Free Football Picks 06-07 Week 9

It’s back to what I know best. These teams are winning on Sunday. They’re coming out and smashing faces, crushing heads, and taking numbers for the second half. Speaking of second halves, this is the start of mine. After a very mediocre first 8 weeks of NFL Football, this is my beginning to a run to the playoffs.TOP 5 Bets – Ordered Numerically by LL himself;

1. Dallas over Washington
2. Atlanta over Detroit
3. Minnesota over San Francisco
4. Denver over the Steelers
5. Kansas City over St. Louis

Atlanta (-5) at Detroit: Riding Michael Vick’s rainbow ride might get me in trouble here, but even without Vick throwing for 4 touchdowns against the Lions, I still can’t see Atlanta winning by less than a touchdown. Ride Atlanta’s newfound offensive explosion as they play the Lions in Detroit, where offenses shine.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3): This is a tough game for me. I like what the Bengals can be and have been in the past, but I also like the Ravens toughness on defense. Because of Carson Palmers’ inability to throw the ball accurately when he’s under pressure, something I’m sure the Ravens will put on him, I have to take Baltimore. Watching the game last week against Atlanta, I saw Palmer let up a little on his stride when the pocket was hectic. Against Baltimore that means interceptions. Turnovers translate to wins.

Dallas (-3) at Washington: I just can’t see the Cowboys losing this game. Tony Romo already had a mistake filled half against New York, so don’t expect him to be thunderstruck again in the Nation’s Capitol. Washington is better than their record, but at some point you just have to admit, they can’t find ways to win ball games. The Cowboys have more talent all over the field, and unless a Santana Moss Miracle explodes in the 4th quarter, I don’t see the Redskins competing in this game, nor do I see Mark Brunell finishing the 2nd Half. Ride the Cowboys high, and throw eggs at Drew Bledsoe from above!

Green Bay at Buffalo (-3): Green Bay is playing way better than they are. That’s right, you heard me, this Packer winning streak is something that should never happen. Buffalo has played like a pile of feces lately, but they still have a tough defense and a running game that can take down Green Bay. JP Losman has to play well or he’ll get pulled for Kelly Holcomb, either way, the Bills will be in a good spot. Kelly has a knack for coming in and playing well in a crunch, and JP has the talent to produce. That being said, all the Bills need is decent quarterback play to upend the Packer winning streak. They’ll get it this weekend at home.

Houston at N.Y. Giants (-13): This game will be a huge test for David Carr, the Giants team, and Tiki Barber. Carr will get another chance, so his confidence will be tested. Will he drop back and throw the ball like a man? Or will he drop back and try not to get benched by making a mistake. I like Carr, so I hope he does well, but I have a feeling he might be trying not to make mistakes, something that doesn’t bode well for the Texans. As for the Giants, everyone and their mother knows New York has to win this game, because when you have a freebee, you have to take it. The Giants psyche will be tested here. Can they win the games they absolutely are supposed to? And Tiki. Yes, Tiki will get the rock, and maybe even the chance to saunder into the end zone at home. With all the Tiki talk frolicking about, it’ll be nice to see Tiki have his best game of the season on Sunday.

Kansas City (+3) at St. Louis: The Chiefs are starting to catch their stride as the Rams are losers of 2 straight. Neither team has much room for error here, and while I’d like to make it clear that the Chiefs are 1-3 away from home, I’m rolling with Damon Huard, and mostly, the Running Man, one Larry Johnson. Larry is back to the guy he was last season, and soon the Chiefs get last years’ starting tackle, John Winborn, back from injury. The Chiefs are starting to get comfortable with Herman Edwards, and since I believe the Chiefs are playoff bound, I have to take them to upset the Rams on the road.

Miami at Chicago (-13.5): To start with, let me tell you that the Dolphins have yet to lose a game by more than 11 points all season long. However, they haven’t played the Bears yet. As Chicago has streaked to an undefeated opening, once again they come up to the Dolphins treading water in their way. While Miami is historically a team that crushes undefeated hopes, this will not be one of those times. I’ve got to believe that the Bears won’t come out salty like they did in Arizona. No more, “take games for granted” out of these Bears. They are so much tougher than Miami, they should win by 4 touchdowns. But History and a mighty spread keep me wary of this one, keeping it out of my Top 5.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+1): Defensive football teams are a big time struggle for the Saints. Tampa Bay struggled last week against New York, but, defensively they were still very sound. Tampa Bay’s offense will play better, and this low scoring, close game will go to the home team.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-9):

Minnesota (-6.5) at San Francisco: I know the Vikings just got manhandled by New England and one Tom Brady, but the 49ers aren’t New England, and Alex Smith is no Tom Brady. Minnesota will walk in this game. The Vikes haven’t lost in this match-up since 1998, and the last time San Francisco was within 6.5 points at the end of the game, besides their win over Oakland, was St. Louis in Week 2. This shouldn’t be a contest, as even Brad Johnson can throw against the Niner defensive backfield.

Cleveland Browns (+14) at San Diego: The Browns looked much better under Romeo Crenell’s new offensive mindset, and Charlie Frye won’t have to deal with Shawn Merriman, so I’m rolling with the Browns and two touchdowns. Cleveland has a talented team, and with a new approach on offense, Frye should be able to pass efficiently enough for Cleveland to give San Diego a scare on Sunday.

Denver (+3) at Pittsburgh: I don’t see the Steelers’ season turning around here. A week after getting Manning’ed by the Colts, Shanahan’s crew will bounce back in Pittsburgh. Mike Bell has the power to rush effectively against the Steelers, while Denver’s defense should get back on track against a struggling Ben Roethlisberger and a rushing attack that hasn’t impressed all season long. I hate to do it, but I’m taking Denver to roll the Steelers.

Indianapolis (+1) at New England: I’m going with the Colts here, but not because the Patriots are overrated, or bad, or anything of that sort. I’m going with Peyton Manning here because I know he can take advantage of the Patriots shortcomings on defense. This should be one hell of a game, but Peyton gets the nod, as he’s been amazing the last few weeks.

Oakland at Seattle (-8): Without Matt Hasselbeck, without Shaun Alexander, without God’s good graces, the Seahawks will still dominate the Raiders. Oakland comes in winners of their last two games, sure, but there is no way they get that lucky 3 times in a row. Their team is terrible, and the Hawks defense isn’t as bad as it has been lately. Expect a drumming in the 35-13 range on Monday Night.

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