Monthly Archives: August 2009

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers

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Wide receivers and their tiers are very important on draft day. Because of the up and down ways of the position, their reliance on many other positions, the break out candidates in comparison to the every-year studs, and their overall effectiveness on a weekly basis, tiers are the only way to rank this position. Often times the guy ranked 20th and the guy ranked 40th are so close in production (both in predictions and actual numbers) that reaching for receivers – after the top ranked guys are gone – is as ridiculous as taking a defense in the 8th round. Follow the tiers, and get who you want, but overpaying for a “hopeful” could hinder you all season long. I’ve also took into account “upside” which I think is very important with a receiver. Taking late chances on guys with upside makes more sense than a sure thing 500 yard 4 touchdown guy. Believe me. Good luck!

I

  1. Andre Johnson (1)
  2. Larry Fitzgerald (2)
  3. Randy Moss (3)

I would love one of these three. Andre is a beast, I’ve always been fond of him, and Larry Fitzgerald laughs in the face of the double team. Randy Moss has his quarterback back, and while the all time TD season for receivers probably won’t be repeated, somewhere in the teens seems likely, and that’s an awesome year for pretty much any player. I do like AJ as my #1, that offense will be that much better this season. Plus Larry Fitz is on the cover of Madden, that moves him out of the top spot right there. Believe it!

II

  1. Steve Smith (4)
  2. Calvin Johnson (5)

Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson are very close to my top tier and also very close to the next 4 guys, but that puts them right smack dab in their own little tier. Smith has all the ability in the world and a quarterback that loves to throw him the ball. The problem is, there really isn’t a #2 receiving threat on that team, so everything Steve does is watched with a careful eye. That being said, he’s probably the most dangerous receiver in the game, because he still does work. Calvin Johnson is a freak of nature, and if he were on any team with a better passing attack than Detroit, I’d value him higher. One of these days he’s going to be the best receiver in the game, I just don’t think we’re quite there yet.

III

  1. Anquan Boldin (6)
  2. Greg Jennings (7)
  3. Roddy White (8)
  4. Reggie Wayne (9)

Anquan Boldin was originally behind Jennings and White on my list, but looking into his game moves him up for me. Sure, there’s injury concern there, but only because the guy does everything and catches anything thrown close to him. You know Kurt Warner will feed him the ball, and if Bolding gets touches and stays healhty, he’s a Top 5 guy, so I moved him up. Greg Jennings and Roddy White are guys I predict to finish just a hair behind Boldin this season. Both have great young quarterbacks, a physical receiving style, and tricky speed that gets them behind defenders game after game. These two guys will be great #1 options this season. The only thing bringing them to my 3rd tier is the way I see their offenses changing a bit. Some of Roddy’s touches will go to Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas (the talented #3 in Atlanta) and I doubt Ryan Grant will rush for just 4 TDs this season, meaning a couple of those might come out of Jennings’ stats. Still, both these guys are legit #1’s. I love Reggie Wayne, and so does Peyton Manning, who last time I checked is a really good quarterback. And I think he will be a legit #1 this season, however, for the first time in a long time, I’m not sure about the Colts. That’s right, Peyton had his own questions this off-season, and despite claims that all looks peachy, questions are rarely a good thing. Will Reggie struggle? No, I don’t think so, but just thinking about change drops him a bit in my list.

IV

  1. Brandon Marshall (10)
  2. Terrell Owens (11)
  3. Marques Colston (12)
  4. Dwayne Bowe (13)

Brandon Marshall maybe be all clown, but the kid can run with and catch a football with the best of them. You know the Broncos are going to throw the rock, and I know they are going to get double digit TDs from Marshall. I can only imagine that Marshall becomes the Randy Moss of the Broncos offense, and that will put him in the Top 10. TO may be in Buffalo where apparently “they have no offense” but I’m sold on him being in the Top 15 at seasons end, even though he’s collecting years well into his 30s and plays in icy Buffalo. Edwards is an accurate passer, the O-line looks more cohesive this season, Lee Evans is a game breaker on the opposite side, this is the best receiving partner TO has had in a while now. The running game is legit for the Bills. I see a nice year from the drama king, but I’m not sure he’ll be a Top 10 guy. Colston is a beast, catches everything, has great body control and can run. His coach is a not to be trusted with talent. I love Colston and he’ll probably have a big year, but there’s questions there that drop him into my 4th tier. Dwayne Bowe has tons of talent, is going to be one of the leagues best receivers in the next few years, but I think the KC offense struggles a little bit this season. Matt Cassel is supposed to have all the answers, but I’m not so sure they’ll be this season. New coach, new QB, new schemes – could be great, but lots of ifs.

V

  1. TJ Houshmandzadeh  (14)
  2. Eddie Royal (15)
  3. Wes Welker (16)
  4. Vincent Jackson (17)
  5. Roy Willians (18)

I love TJ going to Seattle, but only if Hasselbeck is healthy all season. Big question. Still, if Housh can put up the numbers he did last season in Cinci where the whold circus seemed to be going down around him, I think he’ll be just fine in Seattle. His reception total should get up around 100. Eddie Royal is going to play the Wes Welker role, and I have to be honest, I like his talent more than Wes. I also think Orton will be looking for him because Royal catches everything and runs brilliant routes. Wes Welker has his main QB back, and even last year Welker was a catch machine. More touchdowns than ’08 move him into my Top 20. Vincent Jackson will be more consistent this season than he was last. I see him catching at least 70 balls which will get him up aroudn 1200 yards or more. Rivers is solid, that running game keeps the defense’s attention, Jackson will move up the charts. Roy Williams is my biggest risk in my 5th tier, but the guy has great hands and all the speed in the world. He runs duck-footed, which scares me a bit, but Tony Romo is a great QB, that running game is tough with 3 good runners, and Jason Witten will get enough attention to give Roy room to work. He’ll have a good ’09.

VI

  1. Chad “Johnson” Ochocinco (19)
  2. Anthony Gonzalez (20)
  3. Lee Evans (21)
  4. Lance Moore (22)
  5. Braylon Edwards (23)

If you’re a veteren reader of my rankings, you’ll know that I was never a huge fan of Chad Johnson’s up and down weeks that always seemed to compile good year-long numbers. He’s a very talented receiver with a quarterback that possesses all the tools, and TJ’s not around to compete with Ocho as a #1 target. However, he’s streaky, he’s a little bit of a personality question mark, and I’m still ranking him higher than most sites. Will he be a Top 10? I think those years are over, but in the Top 20, you bet. Anthony Gonzalez should come into his own this year. As the sure-fire #2 and with Marvin gone, and the fact that Anthony was always very productive with Marvin out, Gonzalez is going to have a nice year. I have him ranked higher than most. Lee Evans may get some targets taken away from him, but no longer will he be constantly swarmed with double teams. TO, if anything, takes that away. Less targets but less attention could mean one of Lee’s biggest seasons. Lance Moore is getting absolutely NO love from the fantasy world. After a huge breakout season where he basically became Brees’ top option in New Orleans, I’ve seen Lance sit around 40. I guess I’m buying into what last season sold, call me a believer in Moore’s hands. Braylon Edwards showed lots of potential a couple seasons ago. But the Browns have fallen hard, and his drops have played a big role. This season he will be in a Man-Jina offensive system, but only if he gets in shape and doesn’t get into the dog house. I think he’ll be solid, but selecting him is high risk and possibly very high reward.

VII

  1. Hines Ward (24)
  2. Antonio Bryant (25)
  3. Torry Holt (26)
  4. Bernard Berrien (27)
  5. Santana Moss (28)
  6. Santonio Holmes (29)
  7. DeSean Jackson (30)
  8. Jericho Cotchery (31)
  9. Dominik Hixon (32)
  10. Devin Hester (33)
  11. Laveranues Coles (34)
  12. Derrick Mason (35)
  13. Donald Driver (36)
  14. Kevin Walter (37)
  15. Josh Morgan (39)

Alright, I can’t talk about every single guy left on the list, but these guys are all very useable players. People say receiver is a shallow position this year, I think that’s a joke. I just think that there’s not much value in drafting any of the guys not in the Top 23 early. Wait, relax, breathe, and you might find a late steal on guys that fill out your receiver position like Santana Moss, Torry Holt, Jericho Cotchery, DeSean Jackson, Dominik Hixon, Devin Hester, and even sure thing performers like Mason and Driver, not to mention a load of young guys getting a chance to prove themselves this year. The people that think Hester won’t improve at all in his 2nd year at playing receiver are just plain crazy. Even without Cutler the guy would get better, Jay is just an added rocket fire arm bonus. Hixon is getting no love at all, and I think he’ll be the top Giant receiver, easily. Holt could be great in Jacksonville, I mean sure, he’s old, but he’s always open and Garrard and the Jags have never had a receiver with his type of talent – could be a nice year to take a chance on the wiley old vet. Josh Morgan? Face it, Royal and Morgan would have destroyed college football if they had a QB that could throw in college. Morgan is going to be the top receiving option in SF too. There’s options here, they just aren’t top notch guys, but I would love to have a couple of these guys on my squad.

VIII

  1. Hakeem Nicks (40)
  2. Steve Breaston (41)
  3. Ted Ginn Jr. (42)
  4. Deion Branch (43)
  5. Earl Bennett (44)
  6. Michael Crabtree (45)
  7. Donnie Avery (46)
  8. Nate Washington (47)
  9. Percy Harvin (48)
  10. Mike Walker (49)
  11. Nate Burleson (50)
  12. Patrick Crayton (51)
  13. Bobby Engram (52)
  14. Michael Jenkins (53)
  15. Mark Clayton (54)
  16. Mark Bradley (55)
  17. Isaac Bruce (56)
  18. Chaz Schilens (57)
  19. Chris Henry (58)
  20. Mushin Muhammad (59)

This list is full of huge upside, high risk, low risk, guaranteed numbers, possible goose eggs – but they rank out from 40-59 on my list. A guy like Deion Branch might get back to his best seasons with another option like Housh in town. When Branch has been healthy and in the game, he’s done well. Earl Bennett, Jay Cutler was his college QB, the know each other well, that’s something I’d like to have as a receiver. Crabtree has unreal ability. Get into camp young fella. Mushin is going to get some scores and catches and yards too, even though he’s older than time. Then you have a guy like Percy Harvin, he’s going to get targets and rushes, the Vikings drafted the RB/WR combo in the 1st round, believe me, they have plans for him. There’s lots of upside here, like I said, and then you have the Crayton’s, Engram’s, and Bruce’s of the world. Not much in terms of upside, but guaranteed numbers. I personally like to take low round chances on high upside receivers, Walker, Harvin, Avery, Bennett, those are a couple I think could do work this season.

IX

  1. Jeremy Maclin (60)
  2. Kenny Britt (61)
  3. James Jones (62)
  4. Jordy Nelson (63)
  5. Sidney Rice (64)
  6. Pierre Garcon (65)
  7. Dwayne Jarrett (66)
  8. Antwan Randel-El (67)
  9. Chris Chambers (68)
  10. Mike Thomas (69)
  11. Patrick Turner (70)
  12. Derrick Williams (71)

This last list is full of young guys with big question marks. Maclin has all the speed but what about the route running? I think James Jones could be a nice #2 somewhere in the league, but Jordy Nelson is pushing him for the #2 spot – it’s tough. I’ve heard good things from Garon, Mike Thomas, and Patrick Turner – lots of talent, but these guys have shown nothing in the NFL, making them a risky pick – but you can get them late, last round late, and that’s always worth a shot.

2009 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

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Running backs are the key to fantasy football. If you blow your first two picks on a receiver and a quarterback, you have to really luck out to find yourself in the playoffs come Week 14 (or where ever you start the post-season). The same can be said for blowing your first two picks, if your top two studs start slow or get hurt, you’ll find yourself in an early season hole. These tiered rankings should help you find value at the running back position throughout your draft.

I

  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (1)
  2. Matt Forte (2)
  3. Adrian Peterson (3)
  4. Michael Turner (4)

My first tier is bigger than most, with a different order than most. What can I say, it pays to be different. Almost every ranking I’ve seen has Peterson and Turner or Turner and Peterson cuddling up like puppies at the top of their player rankings. Not me, oh no, not I. Talent-wise, sure, Peterson takes the cake, but Percy Harvin only takes away from his touches, and the guy is going to take one to many hits one of these days. Production-wise, I see how he can go #1, but right in front of Turner at #3 is where I have AP. Turner was a stud last year and despite the high carry load in ’08, I predict his ’09 will be right in the top tier of backs. He doesn’t have too much wear on his tires, but his team has only gotten stronger in the talented weapon department. His back-up is talented, and added to one of the best young receivers in the game is probably the best receiving TE ever, Tony Gonzalez. Less touches for Turner means less fantasy production, but still plenty of action to be considered a top pick. With everyone’s Top 2 at 3 and 4 respectively, that means my top 2 looks a little different. Matt Forte busts in at 2 on my sheets, as he should be smiling from ear to ear at the addition of Jay Cutler. I don’t think Forte will catch as many passes as last season, Cutler’s not much of a dump down guy, but he will get a lot of carries, he will be playing against defenses that have to worry about the air attack, and thus his YPC will go from 3.9 to 4.4 – at least that’s what I’ve got. That moves his production up – and last year his production was consistent and legit. Forte will be great, but MJD will be better. That offensive line is healthy and stocked with more talent than it’s ever been. Jones Drew will aproach 18-20 carries a game, and that is what gets him to the top of my chart. He’s never been a high-touch back, but he’s always been a big time game breaker, touchdown maker, and fantasy producer. That’s a lot of ers, but they are all good. When you add 8-10 more touches a game to his talent, you get the best fantasy back in the league.

II

  1. LaDainian Tomlinson (5)
  2. Chris Johnson (6)
  3. Steve Slaton (7)
  4. Frank Gore (8)
  5. Steven Jackson (9)
  6. Brian Westbrook (10)

My 2nd tier is 2 backs heavier than my 1st, which means I have a lot of guys resting near the same value. Which means I’d rather be at the end of drafts, picking in the 8-12 slot – you’re guaranteed a good one, maybe not sexy, but sexy gets you money as a playboy model, not a spot in fantasy playoffs. LT gets the 5th spot on my list. Dude may be 30, but he’s one of the best backs of all time, and he’ll be a great option again this year. This might be the last year LT breaks my top 10, but I’d love to get him on my squad, especially where he’s going in most drafts (about 10th overall). Chris Johnson is a stud, and many have him pegged with more touches in 2009, but I’m not so sure. LenDale White is a productive big man, and he’s in as good a shape as he’s ever been in since somebody gave him his first twinky. People are stupid, they jump on the “fat” band wagon, but White is in good shape and will steal yards and touchdowns from the owners taking Chris Johnson in the Top 5. However, he’s still worth an early pick, and he has as much upside as anyone. He’s the Usain Bolt of running backs, on a different speed level than everyone else. Steve Slaton is a flat out stud on a team that will be one of the Top 10 offenses in 2009, and a lot of that has to do with his all around skill set. Great receiver, great runner inside, outside – he does it all. He may be small, but all he needs to do is stay healthy to easily be a top 10 back in his 2nd season. Gore is a great player on and offense that should be improved in ’09. It is also an offense that won’t go away from their main guy. If healthy, Gore is as talented as any back in the league, and with a new smash mouth approach, he’ll be a nice top 10 guy. Steven Jackson is a beast, and while I dig his talent, his offense is young and Marc Bulger is a sack artist – or at least a canvas for other sack artists. That won’t help the Rams stay in running situations. But Jackson might go back to his early years, and I expect his rushing yards to be easily over 1000 while his receiving yards get up to 600+ yards as well. Will the Rams be in touchdown position that often? That’s why he slips a bit. Brian Westbrook is old, yes, but he stays in my 2nd tier because all he does is produce. He was pretty inconsistent last season, despite his nice end-game numbers, most of his stats came in big chunks. Still, this offense only gets better with additions of young talent, and Westy should be back to his old tricks (even though his age is catching up to his injury history) and still deserves to be a Top 10 back.

III

  1. DeAngelo Williams (11)
  2. Marion Barber (12)
  3. Kevin Smith (13)
  4. Brandon Jacobs (14)
  5. Clinton Portis (15)
  6. Ronnie Brown (16)
  7. Ryan Grant (17)

My 3rd tier has some stars from last year, yester year, and the future. DeAngelo Williams had a great year last season, better than any other back in the league, but Jonathan Stewart will stay healthy this year, and while that won’t make Williams a bum, it will keep him out of the Top 10. He’s a solid runner on a run-happy team, if he didn’t have one of the league’s most talented backs teaming up with him in the backfield then he’d easily bust into the Top 10. Marion Barber is a beast, one of my favorite backs in the league. He struggled as the Cowboys struggled last year, but before his injury he was a Top 5 back. This year he falls a bit because I can only imagine Felix Jones getting more carries, and even though Dallas will run more in ’09, Barber will be lucky to slip into the Top 10, but he’s still a solid #2 for your fantasy squad. Kevin Smith isn’t getting as much love as he deserves. Last year, on one of the worst teams in NFL history (worst record-wise) Kevin still rushed for just under 1000 yards and caught 39 passes as well. He’ll be a go to guy in this offense, an offense that is getting tougher up front. Brandon Jacobs is a beast, the scarriest guy to tackle in the NFL, but he’s a really big guy that runs fast, and that’s cause for concern (injury-wise and for defensive health). Jacobs will get his 100+ and a TD if he’s playing, that’s almost a given, but defenses will key in on him this coming season, and his health could easily have him missing the better part of 3-4 games. Still, with 12 games starting he’s a Top 15 player. He loses some in PPR leagues though. Clinton Portis is always good. He was a surprise fantasy all-star in the first half of last season, going for 940 yards and 7 TDs. He finished slow, like the Redskins, but still managed 1487 yards and 9 TDs and just over 1700 total yards for the season. He’s only 27 when the season starts. But he’s older than his age insists, and while I’d love to see him prove me wrong, it will be tough for him to duplicate last season’s stellar stats. He’s still a great #2 though. Ronnie Brown gets a lot of flak for getting most of his fantasy points in one week last season against New England. But I don’t worry about that. He’ll get more carries, more catches, and more touchdowns this season, and he’ll do it more consistently. A great all around back 2 years after knee surgery. Remember 2007 when he tore up the first half of the season? His numbers will be closer to that than last year’s totals. Ryan Grant is a beast. He started slow, hung on to a naggnig hammy injury, and got carries taken away from him during the first half. But this year his TDs will double, and he’ll run more efficiently. He runs down hill really hard, expect better things from him – I do.

IV

  1. Larry Johnson (18)
  2. Darren McFadden (19)
  3. Knowshon Moreno (20)
  4. Derrick Ward (21)
  5. Marshawn Lynch (22)
  6. Jonathan Stewart (23)

I might rank LJ higher than everyone else. I guess I remember the guy that buried opposing defenders when they got in his way. He was a beast teaming up with Preist Holmes, and he was even better when he got the #1 gig a year later. Some stuff has happened, he was carrying a lot of baggage, and he didn’t get many carries last season. It won’t take the new coach long to realize that he’s a top option on the team, and he’ll get back to scoring touchdowns and getting 20 touches a game. McFadden is too talented to struggle again. Last season was last season, you can’t always rely on what happened last year when drafting your team. Take a chance on a kid with all the talent in the world on a team that is gung-ho about getting him the ball – even if they are a semi-pro franchise. Knowshon may be a rookie, and he may be in the same scheme that never produced a Top 20 fantasy back in New England, but he does it all. He may not have the best 40, but there’s players that get it, run well in pads, and go fast enough to win – that’s Moreno, he’ll show it in his rookie season. Derrick Ward is a very good runner that can do all the little things. I honestly think he’s a better back than Jacobs, because he can catch too. I expect him to get most of the looks in Tampa, and that line is better than many people think. Marshawn Lynch will only play 13 games – but so what, so will a lot of running backs this season. You’ll be able to get him late for missing the first three games. Do it. Then even later pick up Fred Jackson, now you have a starting back, a good one, for two later picks. Lynch doesn’t get huge numbers, but he always gets solid stats, that helps your squad win every week. Jonathan Stewart, in my cocky opinion, is the best running back on this list, but he’s got a great back he’s sharing time with. Still, if Williams and Stewart are more even this season, splitting stats 50-50, that still makes for over 1170 yards and 14 touchdowns for J-Stew – that’s good production where he’s being drafted. Plus his upside is unlimited.

V

  1. Pierre Thomas (24)
  2. Reggie Bush (25)
  3. Joseph Addai (26)
  4. LenDale White (27)
  5. Ray Rice (28)
  6. Felix Jones (29)
  7. Beanie Wells (30)
  8. Thomas Jones (31)
  9. Julius Jones (32)
  10. Willie Parker (33)
  11. Cedric Benson (34)

Pierre Thomas would be ranked higher if I thought his coach would do anything right. The kid is talented, always has been, always produces when given the chance, and was the best back in NO last season. That being said, that clown in a man-suit running the Saints isn’t to be trusted, but Pierre is still Top 20. Even if he runs less, Bush is still a great receiver out of the backfield, and was having a pretty damn good fantasy season before an injury derailed his year. The Clown loves him, so he’ll get his touches. Bush is still magic with the football when he’s in space, he’s worth a pick in the 6th or 7th, where he’s being drafted. Addai might be good again this year, you never know, but it doesn’t seem like the Colts trust him much. That’s not a franchise that wastes early picks, and them taking a great all around college back in the 1st round doesn’t bread confidence in Addai. Still, Joseph is young and he’s had a couple pretty good years in a pretty potent offense – sounds like a buy low candidate to me. LenDale White can’t find love anywhere but here. You might think I just like fat running backs, but if you think LenDale is just a fat guy then you are an idiot. The guy can run the ball, always has been able to, and gets in the end-zone. This year he lost 20 lbs in the summer, and he’s in better shape than anytime in his career. Everyone can hate him, I’ll “round” off my Top 20 with his name. Ray Rice is in an interesting situation. The Ravens have put him as the #1, but you could argue that Le’Ron and Willis have shown better skills than Rice. Still, the Ravens see something, and they can pound the rock. Ray can compile the yards as a smart runner, a pretty good style for the Ravens offensive scheme. Felix Jones is amazing. If he stays healthy and gets the touches Dallas wants him to get, even this will be too low for his total output. But he’s a little-ish guy, and he has been hurt a few times. He’ll get a lot of TO’s touches though, so he’s definitely flex-worthy. Beanie Wells gets here on talent alone. He’s really big and really fast, which like I’ve said, is a recipe for injury. Still, he gets into a pretty nice offensive situation and should be able to beat out Hightower and his 2.8 YPC. Beanie is talented. Julius Jones might be an after-thought to everyone, but look at his stats, if you give him the ball 20 times he will do work for you. It happened in Dallas, and last year Seattle, and before both of those in Notre Dame. Julius is the unquestioned started in Seattle, and could prove to be a nice #2 for fantasy owners that take a chance on him. Willie Parker just keeps doing work. He won the job from Rashard Mendenhall (who I think is the better running in Pitt) last season, and put up pretty mediocre numbers while missing 5 games. His totals still project like a Top 25 back over 16 games, but I don’t think he’ll be the guy getting 20 carries next year, Rashard ruins some of Willie’s value. Cedric Benson is a nice story. He never figured it out in Chicago, but he found a home in Cincinnati last year, and cleaned up his act. That’s not how it usually goes, but give the guy two stars for swimming against the flow. Benson could benefit from Palmer being back in Tiger stripes, as his YPC and touchdown chances should go up this season.

VI

  1. Rashard Mendenhall (35)
  2. Jamal Lewis (36)
  3. Donald Brown (37)
  4. Darren Sproles (38)

Backups and Jamal Lewis. Lewis still isn’t “old” but he is old. Age doesn’t tell the whole story, but the guy has many miles on his tires. Still, Mangini has a decent offensive line in Cleveland, and Lewis is the guy that should get the ball. Not much to be scared of from Cleveland’s offense, unless they revert back to 2007, but Lewis should still be able to get over 1000 and 6 touchdowns as the #1 in Ohio. Mendenhall, who I have ranked just ahead of Lewis, is super talented. I thought him and J-Stew were the best backs in last year’s rookie class. He got hurt early, and couldn’t unseat Willie Parker prior to that, but he looked solid against one of the league’s best defenses (Baltimore) before they knocked him out for the year. Plus I really like him. If he gets the carries, he’ll be an epic steal on draft day. Donald Brown looks like a pro back to me, a solid one. Joseph Addai has never really impressed me as a runner. He’s still a rookie and he’s still a back-up, but you never know, and I’d like to have this guy just in case. Darren Sproles might have a case for being the more productive back in San Diego late last year. He certainly did more with his opportunity, and made himself a lot of money in the process. He’s still a back-up this season, and LT does it all, but Sproles might get enough love to be ownable all year long, as a back-up/flex – not just an injury replacement. Those are the best kinds of back-ups to own.

VII

  1. Fred Jackson (39)
  2. Leon Washington (40)
  3. Jerious Norwood (41)

Fred Jackson has done pretty good work when given the chance in Buffalo. This season he’ll get 3 games as the starter for the Bills, and if he succeeds in those 3 games, I don’t think the Bills can continue to give Lynch 85% of the carries. Jackson is a great late pick-up that could be a starting RB the first few weeks – plus he has nice upside. Leon Washington is obviously the back the Jets value more than any other. But Thomas Jones was a Top 10 fantasy back last season. It will be interesting to see what kind of touches Washington gets this year, but I’m guessing it’s more than he got last season. He’s always done well when give the chance, the problem is, this late, what kind of chance will he get? He’s a lot like Sproles, but Washington has a rookie QB or Kellen Clemmens as his signal caller – hello 8 man fronts. Jerious Norwood, a YPC machine and a guy that can take it the distance any time. He’s a great hand-cuff for Turner owners because he’s startable even as a back-up. I wouldn’t want in my starting line-up every week, but last year I was happy to have him on more than a couple occasions.

VIII

  1. Tim Hightower (42)
  2. Chester Taylor (43)
  3. LeSean McCoy (44)
  4. Ahmad Bradshaw (45)
  5. Willis McGahee (46)
  6. Le’Ron McClain (47)
  7. Fred Taylor (48)
  8. Sammy Morris (49)
  9. Michael Bush (50)
  10. Laurence Maroney (51)
  11. Shonn Greene (52)
  12. Justin Fargas (53)
  13. Ricky Williams (54)

Alright, this is my last list, and I’m putting them all in the same tier because I’m not so sure that I would be excited on having any of these guys on my team. Maybe the upside of McCoy, Ahmad Bradshaw’s chance at sure thing numbers when Jacobs gets hurt, Chester Taylor because he’s a very good back with a good O-line, even though he’s stuck behind one of the most physically talented backs in a long time, if not ever, and Tim Hightower, becaue there’s a good chance he’ll start. So maybe those four guys should all be in a different tier, but I have to be honest, they’re upside might not match up with the opportunity some of these guys will get. Willis still has talent, if he wasn’t in a little dog house behind two other backs, McClain does well with his touches, but doesn’t get much guaranteed to him. Fred Taylor has always put up numbers and might, just might be the #1 in New England, but that’s a team that I can’t predict carries for, so I wouldn’t want to rely on him. Sammy Morris, same thing as Fred. Plus Laurence Maroney is the guy I think is most talented. Michael Bush has all the tools and is a beast, but he’s behind a first round pick who has better tools, and another guy that has been productive as a starter, Justin Fargas. Shonn Greene is a rookie, and will probably be the thunder to Leon’s lightning next season, but I wouldn’t expect a ton from him this year. And then there’s Ricky Williams, what’s a running back list without Ricky? I think Ronnie Brown should get an even bigger portion of the load this coming season, really limiting Ricky’s stock.

That’s the list, hop that helps!

Ask Papa Weimer: 2009 #1

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Hey there, I’m back and at it again. If you know me, you can dig it – I’m an old SOB with a little bit of love for making a mockery of the game while giving help to the fantasy junkies out there. Once again I’ll be writing “Ask Papa Weimer” segments throughout the season based solely on your questions and comments during the year. Now, more than ever, is a busy fantasy time, and there’s lots of questions already coming in more than a month before the season starts. If you feel the urge, want a question asked, or feel like attempting to make a fool out of me anytime from now until the end of the season, do so by mailing your words to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – you ask I’ll answer, as easy as that. My good man David e-mailed me a bunch of questions, so I figured I’d have a nice “Owed to David” Q&A period. Here’s me doing work…

#1 – “I saw Lucky Lester’s article on the QBs: very interesting. If you had to get a good QB would you go after one of your first and 2nd tier guys, or would you wait? Last year you told me about Cutler, and he was great even with the interceptions. It seems you are high on Schaub. If I go after him as my #1 who should I get as a backup?”

If I had to get a top QB (First two tiers), I might shoot for Aaron Rodgers. That guy is legit and his offensive weapons are a plenty. Plus he plays the Lions and Vikings 4 times, and even the Bears aren’t awesome at stopping the air attack. Playing in GB late in the season didnt’ seem to bother him last year. But honestly, unless the value was right, I’d probably wait. I’ve never been a guy to grab a QB early. If I wasn’t going for a top tier guy, I think Matt Schaub and David Garard should both have big seasons, Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck are both high upside guys for where you can get them, even though Ryan is riding some hype – he doesn’t seem to be going too high. I wouldn’t overspend for him, but he could have a huge year. Remember, they’re still going to hand the ball off around 500 times, tough to pile up 300+ yard games with that being the case, but lots of weapons and lots of talent. If you’re going super sleepers, Sage Rosenfels, Jason Campbell, Daunte Culpepper, and Jake Delhomme could be steals. I think Jake will be better this year, a couple seasons after surgery, Daunte couldn’t have lost all his talent and they have a couple good offensive players to help him (CJ and Kevin Smith), Campbell will be better this year (that’s just a fact, kid has enough skills and now has a year in that offense unde his belt), and Sage (if he gets the job) has BB, Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor, and this little guy named Adrian Peterson to help him produce some offense. With all the focus of oposing defenses keying in on the run-game, Sage could put up some nice numbers.

#2 “I am in 2 leagues. One is a PPR and the other is traditional scoring. If you had to list 6 RBs and WRs that were a must have. Who would they be in each of the different formats. Also do you have any RBs or WRs that would be good values flying under the radar?”

6WRs – Must Have:
Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, and Roddy White (but he might be overvalued, and I like those top 5 more I think. I say this because there are so many weapons in Atlanta now, and with so many carries for Turner and Norwood, I think it might be tough for White to get as many looks as last season, but the kid is the real deal) – but for a couple must have lower level guys – Vincent Jackson, Dominek Hixon, Anthony Gonzalez – all three aren’t valued very high, and all three have a great chance to put up great numbers. Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings lose a little ground in PPR where Eddie Royal, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe move up a little. Reggie Wayne too. A super sleeper couple would go to Hines Ward (still nobody loves that guy, but so consistent) and even more sleepy, Josh Morgan, and even sleepier – Mike Thomas (but he might be too sleepy to draft, as he’s just a 4th round rookie, just keep your eye on him in jacksonville). Mike Walker might be a safer sleeper in Jax, very talented young player that has battled injuries much of his pro career – but next to Torry Holt he could be very sneaky good.

6RBs- Must Have:
Maurice Jones Drew, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton – I love LT’s value this year though, he might go in late round 1, or round 2, and he could be had at a good price in auctions – but I think he’ll be good, despite turning 30. Steve Slaton and Jones Drew could have huge years as key backs in their offenses, both teams will be improved this season. Slaton, Drew, and Forte all get raised value in PPR while AP and Turner lose some umph, but should be Top 5-6 picks anyway. Sleepers would go McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall – all 1st rounders last year, weird. I’ll throw Derrik Ward and Felix Jones into that list too, neither seem to be getting their due love. A couple rookies I like this year, (aside from Knowshon and Beanie of course) – LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown – solid runners, and Brown does everything well. A deeeeeeep sleeper, Justin Forsett in Seattle, real talented small back, so very different than Jones and Ducket, and from what I remember that new Seattle head guy knows how to use little talented backs to compile yardage.

#3 “How would you rank the following TEs  Olson, Z Miller, Carlson, D Keller, Cooley, Celek, Daniels?”

Cooley, Miller, Daniels, Olson, Carlson, Keller, and Celek…. Cooley is my favorite, but the next four guys are in a basic tie for 2nd. I wouldn’t waste a top pick on a top TE (Gonzo, Witten, Gates, Cooley – though Cooley is cheaper always) because those four guys (Miller, Daniels, Olson, and Carlson) are pretty damn consistent for their cheap draft slot.

#4 “Any defenses jump out at you this season?”

I like what the Bears did late last season, and Tommie Harris looks healthy – that guy is an absolute beast when healthy, a true game changer at DT. The Chargers should be better, too – and of course the Ravens are always legit. The Titans will keep doing work, but they lost some power up front. But don’t spend much on defenses, none look brilliant to me ala the old Bears or Ravens, and overspending on Ds can kill you.

#5 “I would like to hear your thoughts on LT, S Slaton, Grant, Ronnie and Donald Brown, Beanie, McFadden,  Barber, J Stewart, and Portis?”

Above I said that I love LT and Slaton this year, Ryan Grant and Ronnie Brown should be good values too. Ryan even more than Ronnie, more touchdowns and yards for Grant this year, almost a guarantee. Beanie is always an injury risk because he is a big guy that runs really fast, seems to spell trouble, but what an opportunity for him to shine in Arizona – he’s a much better option than 2.8 a game Tim Hightower. McFadden is a good sleeper as is The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, Stewart might just be the highest scoring fantasy back in Carolina this year, and considering how much later you can get him than DeAngelo, he could be a steal. I’m afraid about Portis, even though he’s still young, 27 going on  35 you know… But he seems to be slipping in drafts, so could be a good bargain. Marion Barber, a guy I love as a player as much as anyone in the league, but I’m not sure how many touches he’ll get. Still, with TO out that makes room for 140 or so targets, which should keep Barber in the action, and he’s a very good receiver too – maybe more catches for him this year – more touchdowns this time around for sure. Still, there’s 3 good backs in Dallas – but Barber should be top 10 in production amongst RBs.

#6 “I do appreciate the tiers. They help a lot! Don’t  let Lucky leave out Andre this year though… Haha.”

That youngster won’t get away with that this year – you’d think he was the old, saggy, frump-housed old man. Andre’s going to be right at the top if Lucky knows what’s best for him. Good luck to ya David!