It’s a good thing I got out all of those early-season free football picks butterflies in week one, because I can’t have another week like that. When I say can’t, I mean if I lose the type of cash I lost last Sunday, my wife says she’ll sell my TV to her “friend” that lives on the first floor. God knows I don’t want Guilermo watching soccer on my TV while he’s “teaching my wife how to cook”. I need a win like Guilermo needs to get his ass kicked. Anyway, that’s another article. What I need to do is switch the script on opening weekend and finish closer to 12 wins than 6… though both would be an upgrade. A little pathetic, I know. Luckily for good old Lucky, the odds makers have given me another chance to make good on my picks. No more Culpepper-like weeks for Lucky Lester… Bring on the victories Guilermo!!!
Baltimore (-4) @ Tennessee – The Ravens have lost their starting quarterback, Kyle Boller, to a knee injury. That’s the only reason I’m taking the Ravens. Boller wasn’t going to get the job done. With Kyle and his shot-put throwing style on the sidelines, the Ravens will light it up against a Tennessee defense that looked more like a J.V. team last week against the Steel show. This game should be a blow out. Jamal Lewis should get his season on track after a dismal start against the Colts. Baltimore will not go 0-2 to start the season, I guarantee that. The Steelers took care of their business in week one against the Tennessee Titans, and the Baltimore Ravens will do the same in week 2. Steve McNair and his makeshift offense won’t be able to produce against another tough defense. Anthony Wright knows how to get his receiving weapons, (Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, and Mark Clayton) the ball. If Wright plays well, and gives the Ravens a chance at the playoffs, don’t be surprised if Boller doesn’t see the starting lineup when he comes back. The Ravens need to win. They expect to win. If they don’t win, only God knows how Ray Lewis will react. Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
Buffalo (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay – Last week the Buffalo Bills defense obliterated the Houston Texan offense. The Bills gave up 70 passing yards to David Carr while intercepting three of his passes. All preseason opposing players, like Brett Favre, praised the Buffalo defense, and for good reason. The Bills defense is as good as it gets. This week the Bills go up against the Buccaneers and rookie sensation Carnell Williams, who rushed for 148 yards last week against the “revamped” Viking defense. If you expect Williams to have a repeat performance, don’t hold your breath. This won’t be the same walk in the park for the Rookie. The Bills will hold Williams’ rushing total to under half his output from a week ago. This game might be the biggest defensive struggle so far this year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are always good on defense, and they held MVP candidate Daunte Culpepper well below his season averages in almost every statistical category. Except for fumbles of course. Pep far exceeded those expectations with 5. He’s on pace to have one billion. Tampa Bay should fair better than the Vikings. They actually have a rushing attack. Brian Griese found his receivers last week against the Vikes, but they won’t be wide open this week. Griese will have a couple turnovers and the Bills will capitalize. Willis McGahee will eclipse 100 yards on the ground, even against a tough “stuff’em” defense in Tampa. This game will be an old fashion smash them in the mouth contest. Take the Bills, as they’re made for this type of game.
Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
Detroit (-1.5) @ Chicago – Last week I claimed the Bears would take part in the most boring game of the week. Final score, Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Redskins 9. Last time the Cubs and the Nationals played there were more runs scored for God’s sake. This week the “exciting” Lions come to Chicago to do their best to brighten things up. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Lions will do exactly that. The Bears don’t have the firepower to play with any high-powered teams, so their only hope is to limit the Lions to fewer than two touchdowns. Good luck. Last week Kevin Jones didn’t find the end zone. This week will almost certainly be different. The Bears defense is tough, but their offense is so stagnant, and the Lions defense is much improved. What does that mean? Kyle Orton is a rookie. A good rookie, yes, but a rookie nonetheless. He’ll make his mistakes, giving the Lions good field position, and a chance to blow the game wide open. Roy Williams was held in check last week against a pathetic Packer defense. This week the average fan would think a much better Bear defense would have their way with Roy. Don’t expect that to happen. Roy will come to play this week. And if the Lions want to win, they’ll have to get their game-breaking receiver the ball. Look for this game to stay tight early, but watch the Lions break away as the Chicago Bear defense gets tired, ala the Colts against Baltimore last Sunday night.
Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
Jacksonville (+9) @ Indianapolis – Speaking of those Indianapolis Colts, they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 2. The Jaguars’ defense won’t have the same effect they had on the Seattle Seahawks last week, limiting Shawn Alexander to 74 yards and intercepting Matt Hasselbeck twice. But they will play a big roll in Sunday’s tangle with the Colts. The Jacksonville Jaguars always play close, and they’re much improved from a year ago. Fred Taylor should play better in his second full game back from knee surgery, and Byron Leftwich will only get more and more comfortable as the season progresses. Don’t expect the Colts defense to play as well as they did last week against Baltimore. Because they were playing against Baltimore. They won’t get away with stacking the line of scrimmage against the run; Leftwich will pick them apart if they try that. Both secondarys will be tested this week. This will be a close game, early and late. The nine points given by the Colts is too much for my taste, so I’ll take the underdogs to play with in 9 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jags come out and put a wallop on the overconfident Colts. With Reggie Williams, Jimmy Smith, Fred Taylor, and Matt Jones on the field together, the Colts will have to make a decision. Will they blitz Byron and allow one of those aforementioned Jaguars to burn you? Or will you sit back and see if Byron will make mistakes? Don’t count the Jaguars out of this match-up.
Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
Minnesota @ Cincinnati (-3) – The Vikings started the year just about as poorly as they possibly could. Well, I guess they could have lost to the Miami Dolphins or the San Francisco 49ers… Nice work Rams and Broncos! Either way, 5 turnovers and a huge loss to the Buccaneers at home couldn’t be what the Vikings were expecting after a good preseason. Daunte didn’t seem to gel with a wide receiving corps without Randy. Unfortunately for “Baby Hands” Culpepper, he’s going to have to learn to succeed without Mr. Moss. I imagine he’ll do much better this week against the Bengals. I don’t think he’ll win, but how could he possibly do worse than no touchdowns, three interceptions, and two fumbles? The Bengals didn’t destroy the Browns as I would have expected, but they won. Rudi Johnson rammed his way past the century mark, and Carson Palmer had his first big day, throwing for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. There’s more to come from him. I think the Bengals are a better team than the Buc’s but the game will still be close throughout. Look for Rudi Johnson to follow Cadillac Williams’ lead and run all over the Minnesota Vikings on way to victory. Minnesota will play better this week, but still lose by a touchdown against a good Bengal team. Minnesota at 0-2… I have to say, I wouldn’t have expected that from the Vikings. Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
New England @ Carolina (+3) – The Patriots didn’t play all that well against the Raiders, but they still made their victory look easy. Tom Brady was in fine form, tossing rockets to open receivers all over the field. Corey Dillon started off slow, but finished with 2 touchdowns after a better second half. The Patriot defense baffled Kerry Collins, who seemed to throw the ball up for grabs every single time his number was called. The Panthers have a top tier rushing attack with two big tough backs, Steven Davis and Deshaun Foster. Last week against the Raiders the Patriots defense didn’t show me they could consistently stop the rush. The Panthers will take advantage of that this weekend, feeding the ball to Foster and Davis many a time. This is where the Patriots will finally make my predictions come true as they begin to play like an average team. Carolina is a much better team than they showed against the Saints last week. With Kris Jenkins out for the year, they’ll really have to step up to beat the Patriots. This game will be close, as the spread insists, but at the end of the game it will be the Patriots who should’ve gotten the points. The Panthers fell victim to the emotional outburst from the Saints, but they have the confidence to compete with the defending world champs, and that’s just what they’ll do.
Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
Pittsburgh (-6) @ Houston – The Steelers played a poor defense last week and destroyed them. This week the Steelers play a below average defense that hasn’t learned to mesh quite yet. The veteran leadership in the Texan secondary is gone, and all though they are athletic, they are young and still have a lot to learn. And they’ll be taking notes this weekend. Because the Steelers know how to do it all. Willie Parker should follow up his starting debut with another big performance in Houston. Hines Ward will get more involved in the action this week. The Steeler defense looked pretty good against Tennessee, but who knows what that means? We could say that Pittsburgh is as good as they were last year, or we could say the Titans are as bad as they’ve been in quite some time. Either way the Steelers found a way to win big, and they’ll do it against the punch-less Texans. David Carr had his worst game as a professional, and if he wants to continue to start for his team, he’ll have to perform at a higher level. It doesn’t look like his competition is getting any easier, so he’ll have to step up big or sit down fast. The Steelers win big on the road. Roethlisberger continues to thrive.
Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-13) The Eagles are big favorites even after their stubby performance in Atlanta on Monday night. Donovan McNabb looked like a spaz and TO dropped more passes than he did all last year. Brian Westbrook didn’t rush the ball worth a sheep’s ass, and Mike Vick seemed like he could just break out in a trot and gain 20 yards any time he wanted against the feared Philly D. Maybe Trotter is that important. Kudos to Kevin Mathis by the way. That was a good trade bub. (Sorry to hear he’s out for the year, hopefully he recovers fast, seriously) As for the 49ers, they already have more wins than I thought they’d have all year. Funny, the St. Louis Rams screwed me again. Well hopefully the Rams are just that pathetic, and the 49ers really are as bad as I had imagined. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Niners fail to score an offensive touchdown against the Eagles. Philly should get back on track against the, 1-15-to be, San Francisco 49ers. McNabb will play through the sore chest he got from sitting in the pocket and holding on to the ball like Warren. Think, about it. What happened to the mobile Donovan McNabb? He’ll be back in full form against an attacking Niner defense. Look for McNabb to have huge numbers throwing touchdowns to Owens, LJ Smith, and Brian Westbrook. They’ll show us why they’re picked to make a Super Bowl return. Game Date: 09/18/05 13:00 ET
Atlanta (+1) @ Seattle – The Atlanta Falcons looked like a pretty good football team last week against the “defending NFC Champion” Philadelphia Eagles. This week they play the “I can’t believe we got into the playoffs with nine wins last year” Seattle Seahawks who got destroyed in the second half at Jacksonville last week. Based on that, this should be one hell of a game! In week 1 Seattle played well in the first half, and it should be easier for Shawn Alexander to get good yards against a team that doesn’t have Marcus Stroud and John Henderson stuffing holes up front. Either way, why the Seahawks are favored in this one is beyond me. They definitely didn’t prove that their defense has improved, and their offense doesn’t look any better than the inconsistent attack they tried last year. That being said, the Falcons still have a little fast superstar I like to call Mike Vick. He’ll have a field day with a defense that should be very worried about Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett. The Hawks are young on defense, and they should be in for a nice little lesson in rushing from the Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons haven’t beat the Seahawks in the last three seasons, but things will change this Sunday in Seattle, as Vick and his pack of pesky players take it to the Hawks.
Game Date: 09/18/05 16:05 ET
St. Louis @ Arizona (-1) – Arizona got beat by the Giants last week, and it was no close game. The Giants special teams outscored the entire Cardinal unit, and the Arizona rookies didn’t look as good as everyone thought they’d be. That being said, it was only week one, and nobody recovers from a debacle better than coach Dennis Green. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they play the worst team in football this week. Yes, the St. Louis Rams. Why are they the worst? They lost to the Niners last week. Must I say more? Okay, I will. Not only did they lose to the Niners, but they got whooped by the Niners. They only lost by three, but if it weren’t for the terrible Niners trying as hard as they could to lose, the Rams wouldn’t have been close. Mike Martz started off rushing Steven Jackson, but gave up on that much too early. I’ll never understand this Joker. Marc Bulger had pretty good numbers for a guy who got beat by San Francisco, but he won’t have another good day against Arizona. Dennis Green will have his boys ready to go after getting embarrassed to start the year. Kurt Warner might never find the touch that made him MVP while leading the Rams, but he can be as good as Tim Rattay. Apparently, that’s good enough to beat the Rams. Game Date: 09/18/05 16:05 ET
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Green Bay – After the way the Green Bay Packers played against the Detroit Lions last week, I can’t believe their favored by 6.5. And for most of the game last week the Packers had Javon Walker. He was the best option the Packers had, and yes, that includes Ahman Green and Brett Favre. This could be an odd year for the Packers who appear to be on a greasy slip ‘n’ slide headed off a cliff. On the bright side their defense played fairly well on opening day. But that can’t be expected on a weekly basis out of this club. Romeo Crenel’s team played pretty well against a good Bengal team, but Carson Palmer lit their secondary up for 280 yards. So they’re vulnerable. Is Brett still good enough to take advantage of the Browns? Maybe, but can he take advantage while he’s getting hit every down because his offensive line couldn’t stop the Little Giants? Probably not. Either way, it’s not right for the Packers to be favored by more than a couple even if they’re playing at Lambeau. Hell, until they prove otherwise, they should never be favored. Look for the Browns to play tit for tat with the Packers eventually upsetting Green Bay at home. My Uncle John isn’t going to like this one.
Game Date: 09/18/05 16:15 ET
Miami @ N.Y. Jets (-6) – The New York Jets really disappointed me last week, even though I think the Chiefs are one of the league’s best teams. Obviously I wasn’t the only one disappointed with the Jets. Head coach Herman Edwards went off on his team in practice, printing out a paper with size 22 font listing things like, don’t fumble, as something they need to do to win. Hopefully, for the Jets, that “back to basics” business works against the hapless Miami Dolphins. Well, I guess the Dolphins have a little hap. They took it to a Bronco team that looked as bad as I’ve ever seen. Gus Ferrote, of all people, was throwing the ball around their defense as if he was playing catch in his backyard. But I’ll talk about Denver later. I can’t imagine the Jets will ever play as bad as they did in Kansas City last weekend. Chad Pennington won’t be dropping snaps, and Laveranues Coles won’t be dropping passes. What will be happening is Curtis Martin running with the ball, fast and effective. Curtis needs to succeed for the Jets to get where they want to be. Miami can’t stop the Jets when Curtis is running the ball, and Chad Pennington is play action passing. The Jets defense is strong enough to shut out Ferrote and the rest of the Dolphins. I’m betting those New York Jets play up to their ability this week. Game Date: 09/18/05 16:15 ET
San Diego (+3) @ Denver – San Diego has LT. This week Antonio Gates is back. Denver lost to Miami 34-10. C’mon.
Game Date: 09/18/05 16:15 ET
Kansas City (-1) @ Oakland – The Chiefs just tore into the New York Jets in their opener. The Chiefs look like the old Kansas City team that started the season 9-0 a couple of years ago. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson look like the best running back tandem in the NFL. In fact I’d rate Priest number 1 and Larry wouldn’t be too far behind. Especially, if he keeps doing what he’s doing. And I don’t mean getting arrested. Oakland got pushed around by the Patriots. Even when the score was close, the Raiders looked like everything they did was so difficult while the Patriots didn’t even get a brow sweat. The Raiders dropped the passes that did get to them, and Kerry Collins threw the rest of them up for grabs. Lamont Jordan played pretty well, rushing for 70 and receiving for 40 yards. He’s a big back who will give the Chiefs another tough test. The Kansas City defense will be up for the challenge, as they looked much improved from yesteryear. Until Kerry Collins stops throwing lob passes every chance he gets, I don’t think the Raiders can beat a good team. He hasn’t stopped doing that since he was 7, so the Raiders will struggle often. Trent Green does just enough to win games. He leads his team and doesn’t make many mistakes. Unless the unthinkable happens, the Chiefs will slaughter the Oakland Raiders in Oakland. Game Date: 09/18/05 20:30 ET
N.Y. Giants @ New Orleans (+3) – The Saints are playing a home game in New York against the Giants. The Giants slaughtered the new and improved Arizona Cardinals. The Saints stumbled to a victory over the Panthers. Every year the Saints underachieve. All things point to trouble for the Saints. But that’s what’s so great about this team. They’ve always needed something to play for and now they have it, New Orleans. I don’t want to get all sentimental, because this is football and Hurricane Katrina is life. But the Saints have a new reason to go out on the field every single week and win. That’s all they’ve ever needed. Whether it’s in San Antonio, New Orleans, or Egypt, the New Orleans Saints are going to come with it every single game. And they have the talent to win a lot of games if they play like that. Deuce McCallister will find room to run against the wobbly New York Giant defense, and Aaron Brooks will pick his places to shine. Look for Joe Horn to have a big game in the spotlight in New York. Eli Manning still hasn’t impressed me much, but Tiki Barbar can really play this game. Barbar will keep the Giants in it, but Saint confidence will keep New Orleans on top. Game Date: 09/19/05 19:30 ET
Washington @ Dallas (-6) – I’d love to say that I believe the Washington Redskins are going to win. I’d say that Mark Brunell is the new starter and he gives the Redskins something Patrick Ramsey doesn’t. I’d even talk about how Clinton Portis looks like he’s finally found out how to run in Joe Gibbs’ scheme. And that defense, hell, I wouldn’t even be fibbing when I said they were a very good group. But the bottom line is, Dallas looks like a better team than Washington. The Washington Redskins barely skipped by the Bears and rookie signal caller Kyle Orton, 9-7. Playing in Dallas on Monday night against the Cowboys. This is going to be tough, but I’m taking Dallas. Last year was great. I bet against Dallas every week, and they made me look great. Plus I don’t like the Cowboys. I don’t like that stupid star on their helmet, the fact that they claim to be America’s team, and I really hate those stupid Jerry Jones commercials when he talks about the “12 person hot-tub shaped like Texas Stadium”. But I need victories like Jerry Jones needs a new face, so I have to go with the more talented team here, and that is surely the Dallas Cowboys. Julius Jones looks really good, and Drew Bledsoe wasn’t a complete piece of crap last week. Mark Brunell hasn’t had it for some time, and Clinton Portis is in a rushing scheme that makes him slow down and wait for blocks. All signs point to a big Cowboy win in Dallas.
Game Date: 09/19/05 21:05 ET
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