Author Archives: Papa Weimer

Papas Picks: Week 11 NFL Underdogs! Jets, Raiders, Rams

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I’m buying what the dogs are selling. That’s right, I believe last week’s winners weren’t a fluke. I’m going back to them and the big points they are getting!

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Tennessee Titans (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Vince is back baby! Okay, maybe Chris Johnson is the guy flourishing, but the Titans continue to win when Vince is at the helm, undefeated since his return to the top spot, and I think that continues. They were good last year, they’ve been good lately! I’m buying in for +4.5! You bet!

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (+10): Yeah, I know, the Rams didn’t win last week you say, well they did in my book, and every other sports book. As you well know, the winners don’t always win in this game. The Rams have been awesome on the ground, running on everyone lately – that has to continue for them to have a chance, but the Cardinals are known to throw up a stinker form time to time – and Steven Jackson can keep the Rams close.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): What do all the Saints recent struggles have in common? Well, they’ve won them all, but they’ve lost ATS or struggled in games Sedrick Ellis has missed. He’s out again, and with no dominant run stuffer to clog the middle, the Saints D just ins’t the same. Plus, Tampa has played well of late, giving many a team hell. The rookie QB, Josh Freeman, has been plenty good to cover them spreads.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5): I can’t believe I’m getting 11.5 for the Chiefs in KC. That’s awesome. The Steelers have blown two teams out this year, and the Chiefs (while only winning two of their last 5) have covered 4 games in their last 5 chances. The short passing game of the Chiefs should cut down on the Steelers explosive blitzes, I think the Chiefs cover their 5th in 6 games.

Washington Redskins (+11) @ Dallas Cowboys: I like the Redskins here. What can I say, their defense is too good to get 11 from Dallas, and this is a big rivalry game. The Redskins may be 3-6, 2-6-1 ATS, but they’ve had some close games against good teams, and they won last week, beating up on the Broncos. I believe!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 11 Fantasy Football Questions

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Remember, hit me up with football questions at papaweimer50@hotmail.com…

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Alright folks, I don’t have any crazy into this week, just some fantasy questions and answers. Well I do have one thing, injuries suck and they can derail fantasy seasons. And in the NFL it can certainly be tough, but nothing is more ridiculous than NBA Fantasy Basketball and the injuries that go down in that crap. I finally told Lucky I’d play fantasy hoops with him, and I swear I have more “day-to-day” “questionable” “probable” “out” “out indefinitely” stupid reports about my players than I even have roster spots. What a joke. If football players didn’t play with things like sprained thumbs and strained calves, NFL games would stop after Week 4. Here’s my Q and A for Week 11!

Miguel writes, “Thank you so much for your detailed response last time; it really was good help! This week, I am in a spot trying to determine who to start at RB.  This is a PPR league that counts return yards. I can pick two between – Brandon Jacobs, Justin Forsett and LeSean McCoy. Thanks for the help!”

Miguel,  Glad I could help, and hope you enjoy the site.  I would go with Brandon Jacobs and McCoy – both McCoy and Forsett have their downsides in their match-up. 1 – the Hawks play the Vikings 2 – the Eagles love to pass the ball, hate running it. But without Westy in there, I think McCoy gets some targets in the passing game. 5-8 catches wouldn’t surprise me at all. I LOVE Justin Forsett’s ability, I’ve been begging Jim Mora to play that guy since about Week 3, and he finally got touches and put up big numbers against a dominate run defense in Arizona last week. But I still think Jim Mora is too stupid to give Forsett 20 touches this week against the Vikings. There’s very little room to run in Minnesota, and I think Hasselbeck will be looking for his receivers out wide against a Vikes secondary playing without Antoine Winfield. I think your best bets are McCoy and Jacobs.

Stanleigh in Cali says, ” I am getting hammered the last two weeks and have slipped to 4th place with two consecutive losses. Need a “W” this week and always appreciate your words of wisdom. Would you start Thomas Jones and Betts this week over Matt Forte or Justin Forsett? How about Marshall, Hester and Jennings over Hakeem Nicks?”

I might start Forte over Betts, Betts has a so/so to tough match-up, but I think Forte could catch a lot of balls against the Eagles – and Philly doesn’t have the greatest rush defense either. The Bears suck, but you might as well go down with your top pick and if he’s every going to do anything, this week in a huge Sunday Night game against Philadelphia is the right time. Other than that, yeah, I like your chances this week. Marshall could blow up against the Chargers, despite their solid pass D rating, Jennings has pretty easy match-ups going forward, it sure would help me out if he started catching touch down passes – and as for Hester, I don’t know, he’s probably your best bet for looks, because Jay loves to throw the ball, but Hakeem Nicks against the Falcons might be a nice chance for big points – Nicks is a stud, and while he shares starter minutes with Manningham, Nicks has proven to have the better hands – and while he’s more of a risk than Hester, he could capitalize on that solid match-up. Tough call, I think I’d stick with Hester based on his higher number of targets and the Eagles give up some big plays just about every week. Fantasy can get you down, no doubt, I’ve had a tough couple weeks in 2 of my leagues, keep losing by a couple every week. Tough deal.

And here’s one from last week that went well for Tami, she wrote, “SO I think I need some advice this week. So far, I’m 9-0 in a point per yard league. This week though, I’m torn with my RB and QB. Do I start Aaron Rodgers or Joe Flacco?? Flacco had a great game against Cle in week 3 but Rodgers has done great things for me this year.”

Tami,  Joe Flacco or Aaron Rodgers huh, I think I would go with Rodgers. Flacco’s match-up is solid, no doubt, and he did throw for 300 million yards last time he faced the Browns, but Rodgers has 6 consecutive multiple touchdown games. The Packers throw way too often, which isn’t good for winning actual football games, but come fantasy football, that’s exactly what you want. He’s thrown for 260+ yards 6 times in 8 games. That’s pretty impressive, plus, against a pass rush even better than the Cowboys’ and a very similar secondary (maybe Bid D’s is a little better than Minnesota’s, but it’s close) Rodgers threw for 380+ yards and 2 touchdowns, then 286 yards and 3 touchdowns – so he’s had success against the big aggressive defenses. Flacco’s a solid option, I just think they run the ball more this time out.

And here’s the other piece of advice I gave Tami that didn’t go so well, “Also, do I start Brown or Mendenhall? Brown has been in a small slump and Mendenhall got my win last week. My other backs are Adrian Peterson and Ricky Williams. Any advice is appreciated!”

So you need to start three, and you’re already starting Ricky Williams and Adrian Peterson? I think I would add Ronnie Brown to that mix if I had the choice between him and Mendenhall – however, Mendenhall and Ricky Williams would be the two guys I’m debating. On one hand you have Mendenhall, a big tough runner that has had some big games so far this year, including putting up 155 yards against a very tough Denver run defense, (I think he had 120 in the 2nd half alone, and it’s not like he had any long touchdown runs to pad his per carry stats). On the other hand, you have Ricky, a guy that’s played awesome this year, and has become a huge part of that rushing attack, and he’s playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense of all defenses – his stock is shooting up. It’s hard to start two running backs from the same team, but if there’s any situation where that would be a solid option, it would be Miami at home against Tampa Bay.

However, after considering everything, I think I’d pick AP, Ronnie Brown, and Mendenhall. I just want to buy into the Steelers committing to the run. Since he became the starter in Week 4, Rashard has not rushed for less than 62 yards, (165, 77, 62, 69, 155) and has rushed for fewer than 5.1 yards per carry just once. He’s had good numbers per carry against good defenses, (6.9 against Minnesota, 7.0 against Denver) so you wouldn’t think he’d be eliminated by the Bengals D. It’s a tough choice, definitely, but his consistency, and the fact that Ricky has rushed for fewer than 60 yards on 4 different occasions, plus just 27 and 33 yards the last two weeks, I’d have to go with Rashard. If you’re picking two guys, I would probably stick with AP and Ronnie Brown.

How’s a guy supposed to know that Ronnie Brown is getting hurt and Ricky will carry more than he’s carried all season. I hope you got the win anyway, Tami! Sorry!

Papas Picks: Week 10 NFL Underdogs! Lions, Bengals, Bills, Seahawks

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Last week I marched to my old ace drum, and what do you know, I came out aces, going 3-1 with my only ATS loss coming when the freaking Seahawks flew in late, just in the nick of time, taking a meaningless last minute interception to the house, getting Lucky Lester and the rest of the Hawks backers a win despite being outplayed throughout. But still, a tough loss, I’ll take 3-1 with a tough loss. You like underdogs? I sure do – here’s my top underdogs in Week 10.

Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: There’s not much to say about this one, except last time Detroit played the Vikings, the Lions played them tough. This is a 17 point spread, I’ll basically take anyone and 17 points – this one just proves it.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I get that extra half a point from 5 Dimes, I have to take this one. Lucky has said all along that these two teams are basically equal, and from what I’ve read, the home team doesn’t dominate this series. Cinci’s been great, I think they continue and keep this one close. 7.5, really? Has what Cincinnati has done meant nothing?

Buffalo Bills (+9.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Please. The Titans have won 2 in a row, that doesn’t mean they’re back to being the same team that won 13 straight to start the 2008 season. The Titans haven’t looked good enough to be a 9.5 point favorite against anyone, especially a Bills team that’s good at stopping an offense if they do just 1 thing. All the Titans do is run. This one will be closer.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) @ Arizona Cardinals: Listen, the Cardinals have been so up and down this year, and not very good at home, I’ll even take the Hawks against them. Seattle is coming off a bye week, something their injured list desperately needed, and I think it helps them against the Cardinals. Last time out, the Cards did exactly what Lucky thought they’d do, beating up the Hawks in all aspects. But Seattle isn’t as bad as their record insists, and I think they come out with a little pride in a game that has basically come down to being their season.

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 10

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I’ve been doing my thing. I hope all you readers are digging my advice, I’m getting more emails than ever before, and having a pretty good time interacting with the LL.com supporters out there – keep ’em coming, papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I can always dig some reader interaction. That being said, I can’t get everything right, all I can do is tell you what I think, give you the reasoning behind my opinion (as unpopular or crazy as it may seem, or turn out, for that matter), and take the good and the bad as it comes.

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Before I answer any questions, I’d like to let everyone know, never again will I draft a player that had their offensive coordinator fired just before the season… Never again will I eat a Taco Bell Black Jack Taco… Never will I ever even think about drafting a receiver getting balls thrown to him by any one of the following QB impostors, Jake Delhomme, Trent Edwards, Brady or Derek, JaMarcus, a rookie with a “big arm” (that one’s for you Mr. Stafford), or Kerry Collins… Never again will I expect great things out of a receiver in a new place (unless you’re Randy Moss-like and headed to Tom Brady’s neighborhood), or a receiver with a new coach, or a receiver with a new coach in a new place in a bad system, or Roy Williams… And last but not least, never again will I go watch football with my nephew, that Lucky little bastard switches around from game to game faster than my wife flicks through the damn channels when nothing’s on – that’s the only time in my life I wish I didn’t have every damn channel on TV. She goes so fast I can’t even see the naked breasts on skinamax…. NEVER AGAIN! Okay, vent complete, here’s the Q&A section!

Dave in Dakota says, “Papa, I hope the fantasy Gods have been smiling on you. I am hanging in there with my teams. Real quick, Which of these RBs should I try to pickup? (Betts,Bernard Scott,Forsett,Reggie Bush, or Kolby Smith?) These guys won’t start unless a good match up. Maybe a possible keeper in that bunch?”

The fantasy Gods have backed off the humility lesson the last few weeks, and I’m doing better. I would pick up Reggie Bush – he has been very explosive of late, and his surgery looks to be effecting him less and less –  then probably Kolby Smith (his upside is starter in KC where I don’t think anybody else has starter upside in that bunch. Next would be Justin Forsett (though that guy can’t buy touches, he’s always way more efficient than any other Hawk ball carrier but Mora hates his couch). And last Scott. I like Scott’s ability, he’s just a no-touch guy behind Benson (who has become a beast). Hope that helps!

Coach D in Minnesota asks, “Which WR Chambers or James Jones? What do you think of Bengals Def. vs the Packers Def?”

I would probably go with James Jones. I’ve always thought the guy was a starting WR in the league, and he’s making the most of his touches, I think he has 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games or so. Plus, with Nelson out, he’s become the sure #3 WR there, and they have many 3WR sets. But Chambers is a little intriguing. He just did nothing in the last couple years, so it’s hard for me to fully buy in to that performance.

I like the Bengals defense a lot, very opportunistic and stout up front. The Packers are okay, but not great by any means. You can’t trust them to play well any week.

Stan in San Fran writes, “All right, Papabear… here is the scenario: I have been offered Ronnie Brown and Buchalter in exchange for Forte and Westbrook. My other backs are Thomas Jones, Felix Jones and Ladell Betts. Brown and Jones would provide me with a solid RB foundation and their schedules are favorable; plus, both offenses are run oriented. I am, “on paper”, giving up a lot, but, that is only if Forte and Westbrook were performing at projected levels. Your thoughts?”

Papabear? Haha – I don’t even know how to respond to that. I guess I’ll just answer the question and eat all the honey later. I think your offer could be good for you, but Ronnie Brown isn’t always used as he should be, in fact, rarely does he get 20+ carries – then again, neither Forte or Westbrook look like awesome choices going forward either, and I would definitely rather have Brown than either of those two guys. Yeah, I’d go with the Ronnie Brown side of that trade – at the very least you know he’s going to get his carries and they do have a relatively easy schedule moving forward while Forte’s is tough.

Stan also writes, “In addition, and if the trade doesn’t go through, do I start Jones and Forte this week or do I insert Betts with a more favorable matchup than Forte (plus the short week and travel).”

I think I would start Forte and Jones or Betts – Jones just isn’t consistent enough for me, and at the very least I think Forte could catch 5 o 6 balls this week. Betts goes up against a tough Denver defense, but Clinton’s back-up will be getting starter carries, and he’s good at catching the ball out of the back-field as well. It’s a toss up to me, between Jones and Betts, but I think I might go with Betts.

Super Man Canada asks, “I need a look in your crystal ball. What do you see for Ronnie Brown? Ronnie Brown’s numbers have been down lately, do you think defenses are getting the best of the Wildcat, starting to figure it out a bit? My man is slipping.”

I don’t think it’s that, I think it’s that they’ve played the Saints, Jets, and Patriots in 3 straight weeks and Brown hasn’t approached 20 carries in any of those games. Prior to that he had 18 or more carries in 4 straight games, and that’s when he rushed for nearly 400 yards and 6 touchdowns. Who knows, the crystal ball has no guarantees, but Brown looks like one of the better bets moving forward – you know the Dolphins are going to run it, they’re at their best with the ball in Ronnie’s hands, and they play a pretty easy run schedule going forward. Plus, lots of smart people thought Ronnie would have a great year, can’t go against my gut when I’m half way through being right!

The Planless Man asks, “I have been offered Romo, Evans and Maroney for Boldin, Schaub, and Greene. What do you think? I know what I am thinking, but I want to see if you are thinking along the same lines as me. Thanks!”

Not for me. Schaub is better than Romo (though i like both), Boldin is way better than Evans, and while you gain a little with Maroney, I doubt he’ll be a player that is a difference maker for you. So you lose. Unless you’re starting Maroney as one of your Top running backs, you have to steer clear of this deal, a small upgrade at your #3 RB isn’t worth losses at your starting WR and QB spots. Plus, the DECLINE button is awesome to click!

Papas Picks: Free NFL UNDERDOG Picks for Week 9

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Needless to say, after going 0-3 in Week 7 I took a week off. I can’t be rocking 0-3 numbers when my nephew spends a good amount of time picking every game and winning on a regular basis. Don’t get me wrong, that’s good for the site, and what’s good for the site is good for me, but I hate losing and refuse to do it. So I spent a little more time digging into some dogs this week, and I agree with 1 of Lucky’s Picks, and am against him on 3 of my own. Good luck to him, I hope he goes 10-3, a great week! Here’s where the wild goose goes:

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HOUSTON TEXANS (+9.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: The deal is Houston plays Peyton and company tough – it’s the way it is. Matt Schaub has become a young quarterback that can make it rain on the toughest of pass defenses, and look at the Colts secondary, the thing is a substitute teaching clinic right now. 3 starters out. And those aren’t the only injuries in Indy right now. A lot is being said about Steve Slaton’s benching, shoot, I think he has a big week for the Texans and and outright win for the road scholars in this one wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Lots of free points, sign me up!

Baltimore Ravens @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3.5): The Bengals beat the Ravens once, and they can do it again. Cedric Benson became the first running back in a long time to make the Ravens look bad, and I think he can do it again. Joe Flacco won’t do enough to counteract the failures of the Ravens rushing attack against Cinci’s solid Run D. I like the Bengals to win outright, and hey, +3.5 at home is great value.

DETROIT LIONS (+11.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Sign the Hawks up as a team that should never ever, never ever ever, ever ever, be favored by double digits. They have back up linemen that will make the Lions pass rush look solid. I think Seattle wins, but by a field goal, a touchdown, 10 points at most. The Lions will do enough to keep this one within ten.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+5) @ N.Y. Giants: Lucky might not be willing to give up on the Giants, but I’m not willing to bet on them until they prove they’re the real Giants. I want the anixation of Puerto Rico Giants – not the Little Giants that get killed by everyone in the league. N.Y. has been thrown on a ton lately, and they’ve looked bad offensively. I’ll take Phillip Rivers to show he’s worth more than Ellie. Give me the Chargers in New York!

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 9 Fantasy Football Advice

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It’s been a long week already, and this damn thing is only Thursday -when will Sunday get here? A smart ass might tell me that it will be here right after Thursday and Friday get done with their business, but the nice thing about being old is you can swing and or throw things at people who are being smart asses and you basically get the “he’s old, he can get away with being a rowdy-rabble-rouser” free pass. So that three times fast. It’s a nice card to have, the “I’m old” card, it works for some many instances and really means so many things. Flirting with any good looking girl in any situation, no problem, I’m old. Yeah, it’s not all bad. But it’s true, I mean, I’ve made it this far, give a guy some credit. Plus, my memory isn’t what it once was, I can’t beat people at as many things, and not everything works all the time. But that still does. Keep it up, see if I don’t use my old person card on a left jab freebie. Okay, so you know the deal, already I’ve spent too much time polluting your eyes and minds with oldness extreme. Write in your questions to… papaweimer50@hotmail.com. I’ll answer them as promptly as possible, and if it’s useful to the masses I’ll put them up here in my weekly column. Dream big, penguins!

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David from the Midwest asks, “Should I try to get M Floyd or James Jones as a WR? What about this Moats thing? I have Slaton. Should I try to get Moats? I can’t believe they will bench Slaton especially after they lost Daniels. Is he trying to send a message? What have you been hearing?”

Boy tough deal, I’m also a Slaton owner and it’s hard to say. You’d think they wouldn’t completely give up on their second most explosive playmaker – especially after all he meant to this team going down the stretch last season – and I think he was definitely sending a message, obviously he doesn’t think Slaton is a poor player, but then again, Ryan Moats made the most of his opportunity, and it’s not like Slaton has been a stud running the ball this year. I think you and I are looking at a semi-running back by committee unless Moats’ success was due mainly to playing one of the worst defenses in the league. Obviously Slaton is a talented cat, and I agree, I couldn’t imagine he doesn’t get more than an equal share. But coaches have done crazier poop, and this Kubiak cat is from the Shanahan tree, we all know how easily that guy killed fantasy running backs. That being said, if you have an extra roster spot, Moats might be a safe play for you. I know my team is too good to get him off waivers, lots of people are ahead of me and I think he’ll be gone. As for Floyd or Jones, I actually like Jones as a player a lot more, but Floyd should be the surefire #2 in San Diego, and he has produced when given the chances. I think he’s the better option moving forward, though there’s a better player with a better skill-set that possesses all the things Floyd has (size, hands, etc) starting opposite him, in Vincent Jackson. I don’t think the Packers will use James Jones to his talents, so I’d go with Floyd and hope his increased playing time makes him a startable option.

Mike in Los Angeles types, “I have Ronnie Brown and DeAngelo Williams starting, but in my flex spot, should I start Clinton Portis, Kevin Smith, or Beanie Wells? The second flex spot is occupied by Alex Smith (with Favre on bye) – good idea to bench A. Smith and start two of the three RBs (I think not, with A. Smith vs. league’s worst pass D)?”

Thanks for the email. Thought the Titans secondary played pretty well last week in shutting down what had been a pretty efficient passing attack in Jacksonville, I’m just going to write that off as Jack Del Rio having too much input in the Jaguars offense, and continue to expect Tennessee to have trouble stopping the pass. I think Alex Smith is a good play there, especially considering the fact that quarterbacks are more of a sure thing than any other position. As for your other flex spot, I think Kevin Smith has the best match-up because the Hawks seem to struggle against physical runners, and Smith is physical. The Hawks have struggled a lot, especially with injuries, so beating them up on the ground seems like the best move. But you have to make sure Kevin Smith is playing. He got dinged up a bit last week, so check back later in the week to make sure he’s good to go. If he’s healthy, he’s the play. If not, I think I’d go with Clinton Portis and just hope and hope that the Redskins got it together during the bye week and will come out and feed their best player the ball. I don’t think Bennie Wells is a bad play, he could be solid, I just think he’s risky because with the Cardinals he could rush for 7 yards a carry but only get 5 carries – you know – because they run a circus offense. At the very least you know Washington wants to run the ball, and Atlanta’s rush defense is ranked in the bottom of the league. Hope that helps, good luck this weekend!

Bill Stanley (CUP) from Canada says, “I know I’m in Canada rocking a maple leaf and all, but I still have love for good old NFL Football – nothing quite like it. Anyway, I haven’t gotten into fantasy football yet, but I do rock a couple survivor pools. Now I’ve already gotten rid of Baltimore, Washington (crazy, eh), Green Bay, Indianapolis, Eagles, Steelers, Patriots, and Chargers – what do you think about taking Seattle at home against Detroit? Thanks in advance!”

Oh the maple leaf. You know, I can dig Canada. The universal health care, good people, hockey fools crushing skulls, even that mayonaise thing on random foods doesn’t gross me out too much – but nothing is worse than your world travelers. If there was ever a more annoying group of proud maple leaf Canadian flag representing guys, I haven’t found them. Now, you are good people, no doubt, but goodness, I’ve seen more maple leafs on 10 Canadian traveler’s bags than I’ve seen other flags on the hundreds of back-packs I’ve seen from all other countries. I got it, you guys are proud to be Canadian, you’re not from America, okay – but goodness, they’re running out of maple leaf patches! Okay, rant over, sorry, once again, appreciate hockey, good people, nice movie theaters, pretty hot girls, free health care – I can deal with the flag thing I guess. As for your answer, I think the Hawks are a ballsy pick, but they should win. I would probably go with Atlanta at home against Washington. I know the Falcons can play up and down, but they need this win bad, and they played really well against the Saints on Monday Night. This is a short week’s rest for Atlanta, but Washington is too icky to figure it out coming off a bye. Another option would be Jaguars – but again, that’s just as ballsy as Seattle, and I actually think the Chiefs could wheel an upset here if the stars align right. You can stick with Seattle, a decent choice and probably a team you won’t feel comfortable taking too often as the season moves forward – but I think Hot-Lanta is the safer pick in Week 9.

Papas Picks NFL Week 7: Only Underdogs! Bears, Chiefs, Falcons

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So, I went 2-1 last week, and look to, at the very least, keep that 66.6% rocking hard as the season moves forward. I’m taking dogs here, nothing but dogs from here on out, and going to show you that if you pick right, the dogs can make you money. I have another trio of games this week, expecting three outright wins but I’ll take the points. Here goes!!!

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Chicago Bears (+1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A lot is being said about Cedric Benson’s 1st game against the Bears since they cut him, blasted his work ethic, and basically told anybody that would listen how Ced was never going to amount to anything despite them spending a Top 5 pick on the guy. So at least one Bengal is going to be motivated come Sunday. But that’s not enough for me, and I think Jay Cutler has one of his “accurate games”, you know, 1 interception or less, carving up the opposing defense (though Cinci has been good this year on that side of the ball). I like the Bears to win on the road, I think their running game finally gets going a little bit, but not enough to make those owners that picked Matt Forte happy. Not that much.

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): The Chiefs are better than people give them credit for, the Chargers are much, much worse. Seems like enough for me, but wait, I have more. The Chargers defense hasn’t show the ability to stop anyone (even last week, they stopped Denver a bit, but Kyle Orton still came back to slice them up just enough to give the Broncos an easy win). If your defense can’t get off the field, then you can’t consistently cover road games where you are favored by 4.5 points. It could happen, sure, but the good money is on KC, and I’m a good money bettor.

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Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys: This is hardly a true underdog, as a majority of the public likes Atlanta at most sports books, but they are still 4 point dogs, and in Dallas where the Cowboys have a lame-duck coach, their offensive coordinator seems to be slipping, their huge investment “best” receiver is probably still out with ouchy tummy, and their defense hasn’t been able to put pressure on anyone, it’s just hard to like the Cowboys. Tony Romo should turn it around a bit this week, but Dallas can’t lock down on opposing offense’s #1 threats, and thus Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should find wide open spaces in the friendly confines of Cowboys Stadium. If that big ass TV screen doesn’t get in the way, and if they can keep their focus on the game and off the hundreds of cheerleaders acting as cage dancers, I think the Falcons pull away from Dallas late. There it is.

Papas Picks for Week 6: Only Underdogs! Ravens, Buccaneers, Raiders

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Papa’s Picks!

This is Papa Weimer, I usually leave making picks up to the intelligent youngster in the family, but this week I see a few underdogs that need to be mentioned. Now a couple of these are different from the wonder-kid, but I’m putting myself out on the line and saying even the guys who are always right give a wrong pick now and again. These are my Top 3 underdog pick:

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Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: I don’t know about you guys, but there’s something about AP getting shut down by the Packers and Rams that get me shying away from the old man and his gang of purple clad cronies. The Vikings are solid, no doubts about that, but Ryan Grant and Steven Jackson had pretty solid numbers over the last two games, and even though the Vikings have won pretty easily, I’m not ready to turn my shoulder on that. The Ravens run the ball twice as well as the Rams and Packers, so unless the Vikings are ready to turn it up at home this Sunday, and play a completely different game, I think they’re going to get an upleasant surprise. The AFC’s big dogs are tough, and the Ravens won’t walk gingerly into Minnesota. Lucky’s with me on this one, we both like us some Ravens this Sunday!

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Lucky has given up on the Bucs, and that’s fair, but what’s to like about Carolina? At least there’s a group of guys playing hard in Tampa, not just Jake Delhome in Carolina. Yeah, that’s right, despite his troubles, Jake is playing hard for his team. But that’s about it. That offensive line isn’t blocking tough enough to get two good running backs going, and they sure as all hell aren’t protecting Jake. Tampa ditched their Gaines Adams project this week, and I think that gets people thinking in Tampa, they’re trimming fat now, and it’s time to step up. I think the Bucs get their first win, because sometime they’re going to have to, but even if they don’t a close game gets me a win anyway, that extra half point late makes me a happy bettor. Go Buccos!

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders (+14.5): Hey, if Vegas is willing to give me a group of NFL football players and 14.5 points, I’m in. The Raiders are bad, sure, but only a couple McNabb interceptions need to happen for the Raiders to cover this spread. Maybe Al Davis is crazy, I wouldn’t doubt it, anybody that has combed his hair as much as that clown probably needs to be checked. But Tom Cable has fight, and there’s only so much time before the Raiders come out and show some. I think that’s this week at home against the Eagles. I think Michael Bush becomes a huge part of the Raiders game plan this week, and while nobody has mentioned him as a fantasy sleeper this week, I think his big plays, and a touchdown or two give the Raiders just enough to put some blankets on this large spread.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 6 Fantasy Football Advice

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It’s been a pretty busy week for me in fantasy football with answering questions for week 6. No doubt the listing of my email address last week (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) was just the trick I needed to be in here hunting and pecking for the right words to answer questions. I’ve listed some late questions and answers from last week’s stuff below, I also have some relevant questions for this weeks fantasy football action. If you have questions, ask them. If I get enough by later in the week, I’ll post my questions and answers again in Ask Papa Weimer Week 6, section b or 2 or something of the sort. Stop trying to confuse me. I’m witty folks, unflappable like Tiger and Larry Bird and Michael Jordan put into one chubby old white dude. I call it how I see it!

Last Week’s Late Questions:

Michael from Denmark wrote in, “I play in a points league, that also awards receptions. I’m pretty well set in most positions, but have big doubts as to who I should start in the flex position. My options are Tashard Choice, Rickie Williams and Roddy White. I like Choice’s matchup against the Chiefs, but with Barber recovering, I fear a dip in his workload. Rickie Williams is playing well, and with Pennington out, he could see enough of the ball to produce good numbers, but I don’t particularly like the Jets matchup. Roddy has been rusty, but as my top draft pick at WR, I feel that I shouldn’t abandon him completely, and I’m confident he will start to produce at some point, I’m just not sure it will be against a strong 49’ers D.”

Michael, thanks for the email. I am pretty sure I would roll with Tashard Choice. He plays against the worst rushing defense in the league, or at least one of them, and while Barber is expected to play, he’s not going to be fully healthy and the Cowboys didn’t want to make him carry the ball every time even when he was fully healthy. Choice is a very good runner that explodes through the line, and he has a very good chance to get a lot of carries for the Cowboys, especially if they get up early against the Chiefs. I wouldn’t start Ricky just because he’s going against the Jets. New York is great against the run, and they certainly won’t be too worried about Chad Henne beating them all day. Roddy is a great player, but until I’m convinced they are going to try and get him the ball, I’m going to stay away from him against great defenses. He’s a beast, always a threat to make a big play, but Nate Clements is one of the best defensive backs in the league, and thus I expect him to give Roddy a tough time all day long. In a better match-up, I would definitely give Roddy a shot. All’s not lost with him, but hopefully the Falcons will start taking chances with their best receiver… I think the match-up insists that Dallas could be up early and up big, and if that’s the case, why would they waste Marion and risk getting him hurt just for mop up duty in the 2nd half? That will be choice’s job, a job he’ll do very well, and he rates out highly as a flex option for me this week. (now of course Roddy White blows up, and Ricky did work too, luckily for me Teshard was plenty for Michael to win his league, even though he started Sims-Walker: he was luckier than me in that regard!)

BSimmons wrote in, “I have a question on which WR to start. Donald Driver is out for me this week and I have Nate Burleson, Donnie Avery and Braylon Edwards with his new team.. Who should I start?? Thanks in advance!”

I think your starter is Nate Burleson, and by a long shot. I’d either wait for Edwards to prove himself in New York, or sell him to someone who loves him in New York. It’s hard to join a team in Week 5 and be a plus player the rest of the year. Chris Chambers wasn’t very good for San Diego a few years back, and Roy Williams did nothing in Dallas last season. I don’t know of a situation where a mid season trade at receiver went well for that receiver’s fantasy stats. Avery is a nice talent, but he’s still battling a hamstring injury, and his QB situation is brutal at best. I’d leave him on your bench until he proves that he’s completely healthy. Nate has a great match-up against a porous secondary, and he gets nearly 10 targets a game or something like that. I like him as a start this week. Hope that helps! (all of these guys had nice weeks, but I found the top gun of the three, as Nasty Nate finished with 10 more points than either Donnie or Braylon – that being said, Braylon really impressed me for the Jets, he could be a solid play the rest of the season. I wonder if he eats into Jericho’s numbers?)

Stuck in a Trailer writes, “I’m stuck in a trailer in Colorado. I figured my best bet was to ask you my fantasy question this week.  Do I really sit Steve Smith (NYG),  my other receivers are Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Sims-walker.  A lot of people seem to think these guys are the better choice this week.  What’s your thought? Thanks!”

Has the snow begun or what? Jammed up in a trailer, I can see sitting Steve Smith. Anquan Boldin has a great match-up against the Houston Texans secondary, Larry Fitz should get lots of attention, and you know Kurt and company will be throwing the ball. Calvin Johnson plays against a Steelers secondary that has been brutal against the pass this season. And Mike Sims-Walker goes against the Seahawks, minus their only stud corner (Trufant) and in a huge rut the last three weeks. Steve has a tough match-up with Nnamdi but you’re right, it’d be tough for me to sit him after all he’s done. I’m not sure he’s the type of receiver that Oakland will try to take away with their top corner, but there’s a chance. If I were going to sit one guy and play Smith, I would sit Calvin Johnson, if only because if I was Pittsburgh I would just try to blitz the snot out of Culpepper with double coverage on Calvin. So yes, I would probably end sitting Steve Smith, but it’s a coin flip with Calvin. Steve has the tougher match-up, and is playing against a bad Oakland team so Eli won’t be throwing as much. Hope this helps! (who knew Calvin would get hurt immediately and Mike Sims-Walker would not even get to play because he broke a curfew or something – sorry man, hope the Trailor is warming up! – At least I helped him out properly with this next one…

” Stuck in a Trailer tries me again, “Thanks for the Quick reply.  I just might sit Steve this week and hope it proves to be one of those decisions I can brag about.  Your input was helpful in my decision making so I thought I might get your take on one more conundrum.  DeAngelo Williams, Clinton Portis or Reshard Mendenhall. Can only pick two and so far I think I have switched them around about nine times. No snow as of yet, but between awaiting your responses I’m stocking the wood shed.”

This Week’s Early Questions:

David in Minnesota sent a fearsome foursome of questions my way, “Maclin or Manningham who will be better in the long run? Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward, or Fred Jackson which of these would you keep and why? What about giving up Manningham for Sims-Walker, would you make that deal? How would you rank the following and why: Royal,Collie, Nicks Hakeem, and Crabtree.I am looking for a bye week replacement and a potential WR to take over for TO if he and Edwards don’t get their act together. Thanks for all your help!”

Anytime David – Here are your answers in order of the questions… Career-wise, Maclin, he’s a special dynamic – and this season, it’s a tough one. It depends on what you’re going for. Owning an eagle receiver is a scary gig. How many games will DeSean Jackson have 1 catch for 0 yards? I think Manningham is going to be good for 4-5 catches a week, a touchdown 6 or 7 times, and a decent flex or back-up receiver start. I think Maclin could have a couple no-shows, like Jackson this week, but that’s because the Eagles roll that way. It’s tough, surely, but I think Maclin has a better chance to have a huge week while Manningham has a better chance to be decent week in and week out. But, with the Eagles you really never know. If you want consistency, Manningham is probably your best bet. If you want a shot at big points, Maclin is your lottery ticket. Hope that helps David, that’s the best I can do.

Boy, tough call on those running backs; And it would depend on who your other running backs are. If you’re looking for a guy that might not do anything, but if his starter gets hurt he’ll be a Top 10 back, stick with Chester Taylor. Fred Jackson is another guy like that, but he should probably continue to get fantasy numbers, so keeping him around might be easier, but his upside isn’t as high as Chester’s. Derrick Ward has lost a lot of value with the emergence of Caddy and his health, and the demergence of the Bucs wanting to win this season. Jamal Lewis looks like he’ll get all the carries if he’s healthy, and that offensive line is tough, but I just don’t see the offense in Cleveland being worth while this year, that passing game is quite pukeish. Still, of all the guys you listed, I think Jamal is the surest thing for carries on a weekly basis. He has some tough match-ups, but if you’re looking for a guy to start week in and week out, Lewis might be your answer. Again, not a sure thing answer here, but hope that helps.

As for the WR switch, I would much rather have Sims-Walker….
And finally, I’d take Royal #1 because he is the best receiver you’ve listed, and he’s not a rookie. Hakeem Nicks and Collie are tied, in my mind, they will both be contending with other receivers all year long, and while Collie has been more productive, he’ll lose touches in two weeks when Gonzo returns from injury while Nicks might gain touches as he gets more comfortable with the NFL and Giants’ offense. I like Crabtree a lot, but he’s been out of football for quite some time, remember, he spent much of his off season getting healthy and staying off his foot. His talent is immense, no doubt, but it’s a long shot that he’s a top talent this season, so I’d rate him last out of that bunch, for this season.

Fantasy Football Advice: Ask Papa Weimer Week 5

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I couldn’t get the deal done last week, but I still answered all the questions that came in. So those of you that wrote in, keep doing so. Those of you that want to write in but can’t figure out how, send me an email at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – questions asked will be questions answered. As for football this weekend, my respect goes out to Brett Favre. The Packers weren’t going to let Adrian Peterson beat them, and Brett didn’t mind one bit, he just went out and threw lasers all over the field to beat his former team. Good on ya Brett! On to the questions…

I’m Tim Too asks, “Do I trade Rashard Mendenhall now, with his value oh-so-high, or do I wait until after Detroit for him to have even more value?” I have Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Knowshon Moreno already, and I need help at receiver to pair with my current trio of Carolina’s Steve Smith, Nate Burleson, and Roddy White. If I can trade Mendenhall for Boldin, should I do it? Or should I wait and see if I can’t trade Mendenhall for Andre Johnson after this weekend?”

I would trade Mendenhall for Boldin right now if you could. I like Mendenhall, and my nephew absolutely loves the guy, but you have great backs and solid receivers, but Boldin would probably be your surest thing moving forward. You never know what Tomlin is going to do with Rashard, how his youth will get taught lessons, and how Willie Parker will be used in that offense. What you do know is that if Boldin is on the field he is a PPR machine that makes touchdowns happen. And while Kurt Warner likes him, Matt Leinart relies even more on Boldin. So no matter what happens in Arizona, you’d think Boldin does big things. I’d rather have Andre Johnson, but what if Mendenhall doesn’t dominate the Lions, what if Parker gets half the carries, I think that if you are going to trade Mendenhall, Boldin is a nice get in return.

William out West types, “Papa, I’ve been offered a trade in my league that rewards big plays, has yardage performances, and goes all the way to the end of the season. It’s a points league. Kyle Orton and Julius Jones for Frank Gore and Heath Evens. I am currently 4th in my league standings and the Top 4 teams get paid. It’s a big money league. Do I trade Frank, and his bum wheel, for a good back-up QB (my current back up is Vick) and running back help right now?”

William, no. Frank Gore might miss two more games. If he stays healthy after that, he’s a strong candidate to get 100 yard games multiple times, he’s the bell-cow in that offense, and Mike Singletary likes to feed him the rock. The last time he played he went for 200+ yards against the Hawks. His defense is very good and the offensive line is physical. Kyle Orton is solid, but the way the Steelers have been throwing the ball, I’d rather have Big Ben in almost every situation. Stick to your guns, ride out the rest of the way with Frank Gore, because in a league like this he has some great value. See if you can’t pick up a guy like Jerome Harrison off waivers, and just do your best to make it through the tough time that Gore is down. Think future, 2 games out now might be good for 10 games healthy in the future.

Desmond Parker says, “I know you are a fantasy guy, and the general football questions go to your nephew, but do you have a sure thing survivor pick for me this week? I can’t take the Ravens, Vikings, Packers, or Colts. Any help is good help as long as I stay in my pool…”

Desmond, funny you should ask, I like to call myself the survivor pool guru. A few years ago, when the Saints were playing well and St. Louis was winless, I took the Rams in the survivor pool as the single opponent I was going up against took the Saints. Well, the Rams were winless no more and I got paid. Now that’s balls. Luckily, this week you don’t need those kind of rocks, you have lots of good options. I’d rank them as follows. Giants @ home against Oakland, Philadelphia @ home against Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh @ Detroit. I’d stay with the home teams, but if you really don’t like those two games, the Steelers should blow out their first opponent this season. Good luck Desmond, feel free to write in anytime – any football question is good enough for me!