don’t expect them to take it easy on the banged up 49er defense that gave up nearly 400 yards to Joshy Woshy McCowen in Mexico on Sunday Night. Petyon Manning… Josh McCowen… Hmmmm… I’m sure the 49ers are excited to throw their crazy blitz packages at Peyton. The Colts might take the over by themselves. I wonder if the Niners will wait until next year to let Alex Smith meat Dwight Freeney? The Colts might very well match the Falcons nine sacks against Minnesota. Either way, there will be plenty of room for both Peyton’s offense and Dwight Freeney’s defense to showcase their talents as the Colts will upend the Niners in epic proportions.
Game Date: 10/09/05 16:05 ET
Carolina (-2.5) @ Arizona – The Panther’s almost let a very important victory slip away to the Second-Half-Packers on Monday night. Luckily for them they pulled it out by the gray hairs on Brett’s chinny, chin, chin. That should have been a wake up call to John Fox and his club. Whether the Panthers like it or not, they need to get the ball to Deshaun Foster more. Steven Davis gets tough yards, but there were too many instances when Davis was just a touch to slow to get the big gain. Look for Jake Delhomme to do what the Niners couldn’t and exploit Arizona’s young secondary.
Game Date: 10/09/05 16:15 ET
Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas – The Eagles are much better than the tumbling Cowboys. Dallas hasn’t done jack after beating the Chargers in week 2. That’s right, I barely count that win over the 49ers. This week Terrell Owens will make the Dallas Cowboy secondary look like a flock of JP Losman’s wounded ducks. Donovan McNabb should have another huge night against a Dallas defense that has a hard time stopping their scout team. Brian Westbrook will find room to run when the Cowboys drop their linebackers to defend McNabb. Julius Jones might have himself a good first half, but being down by two touchdowns at half never helps a running back’s numbers. This game won’t be close. Take the Eagles in an easy one.
Game Date: 10/09/05 16:15 ET
Washington (+7.5) @ Denver – The Redskins played well at home against the Hawks last week. This week they go into Denver to play the Lucky-screwing Broncos. I have to be honest, Denver is overachieving. Mark Brunell was efficient last week against Seattle. He’ll continue in Denver. This week the Redskins will make Jake Plummer beat them, and that won’t happen. Shawn Springs and the Redskin rookie, Rogers, are both solid on the corner. With old-man Rod Smith and drop-it-often Ashley Lelie at wide receiver, the Broncos will be sledding uphill in Mile High. Take the Redskins and all those points in Denver. Game Date: 10/09/05 16:15 ET
Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Jacksonville – The Bengals are a good team that is riding the wave of confidence coming out of Cincinnati. The Jaguars were humiliated by the Broncos in Jacksonville last week. This is a hard one for me, because I love what Byron Leftwich brings to the quarterback position. But his team’s inability to run the ball will catch up to them again when the tough Bengal defense comes to Jacksonville. Look for Carson Palmer to have a big day through the air with Donovan Darius out of the Jaguar lineup. This will be a tight one, but the Bengals will pull out a minor upset in Jacksonville.
Game Date: 10/09/05 20:35 ET
Pittsburgh (+3) @ San Diego – I’m taking the away team in this Monday Night Showdown. The Steelers had two weeks to prepare for the best running back the NFL has to offer. They won’t shut Ladainian Tomlinson down, but they’ll make him work harder than the Patriots did a week ago. Don’t be surprised if LT goes Week 5 without a touchdown. The Steelers are very tough on Defense, and they’ll be out to prove something after a big loss at home to New England in Week 3. Big Ben Roethlisberger will have a better day in San Diego, tossing touchdowns to Hines Ward while pulling off a minor upset against the streaking Chargers. Game Date: 10/10/05 21:05 ET
A NUMBERS BET
Seattle (+3) @ St. Louis – The Rams have lost to the spread in 8 of the last 11 games they’ve been favored. Seattle has lost their last three games against the Rams. Who will win out? Take the Hawks. They’ve proved to be a more balanced team this year, and they’ll out-dual the Rams in St. Louis.
Big Bet of the Week
Washington (To Win) (+280) @ Denver – The Broncos are overachieving as are the Redskins. The Redskins have a decent rushing attack and a decent passing attack. The Broncos have a decent rushing attack and Jake Plummer at quarterback. That’s the difference. The Broncos won’t be able to throw all their marbles into stopping the run like the Redskins will. Denver will fall from their 3-1 pedestal. Take the big money!
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