Atlanta @ Buffalo (-3) – The Falcons might have to play against the feared Buffalo Bill defense without Mike Vick. If that becomes true, take this bet in a hurry. The Bills make veteran quarterbacks look like rookies, Matt Schaub will have one hell of a time if he starts. The Bills are coming off a big loss to a tough Buccaneer squad, where JP Losman looked like the first year starting quarterback that he is. You can bet the Falcons and Patrick Kerney will be hot on his trail this Sunday. The Falcons gave up 144 yards to Shaun Alexander last week. Willis McGahee will get enough carries to match Shaun’s big numbers. Even if Vick plays, I’m taking the Bills to push Atlanta to 1-2. McGahee is too good to keep under 100 yards, and the Takeo Spikes and his band of outlaws will shut down the Falcon rushing attack. Look for Losman to be limited under 20 pass attempts. If the Bills can do that, they win hands down!
Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ETJacksonville (+2.5) @ New York Jets – The Jets got a much needed win against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday. Chad Pennington completed 19-30, and the Jets defense played strong, limiting the Dolphins to one late score. Jacksonville lost a hard fought battle to the Colts, but played well enough to make me a believer. (I promptly went and dropped some cash on a futures Super Bowl bet) Byron Leftwich is a winner, and he’ll play with a sprained knee this Sunday. Look for Fred Taylor and the Jacksonville offensive line to pull a Chief-one on the Jet defense, rushing for big yards and a couple touchdowns. Leftwich will have decent numbers, but he won’t need to have a big day to win. The Jaguar defense is one of the most underrated units in the league, but that only makes them better. If Curtis Martin doesn’t start (he’s questionable) the Jaguars will have an easy time halting Pennington and the Jets. Take the Jaguars to upset on the road. Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Tennessee (+6.5) @ St. Louis – The Rams lost to the 49ers in week one and beat the Arizona Cardinals in week 2. I lost both of those games. With the Titans coming to town, I have to bet against those pesky Rams. Since last season the Rams are 3-7 against the spread when favored. Can you say 3-8? Steve McNair won’t have much resistance when he drops back to pass. If Tim Rattay can do it, so can Steve! Chris Brown and Travis Henry will continue to control the clock for the Titans, who have played smart football in both games this early season. Steve Fisher knows how to coach, which gives the Titans a 1-0 lead before the game even starts. If Martz bites his own stupid play calling mic and gives the ball to Steven Jackson 25 times, the Rams have a chance, but don’t be surprised if Martz decides deep bombs are better than a sure 5 yards per carry. In fact, bet on it. I am. The Rams will struggle early and often, make big mistakes, and do their best to lose at home to a “rebuilding” team. The Titans will play smart and capitalize on the Rams ineptitude’s. Look for a big upset in St. Louis. Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Oakland @ Philadelphia (-7.5) – The Raiders have played well for a team without a win. Their defense played tough against the Patriots in week one, but couldn’t stop Brady because the Raider offense didn’t help at all. They played tough against Kansas City, holding the Chief offense well under their rushing average, and Kerry Collins even looked all right against the revamped Chief D, but they couldn’t take the Chiefs in Oakland. Randy Moss and TO make this the best wide receiver match-up in football, and both will make their mark on this game. The Eagles are always very tough at home, and you can bet they’ll want to build on what they did last week against San Francisco. Donovan McNabb will have another big game, and TO will out perform Randy Moss in a high scoring affair. Look for Greg Lewis and LJ Smith to get a touchdown a piece with TO taking most of the Raider attention. Brian Westbrook might not get big rushing totals, but he’ll be a force receiving with the Raiders’ average linebacking corps in coverage. Kerry Collins has yet to throw an interception, which is a miracle if you’ve seen any of his games. He won’t be able to loft it up in Philly as Lito Sheppard, Brian Dawkins, Michael Lewis, and Sheldon Brown are ball hawks. Week 3 should get Collins back on his one interception for every touchdown pace.
Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Cincinnati (-3) @ Chicago – Chicago has played very well this year. The Bear defense has been as good as any, holding the Redskins without a touchdown in week 1, and the Lions to 6 points in week 2. Kyle Orton looks like a future star in this game, with the future coming soon. Unfortunately for the Bears, Carson Palmer’s red hot arm, and his beastly Bengals come to town as hot as any team in the league. Two wins and over 600 yards for Palmer after two games, has the sports world praising his name. Not bad for a third year quarterback. Chad Johnson is truly special, as loud and obnoxious as his mouth may be. Rudi Johnson will find little room to run in Chicago, but he’ll be pounding between them tackles. The Bears can’t focus on one thing like they did against the Redskins and the Lions. If they set out to stop the run, bringing safeties up in support, Carson Palmer will lace into their secondary. If they drop back in coverage too often, Rudi Johnson will bulldoze through the line of scrimmage to victory. The Bears are better than many thought, and that includes me, but they aren’t as good as the Bengals, a team that looks like a surefire playoff squad. Look for a defensive struggle early, with Palmer finding Johnson for a couple big plays that bury the Bears.
Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
New Orleans (+4) @ Minnesota – The Saints always play well when they’re underdogs. Last week, they were put in a tough place, traveling to the Giants home field for a home game. They played much better than the 17 point margin, but couldn’t get past their numerous penalties and freak turnovers. In their last 10 games, they are 6-4 against the spread when favored. Team that fact with the way the Minnesota Vikings have played their first two games, and the Saints look like a pretty good bet to go into Minnesota and upset the Vikings. Daunte Culpepper will have a break out game, but the Minnesota defense will continue to play poorly. Luckily for the Vikings they are in the division with the Bears, Packers, and Lions. They can start off poorly and still win the division. Look for a shootout in this one, with Aaron Brooks and Daunte Culpepper tossing touchdowns left and right. I think more than 60 points will be scored with the Saints on top after 4. Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Carolina (-3) @ Miami – The Panthers by 3? C’mon, that’s the best the oddsmakers could do! Take the Carolina Panthers in a laugher. The Dolphins aren’t good enough to play with good teams, and Carolina is one of the best this league has to offer. Steven Davis will find the end zone once or twice against the 3-4 scheme in Miami, and Jake Delhomme will find Steve Smith enough to take the Dolphins by a couple touchdowns. Don’t get me wrong, the Fins have played better than I expected, but they aren’t on the same level as Carolina.
Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Cleveland (+14) @ Indianapolis – The Browns played very well against the Packers last week, and the score was much closer than the game was. The Colts were in a war at home against Jacksonville, but came out on top. I usually take the team I think will win, but this week I have to take Cleveland because of that huge two touchdown spread. The Browns played well against a very good team in Cincinnati, and beat the Packers at home, though that’s not as rare is it once was. Either way, the Browns have the coaching and talent to play close to good teams, closer than 14. Manning should have his best day, but the defense in Indy will be tested by the Browns, who aren’t afraid to take a couple chances. Look for the Indianapolis Colts to end the game on top, but not without a bulldog fight from the new and improved Brownies. Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ Green Bay – The Packers might set a record for the amount of games they’re going to be underdogs in Lambeau. In turn, I might set a record for games I pick against the Packers when they’re underdogs at home. This should be a fun year! The Packers haven’t shown that they can play with anyone in the NFL. They got kicked around by the Lions, who went into Chicago and got obliterated. Then they lost to the Browns. Trent Dilfer threw for over 300 yards in that game. Not to knock Trent, but he’s not your regular Peyton Manning. This week the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to town, and the outcome isn’t very promising for Brett and his wilting pack of players. Cadillac Williams is leading the league in rushing after two games, and Chucky Gruden seems to have his team glowing with confidence and know-how. Brian Griese should have his best week passing, and the perennial stout defense in Tampa will have its way with the old Brett Favre and the sieved that claims to be his offensive line. Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
Arizona @ Seattle (-6) – It’s tough to take the Hawks with a 6 point spread. One reason is, the Cardinals have the talent and fire power to light it up any time now. The other reason is, the Seahawks were 2-8 against the spread when favored in 2004. But those are old numbers, and the talent that roams on the Arizona roster hasn’t transferred its way onto the field of play. The Hawks look like a good team, at least in the first half, where the Cardinals have struggled both early games of the season. Matt Hasselbeck has looked as accurate as ever, and the Hawk receivers have at least toned down their dropped passes. Shaun Alexander broke out of his baby booties last week and trucked an Atlanta defender on 3rd and 1. For running like tenderfoot for most of his career, the run was most impressive. Look for the Seahawks to take advantage of Kurt Warner miscues, his fluttering passes, and lack of mobility. With no rushing attack to press the Hawks, the Cardinals talented receiving corps will struggle to find room against the corner trio of Marcus Trufant, Kelly Herndon, and Andre Dyson.
Game Date: 09/25/05 16:05 ET
New England @ Pittsburgh (-3) – The Patriots finally made my prediction come true last week, losing to the Panthers by 10 in Carolina. Tom Brady looked frustrated for most of the game, a distant cry from his cool and calm assassination of the Raider secondary in week 1. Corey Dillon has yet to rush for decent yardage, and the Patriot defense obviously misses their old linebackers. Could it be that Bill Belichick has to much to do with three of his former coaching staff scattered around the football world? I think so. Belichick’s entire team looked confused in Carolina. The Pittsburgh Steelers should provide much of the same. Remember, it was last year when the Steel Show ended the Patriots famed winning streak. This year the Steelers should torment Tom Brady and shut down Corey Dillon. The powerful rushing attack in Steeler country will have its way with a punchless Patriot unit, and continue to make Willie Parker a made man. The Steeler defense hasn’t played against the best of opponents, but they’re ready to bring ruckus at Tom. Big plays won’t be scarce, as this game promises to be a great one.
Game Date: 09/25/05 16:15 ET
Dallas (-6.5) @ San Francisco – The Cowboys lost a heart breaker on Monday night. That’s really a shame. It broke my heart too. When Santana Moss sprinted right past the Cowboys’ best defensive player Roy Williams, I felt a single tear roll down my cheek. This week the Cowboys are bound to kick the San Francisco 49ers all over the field. Unfortunately the Cowboy offensive line is good. They give the upside down turtle ample opportunity to throw the ball accurately down field. The 49ers sputtering offensive unit will struggle to score even one touchdown against a defense that will be out to prove themselves after a 4th quarter debacle at home. Jerry Jones will be able to leave at half time to go sit in his 12 person jacuzzi. I hear he wets his bed 3-4 times per week. Can anyone back that up? Julius Jones will be the big story in California, rushing for over 150 yards and a couple scores. Take the ‘Boys in an old fashion beat down.
Game Date: 09/25/05 16:05 ET
New York Giants @ San Diego (-5.5) – The Giants pulled a quick one on the rest of the league when they got the Saints to come to New York for a home game. Nice. This week, the Chargers, who just happen to be 0-2, have to come out and win. If they don’t, they’re 0-3, and in the AFC that means no playoffs. After one of the best years for the Chargers in a long time, San Diego isn’t ready to give up this early. The Chargers will come out on a mission. Eli Manning will be frustrated by a hyped up Charger defense. We must remember, this is only Eli’s second year. Drew Brees will have a nice game, and Ladainian Tomlinson will eclipse the 100 yard mark for the first time this year. Antonio Gates is good for a touchdown, and everyone knows LT is taking one in. The Giants will fold early and the San Diego Chargers will get their first win of the year.
Game Date: 09/25/05 20:30 ET
Kansas City (+3) @ Denver – The Denver Broncos tried as hard as they could to lose last week against the Chargers. Unfortunately for my dollar, they failed, and came out on top. Not this week Mike Shanahan. The Chiefs are the real deal, one of the best teams the NFL has to offer. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson look to eclipse the 200 yard mark in Denver. Trent Green will throw his first touchdown of the year to Tony Gonzalez, and Dante Hall will find himself on Sports Center by the end of the day. Kansas City’s defense is going to take advantage of Jake Plummer’s inability to throw the ball to anyone on his own team. Plummer broke all John Elway’s records last year and seems happy with that, because he’s not building on his high-scoring year. The Chiefs defense is no longer a handicap, but a stout group that makes big plays. Kansas City will go to 3-0 in Denver, as the Broncos tumble to 1-2. Game Date: 09/26/05 21:00 ET
BIG MONEY BET OF THE WEEK: Titans +240 @ Rams
If you want to take a shot on a big underdog this weekend, go with the Titans in St. Louis. The Rams are more Jeckyl and Hyde than any team in the league, and the Titans are just coming off a big win against the Ravens. The Rams can lose to any team any day, as they proved with their week one loss to the Niners. Steve McNair should have his best game of the young year, and the tandem of Chris Brown and Travis Henry might pack enough punch to level the Rams. Also, since last year, in the Rams have been favored in 10 games. They’ve lost 5. At +240, my 50$ bet will pay out 120$. I like those odds!
Game Date: 09/25/05 13:00 ET
WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks