After a blundering stumble last week, you can bet I’m doing my damnedest to get back on track with my first HUGE WINNER of the young season. I’m only a couple games down on the year, overall, but I’m itching to celebrate. Read ’em and take ’em!Buffalo Bills (+12) @ Chicago Bears: A little bird on my shoulder tells me I’m dead wrong about this game, and the Dolphins game (read below) but I’m not much for listening to feather-headed seed-eaters, so let me explain. Despite the world’s declaration that the Bears are the best team in the NFC, and the world for that matter, I think they are very similar to the Minnesota Vikings. The Bills are much better than people think, as they haven’t been had by more than 10 points all season long, and their defense is getting better and better. A let down after last week’s big win over the Hawks is bound to bully the Bears. Unlike the Hawks, the Bills will have a workhorse to keep the chicago secondary honest. That fact alone will keep this game closer than 10 points.
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers (-8): I’m worried about the Panthers covering here, because I think the Browns are very similar to Tampa Bay, but, now the Panthers have a healthy Steve Smith, as he has seemingly invigorated the entire offense. Steve’s first game back against the Bucs was a little slow, but now he’s really back. The running game is more productive, and Jake Delhomme looks better as well. The Bucs have a better defense than the Browns, so expect a bigger margin of victory here. With the ability to run the ball, the Panthers will get out to an early lead, and be able to hold it. The Panthers will get their 1st convincing win of the season, reminding people why many had them picked to see the Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5): I would like to choose the Lions here, because the Vikings have hit a wall offensively, and the Lions have show offensive production over the last two weeks, but this isn’t a week-by-week league, this is football, and honestly, nobody should care what the Lions did against the Packers and Rams. And they still loss by 7 in each of those games. I think Minnesota is close to Chicago, though I seem to be the only one, and because of that, I expect the Lions to be held in check while Minnesota will find plenty of holes to run in at home. Chester Taylor will be ready and roaring to sprint out of the gates after last weeks 10 rush 23 yard performance against Buffalo. It’d be nice to see Mike Martz get off the snide this week, but… Actually, I hope that idiot doesn’t win a game all year. Basically, it’s not going to happen, and people will start to see how good the Vikings can be in Week 5.
Miami Dolphins (+10.5) @ New England Patriots: That little bird once again expects to see me lose this contest. The Patriots are too strong, and the Dolphins lost to the freaking Texans. Ah, but look closer into the magic ball young feathery fellow. The Dolphins’ talent is obviously there. They struggle on the offensive line, but coaching can quell that, shorter drops, more running plays. So all the need is a wake-up call. How about a loss to the freaking Texans? Yes, that’ll do just fine. Miami knows going into this game, they can’t freelance and win against New England. They’ll play tough, they’ll probably get the win over a very overrated Patriots team that is coming off a huge win over Cincinnati.
St. Louis Rams (-2) @ Green Bay Packers: I don’t know what the Packers did to get any respect, but I’d take any team, sans the Titans and Raiders, at 2 point favorites over the Packers. New Rams’ coach, Scott Linehan, won’t let his squad play like they did against another cellar dweller, San Fran, so expect them to be ready for the Pack. The Rams are a pretty solid team, one that will run with success on nearly ever team in the league, (Especially Green Bay), and it’s not as if Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Marc Bulger are limited through the air, either. If there’s one thing the Packers can’t do, it’s win football games over well balanced solid football teams. The Rams aren’t great, they surely aren’t flashy, but a three-touchdown win in Green Bay wouldn’t surprise me one little bit.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) @ New Orleans Saints: Call me crazy, but it’s happened before. Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Charlie Frye, Kyle Orton, and this week Bruce Gradkowski. Those first three guys came in early, and gave their teams a fighting chance. I’m not jumping on the “Bruce is the next Brady, of Big Ben” bandwagon, but I know he throws accurately, and the rest of the Bucs will be giving a million percent to try and get their first win in 4 tries. Defensively, the Bucs are probably the best team the Saints have faced this season. Brees will have trouble, and though the Bucs might not get the W, they will cover that mighty spread.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-18): Last season, the Titans were destroyed by the Colts 31-10 and 35-3 in two AFC games. Something tells me these games won’t be that close. With Big Al getting suspended for 5 games by the league, the Titans will struggle stopping Indy’s rush attack, even. Last season, the games would have been farther apart, except that the Colts had Edge to pound some time off the clock. This year, Manning will pass and the Titans will suffer. I hate 18 point spreads unless we’re talking college football, but this is a bet I have to take.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-4): This is a tough one, but sooner or later you’d have to bet the Giants will put at least 2 solid quarters together. If they do that, they’ll upend the Redskins in New York. Eli Manning is more accurate this season, and if the coaching staff can eliminate their own mistakes, Eli will benefit. This is a great rivaly game in the NFC East, and a loss here would mean almost sure death for the Giants who would fall to 1-3. I think the Redskins will finish ahead of New York, but in this one, the Giants have more to play for. Give the Giants the nod at home over Washington.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals really struggle against run first teams. The Chiefs just happen to be a run first, run second, and run or pass 3rd type of team. Arizona barely beat a very bad 49er team in Week 1, and have lost 3 straight since then. Contrary to many popular beliefs, starting a rookie quarterback who missed all of training camp, and most of the preseason, isn’t an upgrade, even from turnover happy, Kurt Warner. Expect the Chiefs to have a week similar to last week.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7): The Colts beat the Jaguars by 7, and the Colts only took the Jets by 3, so you’d think I’d roll with New York, but, ah ha, you’re wrong. Like I said before the Jags/Colts game, Jacksonville is the better team. At home, they’ll prove their worth by promptly stomping New York. Their defense is too good, and offensively, Jacksonville will be able to run and pass efficiently. Take the Jags, even with this huge spread.
Oakland Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers (-3): Like I said last week, I’ll take anyone against the Raiders. Andrew Walter just showed me how bad he is throwing the ball, and once the 49ers figure that out (their coaching staff is smart – they should already know that) they will put 9 guys in the box and limit LaMont Jordan’s rushing room all day long. San Fran isn’t a good football team, but they can run, pass, and once in a blue moon, they can defend. Expect the only easy victory the 49ers will have all season long.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1): The Eagles will have Brian Westbrook back for this game, that’s why the Eagles held him out against the pathetic Packers. They knew they could handle Brett and his boys without their best offensive weapon, so they rested Westbrook for the Dallas showdown. The Eagles are the better team here, as they’ll show early and often. It should be one hell of a game, with TO and Donovan, and the Eagle D, and all that good stuff that should be all over Sportcenter all week long. But take the Eagles at home in a game I can’t believe they’re only getting a point in. Has Dallas really shown that they are better than Philly? I sure as hell don’t think so. If the Eagles can play 4 quarters strong, and I’m sure they’ll be up for the task with TO in town, they will pistol whip the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ San Diego Charges: Pittsburgh at 1-3 isn’t something I think will happen. Though I have to say, the Chargers will be spitting blood and guts after last weeks tumble to the Ravens. They’ll be ready for Big Ben and the Steelers. The thing that catches my eye here is the Steelers after a bye. They don’t lose. The last two seasons, with Big Ben at the helm, the Steelers have beaten San Diego last year, and New England the year before that, after the bye week. For Coach Cowher and Mr. Weisenhunt, a week off only allows them to schematically dominate the football game. Pittsburgh isn’t headed to the Super Bowl, but they remain a good football team. Expect Big Ben to play better after the two weeks he had to get ready.
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos (-3.5): After flirting with disaster the last two weeks, (15-14 win over Browns and 16-13 comeback over San Diego) the Ravens will finally fall to the Broncos. First of all, and I hate to bet on something as ridiculous as this, but, Mike Shanahan and the Broncos always win on Monday Night Football. I think the Ravens are better than Denver, but on this night, at home in the cool air of Colorado. Denver, like Pittsburgh, is money after a bye week, (they’ve won their last 3 by a combined score of 102-38). Baltimore owns this match-up, but you can only play with fire so long. A nice wake-up call here for Baltimore, and a Broncos stomping will be exactly that, should get the Ravens out of their offensive slump. Take Denver because the mouse man always wins on Monday Night.