Like Buzz Aldridge bouncing about the moon’s surface in 1969, some people out there just think the 3rd year receiver mantra is a hoax. I’ve always been a believer in this silly stat, reaching a little here and a little there for a 3rd year guy coming into his own. And I’m not the only one, on fantasy boards everywhere, 3rd year guys that didn’t ever do as much as Joey Galloway, Hines Ward, and Terry Glenn will almost assuredly be plucked ahead of the sure-thing veterans. So, I decided to do a little research for my loyal readers – lets take a look at some of the best receivers in the land, and see how they fared in their Jr. season in the league. Mantra or Myth? You decide. Remember, to break out in one year, a player has to have not had good fantasy years in the past.
Lucky Lester’s 2006/07 Wideout Predictions: I predicted the Top 10 fantasy wide receivers – here they are showing a difference between 2nd and 3rd year production:
2nd Year 3rd Year 1. Steve Smith 54rec, 872yd, 3TD 88rec, 1110yd, 7TD 2. Terrell Owens 60rec, 936yd, 8TD 67rec, 1097yd, 14TD 3. Chad Johnson 69rec, 1166yd, 5TD 90rec, 1355yd, 10TD 4. Reggie Wayne 49rec, 716yd, 4TD 68rec, 838yd, 7TD 5. Larry Fitzgerald 103rec, 1409yd, 10TD 69rec, 946yd, 6TD* 6. Marvin Harrison 73rec, 866yd, 6TD 59rec, 776yd, 7TD* 7. Lee Evans 48rec, 743yd, 7TD 82rec, 1292yd, 8TD 8. Roy Williams 45rec, 687yd, 8TD* 82rec, 1310yd, 7TD 9. Anquan Boldin 56rec, 623yd, 1TD* 102rec, 1402yd, 7TD 10. Javon Walker 41rec, 716yd, 9TD 89rec, 1382yd, 12TD
All of these cats showed an immense amount of talent by their 2nd season, its not as if they just turned the corner in Year 3. All but 2 of these guys had more than 3 touchdowns, Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin. ‘Quan only played 9 games in his second season. His 101 receptions, 1,377 yards, and 8 scores made up arguably the best season for a rookie wide receiver ever. And while I have to argue that all of these guys looked like great future players, it must be recognized that all but 2 were better in Season 3 than season 2. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Marvin Harrison spent a good portion of the their 3rd seasons on the sidelines with an injury. However, the only players that took a huge jump were Steve Smith (30+ more catches, 300+ more yards, and 4 more TDs), Lee Evans (30+ more catches, 500+ more yards, and 1 more TD), Roy Williams (30+ more catches, 600+ more yards, but he was also hurt in his 2nd season, plus his offensive coordinator is known for putting up big numbers). Barring injury, every player on this list was improved in their 3rd year.
But does that mean that Troy Williamson is a great selection? How about Roydell Williams? Reggie Brown? To answer that, lets look a little closer into my Top 12 wideouts who’ll be attempting to bust onto the scene in their 3rd go around for the 2007-08 NFL season.
1. Reggie Brown, Philadelphia: Reggie Brown’s 2nd season showed as much promise as every single player on this list besides Chad Johnson. Brown caugh only 46 balls, but took those for 816 yards and 8 TDs. Of the 10 receivers I looked at only Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens pumped out a better fantasy stat line than Brown. Not only that, but Reggie has become the surefire #1 starter in an Eagle passing attack that has been fierce over the past few seasons. McNabb’s injury throws out some question marks, but signs show he’ll be back for training camp. All in all, Brown is definitely at the top of the 3rd year receiver game, as I expect him to be a fantasy star early and often.
2. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland: In his first two seasons, Braylon failed to play all 16 games in either. However, that didn’t stop him from being a fantasy factor. After tearing his MCL in his rookie campaign, Braylon fought through rehab and poor quarterbacking to post 61 receptions, 884 yards, and 6 touchdowns. That puts him in the same 2nd year class as Mark Clayton. Edwards still has question marks at quarterback, but his offensive line and running game will both be improved this season, especially if the LeCharles Bentley comeback rumors are true. Edwards is too big and fast to be a bad play, even with a dicey quarterback situation. I think Edwards could have a 1,200 yard 10 TD year in 2007.
3. Mark Clayton, Baltimore: After 1 season, their were many fools out there ready to label this stud receiver a bust. And while the beginning of 206 was a little slow, Mark pushed out some fantasy totals that should get 3rd year guru’s excited for the future. His 67 catches, 939 yards, and 5 scores were better (fantasy-wise) than Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, or Marvin Harrison in their second seasons. I’m not a huge fan of the Raven passing attack, but Steve McNair can still throw the ball alright, his deep ball has a nice touch, and a new speedy running back could help Clayton even more. I’ve liked Mark since his Oklahoma Sooner days, and I see no reason to pass on him in your upcoming draft. Yet another good bet as a 3rd year guy.
***This is where the real 3rd year test should start. Everyone knows the 1st three guys on this list are going to be fantastic NFL players, 3rd year numbers or not: they already busted out last year. The rest of the bunch, staring with Jackson and Matt Jones, have the talent, but can they really get it done in the true 3rd year mold?***
4. Matt Jones, Jacksonville: Now here’s a guy that needed at least 3 years to catch up to the receivers that had actually been playing the position since high school. Jones was a college quarterback, but the Jaguars saw enough potential in Jones’ 6’6″ frame to select him in the 1st round 3 years ago. Jones only started 4 games of a passing deficient Jacksonville club last season, but still managed 41 grabs for 643 yards and 4 scores. Of the 10 guys, these numbers are closest to Reggie Wayne’s totals, but not as good as any of my Top 10. However, the upside might be just as good. Remember, this is Jones’ 3rd year… As a receiver. That’s a little different than it only being his 3rd year in the league. He’s both, so he’s got one hell of a 3rd year mantra going. He’s a chance, especially with question marks at quarterback, but the running game in Jacksonville, the new passing offense that’s getting installed, and all that good stuff make Jones worth the risk. Get his as a 3rd or 4th receiver (that’s when he gets drafted) and reap the benefits.
5. Vincent Jackson, San Diego: VJ only caught 27 balls last season for 453 yards, but his 6 TDs in that time, plus the way the kid flourished at the end of the season has everyone slapping the sleeper tag on this speedy 6’5″, 240lb receiver. In his last 4 games, Jackson tallied 286 yards on 14 grabs with 3 touchdowns. The Chargers also cut Keenan McCardell, giving the #1 gig to Vince. Personally I think he’s a step (year) away from “breaking out”, but obviously the talent is there. However, Jackson’s 2nd year doesn’t get anywhere close the numbers the Top 10 guys put up, aside from Boldin who only played a half season. He’s a prospect and has a great young QB, but don’t bet your wad on him topping the fantasy charts as a 3rd year super star. I wouldn’t like going into the season with him as a projected starter on my squad.
6. Brandon Jones, Tennessee: There’s a very good chance that Brandon Jones will be the #1 wideout in Tennessee this season. David Givens is and has been hurt since he got off the plane from New England, and all the other guys who had a chance to be the man took off in free agency. I don’t know if this is a great thing, but it’s something. Jones caught 27 balls for 384 yards and 4 scores last season, starting in 10 games. Basically he’s not anywhere close to the 3rd year numbers from my top guys. Aside from being the probable #1 (and that might just get him matched up against #1 corners) Jones has a sophomore quarterback who had trouble throwing and a running game that lost its best back. Jones is coming into his 3rd season, but this may be the false hope that fantasy basements are made of.
7. Troy Williamson, Minnesota: Williamson, has been a serious disappointment for the Vikings since he was drafted 7th overall to replace Randy Moss. This off-season, he has corrected an apparent eyesight problem and has been said to be very impressive in off-season workouts. He’s on a team with a young and raw signal caller, in an offense that was anemic for much of last year, and no “real” threats at receiver. Troy has the speed, but his hands have been questionable since college. I personally know what its like to see clearly for the first time in years, so his surgery could have done the trick. Williamson has never posted good numbers, not even close to 2nd year elite status, so don’t expect the 3rd year to propel him to the forefront of fantasy football. However, with medical work done, and a newsworthy off-season showing, Williamson might just be pickable in the last round of drafts.
9. Roddy White, Atlanta: White has the speed and the off-season addition of Joe Horn might even help him (opposed to hurt him, which many have claimed). Roddy has always shown promise, but lacked the concentration to catch the ball too often to be startable., who will force White into a somewhat lesser role. Head coach Bob Petrino will utilize countless three-receiver sets, so White will be used to stretch defenses and could have late-round value. His 2nd season showed no progress, as he started less games, and scored no touchdowns (compared to 3 as a rookie). Roddy enters his 3rd year with something to prove, as his 1st round selection has made him a bust thus far. His QB situation in Atlanta won’t help his cause, and I would suggest not paying much attention to this blip on your radar.
10. Mike Williams, Oakland: “It’s his 3rd year, this is the time for him to break out!” Shut up! I never thought I’d be the one to tell you to steer far clear of Mike Williams, but don’t pick this kid in any yearly fantasy format. Williams has been reunited with his old offensive coordinator from USC, but that could only mean he’ll feel more comfortable now, and not worry so much about his weight. As if he does. Williams still has the hands and ball skills to be a fantasy weapon in this league, but before you go wasting a pick on his potential, pick up Rod Smith instead. He’ll almost certainly give you more points. I know the idea of JaMarcus Russell’s deep bombs finding Williams’ hands gets every college football fanatic up dancing, but slow down, that’s just improbable. The 3rd year for Mike doesn’t get me more excited than watching a Friends rerun.
11. Roydell Williams, Tennessee: Williams could become one of the starters in Titan-land. However, he’s still not worth much in my mind. In fact, he could be one of the least valuable starters in the entire NFL. I don’t mean to break this kids’ balls, and that’s not what I’m trying to do, but he’s tallied 29 catches, 320 yards, and 2 scores in 2 years. Not only that, but he only caught 8 in 14 games last year – no touchdowns, either. Williams is driving up to his 3rd season, but like half the kids on their 3rd year bump, he’s not worth much of a look. Even as a starter, I’m not so sure I wouldn’t rather take a flier on Chris Henry coming back in Week 8, and not getting in trouble again.
12. Chris Henry, Cincinnati: Who knows how many games this donkey will miss this season. He’s suspended for at least half of them. Henry probably has 2nd most talent on this list, but I’m not going to waste much time talking about him, at most he’ll play half the year. However, he could be a boost if picked up as a waiver-wire guy in Week 7 or 8.
There might be better ways to look at this, using more average wide receivers – but I’m not looking for average guys. I’m looking for elite players that are ready to step up and win me a fantasy title. The first 3 guys have a fighters chance at doing that; Brown, Edwards, and Clayton. Vincent Jackson and Matt Jones have an “If you’re lucky” shot at becoming a breakout guy in their 3rd year, and the rest of the guys have a “you lucky son of a…” chance at becoming a fantasy weapon in Year 3. There wasn’t one elite guy (My Top 10 this season) who didn’t have less than 600 yards and 3 touchdwons in their 2nd season (Boldin’s half season not counting). I’d say that year 3 is just as good as any other year to see how good a receiver is going to be – its no crystal ball. It might be the year a good guy steps up and becomes a great guy, but its rarely the year fantasy-nothings become fantasy-starters. Remember that on draft day; taking a guy that has done nothing often becomes nothing more than a waiver wire transaction.