Hello and welcome. Football season is upon us. Hooray pig skin! Hooray beer! Hooray Sundays sacked on the sofa! This is Lucky Lester storming back from a .500 record a year ago, relaxed and ready for a sophomore performance that will have us rolling in the money. Last year, week one was my best single week record, and this year should be no different. If you weren’t here for the 2004-’05 season, this is how it works. week in and week out I’ll make my picks. I’ll give reasons, both personal and otherwise, that support my decision on each game. I’ll keep a log of what happened each week, and you can always check out my follow up articles to see how I did. Are you ready for some big hits? Well, get ready for that as well as some Lambeau leaps, bulldogs dressed in dresses, and home team heroics? Once again the odds-makers have stumbled out of the box, and I’m standing to make a pretty penny off of their mistakes.Oakland (+7.5) @ New England – This is Randy Moss’ big day. The Black and Silver has been calling him since he was rocking a bong in the dressing room on draft day. That was the day Al Davis put a little notch in his little black book. The only thing holding this relationship back was some run-ins with the local law enforcement, a premature evacuation from a game, and too much running of the mouth. Thanks Randy, Al’s dream has come true. Fortunately for Mr. Davis, Moss hasn’t only brought his off the field antics to the Raiders, but comes accompanied by the greatest receiving ability the NFL has. Oakland has a buzz about them; you could see it during the preseason. Kerry Collins finally has someone he can’t overthrow, which should dwindle his interception numbers. Lamont Jordan should bring a steady rushing attack to a team that didn’t produce a thousand yard back last year. And don’t count out the defense. It wasn’t too long ago that Charles Woodson was one of the best corners in the league. If he can return to form, and the 600+ pound duo of Ted Washington and Warren Sapp can perform up to their standards, this team could be scary. As for the defending champs, they should be up to their same old tricks. They’ll have to be to have a chance in a tough AFC. They’ve lost a lot of the coaching staff genius that helped them win the last two Super Bowls. They’ve also lost Teddy Bruschi. Ty Law has joined the Jets, and I don’t think they can do it again. Tom Brady’s a great quarterback and Corey Dillon was everything the Pats needed in his first year with the team, but is that enough? Their Heart and Soul, Ted, is out for the year, and I think it will bring them down. Take Oakland to get closer than a touchdown, making them winners in my mind, and more importantly the bookie’s.
Game Date: 09/08/05 21:00 ET
Denver (-5) @ Miami – There is no reason the Bronco’s shouldn’t be favored by a couple of touchdowns against a team that doesn’t own a decent college starter. Okay, Gus Ferotte was pretty good, but AJ Feely, he didn’t even play for the Oregon Ducks. As if that wasn’t enough, the perennially tough as nails defense was torn apart and put up for sale to any bidder. In fact, most high priced stars, like Patrick Surtain, were just cut. That makes for a tough year for the Nick Saban led Dolphins. If the defense can’t keep them in games, there is no way the Dolphins stumble on a handful of wins, let alone a win against a solid team from Denver. Ronnie Brown might find room against an average run defense, but I can’t see enough from the passing game to keep the Fins within a touchdown. The only question from this game, who will be the “real”, featured back in Denver? Who will add his name to the 1000-yard back club? Tatum Bell? Or will it be an old name, Mike Anderson? This is as easy as it gets. Pick the Broncos in what has the makings of an old fashion blow out, Firestone-style. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Cleveland – The Browns aren’t worth a bet until Trent Dilfer proves he can still win football games as the head signal caller. The Browns aren’t without weapons though. Braylon Edwards has shown glimpses of his future stardom, and Reuben Droughns has proven he can pile up the yardage. Defense is where the Browns will struggle. They lost their best corner to the Ravens, and they have a completely new coaching staff. Dilfer has never proven he’s a winner without a dominant defense behind him. Things won’t change against the steadily improving Bengals. I’m sure everyone’s heard it a thousand times this preseason, but I’m pretty confident this will be the year Carson Palmer makes his bid for a Pro Bowl. He has one of the best young receivers in the game as his go to guy, Chad Johnson. Rudi Johnson is as steady as they come, and Marvin Lewis has worked wonders with an average defense to get them into the overall top ten a year ago. This year will be even better for young Bengals. Cinci is a play or two away from the playoffs. Cleveland is a win or two away from the number one pick in next years draft. This one, like the Bronco game, is a no-brainer. Take the Bengals on the road in a quick stomping of Romeo’s first game as a head coach.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Houston @ Buffalo (-5.5) – The Buffalo Bills are a popular pick to win their way into the playoffs this year. If you haven’t heard, this is why. Drew Bledsoe was released, and JP Losman will take over as the leader of a team that desperately needed to drop the fat 7th grader who’d been taking poorly timed sacks and throwing 4th quarter interceptions for the last year and a half. Losman may be young and immature compared to Drew, but he could cartwheel down the field faster than Bledsoe could sprint. That’s not saying JP has the form of a gymnast either. What You Talking ‘Bout Willis McGahee will finally be fully recovered from his knee injury that kept him out of football his rookie season. Last year was just a glimpse of what was to come from the former Hurricane, this year should make us awe. Buffalo has the best defense in football. After a preseason scrimmage, Brett Favre said he hopes they don’t play them during the season. Houston was hoping the same thing. SOL. Houston should be a good team this year. David Carr has looked poor throughout the preseason, making people question if he’ll ever have the breakout year everyone has expected. Dominick Davis is one of the best young backs in the league, when he’s healthy. But he’s been a slow starter since he broke into the league. Look for Houston to stumble out of the box, allowing the Buffalo defense to make big plays early. The Texans will fall down early, never to resurface with the lead.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7) – The Steelers might be a bit overrated a year after their 15-1 regular season record. But, they’re still a good team. 15-1? No. Opening dominance against the Titans. Indeed. Roethlisburger will get plenty of chances to find wide open receivers against a team that lost both of their starting receivers to “rebuilding-disease”. Steve McNair is back and supposedly better than ever, though he’s lost his favorite receiver and a chunk of why the Titans were so good the last few years. Derrick Mason has a new home in Baltimore, and McNair’s never had a good on-field relationship with talented wideout Drew Bennett. I fully expect the Steeler offensive attack to struggle without Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley, but Willie Parker will find holes in a suspect defensive line, and Hines Ward will show why he deserves the new contract he held-out for. Big Ben will calm down at the end of the first half and the Steelers will pull away from the Titans. A close first half will end closer to a blowout than anything else. Steelers win big; the Titans get one game closer to the end of the season.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Chicago @ Washington (-5.5) – In a real crowd-pleasing move, the NFL brass has already put together the game of the year. The Super Bowl hopeful Bears and the strong and consistent Redskins meet in what could be a real post season match-up. Yah right! This is anything but a top-notch contest, but at least Tag’s snuck these two teams into the same game. Good work. The Bears’ season drooled down the drain when Rex Grossman had an early exit, again. First year pro, Kyle Orton, will have the reigns in what promises to be everything but promising. Mushin Muhammad is still a touchdown threat anywhere in the red-zone, and the tandem of Thomas Jones and rookie rusher Cedric Benson should be formidable. Getting to the red-zone, or even the next first down marker, is going to be the challenge. The Bears have a solid defense, but not when they’ve been on the field for 75% of the game, and they will be. They better be in good shape. Washington has a tough defense that lost a little punch with the departure of Fred Smoot. Shawn Springs’ ability to stay healthy, and LaVar Arrington’s come back from a flurry of injuries will make the difference between a top flight and average defense for the Skins. Patrick Ramsey, who’s looked “ehhhh” this preseason, and for his entire career for that matter, will make another attempt at leading the Redskins to the playoffs. Clinton Portis should be much improved from his worst year ever. The trade of Larverneus Coles for Santana Moss won’t pay dividends, but that won’t keep Joe Gibbs from trouncing the overmatched Bears and starting the season with a much-needed win. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New Orleans @ Carolina (-7) – The Saints still have the talented group of youngsters they’ve always had. Well I guess they’re middle-agers now. Either way, everyone and their brother knows Jim Haslet has himself a set of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Will the signing of Dwight Smith, an ex-Buc, give the Saints what the need to get to the next level? Maybe. Will it help them beat Carolina in Carolina? Not today Junior. The Panthers are as good as they’ve been, even with Pro Bowler Mushin Muhammad in a Bears uniform. Steve Smith is back, and opposed to what he says, he’s as good and fast as ever. Steven Davis is back in the backfield with Deshaun Foster, and they still have that D. Carolina will be swinging for the fences this year. Julius Peppers might be the biggest talent in all of football, and Kris Jenkins, Mike Rucker, ex-Seahawk Ken Lucas, and the rest of the Panther D will keep opposing teams on lockdown all year long. Aaron Brooks and all his inconsitency won’t be an exception. Look for Brooks to get hit often on Sunday. The Saints defense looked dismal against the run all preseason, and now they have to play the pound it in your face Panthers on opening day. Talented Saints running back Deuce McAllister will find some yardage early, but it won’t be enough to keep the Panthers from taking the game by two touchdowns. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-6) – The Vikings are better since the departure of Randy Moss. As are the Raiders, but that’s another story. The Vikings can only worry about the Vikings, and aside from a Whizzenator, the headlines about the mishaps and screw-ups of Viking star players has been nil since Moss’s departure. One point for Minnesota. Daunte Culpepper is still the talented one-man attack he’s always been, and always was, even when Moss was out with injuries for 6 games last year. All Daunte needed was a defense to hold their end of the bargain. With the departure of Randy Moss, the Vikings had enough room on payroll to get the players they needed to level off that side of the ball. As for the offense, Daunte still has big play options with Nate Burleson, Michael Bennett, and rookie blazer Troy Williamson. I mean “speed” blazer, not “Randy Moss during the off season” blazer. Plus, the Vikings always start out 5-0. Tampa Bay finally has the fixings for a rushing attack with rookie star Carnell Williams manning the backfield. Brian Griese has shown that he can be a decent starting quarterback, but can he lead the Buc’s to a winning season and a playoff picture? Only time will tell. Tampa’s defense has always been stout, and this year will be no different. Some key loses have brought them down from their pedestal, but top 10 won’t be a stretch. My opening day diagnosis is this; the Vikings will use their offensive fire power to pull ahead early. Some big plays from Carnell Williams will have the Buc’s fighting back early in the second half, but Culpepper will keep the Tampa Bay comeback-excitement to rest with a vintage-Culpepper bomb to rookie wideout Troy Williamson. The new and improved Viking D will step-up and make a big play down the stretch, keeping the Vikings up 10 as time expires. Take the Vikes in an exciting game in Minnesota. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Seattle @ Jacksonville (-3) – Seattle made some good moves in the off-season, keeping their big three; Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasslebeck, and Walter Jones. Koren Robinson and the fiasco that was his career in Seattle is now over, and the Seahawk brass can go to sleep at night knowing their star receiver won’t be in jail with a DUI in the morning. Unfortunately for the Seahawks there is a downside to the absence of Koren Robinson. Somebody else has to start opposite Jackson. That someone will be Bobby Engram and a plethora of different names and faces. If someone or a couple of them step up, watch out for the Seahawk offensive attack. As for now, I have to bet the Seattle offense continues to struggle, and the Jacksonville defense, which is very underrated, will take advantage of Seattle shortcomings. Byron Leftwich is going into his third year. He should be better than ever. Fred Taylor looked healthy in his single preseason performance, which means good things for the Jags and their fans. Reggie Williams has looked like the guy the Jags drafted, instead of the imposter that showed up last year. This is great for Leftwich, who should have Jimmy Smith, Williams, Matt Jones, and Taylor to get the pig to. The Jag’s defensive line got some much needed help when they signed Reggie Hayward in the off season. The Jaguars are on their way to the playoffs. They’ll start with a tough game at home against a good Seahawk team, but they should come out on top. Three points is nothing at home, and the Jags look to be the better team. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New York Jets (+3) @ Kansas City – The Jets and the Chiefs. What a game. This is my pick for game of the week. Philly-Atlanta should be grand, and Colts-Ravens will be fun, but no game excites me more than Priest Holmes running his legs at one of the most improved teams in the league. This Jets defense just got better and better last year, and this year will be no different. Ty Law is now a Jet, and his leadership and shutdown ability on the corner will give the Jets a huge lift. Trent Green lost his number one receiver, Jonnie Morton. But Eddie Kennison will flash his ability as the first receiver option in Kansas City. But really, everyone knows Tony Gonzalez is Trents real number one, and he’s wearing red and white. Holmes has one of the most exciting backups in football, Larry Johnson. He’ll get his chances to make things happen. Will all the new defensive additions be enough to get the Chiefs to the Super Bowl? Kendrell Bell, Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight, and rookie linebacker Derrick Johnson have a big task ahead of them, because God knows the Kansas City defense was as bad as any team in the NFL. Both teams will flash their fury, awing the masses, and reminding us why we all love football. In the end one of these great teams has to lose. The Jets are too steady on both sides of the ball, and the Chiefs, who’ve yet to gel into the cohesive defensive unit that they’ll become will fall just short on opening day. Chad Pennington will be happy to have his old pal, Coles, back on the field. Curtis Martin, future hall-of-famer Curtis Martin, will have one of his classic opening days. Coach Edwards will be all smiles after a powerful performance against the playoff bound Chiefs. His Jets will escape Kansas City with a road victory.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Arizona (+2.5) @ New York Giants – The Cardinals are getting plenty of hype this off-season. I don’t know if it’s Dennis Green, a great draft, or the abundance of talent the Cardinals have all over the field, but I like Arizona to do big things all year on their way to the playoffs. Weird. I never thought I’d be saying that. I don’t think Kurt Warner will look like the MVP he was in St. Louis, but I do think he’ll look rejuvenated with the talent he has around him. JJ Arrington has had a tough preseason, but he’ll come around, and in the meantime, the Cards still have Marcel Shipp and others to contribute. The Giants might be starting Tim Hasselbeck. If that happens to be a truth by the time you read this, stop reading now and make a bet on the Cardinals… If Eli Manning is still the starter, well, do the same thing. Manning isn’t ready to lead these Giants to the playoffs, or an opening day win against the much-improved Cardinals. Tiki Barbar is one of the most underrated backs in the league, but who knows if and or when his “fumblitis” will return. Week 1? Plaxico Burress was a number 2 receiver in Pittsburgh. He’s being asked to be Eli’s go-to-guy. Will he fold under the pressure? Or will he step up to his potential? The Giants defense gets Michael Strahan back, but he won’t be enough to keep the Giants on top in New York. Arizona has too many weapons in their arsenal, and Kurt Warner is too excited to snap the towel on the team that sat him down last year when the playoffs weren’t so far away. Eli’s first year as a full time starter will begin with a loss at home, and an entire week of “How does it feel to get beat by Kurt?” questions. Good luck Eli!
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
St. Louis (-6) @ San Francisco – This is the easiest game of the week. I plan to make all my money right here. The Rams will slaughter the 49ers. Do I think the Rams are that good? Not at all, in fact, I think they’ll be lucky to be 9-7 this year. But I’ll tell you one thing I’m sure of; two of those wins will come from games against San Francisco. Tim Rattay will be starting for the 49ers, which has never seemed to workout for the club. Things won’t change. Steven Jackson is too good for the Niner defense to stop, hell, so is Marshal Faulk, or maybe even Marsha Brady? This game will be good for a few good highlights though, so it might be worth a check-in from time to time. “Bulger deep to Holt,” “Bulger long to Bruce,” “Bulger with a deep interception,” “Steven Jackson 60 yards down the right side.” Something along those lines. Notice, there is no 49er scoring involved in those highlights. Don’t be amazed if that actually happens. Rams huge, think 35-3. Game Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Green Bay @ Detroit (-3) – I never thought I’d see the day Detroit was favored against Green Bay. Now I can’t believe the Lions are only favored by 3 in Detroit. Everyone knows the Lions play good ball at home, and everyone also knows that you can’t have a good team with a terrible defense and a shoddy offensive line. The Pack has both. The Pack also has Brett Favre. This is both good and bad. He’s going to throw touchdowns… and interceptions. This year could be the year Brett ends up on the south end of .500. What a way to go out. Ahman Green has looked miserable rushing behind the makeshift line in ‘Sconsin. Brett has had both good and bad games in the preseason, but who cares right, that was preseason. Detroit has been happy with Joey Harrington’s performance this preseason, and they better be, because Jeff Garcia is out for the year with a broken chicken leg. So much for a quarterback controversy. Harrington will actually have to try to do poorly to keep the Lions out of games. All over the field Detroit has playmakers. Jumpballs might be one of the Lion’s biggest weapons. Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charlie Rogers, Kevin Jones… my God, just throw the damn ball down field, see what happens. Those 4 guys would kill in a 4×100 relay. They’ll win this game, too. Take the Lions in a high scoring event.
Game Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Dallas @ San Diego (-4.5) – San Diego is without their biggest receiving threat, tight end Antonio Gates. He’s suspended for the first game because of his little holdout. That was a good move. Idiots. Anyway, even without Gates, the Chargers still have the upper hand. Ladainian Tomlinson is the best the NFL has to offer, and Drew Brees hasn’t seemed to have lost the magic he pulled out of his helmet a year ago. Keenan McCardell has had an entire off season to learn the Charger offense, which should add to his effectiveness. Reche Caldwell is back after an injury cost him most of his third year. He was in the process of breaking out before he went out broken. Look for him to be a bigger part of the offensive attack in San Diego this year. Even with the good draft, and big off-season, I don’t think the Dallas Cowboys will come out victorious in this one. Drew Bledsoe has gotten mixed reviews during the preseason. Figure that, Drew Bledsoe, inconsistent. Wow! Dallas went out and bought offensive line help, which should add to Drew effectiveness. Unfortunately, they didn’t go out and get Drew some legs or a brain. Drew will still hold the ball too long and get sacked because he’s about as mobile as an upside down turtle. And he’ll definitely still throw into double coverage… interception! I can’t wait to see the blank stare on Parcells face the first time Drew sends a beautiful spiral to Quentin Jammer (Charger cornerback). The Chargers defense was young last year. Another year under their belt has only made them better. Look for Drew Brees and company to light up the overrated Dallas defense, eliciting laughter from me, and a look of horror on Bill’s face as his Cowboys fall short in the season opener. Game Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Indianapolis @ Baltimore (+3) – This is one of the better games of the day. Will the Colts number one ranked secondary be able to stop the talented signal caller, Kyle Boller? What can I say? That lines a load of BS. The Colts secondary, right near the bottom of the league, is depleted, and injury ridden. Kyle Boller is… bad. But he has too many weapons and coaching specialists to fail. And if anyone can keep Peyton Manning and the Colts from scoring a ton of points, it has to be Ray Lewis and his group of trusty steeds. Right? If Jamal Lewis can step in and play like he can, the Ravens will upset the Super Bowl favored Colts in Baltimore. Even Kyle Boller should be able to light up the Colts secondary. Baltimore might have the best defensive players one team has ever had. Samarri Rolle is great, in fact, every single one of their defensive backs is fantastic. Their fourth guy is Neon Deion. How much better can it get? Look for the Ravens to take the Colts in this opener. It isn’t the popular pick, but it’s the right one. Manning will be limited to a couple touchdown passes, and one too many interceptions. Boller will look good, which might be the last time all year, leading his team to an opening day victory. Or should I say riding their defense to victory? Either way, Ravens win. Game Date: 09/11/05 20:30 ET
Philadelphia (-1) @ Atlanta – This is a great Monday night opener. Philly has been picked by just about everyone to repeat as NFC Champions, and I’m not one to argue. Their defense is back in full force. Donovan McNabb and TO looked to be on the same page in their lone preseason game. Brian Westbrook is very underrated. He’s a great speedy back who can catch passes and do just about everything you can ask from a guy. Donovan McNabb hasn’t gotten nearly enough credit for what he’s become in such a short time. He’s Philly’s MVP, bar none. Philly’s defense took a big hit when Corey Simon was released last week, but they don’t seem to be worried about it, so you shouldn’t either. Mike Vick has played very little snaps in the preseason, but he looked good. He has improved as a pocket passer, which unfortunately, the Falcons want him to be. The Eagles defense is too good to let Vick pick them apart from the pocket. Look for more interceptions than touchdowns from Vick. Michael Jenkins and Roddy White as starting receivers? I don’t know if I’m as excited as Mike sounds in interviews. Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett will help keep the Falcons on the top of team rushing, and both should find a little room against an average run stuffing D. But that won’t be enough. This should be a good game featuring two playoff bound ball clubs, but the Eagles will show their NFC superiority late, getting the win by a touchdown or two. Take the Eagles, because that’s what I’d do. Game Date: 09/12/05 21:00 ET
Well folks there you have it, my picks for week one. Make sure you come back to check out Lucky Lester’s picks for week two of what should turn out to be an excellent football season.
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