Category Archives: News

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Tiered 2B Rankings

Posted on by

The influx in talent at 2B has been amazing. This used to be one of the more shallow positions in baseball, and getting a guy that could put up good numbers here was worth a reach on draft day. That’s just not the case anymore as 2B has turned into a powerhouse of little guys that do it all. The AL MVP was 5’6″ Dustin Pedroia and all the way down the list guys put up numbers worthy of stronger positions. Being one of the last teams in your league to select a 2B shouldn’t leave you hurting for power, but instead getting nice value from a guy like Jose Lopez or Mark DeRosa. These are my 2B Rankings for 2009.

Tier 1

1. Chase Utley – There are some health concerns with Utley, but he says he’ll be back by opening day, and how can you question one of the toughest and best hitters in the game? I’ll tell you this much, even if he misses the first couple weeks, if I could have one two-bagger it would be Utley. One of these years he’s going to hit 40+ HRs.

2. Dustin Pedroia – How can you not love this kid? He hits in a great line-up, he gets more out of his ability than any guy in the league, and he’s young and going to get better – he works to hard to stay the same. Utley may be at the top, but Pedroia proved that he can be magic too.

3. Ian Kinsler – If health weren’t an issue, Kinsler would rank higher than Dustin Pedroia – so let it be known, the upside of Kinsler trumps that of DP, but if upside was the judge of Pedroia the kid would have never made it to the big leagues in the first place. Regardless, Kinsler is a great option on draft day, a kid that can truly do it all.

4. Brian Roberts – Roberts is one of the top tier guys. He’s 4th, but he’s better than everyone else and there’s a chance he gets traded partway through the season to a contender – and that would almost surely mean a better hitting situation for one of the games best fantasy worthy middle infielders.

Tier 2

5. Dan Uggla – Dan Uggla is prone to ups and downs, probably more so than most 2Bs in the league, but his ups are as high as they get, and if you get him early there’s a nice chance his trade value sky-rockets and you can cash in. I like Uggla – he swings like he means it. Hence all the Ks, but still.

6. Alexei Ramirez – This guy reminds me of a young Alfonso Soriano (by the way, if this makes you feel as old as it makes me feel, Soriano is not young anymore). He can really swing the bat and his wiry frame makes all that pop seem impossible. He’s young and hitting in a good place for power.

7. Brandon Phillips – Phillips’ best years might be behind him, and 30-30 might not happen again, but that being said, he’ll probably be a good deal this year because he was hurt late last season and people often let that effect drafts. Don’t let it effect yours, he’ll produce all year for you.

8. Robinson Cano – Cano had a brutal start to the season last year, but he’s a very good player. He’s also rocking his swing in a lineup where everyone is pretty damn crafty. He’ll get lots of fast balls and there won’t be too many attempts to pitch around him. I’m guessing he has a nice bounce back year and does work for fantasy owners that take the plunge.

Tier 3

9. Jose Lopez – One of the most underrated middle infielders in the game, and it makes sense. He plays for a Seattle team that was brutal last season and he plays at 10:30 EST in more than 75% of his games. The world never sees the guy. Well, he’s good, he’s young, he hits at the top of the order in Seattle and he’s their only consistent run-producer and Ichiro is always on second when he’s up. Sounds like 80+RBI to me.

10. Howie Kendrick – This kid is legit, now if he could only stay healthy. Seeing as though he’s never had more than 400 at bats, I overlooked him a little bit, forgetting him originally on my 2B Rankings. But he’s a guy that has a little pop, can steal bases, hits for a .300+ average and will surely score runs in the Angels lineup.

11. Placido Polanco – Boring old Placido – sure, say what you want, but I’ll take him really late and watch him consistently get me points that help me win weekly. He’s not fast, he’s not powerful, he’s just always on base and right at the top of an order that is going to produce runs all year long. Don’t hesitate.

12. Kelly Johnson – Kelly Johnson didn’t impress like many thought he would. So what, it’s coming – take a chance on this guy later on draft day and it’s very possible you reap the benefits of a late round steal.

Tier 4

13. Mike Aviles – I like this guy more than most because I don’t see much not to be fond of. I would probably even reach a little bit higher on the 2B order to grab this kid because he could continue to hit .325. If he does that with 600 at bats then he’s going to hit close to 10HRs, get 70RBI, and score a bunch of runs, even in KC. In fact, with Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and a roost of young talent maturing in KC, that order might do more damage than people expect. I think they’ll be solid offensively.

14. Mark DeRosa – DeRosa is old, he really had one amazing year (last season), and he moved teams. But it’s not like Cleveland can’t hit, and he’s likely going to play every day. Not only that, but DeRosa was a mid-season pickup that helped lead me to a Championship so he has a warm fuzzy place in my heart.

Tier 5

15. Kazuo Matsui – Injury problem always, but when he’s healthy he’s a solid start.

16. Ronnie Belliard – Belliard had a decent season and he’s always had decent power numbers for a 2B.

17. Akinori Iwamura – Iwamura could continue to hit atop the Rays line-up, and in that case he’s almost guaranteed fantasy points. But I’m not too fond of the little 2B.

18. Felipe Lopez – Lopez could do good things in Arizona if he can get his health together. This guy had one amazing year that I would never expect to happen again – but he could hit .285 with double digit HRs and score runs in Arizona.

19. Freddy Sanchez – Sanchez is a good contact hitter that has months where he sees the ball very well. He will be fantasy relevant sometime this season.

20. Orlando Hudson – Hudson’s batting average has improved every single season since 2003. During that time he’s gone from .268 to .305 – if that continues then he’ll find a place even though he doesn’t do much else besides get on base and score runs. In a deep league he could be worth starting, especially one that has a middle infield slot.

21. Mark Ellis – Remember in 2007 when Ellis hit .276 with 19HRs, 76RBI, and 9SB? Me too. That’s why he’s on here. If he does that again he deserves a higher spot. Obviously I wonder if he can. One good thing, despite injuries last season Ellis stole 14 bases in only 440 at bats. Upside late in the draft, that’s a good thing.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Tiered Catcher Rankings

Posted on by

Catcher is a little bit easier, everyone knows where the good gets are, and after that it’s basically a crap shoot. Well not completely up for grabs, but there are plenty of guys that produced above what they were expected to, below what they were expected to, got hurt, or are stuck in the minors – so many options, but this is a top heavy and very shallow depth position. One of my readers sent me an email asking, “Can I write your catcher’s rankings for you? Mauer, McCann, Martin, who gives a hump.” Good old Red Red Ryan’s list might not be as detailed of mine, but he gets the idea. Still, there’s more than just nobody’s after the top 3 – there’s always a good deal somewhere! I only see 3 tiers at this position though, tier 1, tier 2, and the rest.

Tier 1

1. Brian McCann – This guy is a stud. He hits like everyone thought Billy Buttler would hit in KC. Well he’s doing it, and he’s doing it from the catcher position with a little more power and he’s young and healthy. That moves him just a smidget over Joe Mauer in my rankings.

2. Joe Mauer – Joe is an amazing hitter. He had 34 more walks than strikeouts, his average is always good, and he never hurts you anywhere. He won’t hit for power, but he’s a great point option and one of the best catchers in the game. And like McCann, he’s still young.

3. Russell Martin – Russell is arguably the best roto catcher because he gives you SBs and everything else. He’s not extremely powerful but looks like a .280+ hitter with 15-20 dinger upside and is in a nice lineup that is maturing before our very eyes. I would pick him 3rd, but he’s in the first tier. Like the two above, he’s also in his mid 20s, 25 in fact.

Tier 2

4. Geovany Soto – This National League Rookie of the Year slowed down toward the end of the season, but he’s got nice power and sits in a pretty packed Cubs lineup. He strikes out a ton, which hurts him in points based leagues like this one, but he’s one of the few catchers I’d waste a decent draft pick on.

5. Victor Martinez – Last year was one of injuries and Victor’s stats show that. If he gets back to his old self, he’s a steal as the 5th catcher off the board, but I don’t think you can safely draft Martinez as the hitter he once was. He’s a risk, but maybe worth it at this point in the draft.

Tier 3

6. Ryan Doumit – I rate Doumit a lot higher than most, but i like what his little stats tell me about his big stats. The job is his and his alone in Pittsburgh, and while that lineup won’t scare anyone, he’ll be a producer in the middle of it.

7. Bengie Molina – Bengie doesn’t get enough credit for what he’s done. He’s very consistent, and I believe he’s staying in the meat of the Giants’ order, a place that he made a living at last season.

8. Jorge Posada – Posada could also be a steal, but he’s a risk. There’s already a little question if he’ll be back by the beginning of the season, but he might be worth the risk. He’s still a good hitter, and that NY lineup is going to produce runs like it’s Daddy Day Care on bean burrito day.

9. Chris Iannetta – Iannetta is another guy getting little love for his impressive numbers last year. In just 333 at bats Chris bashed 18HRs with 65RBI – he’ll get more at bats this season, and his numbers will stay strong in Colorado.

10. Matt Wieters – Apparently this kid can hit a little bit. His minor league numbers insist on super potential from this young slugger, and at the catcher position that is rare. I might reach a little higher for him considering that if he does stay in AAA, the worst you could do is add one of the other 4th tier guys, there should be guys that end up being Top 10 fantasy catchers left out of drafts everywhere.

11. Kurt Suzuki – There’s something to be said about a catcher that plays every single day, Kurt is just about as close to that as they come, and his stats won’t hurt you. Thank alone makes him a decent option.

12. Ramon Hernandez – Hernandez moves to Cincinnati where homeruns leave ball parks in a hurry. Hernandez isn’t a great option, but nobody is after the first few guys, and there’s chance for improved numbers in ’09.

13. Mike Napoli – Upside galore with real-side health issues. Napoli crushed 20 dingers in 227 at bats last season. If he could stay healthy, he could hit 30.

14. John Baker – Baker is a nice young prospect in Florida that is probably worth more than the 14th pick. I’m just not 100% sold on him where I know most of the guys above will give me numbers.

15. Jeff Clement – Clement didn’t have great numbers in his first season of Major League action, but in the 100 or so at bats prior to his injury it looked like things kind of clicked for him. As a possible DH and Catcher  in Seattle, he’ll get a good amount of at bats to prove himself.

16. A.J. Pierzynski – A.J. may be getting old, but he’s going to hit around .280 and they can score some runs in Chicago.

17. Yadier Molina – Yadier is just one of the Molina brothers. He’s still very young and his power could slightly improve, but he’s going to be more of an average hitter than power, and you’ll be lucky to get 12 HRs out of him.

18. Kelly Shoppach – I like Shoppach as a nice sleeper, especially if Cleveland uses Martinez at DH and 1B most of the time. Shoppach definitely proved that he could hit at a major league level last season.

19. Gerald Laird – I think this is the year that all the Detroit hitter hype comes true, and it looks like Gerald will be the guy manning catcher most every day in Michigan. Laird could be an absolute steal on draft day.

20. Taylor Teagarden – Salty (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) gets more love than Taylor, but I have a feeling the job could be Teagarden’s if the Rangers get their way and find a trade partner to take Salty. Even if that doesn’t happen, this kid can actually catch – and he has nice hitting upside too.

Alex Rodriguez

Posted on by

This could be even more ridiculous. (A-Rod Story) So basically, if A-Rod didn’t admit anything than he would go absolutely unpunished because he couldn’t be charged because the tests were not to be read. And I’d like to punch Bud Selig in the face for saying that he is “heartsick over the news” as if he didn’t freaking know the results of the damn tests. He’s the idiot that should be punished. A-Rod did what tons of other baseball players did – was he wrong? – sure, morally he was wrong. But baseball needs to stop blaming the players for finding ways to work around the system and start blaming themselves for the stupid ass system. It’s not the “illegal” players and the “tarnished numbers” that are making me sick, it’s the idiots running the different shows everywhere.

Michael Phelps

Posted on by

He smoked pot at a college party – for the love of all that is wrong with the world, stop being a bunch of idiots (yeah you, the man). Why do law enforcement officials love to make examples of big time professionals these days? This is the dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Throw the book at a guy who smoked marijuana. He didn’t sell it or grow it or lace it with cop-poop. I hate. This is the most absurd “big story” in recent sports history, and it sickens me that I stumble upon “new information” every damn day. I mean, read this, how stupid does it get?

Recent Phelps Story

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Tiered 1B/3B Rankings

Posted on by

This is similar to my outfield rankings, but hopefully in less words (that’s the dream, for time and typing purposes), but we’ll see. I’m linking 1st and 3rd basemen in one group, but will happily rank them separately at the bottom for those that aren’t interested in them being ranked together. Personally, I used to think that 3rd Basemen held more value than 1st Basemen, and I still do. There’s 5 good third basemen, a maybe, and an old guy named Larry that might play 130 games if you’re lucky…. After that it’s a gong-show and quite possibly the most shallow position in baseball. Anyhow, ranking them together makes one less page for me to write – so here it is – and even though I think Pujols is the better hitter, we’ll start off with A-Rod…

Tier 1

1. Alex Rodriguez – He plays 3rd Base, hits in a ridiculous Yankee lineup that lost Bobby Abreu and gained Mark Teixiera. He is not longer playing with a weight on his shoulders, and despite every stupid critic in the world, this guy has been clean for some time. He does it all and should continue.

2. Albert Pujols – Albert is magic. I am ranking him behind A-Rod strictly because of him playing third instead of first, but Albert is one of the best hitters I’ve ever seen. I would be stunned if Al didn’t get back to the 45+ HRs he hit in 2004 and 2006. This guy is a career .334 hitter and that doesn’t look to decline anytime soon. He doesn’t steal you bases but he does walk twice as much as he strikes out – that’s great in points leagues.

3. David Wright – The fact that he rolls at 3rd instead of 1st might have me picking him over Albert by draft time, but right now I’m sticking with Albert because he’s freaking magic. Still, David is a great addition to any team, and despite maybe A-Rod’s owner, you won’t get better production from 3rd base.

Tier 2

4. Miguel Cabrera – The American League is a hitters league, and fortunately it took Miguel the first half of the season to realize that. Fortunate for this year’s drafters. Many people forget that the big former Marlin is only 25 – and I think his seasonal highs are his basement coming into his second season with the Tigers. That lineup that everyone thought would score tons of runs last season, it will this season. But Miguel still has never hit more than the 37 homeruns and 127 RBI he picked up last season – so he can’t move ahead of Albert on my list.

5. Mark Teixeira – This guy is the meaning of consitency, and I only think his numbers improve in New York with that dirty lineup. Despite spending 2007 with Texas and Atlanta, Mark hit 30 HRs and batted in over 100 in 132 games. He split teams in 2008, again changing leagues, and hit 30HRs with 121 RBI. In that last 5 years he hasn’t had less than 30HRs and 100 RBI. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had the best season of his career in New York.

6. Justin Morneau – Morneau is very good on a team that is maturing offensively. Denard Span and Carlos Gomez are both a year older, and that should mean more people on base for Justin when he’s mashing.

7. Lance Berkman – Berks is 33 but he’s one of the best and most consistent hitters in baseball. I doubt he’ll start off on the same kind of fire he did in 2008, but there is no doubt that this guy is going to be a top hitter in baseball.

Tier 3

8. Evan Longoria – You’re probably taking Longoria a bit high if you do, but he’s a dandy. The kid is one of the Top 4 3rd basemen in the league and he’s very young.

9. Aramis Ramirez – Aramis Ramirez can easily be argued to be the 3rd best 3-bagger in your draft. Longoria is a risk because of his body of work and A-Ram is about as consistent as hitters get in a very good lineup in Chicago. Hurt for parts of ’08, his value might be just right for you on draft day.

10. Ryan Howard – This is one format where Ks really can hurt you. Howard had -196 points last season, that’s freaking amazing. Because of that, and the reality that his Ks have only grown from 180-199-199 in his first 3 seasons, he doesn’t make pound the value-meter very high in formats such as the one listed. Still, if you are in a roto league, or one that doesn’t dog Ks, this guy should move up a bit because he hammers balls and drives in runs like it’s his job – because it is.

11. Prince Fielder – Prince has lots of upside, strikes out a lot, but can still crush. He had a great 2nd half of the season in ’08 and I expect him to be back to his powerful self in 2009. I think he’s a nice value pick.

Tier 4

12. Arian Gonzalez – Adrian Gonzalez had his best power season of his career. But he plays for San Diego, and many insist he’ll drop back a little in HRs. Still, he’s a solid 1-bagger.

Tier 5

13. Kevin Youkilis – Last season was by far Kevin’s best season ever. A lot of his numbers insist he’ll drop off a bit from that, but he’ll always be a run producer in Boston.

14. Joey Votto – I like this kid a lot. He might not have as many studs around him as he did last year, but the guys that are hitting around him might be on base more and strikeout less. That’s good for a couple reasons. His potential has yet to be reached.

15. Derek Lee –  Lee is in a great offense and can put up really great numbers. He’s also been streaky with power numbers, but he’ll always drive in runs hitting where he does in Chicago.

16. Aubrey Huff – Which Aubrey will you get? The hype that used to be Huff and was last year too, or the guy that played all those mediocre seasons in-between?

17. Chipper Jones – Oh Larry. Chipper hit .360 last season, spending a big portion of the season at .400 or better. Chipper can swing a bat despite being oft injured and even in 130 games he could get you right into the playoffs with his solid offensive totals.

18. Carlos Pena – Carlos isn’t a good average hitter but he’s much better than he started out the 2008 season. Carlos has 40 dinger power and he’s relatively cheap.

Tier 6

19. Chris Davis – This may be all hype, but a 3B eligible young slugger with upside goes a long way in fantasy drafts, I would reach a little for him just in case.

20. Garret Atkins – I’m not too fond of Garret but he puts up pretty consistent numbers and is definitely a fantasy force. However, that offense isn’t as powerful as it once was.

21. Carlos Delgado – Many thought Carlos was done, but here he is, making his presence felt on my list – and he deserves it, at least for one more season.

22. Adrian Beltre – Beltre was hurt last year and still managed to get his Mariner averages in most areas. He’s a consistent guy, never the guy that will hit like he did in LA his last season, but then again, you don’t have to draft him with those hopes in mind.

Tier 7

23. Mark Derosa – He should have playability or position eligibility at 2B, 3B, and OF – which makes him even a little more valuable probably – but DeRosa was impressive last season.

24. Alex Gordon – Lots of tools. Alex hasn’t lived up to the hype, but sometimes it takes a guy one more year – could be his year.

25. Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman has shown flashes, and his offense is getting better in Washington.

26. Chone Figgins – They say Figgins will never hit .330 again – probably not, but he might play 150 games and if he does that he’s a good deal.

27. Jed Lowrie (playing SS but has 3B eligibility) – Jed looks like he’s going to get everyday at bats and that might make him a nice sleeper.

1st Baseman Rankings

Tier 1

1. Albert Pujols

Tier 2

2. Miguel Cabrera

3. Mark Teixeira

4. Justin Morneau

5. Lance Berkman

Tier 3

6. Ryan Howard

7. Prince Fielder

Tier 4

8. Arian Gonzalez

9. Kevin Youkilis

Tier 5

10. Joey Votto

11. Derek Lee

12. Aubrey Huff

13. Carlos Pena

Tier 6

14. Chris Davis

15. Carlos Delgado

3rd Baseman Rankings

Tier 1

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Wright

Tier 2

3. Evan Longoria

4. Aramis Ramirez

Tier 3

5. Kevin Youkilis

6. Aubrey Huff

7. Chipper Jones

Tier 4

8. Chris Davis

9. Garrett Atkins

10. Adrian Beltre

Tier 5

11. Mark Derosa

12. Alex Gordon

13. Ryan Zimmerman

14. Chone Figgins

15. Jed Lowrie

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Tiered Outfielder Rankings

Posted on by

Obviously Fantasy Baseball doesn’t get as much love from my site as Fantasy Football, but Football is over for a while, and Fantasy Baseball drafts have already begun. If you need a little help with your positional rankings for “points” leagues, this is the place to go. Rotisserie leagues are different, so don’t get them confused. Here are rankings for leagues that reward points for total bases (1 per base) steals (1) RBI (1) BB (1) Runs (1) Strike Outs (-1)… I’m putting them in Tiers, because that’s the only way rankings should be organized – hope you enjoy!

Outfield is not a position crowded with top heavy performers – at least not last season. Of the Top 10 only Carlos Beltran and Manny Ramirez make the list. Not even 100 points separate 2nd and 21st on the list of outfielders, and there are tons of young guys that could make a splash. Think of last years top 20, you’ll find guys like Josh Hamilton, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Raul Ibanez, Ryan Ludwick, Brian Giles, Shane Victorino and more in this season’s top 25… These are names that nobody thought would enter the fray, or nobody picked like a Top 25 fantasy outfielder – and there will be more this year. My point is this, if you are drafting early, I would save my money or 1st round draft picks for non-outfielders. Overspending for a position of strength is silly, especially with guys like Andre Eithier, Xavier Nady, Brad Hawpe, and Milton Bradley will fly way under the radar, and guys like Carlos Lee, Soriano, and Vernon Wells will have lost value because of injury filled seasons – that’s not even mentioning youngsters like Carlos Gomez, Cameron Maybin, Nelson Cruz and Denard Span. The outfield spot isn’t stuffed with top producers, but it does have a flurry of startable players – that screams quarterback, and that means don’t ever reach. That being said, I would love some of these top stars, I’m just willing to let them fall to me.

There’s a little exert about each player in my Top 3 Tiers – I have also listed a fantasy upside and downside for each player in my Top 5 Tiers – they correlate with the upside and downside that I think each player could accumulate this coming season, barring injury.

Here’s my Top 30….

Tier 1

1. Josh Hamilton – I may be the only one with Josh Hamilton as my top rated fantasy outfielder, but that’s a limb I don’t mind climbing out on – hell, I’ll jump up and down on that sucker and see how it holds. In his first full season in the Majors, all Josh did was club 32HRs with 130RBI while batting .300+ – But even more amazing, I watched this guy swing the bat. Yes folks, it’s not all about numbers, and I’m willing to say that there are very few players with the power upside of Hamilton – he can make a wood bat crack with the best of them. I think he’ll hit more HRs, have more RBIs, and strikeout less in 2009 – that gets him to the top spot in my points league. What people don’t realize about Hamilton is his athleticism is off the charts – he’s faster and more agile than most anyone knows, and his numbers will prove it this season. (Fantasy Upside: Not reached yet, but…  .315, 45HRs, 145RBI, 15SB – Downside – .290, 30HRs, 120RBI, 5SB)

2. Grady Sizemore – I have a lot of love for Grady’s game because he does it all. Also, I tackled this guy a couple times in high school, so there’s that personal connection that moves him that much further up my list. Grady is only 26 and garnered career highs in HRs and RBI last season with 33 and 90 respectively. As a leadoff hitter, those 91 RBI are impressive. He managed his worst batting average of his career, but that’s one of the most ridiculous stats in baseball. That will go up this season and I’m predicting his big numbers stay about the same – his power stroke is magic. This super-athlete could hit 40-40 before his career is over. (Fantasy Upside: .300, 35HRs, 100RBI, 40SB – .268, 28HRs, 78RBI, 30SB)

3. Carlos Beltran – How ESPN rates Beltran as the 11th best outfielder last season is beyond me. He’s magic in rotisserie, as he does it all, and he finished atop the OF list in points leagues be a pretty nice margin. He had his lowest HR output in the last 3 seasons, managing only 27 long balls, but he also had his highest batting average, played his most complete season since 2002, and did everything for the Mets. Carlos might not be the 40-40 guy many hoped he’d be, at 31 he may have reached his high point, but this guy is always good, and always better going down the stretch. Also, his Ks and BBs are very similar, so he won’t lose you points there.  (Fantasy Upside: .285, 33HRs, 116RBI, 25SB – Downside: .274, 27HRs, 110RBI, 20SB)

4. Carlos Lee – This is a guy that always puts in work. He was touted as the only sure thing .300-30HR-100RBI outfielder headed into 2008, and despite missing 40+ games Lee finished only 2HRs short of that mark. Amazing. He’s not the flashy stud athletic outfielder that people seem to hop on bandwagons to top picks, but he’s going to get his making him probably the safest pick in Fantasy Baseball. (Fantasy Upside: .320, 32HRs, 120RBI, 10SB – Downside: .285 30HRs, 100RBI, 6SB)

5. Ryan Braun – Braun, one of the most impressive young stars in the game, hasn’t gotten close to his full potential. While getting a40 more at bats in 2008 than he did in his rookie season of 2007, Braun just barely eclipsed his rookie of the year totals in HRs and RBI – going from 34 and 97 to 37 and 106. I have reason to believe that his 3rd season in the big show will be his most impressive. The more comfortable he gets the better his numbers will project. If he can shrink his strikeout numbers he’ll really be something special. (Fantasy Upside: .325, 42HRs, 120RBI, 15SB – Downside: .285, 35HR, 105RBI, 14SB)

6. Manny Ramirez – Manny is arguably the most talented hitter in baseball. His numbers after Boston, and especially those in the playoffs – were amazing. In 53 games with the Dodgers, Manny hit .396 and mashed 17HRs while batting in 53… Those are freakish numbers. This is also a guy that can hit anything, drove in 100 plus RBI in 12 of his last 14 seasons, and spends lots of time working on his craft. But there’s contract stuff, there’s Manny being Manny, and that makes him the closest thing to Terrell Owens that fantasy baseball has. All that being said, I’d love this guy on my team, and chances are he’ll mash pitches throughout 2009. He’s also the closest thing to Barry Bonds that today’s baseball has. He could also not sign a contract and disappear to Planet Man-Ram – or sign a contract that he’s not happy with and play with poo-face all season long. Lots of questions move him farther down that his numbers suggest. (Fantasy Upside: .340, 45HRs, 140RBI, 3SB- Downside .296, 35HRs, 110RBI, 0SB)

Tier 2

7. Matt Holliday – I don’t know what to expect from Holliday. The guy has a sweet right handed swing, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him do just fine in Oakland. However, baseball is a numbers game, and you have to acknowledge the fact that he played in Colorado his entire career and didn’t hit nearly as well on the road. He’s now in Oakland where offensive fantasy players go to die. Since 2006 when Matt became one of the most consistent young hitters in the league, and 2007 when he turned in his second straight .326+, 34HR+, 114RBI+ season – he took a step backwards last season. He still hit .320, he struck out less and walked more, and he stole twice as many bases as any other season (28 compared to 14 back in 2005) but he hit only 25HRs with 88RBI – I expect his Oakland numbers to be more similar to that than his ’06-’07 stats. But his body of work over those previous seasons is impressive and he can be drafted that way. (Fantasy Upside: .340, 36HRs, 130RBI, 28SB – Downside: .320, 25HRs, 90RBI, 10SB)

8. Nick Markakis – Stud. He is protecting a poor lineup, but this kid is a 180 peice tool box. He’s just 25 years old, and his power numbers should improve. His power was down a bit in 2008, but his walks were way up, his average was a little better, and he hit more doubles in less at bats. He only had 10 SB, which might get people off the idea that he’s going to be a 30-20 guy, but he doesn’t hurt you anywhere and helps in all areas. If his lineup improves, he’ll get even better. (Fantasy Upside: .315, 28HRs, 115 RBIs, 18SB – Downside: .300, 20HRs, 87RBI, 10SB)

9. Carlos Quentin – He has one hell of a 3/4 season last year – no doubt about that. Had he continued instead of sustaining an injury he was probably in line to become the AL MVP. Still that was just one season. In 480 at bats Carlos mashed 36HRs with 100RBi and a .288 average. He’s only 26, but neither of his previous major league stints projected him anywhere close to those numbers – so, you’re definitely taking a chance on a guy that could mash once again or go back to his 20HR upside… I tend to think he’ll continue to hit nice power numbers, but projected totals of 44+ seem a little high. (Fantasy Upside: .288, 44HRs, 125RBIs, 9SB – Downside: .250, 18HRs, 70RBI, 3SB)

10. Nate McLouth – What a year for this Pirate. Nate started off as hot as anyone, and despite a mid-season post all-star break slump, he managed a .276 average with 26HRs and 94RBIs. Better yet, he seemed to get better after struggling mid-season. When teams started understanding that he had more than expected, they pitched him different, not giving him as many pitches to hit. McLouth struggled with that for a while, but started taking what people gave him toward the end of the season, giving me hope for a repeat performance in 2009. But only time will tell. He’s a risky early pick, but could have some nice value in drafts. (Fantasy Upside: .285, 28HRs, 100RBI, 25SB – Downside: .266, 19HRs, 78RBI, 20SB)

11. Jason Bay – Jason will be undervalued. He’s perfect for Boston’s Green Monster and was a very consistent force for the Red Sox. He struggled for a year and a half in Pittsburgh, but injuries had something to do with that, and he looks like the Jason Bay that was a first round pick as a Pirate slugger headed into 2007 before he hit .247 in his worst season as a major leaguer. But he fought back last season and managed 31HRs, and a .286 batting average in 155 games between Boston and Pittsburgh. All his numbers improved while in Boston, except maybe HRs which basically stayed the same. But he is part of quite a lineup for the Sox, and I expect another nice year from Jason. (Fantasy Upside: .299, 35HRs, 120RBI, 11SB – Downside: .280, 29HRs, 100RBI, 7SB)

12. Alfonso Soriano – Soriano is a frustrating guy to own, he’s streakier than a lazy 3rd graders undies and has the upside of any young slugger in the league. I’d say that he’s best to own late, because that’s when he usually has more upside that dirty undies, but you never know with this guy. Still, he might be found at great value. He’s 1st round material that might last until round 4, and at that point even I might give him a shot. If you want to roll the dice, and I’ve been known to go straight for Yhatzees – then Soriano is your kind of guy. In just 109 games in 2008 he managed 29 bombs and 75RBI – those are good stats for a season. Still, Fons is not young anymore (33) and is probably not the guy flurting with 40-40 (or even 30-30) that he was earlier in his career. Still, his 109 game stats show what he can do if he stays healthy. Ifs and buts. Will you take that chance? (Fantasy Upside: .299, 40HRs, 104RBI, 30SB – Downside: .277, 33HRs, 75RBI, 20SB)

Tier 3

13. Raul Ibanez – Raul Ibanez could be dynamite in Philadelphia. That park launches home runs, and he’ll be protected with some big bats in that lineup. If he did what he did in Seattle last season, I’m willing to bet he’s got a chance to really impress in Philly. His upside and downside are both good. (Fantasy Upside: .295, 33HRs, 123RBI, 4SB – Downside: .285, 20HRs, 95RBI, 1SB)

14. Vladamir Guerrero – Vlad may have had a down year last season, but that down mark still consisted of a top 15 mark in fantasy points per at bat. It may be ridiculous to think this, because he’s been declining, but I expect a better season from Vlad in ’09- and for the first time he won’t be overvalued by a couple rounds. (Fantasy Upside: .329, 33HRs, 129RBI, 10SB – Downside: .303, 27HRs, 91RBI, 2SB)

15. Carl Crawford – I almost promise that Carl Crawford will be undervalued, which will be quite different from the last couple seasons – but if you watched the playoffs last season, sporting a healthy Carl Crawford, then you understand why I put him here. His upside is higher than anyone on this list – sans maybe his outfield mate.

16. B.J. Upton – Upton is a stud. He mashed in the playoffs, having one of the best post-seasons in some time. B.J. had an injury that cut into his 2008 power, but I think his career numbers will be closer to those in 2007 than ’08. I like his upside risk. (Fantasy Upside: Not yet reached, but… .300, 32HRs, 95RBI, 40SB – Downside: .273, 15 HRs, 75 RBI, 29 SB)

17. Johnny Damon – Johnny Damon is almost guaranteed to be undervalued headed into ’09. Right now ESPN has him ranked 20th – but he’s got a chance to be magic. That lineup and team is chalked full of talent, and Tex is likely to bat about 50 points higher than Giambi did last season, that’s going to be about 20 more runs for Damon right there. (Fantasy Upside: .316, 20HRs, 94 RBI, 31 SB – Downside: .275, 12HRs, 65 RBI, 18 SB)

18. Curtis Granderson – The Tiger power train that was supposed to arrive in ’08 will likely show up in ’09. A full season of health should keep Granderson in the Top 20. (Fantasy Upside: .302, 23HRs, 74 RBI, 26 SB – Downside: .270, 19HRs, 66 RBI, 10 SB)

19. Vernon Wells – Vernon Wells is an interesting case. The guy only had 427 at bats in ’08 (injury) and he still rocked 20 bombs with 78 RBI. In 2007 he had 16 HRs and 80 RBI in 584 at bats. ’08 suggests that you should expect more of Vernon’s 2006, 2003, and 2002 numbers – that would make him a great pick as the 19th OF taken – however, there’s always those other years…. (Fantasy Upside: .317, 33HRs, 117 RBI, 17 SB – Downside: .275, 16HRs, 72 RBI, 4 SB)

Tier 5

20. Alex Rios – The upside vs. normal production pick. Everyone sees it in Alex, will he get it? (Fantasy Upside: Not yet reached but… .305, 30HRs, 100RBI, 32 SB – Downside: .291, 15HRs, 79RBI, 15SB)

21. Magglio Ordonez – Always a chance to absolutely mash. (Fantasy Upside: .360, 35HRs, 139 RBI, 6 SB – Downside: .298, 21HRs, 103RBI, 1SB – or hurt I guess, but just twice in the last 11 seasons)

22. Ichiro Suzuki – Never less than 100 runs as a MLB player.  (Fantasy Upside: .372, 13HRs, 68 RBI, 45 SB – Downside: .310, 6 HRs, 42 RBI, 33 SB)

23. Jay Bruce – In just over 400 at bats, Bruce mashed 21 HRs with 52 RBI in 2008. Will he exceed all previous numbers in a full 2009? Yeah, I think so. (Fantasy Upside: .280, 33HRs, 85RBI, 10SB – Downside: .255, 25HRs, 65RBI, 5SB)

24. Corey Hart – Hart may look like a caveman, and a very close relative to those Geico clowns, but he can do it all on the baseball field. As a 6’6″ monster Hart is a base stealer, a triple hitter, a HR guy, and has managed at least 80RBI in each of his first full seasons. He didn’t hit as well last season, but every guy has a down year, and Hart’s tools are obvious. If he can up his walks and down his Ks, by taking some time to recognize a pitch, he’s in. (Fantasy Upside: .295, 29HRs, 100RBI, 23SB – Downside: .270, 22HRs, 88RBI, 19SB)

25. Andre Eithier – This kid has one of the prettiest swings in baseball, and that has a little to do with me expecting bigger things from him. There’s not much wasted action in his bat, and he hangs in the zone like Doug and freaking Mark (Local radio show drop). If Manny comes back he’ll be even better, but even without Ram, Andre’s .305 BA, 20HRs, and 77RBI are all bench marks for the season and I expect them to be exceeded. He’s just 26 and coming in on his prime. (Fantasy Upside: .315, 27HRs, 105RBI, 6SB – Downside: .300, 20HRs, 80RBI, 2SB)

26. Ryan Ludwick – Ludwick was out of his norm last year, no doubt about that, but then again, playing consistently in the MFL is out of Ryan’s norm for his career. It was his first MLB season with more than 303 at bats. IN 2007, with just 303 at bats it’s not like he was powerless, he hit 14HRs and 52RBI with a .267 average. He’s just 30 and he has some quality hitters to bat in. He may be a one year wonder, you can never really know, but his consistency throughout last season predicts a solid ’09 campaign. (Fantasy Upside: .299, 37HRs, 115RBI, 6SB – Downside .265, 24HRs, 88RBI, 4SB)

Tier 6

20. Nelson Cruz – Love this kid.

21. Matt Kemp – Great upside, lots of strikeouts.

22. Adam Dunn – Low average, high strikeouts, monster power.

23. Justin Upton – Amazing talent.

24. Chris Young – See above.

25. Shane Victorino – Consistent player will score lots in Philly.

25. Xavier Nady – If he stays in New York and plays daily, he’ll be a freaking steal.

26. Cameron Maybin – Will be overhyped a bit, doubt he’ll bat .500 in 2009.

27. Jacoby Ellsbury – Also a bit overhyped, struggled in the 2nd half, but great tools in a good lineup.

28. Jeff Francoeur – I’m thinking Jeff is still the guy we thought he was.

29. Pat Burrell – Power is there, but for how much longer?

30. Denard Span – This kid was great in ’08.

LJ and LT – Comparing Greatness

Posted on by

LJ and LT – Comparing Greatness

Pick of the Day – Devil Rays @ Red Sox

Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Boston Red Sox

Devil rays (+131)

Tuesday, August 14th – 7:05 PM ET

The Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, hoping to keep their lead over the Yankees in the American League East. Tampa Bay looks to take a team full of young talent and show the Red Sox that the curse is back.

Bottom Line: The Rays are going to pull this off for a couple reasons; 1. Scott Kazmir is a fireballer who will make the most of his chance to pitch against the league’s best, and 2. Boston just loves to lose their lead over the last month or two of the season. The Yankees are looking for their chance to shine, and Boston is only offering sunscreen. They get a tough match-up today, as Jon Lester (who came out hot in his first start back from fighting cancer) starts for the 3rd time this season. In his 2nd game, Lester came back down, allowing a load of runs, as the Red Sox lost. He didn’t tear it up in the Minors, where a few of the Rays have played earlier this year, so they should be ready for his stuff. Take the underdog here, and the +131 payout.

LJ and LT – Comparing Greatness: I’m taking a look at the guy who had the greatest season ever LaDainian Tomlinson and the guy who doesn’t get enough credit for the work he does, Larry Johnson. Both are AMAZING runners, and could eventually go down as Top 10 running backs of all time, but LJ needs more love. These guys go 1-2 in my Fantasy Rankings because they have more talent than any two offensive players in the league. And while LJ has to deal with a poor offensive line, signing a new contract, a 1st year starter at QB, and a GM who wants nothing more than to underpay his star back – he’s still a fantasy hero. To better show the similarities between these two backs, I’m going to compare the 2nd half of LT’s record breaking, best fantasy football season ever – and LJ’s performance when he won the starting job after Priest Holmes’ injury in 2005. I figure its the best comparison, because LJ’s line was good and healthy, just like LT’s last season. The numbers may surprise you, LJ gets very close to LTs record output. The last 9 games of the 2005 season, where LJ started for the first time in his career, he posted; 1,352 rushing yards, 276 receiving yards, and 17 TDs. During LT’s last 9 games (not counting the last game where he barely played) he posted; 1,276 rushing yards, 248 receiving yards, and 23 TDs. If you break that down into fantasy points, LJ finishes with 25 less fantasy points than LT – the guy who had the best fantasy season ever. It’s close. LJ is one hell of a player, in my opinion, as good as anyone, but LT gets fantasy god status here. I have to give him his credit – busting out 23 TDs over 8 games is insane. Thank you for pushing me into the playoffs in 2006!

NBA Finals

Posted on by

Pick of the Day – Cavaliers @ Spurs

Cavs (+8)

Thursday, June 7th – 9:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers @ San Antonio Suprs;The Spurs have been a consistent force in the NBA univers over the past 10 years, and thus they are the favorite to take out Daniel Gibsonand the Cavaliers. However, Dan’s Cavs have this guy named L. James. This young no-name small forward might leave his mark on a game or two.

Bottom Line:This series may go the way of the Spur, but surely LaBron James might find a way to keep things closer than expected in the NBA Finals. In Game 1, youth will have its effect on the game, in one way or another. I like youth to keep things close, as nearly every single one of the Cavs’ playoff games have been. Take all those points, and the Cavs.

Lucky’s Overall Record: 20-9-1

Spurs in 5 I think every game will be close, and while I hope I’m amazingly wrong, I have to take Timmy Duncan’s group of Spurs to oust the Cavs in 5 little games. They’ve got all the veteran leadership to succeed in the face of any adversity. They have 3 players the Cavs can’t stop; Timmy, Manu Ginobli, and Tony Parker. The Cavs have one of those players. But both teams are defensive in nature, and the games will be close, so anything can happen. Unfortunately, the Cavs don’t have the luck of the Tim, and they’re not as good as the Spurs. These two things, plus the fact that Robert Horry has obviously already sold his soul to the devil, makes this championship all but San Antone’s for better or worse, till next year will they part. Lets hope I’m wrong. But don’t count on it.

NBA Finals

Posted on by

Pick of the Day – Cavaliers @ Spurs

Cavs (+8)

Thursday, June 7th – 9:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers @ San Antonio Suprs;The Spurs have been a consistent force in the NBA univers over the past 10 years, and thus they are the favorite to take out Daniel Gibsonand the Cavaliers. However, Dan’s Cavs have this guy named L. James. This young no-name small forward might leave his mark on a game or two.

Bottom Line:This series may go the way of the Spur, but surely LaBron James might find a way to keep things closer than expected in the NBA Finals. In Game 1, youth will have its effect on the game, in one way or another. I like youth to keep things close, as nearly every single one of the Cavs’ playoff games have been. Take all those points, and the Cavs.

Lucky’s Overall Record: 20-9-1

Spurs in 5; I think every game will be close, and while I hope I’m amazingly wrong, I have to take Timmy Duncan’s group of Spurs to oust the Cavs in 5 little games. They’ve got all the veteran leadership to succeed in the face of any adversity. They have 3 players the Cavs can’t stop; Timmy, Manu Ginobli, and Tony Parker. The Cavs have one of those players. But both teams are defensive in nature, and the games will be close, so anything can happen. Unfortunately, the Cavs don’t have the luck of the Tim, and they’re not as good as the Spurs. These two things, plus the fact that Robert Horry has obviously already sold his soul to the devil, makes this championship all but San Antone’s for better or worse, till next year will they part. Lets hope I’m wrong. But don’t count on it.

Karma's a Bitch

Posted on by

Karma’s a Bitch!

Pick of the Day – Suns @ Spurs

Suns (+3)

Friday, May 18th – 9:35 PM ET

Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs;Take the Suns in this one, I don’t care how good the Spurs are at closing a series out, the Karma Gods are about to smack the Spurs in the face. Quote me here, the Suns win by at least 10, but take the extra points, and get an easy win.

Bottom Line:I don’t see anything changing the outcome of this one, not even a big shot Rob 3, as seems to be the lucky case for Spurs fans year after year. Amare’s about to go off, and Steve has the world set to see him pull a 20-20 points and assists. Take Friday’s easy bet.

Lucky’s Overall Record: 20-9-1