Category Archives: NCAA Pick Reviews

Free NCAA football pick reviews by luclylester.com. Each week during the college football season Lucky Lester makes predictions on the outcome of selected matchups and this is the free pick review category.

NCAA Free Picks Review: Week 5

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BIG WINNER!!! Finally, a nice week in the college football ranks. Some big wins by some big teams, and I reaped some of the benefits. I tore it up during the week, going 3 for 3 on back to back to back Wednesday, Thursday, Friday games – and then the weekend. Here’s how the cookie crumbled. My baker’s dozen turned into 10 wins; 10-3 gets me right back in the game!!!

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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Lousiana Tech Bulldogs (-3.5): (WINNER) On the road for the Warriors isn’t that bad this week as they haven’t played since the 19th. However, I’m still on Tech here. They’ve played pretty well against equal competition, which I think the Rainbows are. Giving up a little over a field goal at home on Wednesday Night seems like a good value pick to me. The favored team has won this battle in all but one occasion in 7 meetings since 2000. The home team has covered in 6 of the last 7.

Colorado Buffaloes (+17) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: (WINNER) Luck. Then some terrible un-luck. And what do you know, some really good luck with two seconds left the Buffaloes throw a hurry-up touchdown in the corner of the end-zone for the cover. There it is. Sometimes you need some luck to counteract the un-luck.

Pittsburgh Panthers (-6.5) @ Louisville Cardinals: (WINNER)  The Panthers finally got over the Louisville hump last season when they rocked the Cardinals 41-7. That marked the first time in the last 20 years (8 total meetings) that Pitt won this match-up. I think they make it a steak against a Louisville team that just doesn’t do the program much justice. Pittsburgh can really run the ball, and they’re making fewer mistakes than in recent years. That helps in a short week.

Michigan Wolverines (pk) @ Michigan State Spartans: (LOSS) What do you know, the Spartans were sick of all that “little brother” talk, and they came out to dice up the Wolverines. But Michigan fought and battled and took this to overtime. A stupid, stupid interception put the Spartans in a good place to win OT with a field goal (which would have meant a push for many of the Wolvering bettors that got on later in the week), but a broken tackle or two meant a TD win for the Spartans. My first loss.

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Florida State Seminoles (-4.5) @ Boston College Eagles: (LOSS)  I expected FSU to come out to win after playing like dump in Week 4. But they just kept the poo-cycle on full blast, and let the Eagles win by a touchdown.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) @ Kentucky Wildcats: (WINNER) I barely covered this game. The Tide won by 18. However, the Tide crushed the Cats. They were up 31-6 and then 38-13, but Kentucky really wanted to cover, so they gave it their all. Lucky for me, I had that one point.

LSU Tigers (-2.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs: (WINNER) I’m still not sure LSU belongs in the Top 5, but they earned it this week, and they’ll spend at least one more week in that group. This was quite a battle, down to the wire, but LSU had just enough to make me, and them, a couple winners.

Washington Huskies (+17) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish: (WINNER) “I think they have a good chance to not only cover, but pull the upset, so I’ll take all those points.” The Huskies got proper screwed, like the hare. Now, any team that gets inside the 1 twice and comes away with just three points probably doesn’t deserve to win, but the Huskies got a TD taken away that never went back on the board. They also watched as ND failed a 2-pt conversion only get two points anyway. The Huskies went all the way to OT with the Irish, but couldn’t get the right bounces. Easy cover for me though.

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Oklahoma Sooners @ Miami Hurricanes (+7): (WINNER)  “I think Miami has the kids to play with a team like Oklahoma. They are playing at home, in front of a crowd that will be nuts, getting hyped for a huge chance to prove themselves once again after they really tumbled in last week’s game against Virginia Tech. A little slap in the face to show you that you may not be everything you think you are usually does a team good, and I think last week’s loss will have that effect on the Hurricanes. Since their loss to BYU, the Sooners haven’t had a tough game to show me what they are really made of, as Idaho State and Tulsa don’t really do it for me. I’ll take the home dog here,” I think the ‘Canes had a nice win here. Both teams played alright, but Miami did just enough to get the win, as Oklahoma couldn’t stop the run. Oklahoma fought back late, but fell just a little short.

Ohio State Buckeyes (-17) @ Indiana Hoosiers: (WINNER) The Buckeyes won by 19, just enough to cover up, but they hammered the Hoosiers, it wasn’t that close.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-4.5) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs: (WINNER) The bulldogs tried to make it close in the 4th quarter, but Tech QB, Josh Nesbit, was just too much of a beast. He missed on only 3 of his 14 attempts, putting up 266 yards and a touchdown on just 11 completions. He also didn’t get huge ground numbers, but his 23 rushes helped batter the Bulldogs defense.

USC Trojans @ California Golden Bears (+6): (LOSS) “Apparently it’s hard to win against a physical team when you’re looking forward to next week’s huge battle. Fortunately for the Bears, the battle this weekend had some pressure relieved when they got trounced by the Ducks.” Apparently I was wrong, and apparently it wasn’t a freak occurrence, the Bears getting trounced by the Ducks, because I have a feeling the Bears just aren’t nearly as good as anybody thought. I don’t get how Mr. Best can continually get shut down by ranked teams, yet another time he does nothing against USC…

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Washington State Cougars @ Oregon Ducks (-31): (WINNER) “Fade the Cougars… even after two big wins. I stayed away from WSU last week, as they stayed close to the Trojans, so good for me. But they are terrible, and Oregon has figured out what they’re doing. If they don’t put up 50 on the Cougars I will be surprised.” I would have been surprised, but since the Ducks slammed 52 points down WSU’s collective throat, I’ll just settle for being right… and satisfied… Fade the Cougs is back on folks!!!

NCAA Football Free Picks Review: Week 4

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5-6 yet another yawner, and I didn’t even get a push. The Husky game really surprised me in how much of a lopsided battle that was. Historical close games didn’t repeat in Week 4, as there were some big blowouts. Tim Tebow got blasted, hospitalized, and the Gators still romped over the Wildcats… Here’s how the games went…

Mississippi Rebels (-3.5) @ South Carolina Gamecocks: (LOSS) This was Thursday Night, so only crazy could happen – but still, when you consider how poorly Mississippi moved the ball on the Gamecocks, and how poor a very good quarterback played, to be a 6 point game at the end is just crazy. South Carolina came to play and dominated a pretty good offensive line. I started off with a loss.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5): (WINNER) Yet another example of what rankings mean: The Tar Heels busted into the Top 25 last week, and Georgia Tech got pushed out… Yet here they were, favored, and pummeling the Tar Heels on the ground. Accruing fewer penalties and rushing for 317 yards on the Tar Heels. Easy win for me, and the Jackets.

Indiana Hoosiers (+21) @ Michigan Wolverines: (WINNER) “Michigan’s one win over Notre Dame makes them a 21 point favorite? That’s a little much for me. They are bigger, faster, and stronger than Indiana, no doubt, but the separation between these two teams isn’t three touchdowns,” and I was right on the button there. Michigan has the athletes, but these two teams were very even, close enough for Michigan to need a score with 2 minutes left to finally pull ahead for good. The Hoosiers lost by 3, I won by 18…

Miami Hurricanes @ Virginia Tech Hokies (+2): (WINNER) “Hokies as an underdog at their own place seems like enough for them to play with a chip firmly planted on their shoulders. That should be enough to hand Miami their first loss. I almost always, always, bet on the lower ranked favored team, but nothing is always right, and I think this one goes the other way.” When the feel of the game gets you to bet against your own little kind-of-system, you just have to go and do it. Sure enough, the Hokies came out and were riled up, using that excitement to beat up on the Canes in every facet of the game. Hokies win big, Miami comes back to reality a little bit.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Clemson Tigers (-2.5): (LOSS) This was one heck of a battle, and it could have gone either way. C.J. Spiller was a beast, leading the team in rushing and receiving. What finally got the Tigers was their trouble to convert on 3rd and 4th downs. They were up heading into the 4th, but failing to get it done on three consecutive 4th downs was too much in the end, and the Horned Frogs kept their stellar season going.

Arkansas Razorbacks (+17) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: (LOSS) The Razorbacks played pretty well against Alabama’s rushing attack, holding them to 3.3 yards per carry, a pretty low number for the Tide. However, the Razorbacks shot themselves in the foot early, and after they cut it to 14-7 early in the 3rd, the Tide tossed an 80 yard touchdown pass that really broke those Razor-backs, as Bama went on to cruise.

Akron Zips (+16) @ Central Michigan Chippewas: (LOSS) “This game is actually a nice little rivalry between a couple solid small college programs. I still think these two teams always play it close, and I like that to stay the same this weekend.” What can you say, I was wrong here. This game was all Chippewas from the outset, dominating on offense and keeping the Zips from gaining any sort of yards. SOB!!!

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators (-21.5): (WINNER)  “I know, the flu is going around Florida’s squad, and things are looking slowed down a bit after Tennessee played them close, but Kentucky isn’t going to run clock, and Tim Tebow doesn’t have sickness, he’s made of antibiotics. I think Florida wins by four scores, proving a point this week after a mediocre performance against the Vols.” The Gators won easily, and Tebow may be made of antibiotics, but he’s not immune to getting concussed on a huge blind side hit, I know that for sure. Florida didn’t miss a beat when Tebow headed to the hospital, as they dominated the Wildcats to the tune of 41-7.

Boise State Broncos @ Bowling Green Falcons (+17): (LOSS) Boise State is just too good. I keep waiting for them to slow down, but their new #5 ranking shows what the polls think of them. I might have to agree, this defense is way better than I ever thought they’d be, and they are led by one hell of a quarterback talent. Moore has amazing touch. Still, I thought I was sitting pretty after the 1st quarter as the Broncos had yet to score and the game was tied at 0. Silly, me, it was 28-0 after the first half and 4 2nd quarter scores – I had lost my spread by halftime.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+10) @ Penn State Nittany Lions: (WINNER) “Iowa has taken out the Nittany Lions 6 of the last 7 meetings, that’s gone past coincidence in my book, so I have to go against my gut and hopes and heart and take Iowa.” As a Penn State fan (as much as I’m a fan of any football team), this one was tough to stomach. But I certainly got into this one in the right way, the Hawkeyes did the Lions dirty for the 7th time in the last 8 meetings.

Washington Huskies (+7) @ Stanford Cardinal: (LOSS) I still can’t believe this was a 34-14 beating. The Huskies aren’t that bad and the Cardinal aren’t that good. Maybe I just underestimated the effect Stanford’s great offensive line and running attack would have on the Huskies poor rush defense. I think that is obviously the case as Toby Gerhart ran for 200 yards and the Cardinal put up 320+ on the Huskies.

Week 3 College Football Free Pick Review

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I started out winning 4 out of 5 of my NCAA free picks and was pretty excited going into the second half. I had picked some good upsets, some favorites, and a nice dog that turned into a mighty husky. After that it was all down hill. I may be killing it in the pros, but this is my worst start in college football ever. Here’s how it went.

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Miami Hurricanes (-4.5): (WINNER) The Hurricanes were the much better team, smacking the Yellow Jackets around something fierce. Tech moved the ball better than the final score showed, but penalties kill a team that doesn’t throw the ball. They had 2nd and long lots of times.

Boston College Eagles @ Clemson Tigers (-6.5): (WINNER) I thought this one would be pretty one sided, I told you it would be, it was. Clemson is a pretty darn good team up front, I imagine they’ll keep showing up to play, and should be a nice bet moving forward, because they really get no love at all.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+15) @ Oklahoma Sooners: (LOSS) Oklahoma big brother’d the Hurricane in this one, treating them like a small college team, and using their strength to just flat out dominate from kickoff to finish. Missed this one.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+6) @ Maryland Terrapins: (WINNER) “The Blue Raiders have looked solid in their start to the season while the Terps have looked dismal. This spread should be smaller, yet 71% of the public is still riding the slow moving Terps. I think Maryland falls to the small school Blue Raiders. They just haven’t played well enough to win games, and nothing seems to be getting answered in Maryland.” I can’t say it better with 20-20 hind sight.

USC Trojans @ Washington Huskies (+20.5): (WINNER) WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER!!! The Huskies not only covered but iced the #3 Trojans to the tune of a huge 16-13 upset. Gotta love that! As big as this win was, for the Dawgs and myself, it was the last win of the week. Damn the man!

Arizona Wildcats (+5.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: (LOSS)  Arizona came to play as if they had walked to Iowa the night before the game. This one was pretty blah from the outset, I was wrong again.

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SMU Broncos (-7) @ Washington State Cougars: (LOSS) Those blasted Cougars got lucky, so much for betting against them every single game just to see what happens. I hate when my plan gets foiled.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Oregon State Beavers (EVEN): (LOSS) This was a close one, but the Beavers couldn’t do enough. Cincinnati didn’t put up big time points like they had been, but their defense was still pretty stout. They did enough to keep me losing.

Florida State Seminoles @ BYU Cougars (-7): (LOSS) Florida State showed why small programs can’t hang with the big boys on a good day. FSU came out pummeling the Cougars and never stopped. The athleticism on the away team’s sideline was too much from the get go.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (-1): (LOSS) The Bulldogs came in and winged it around. I was pretty stoked up 21-10 after the first quarter, but both teams kept firing away and I was on the wrong end of a 4th quarter that put the Bulldogs up for good.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (-7): (LOSS) UNLV won, but naturally, because this is how my college football year has gone thus far, it wasn’t by enough to get me the win. A one point win for the Rebels was good enough to assure me a 4-7 Week 3. You ought to be killing College Football if you’re fading me.

Week 2 NCAA Picks REVIEW

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Week 2 was a little more kind to me with my free college football picks, and while not the back to even come back I was looking for, some good things happened for me early in the week, bringing some wins my way. It wasn’t all gravy though. This is how the wins and losses accumulated to a flat even tie (ugh).

Clemson Tigers (+5.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: (WINNER) Some people are trying to tell me I’m lucky for covering this game… Please, Georgia Tech was lucky to score those early freak touchdowns in the first quarter or they would have had no chance to win this one. Clemson had some really bad luck early, then showed what they were made of by pretty much shutting down the Jackets over the final three quarters. A field goal ended up getting GT the win late, but it was just 3 points, and I won anyway, despite the freak touchdowns on back to back fake field goals. As my good buddy Josh said, “I’ve never seen a team score two touchdowns on back to back fake field goals, and the fact that they were on either side of the ball for each one, that’s just crazy.” Crazy indeed.

Central Michigan Chippewas (+14.5) @ Michigan State Spartans: (WINNER) “I know, I’m nuts, but I like the Chipps to get awfully close to pulling off this upset. I like a lot of what Central Michigan has. I love their QB, the kid is a winner. Central Michigan has either won, or lost by less than 14 points in 19 of their last 20 games. I know the Spartans are solid, but the only team that beat the Chipps by more than two touchdowns last season was Georgia. State isn’t that kind of good.” What can I say, I hit this one right on the chin. I still can’t believe the Chipps won the game. I must admit, I’m a victim of early evacuation in this one, I left the game after the Chipps missed on their two point conversion attempt. But some how, they pulled it off. Obviously the cover wasn’t in question, but it was nice to see Dan and his guys get a win. They didn’t just get awfully close to pulling the upset, they made it happen.

North Carolina (-4) @ Connecticut Huskies: (LOSS) Carolina couldn’t do anything offensively, which really surprises me. This game didn’t look good, but NC found a way to get the win, just not by enough to make me a winner. I’m not sure what to take from this game – I don’t think NC’s offensive attack is that poor and I don’t think UConn’s D is that good – so should I just write this off as an aberration? I’ll look into it. I know that those 12 fourth quarter points shows me a lot about a team in terms of getting a win no matter what.

Stanford Cardinal @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-3): (WINNER) “The Cardinal really struggled on the road last season, tallying their only road win at Washington (and the Huskies didn’t even win one single game). I think that trend continues. I also think the Deacons came out slow last week, and while a late push made that game a game, the couldn’t quite pull it out. One of the sharpest tossers in the game, Riley Skinner, threw three picks last week. He won’t throw one this Saturday, and that should be enough to get Wake Forrest in the win column.” The Cardinals didn’t get a road win. Skinner didn’t throw an interception. But the Deacons got off slow again, but Stanford’s road woes haunted them just enough to let Wake back in it. Down 17-3 at half time, Wake put up 21 unanswered points in the 2nd half, including two touchdowns in the 4th quarter, getting me my 3rd win in four chances.

Syracuse Orange @ Penn State Nittany Lions (-28.5): (LOSS) I don’t know what to say. It was 28-0, but Penn State didn’t score nearly as much as they should have. They gave up a late score to Syracuse, giving me no chance to cover. I should have known that 28.5 was too much. Penn State needs to get stronger running the ball or they’ll be in trouble against big teams.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3) @ Michigan Wolverines: (LOSS) This game was back and fourth, and ND easily could have been the team to pull this one out, but Michigan’s freshmen were dynamic, tough nosed, and stepped up really big to take out the Irish. I must say, I haven’t been happier about a loss in my picks. This whole “Irish undefeated” talk, or “ND to a BCS Bowl Game” jazz was making me a little sick to my stomach. Now we can let that crap die.

East Carolina Pirates (+6.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers: (LOSS) After being down just 21-20 at half time, I liked my chances with the Pirates – however, despite plenty of opportunity, they just couldn’t put up points in the second half while West Virginia’s two touchdowns were plenty to hand me my third loss in a row.

BYU Cougars (-17.5) @ Tulane Green Wave: (WINNER)  “I don’t like that over 75% of the bets are taking BYU. I don’t like that BYU pulled a huge upset over #3 Oklahoma last weekend. I don’t like a lot of things about this. But one of the most important don’t likes just happens to be how I feel about the Tulane Green Wave football team. I’m not sure if BYU will have their stud RB Unga back, but they should find running the ball a lot easier this week. They win this game by 3 touchdowns or more. That’s a cover.” 54-3… Like I said, there were lots of things I didn’t like about this game, but my feelings for Tulane trumped all that “sharp” stuff and I took the heavily favored Cougs. Good move on my part, huh? I must say, I was a little worried when BYU was up just 3-0 after 1… But I was pretty sure of the cover up 17 at half time. The Cougs are pretty solid.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-2) @ Washington State Cougars: (WINNER) “Fade east of the mountains in Washington State. What can I say, after the passion the Huskies played with last week, I can’t say, fade Washington State teams anymore, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t fade THE Washington State team.” That’s all that needs to be said, unless a really heavy line in the Cougs favor shows up, you can bet your dollar that they’ll be in my Top 10 picks section next time they play. What a brutal program right now.

Oregon State Beavers (-7) @ UNLV Running Rebels: (LOSS) Up 20-7 after three, I thought I had this one pretty well in the bag. Rodgers was running all over the Rebels, just like I expected, and the Beavers were doing just enough through the air to take advantage of all the Rebel’s attention to the run. Then all of a sudden the game had changed, and UNLV was up one. A last second field goal kept the Beavers in the win column, but that didn’t do much for me, as an Oregon State loss put me at 5-5 for Week 2. Better than last week but still not good enough. Taking the next step next week!

College Football Review: Week 1

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Three and Seven, 3 and 7, 3 for 7, 3-7…. However you say it, look at it, write it – it looks bad. But I’ve had tougher weeks and always seem to fight back. I took Week 1 on the chin, but not for a lack of effort, here’s what I missed, or what went wrong, or how I was tricked…. Hopefully I can turn the tables next week.

Oregon Ducks @ Boise State Broncos (OVER 64): LOSS – “While I like the Broncos to win, and likely cover the 4 point spread in this one, I like the OVER even more.” Lucky for me all I bet was the over. That gives me a loss. What I didn’t take into account was Oregon starting 4 new offensive linemen. That will mess up anyone’s offensive flow, even the Ducks. The Punch heard round the states put an interesting spin on this game, but the truth of the matter is the Broncos killed the Ducks. Kellen Moore was a sniper at the Q and the Ducks couldn’t find much room to run anywhere. Boise should have a scored a couple more TDs, shooting themselves in the foot more than a couple times. And the turnovers didn’t help the total – but in the end, Oregon just didn’t have enough to get even close to their side of the over.

South Carolina Gamecocks (+5) @ North Carolina State Wolfpack: WINNER – “Gamecocks will get big contributions from freshman, a better season out of the quarterback position, and an upset win at NC State this Thursday Night.” I liked my chances at an upset win, didn’t think the Wolfpack would do much against that SC defense. At least one of my picks went right, get ready for a nice little downhill slide…

Minnesota Golden Gophers (-6.5) @ Syracuse Orange: LOSS –  I thought I had this game well in hand early, the Orange were stinking and the Gophers were moving, but Greg Paulus started to remember how to play this game and the Orange put some points up, eventually sending this one into overtime. Tough deal, the Gophers couldn’t quite cover with an OT field goal to win it.

Baylor Bears @ Wake Forrest Demon Deacons (-2.5): LOSS – A really tough start put the Deacons too far behind. They fought back late but lost a close one to the Bears. I expected accuracy from Riley, he threw a couple interceptions, and missed target on a few more. I still think Wake is a decent team to take this year.

BYU Cougars @ Oklahoma Sooners (-22): LOSS – I must admit, the offensive line change killed me this week, assuming Oregon would score points, and in this game as well – but I have to think that if Sam Bradford played, went into halftime, came out with a new plan of attack, this not only wouldn’t have been a loss for the Sooners, but possibly a cover. I expected an early struggle, but once they settled down I expected the Sooners to dominate. Well, even without their stud running back, the Cougars pulled off a big one, and I was on the wrong side of it.

Virginia Tech Hokies (+6.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: LOSS – the Hokies didn’t play nearly as well as they needed to, and I still thought I was going to get a win. Offensively they couldn’t hang, but I was only down three in the 4th quarter, and a defensive stop would have given me a much better chance at a W. But ‘Bama kept pushing past the smaller VT front, and scored again, and the Hokies lost by 10. Alabama just has too many big guy7s up frong

Maryland Terrapins (+21.5) @ California Golden Bears: LOSS –  The Bears ran all over the Terps, laughing at my claim that 21 was too high… I cried about it.

LSU Tigers (-17.5) @ Washington Huskies: LOSS –  There’s lots I could say about this game, but the bottom line is Washington is not the team they used to be. Fade Washington schools might have to be changed to fade WSU….

Mississippi Rebels (-16.5) @ Memphis Tigers: WINNER –  “Anybody worth anything hammered Memphis last season. The Rebels were one of those teams.”  It took a while for them to remember they were one of those teams, but in the 4th they finally figured it out and did work, covering for me by plenty.

Miami Hurricanes (+6.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: WINNER “I think Miami’s the better team. There it is.” And I think that’s what it came down to. They had more firepower on both sides of the ball, and while it was one hell of a game, the Canes were the better team.

Better next week, that’s what I’m thinking…

Free NFL Playoff Picks: Week 1

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After a solid season that saw me finish 20+ games up, I figure I might as well give you my playoff picks as well- you know it’s been a weird season when not a single first round playoff game gives you a favored home team. Craziness!!! But I don’t see the favorites winning all four in Round 1 of the NFL Playoffs – oh no – I have two road winners and two home team victories – which is which is for you to find out… Good luck with your playoff bets!!!

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Falcons have trouble with prolific passing teams. New Orleans, Denver, and Philadelphia combined to give Atlanta each of their three losses over the last 10 games of the season. Am I saying they can’t beat a passing team? Nope – they ousted the Packers, Saints, and Chargers already this season, so they have it in them, they just have more trouble with pass happy teams. And it doesn’t seem to be the passing game that kills them, but the threat of the pass that seems to really open up the run. The Saints, and Eagles both had big time rushing days against the Falcons, but I don’t see the Cardinals doing that. Even with the awesome production of Edgerrin James last week against the Seahawks, Arizona’s run game still doesn’t scare me much. I also don’t like how the Cardinals gave up just as many points per game as they scored this season, that kind of football rarely gets you wins in January. What else has me going against the home team in this one? How about Arizona’s wins over the last 10 weeks of the regular season? Seattle twice, St. Louis twice, and San Francisco – just barely. Something about that doesn’t excite me. I know Seattle was playing better down the stretch, but the best team in that group is San Francisco, and the Niners weren’t really jelling 8 weeks ago. Atlanta has been tested, and they’ve passed. The Cardinals have to prove to me that they can beat a good team before I go putting money on them to win, even as a home dog.

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (+2): The Chargers have always been a tough match-up for the Colts, and San Diego plays well in the playoffs. I know that the Colts have a pretty tough pass defense, but with Rivers out to prove a little something, I have a feeling he has a nice day for the Chargers despite the Colts success at stopping the pass this season. I’m not sure if LT will be 100%, but then again, has he been at the top of his game yet this season? This is a tough one – there probable isn’t anyone in the league playing better than the Colts have over the past 8-9 weeks – but the Chargers have done a little turn around of their own. The Chargers always seem to play their best football against the best teams, and that has me thinking that they are built for the playoffs. They needed one hell of a run to get in, but now they are in, and that can’t be exciting for the rest of the AFC. The Chargers may have won just 8 games, and they had to take all of their final four to get to 8 – but they’ve played plenty of close games, and very well could be 11-5, or 12-4 just like the Colts. The talent is there. The last part of this that really pushes me towards San Diego – it’s hard to beat a good team twice, and it’s even harder to go on the road and beat a good team twice. If the Colts want to make it to the 2nd Round, they have to beat the Chargers in San Diego for the 2nd time this season. I’m betting that doesn’t happen.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: Can Baltimore really come in and beat the Dolphins for the second time this season? In Miami? I think so, but only because the Ravens are such a terrible match-up for the run-happy Dolphins. I know Miami has been throwing more, and successfully with Chad, but the Ravens defense doesn’t give up anything for free – and I think it stays that way. In the last 10 games, the Ravens have only lost to the Steelers and Giants. 8 wins, 2 losses, and the 2 losses were to a couple of the best teams in the league. Miami is solid, but the toughest win they’ve had in the last 10 weeks was last week against a flailing Jets club that had lost any identity they had. Both teams are solid – the Ravens are tougher – they may be a tough call as a road favorite here, but their toughness should overcome, and Joe Flacco is playing as good as he’s played all year.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5): This one is really more of a toss up to me, but I still like the Vikings side more. I know the Eagles have played pretty well in 4 of their last 5 games, but I think they’ve been inconsistent enough to be a tough bet as a 3 point favorite on the road against a physical running team. The Eagles have no run-game anyway and the Vikings have been better against the past since their tough start to the season. The Eagles play much better at home than on the road, and so do the Vikings for that matter- but this game is in Minnesota. Everyone is loving Philadelphia here, but I’m not sure I can buy it. Look at the teams Philly has lost to lately, Washington, Baltimore, Cincinnati (tie), and the Giants (Those are the Eagles last 4 losses) – all of these teams have something in common; no matter what they are going to run the ball. Not all of them were super successful running against the Eagles, but all of them ran the ball a lot. Philly has a tendency to break down a bit in games that are physical like that. After coming off that huge party-win against the Cowboys to get in, it will be interesting to see how they come out. Either way, I think +3.5 at home for the Vikes is a solid bet.

Free NCAA Picks REVIEW: Week 14

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4-5 in Week 14, and I have one more week to boost my record before the Bowl games – stay tuned. Here’s the review for Week 14. 

Washington State Cougars @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-28): (Loss) Hawaii just didn’t try to do much in the 2nd half – this game was weird. I lost, that’s one thing I know for sure. 

Notre Dame “Fighting” Irish @ USC Trojans (-30): (Winner) The Trojans were almost covering by half time. The Irish flipped in a 4th quarter field goal just to make my shut out prediction wrong. Still, I won this one and I needed it. 

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers (-3): (Loss) The Beave struggled with a chance to make the Rose Bowl – all for the better I guess, now they don’t have to get the crap kicked out of them by the Penn State Nittany Lions for the 2nd time this year. 

Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (+7.5): (loss) The Sooners won by 20 but this game was close into the 4th quarter, back and forth from 10 to 3 points, but like so many games, the last 10 minutes got me a fat loss here. 

Auburn Tigers (+14.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: (Loss) Alabama came to play, they weren’t caught with their pants down thinking about next week. In turn I took it pretty good here. 

Houston Cougars @ Rice Owls (+3): (WINNER) The Owls won outright, showing everyone else what I already knew, they were the same team as Houston, but with a strong home field advantage. 

Florida State @ Florida Gators (-16): (WINNER) This was free money. 

Kansas Jayhawks (+16) @ Missouri Tigers: (WINNER) I like when the 16 point dog I pick wins outright – that was the case here. Now if Missouri beats Oklahoma, the Sooners will look really bad. 

South Carolina Gamecocks (+1) @ Clemson Tigers: (Loss) What do you know, Steve Spurrier tricked me again. I’m pretty sure I’ve said this 3 or 4 times over he past couple years, but I am never picking for or against Steve ever again. 

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 13

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Well, 5-12 isn’t as good as 14-5, that’s for sure, but that still leaves me 2 games over .500 in the last two weeks. College football can sure have some tough bounces, no question about that. There’s only a couple more weeks left for a chance at redemption from this terrible time I had in Week 13 – we’ll see if I can’t bust it up next time around. Here’s a list of the game I played with wins or losses listed on the side. 

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Louisville Cardinals (+7): (Loss) 

Army (+19) @ Rugters: (Loss) 

North Carolina State @ North Carolina (-10.5): (Loss)

Clemson @ Virginia (+3): (Loss)

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-3): (Loss)

Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas State (-4): (WINNER)

Stanford @ California (-9): (WINNER)

Boston College @ Wake Forest (-2): (Loss)

Louisiana Tech (-6) @ New Mexico State: (Loss)

Idaho (+23.5) @ Hawaii: (Loss)

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Northwestern Wildcats (+2.5): (Winner)

Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins (-1): (Loss)

BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes (-6.5): (Winner)

Washington (-7.5) @ Washington State: (Loss)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6) @ Oklahoma Sooners: (Loss)

Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: (Winner)

Mississippi @ LSU (-5): (Loss)

NCAA Football Free Picks REVIEW: Week 12

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Nice week me… 14-5 is something to smile at – and Saturday had plenty of smiles. 

Rutgers (+8) @ South Florida: (win) I’m starting to figure the Big East out I think – whatever the consensus is, go the other way. I liked me some Rutgers in this one, and for good reason, they walked into South Florida and won outright. And talk about a beating, without any scoring in the 1st quarter, the Scarlet Knights put up 49 points on the Bulls. That’s big time. It was a sign of things to come, that’s for sure. 

Duke (+11.5) @ Clemson: (loss) Okay, I lost this one, and Duke was greatly outplayed – but their best player and team leader, quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, went down in the 2nd series of the game and Duke didn’t have a shot. In that case, neither did I. Clemson won 31-7, and I take one on the chin. 

Georgia (-8.5) @ Auburn: (loss) I should have listened to myself on this one. I knew it wasn’t a gimmie game, and I knew Georgia’s early season close wins were starting to look worse and worse, but I went with Georgia anyway, and while they did win, it wasn’t enough to get me in the W column. 

Middle Tennessee State (-2) @ Western Kentucky: (win) “But the better team is MTSU, they are good enough to be favored on the road as a 3 win team, and that tells me a lot about Western Kentucky.” Middle Tennessee ran the show in this game, never trailing for a minute and winning by 11 on the road. What can I say? It was a good week to be a me. You could almost say a Lucky day to be Lester? Whoa!!! A quick one. 

Toledo (+16) @ Western Michigan: (win) “Toledo has one good game against a decent team, and no I’m not talking about their win over Michigan – the Wolverines suck. I’m talking about a close loss at home against Central Michigan. Other than that, they’ve played terribly – especially on the road. Take away their win at Michgan and they’ve lost two straight on the road, to Norther Illinois and Akron, but 31 and 17 respectively. Western Michigan is better than that. But there’s this little thing called a let down game, and that’s what has me riding the Toledo Rockets in this one. Western Michigan sure can score the pigskin, but they allow a good amount of points as well. After upsetting Illinois (though it wasn’t much of an upset, but still a big win over a big name school) this game should be one in which they come out a little flat. I still like them to win, but Toledo at +16 will be my pick here.” I hit this game right in the nuts, you can’t argue with that. No doubt about it, Toledo is the lesser team, but Western Michigan didn’t play up to their ability. Sometimes that’s just the way the cookie crumbles. 

California @ Oregon State (-3): (win) The Beavers were better than Cal, and a late pick 6 cleared this one up perfectly. Cal couldn’t deal with constant pressure all day, and a Rodgers’ brother duo that did work from start to finish. The Beave is tough enough. 

North Carolina @ Maryland (+3): (win) “But this should be a bit of a let down week for the Heels, a win gets them a tie for first place in their division, but they are walking into Maryland. The Terps are undefeated at home and as good as NC is, they aren’t far and above better than Maryland. The Terps have crushed some dreams this season, and are trying to find the way to the top of their own half of the ACC. In College football, the home field advantage can be the answer to your betting questions – this is one of those times.” And what do you know, the Terps pull out the win at home. It was close. It was a battle. It was everything I thought it was, and at the foot of a 4th quarter field goal the Terps are still undefeated in Maryland. 

New Mexico State (+17) @ Fresno State: (win) “This seems like a good bet. Despite Fresno killing their bettors, the public still seems to love them, just waiting for them to finally win their second game against the spread. Interesting. What has Fresno done to be a 17 point favorite this season? Nothing is the answer. Take the Aggies.” There you have it. It took a late Fresno State 4th quarter touchdown to take the lead from New Mexico State, while me and that 17 point spread easily. 

Boise State @ Idaho (+36.5): (win) I said the value was with Idaho because the spread in this rivalry game had never been as big as it was this weekend. Boise State won by 35, and just by the hair on the spread’s butt crack, I won. Boise hammered Idaho in the 2nd half, but it was that early fight that got me the win. 

Oklahoma State @ Colorado (+18): (win) I said this spread was a touchdown bigger than it should be. I was right. The OK State Cowboys won by 13, but that was still enough for me to cover. Yhatzee! 

Troy State (+16.5) @ LSU: (win) This was a weird one. You can see why I wanted to leave it alone. The first 3 quarters were why I took Troy State, and the last quarter, the one where LSU did anything they wanted to do and fought back after being down by a seemingly insurmountable spread, and won – that’s why I didn’t want to bet on this game. That being said, I had the right side, as surprising as that was – it was Troy State’s side. 

Boston College @ Florida State (-6): (loss) The Seminoles fought back late, but BC was too tough defensively – mainly on their defensive front. FSU was hurried all day long and the Eagles won by a touchdown. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (-9.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini: (win) I thought Juice’s touchdown pass with 50 seconds left in the game was going to get me, but then I remembered my line was 9.5 not 10.5 – close one. Ohio State won this game much bigger than the score showed. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: (win) The Cornhuskers trounced the WIldcats, making me look like a smart little sports writing college picks advisor. Wahoo! 

Washington State Cougars (+36.5) @ Arizona State Wildcats: (win) As I said, it came down to wondering if the Wildcats could score enough points. A team that hasn’t scored 42 all season long shouldn’t be favored by 36.5 – Now 31? Sure… Haha… The Cougars tried to get me a loss, but they managed to hold the Wildcats out of the end zone one last time. 

Arizona Wildcats (+4) @ Oregon Ducks: (loss) The Ducks killed the Cats early, it was 44-17 at half time. But the Wildcats fought back and it took a late touchdown run by LeGarrette Blount that actually covered the spread for Ducks bettors. Arizona scored 28 straight points to pull within three and pull a sure loss into a cover win, but that late score did bettors justice and I lose. 

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Houston Cougars (+4.5): (win) These teams weren’t quite as equal as I thought, either that or Houston just had the right bounces because the Cougars did work, basically doubling up Tulsa and scoring 70 points on the Hurricane. 

San Jose State Spartans (+15.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack: (loss) It was 31-17 going into the 4th quarter, but the Spartans were shutout in the final frame as they allowed 10 – that got me another loss on this college Saturday. 

UCLA Bruins (-7) @ Washington Huskies: (win) The Huskies play calling is brutal. They are not good personnel-wise. There was absolutely no reason this game should have had this close of a spread. Free money indeed.

NCAA Football Free Picks REVIEW: Week 11

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Okay, I ended the week at .500 – that’s a push. Yahoo. That being realized, I’m not going into much detail with my review, feel free to write in and ask for more if that’s what you guys want, I didn’t think you’d mind. Here’s where I won and loss, fought and scratched, gave it my all to end even. Ugh.  

TCU Horned Frogs (-2) @ Utah Utes: (Loss) – Robbed. 

Nevada Wolfpacks (+2.5) @ Fresno State Bulldogs: (Winner)

Ohio State Buckeyes (-11.5) @ Northwestern Wildcats: (Winner) Easy one. 

Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5) @ Iowa Hawkeyes: (Loss) Field goals from 25 yards out won’t keep you undefeated. 

Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+24): (Loss) Is there any better team than Florida right now?

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5): (Winner) Right on the button here. 

North Texas Mean Green (+23) @ Florida Atlantic Owls: (Loss) The Mean Green were generous on Saturday. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College (-3.5): (Winner) And the Fighting Irish have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Shutout in this one. 

Arizona State Sun Devils (-14) @ Washington Huskies: (Winner) Weird, the Huskies lost and didn’t cover. This game was closer than that for a while, but the Huskies dropped the ball – I never saw it coming. 

Arizona Wildcats (-38) @ Washington State Cougars: (loss) The Cougars Win!!! Only against the spread – but it was closer than the 31 point margin insists. I finally lost one at the hands of Washington. Don’t worry, I’m not giving up yet! Ha.