Monthly Archives: November 2007

Week 11 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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For the 2nd week in a row, I was breaking out winners left and right – in both my free picks and my elite section. I finished 6-2-1 with my elite picks, and as you’ll soon see, I snagged 5 wins 2 loss and a tie in 7 games of free picks as well. Hope you profited off my winning ways! Here’s the review.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

It was a pretty easy cover. The Jaguars were up by a couple touchdowns, and Maurice Jones Drew was showing why 5’7″ guys can have power. He bulldozed his way in for a touchdown, and put Shawne Merriman on his can with a huge block that allowed David Garrard to throw his 2nd touchdown. The Jaguars showed that they were the better team, and they won the game by a touchdown. My first win was a big one.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: win
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Bodog)

“The Colts will still win, but the Chiefs defense is pretty solid, and Ty Law has been kryptonite to Peyton Super-Man-ing for some time now. I hope Priest has a big game, but either way, I think this one should be a low scoring closer affair.” (Me) Priest actually got hurt, which puts his career in jeopardy, and kind of puts a little bad feeling on this victory for me. The Colts needed a last second field goal to get this win, and they were obviously struggling for much of the game. The Chiefs played solid defense, but it wasn’t enough, as they fell 13-10. I hope Priest turns out okay, he has always been one hell of a player.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This game ended up being closer than I thought, but I still pulled out the big win. I’m pretty sure the Pack won by 14 when all was said and done. Green Bay killed the Panthers, though, as the game definitely wasn’t that close. Brett Favre is really playing some amazing football, and with Ryan Grant running hard, the offensive balance is fun to watch.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

This was a real tough game for me to call, and a late Redskin touchdown put this game on their side against the spread. The Cowboys ended up winning, but they needed 4 touchdown passes from Tony Romo to Terrell Owens to make sure. Jason Campbell played well for the Skins, and they came up a Hail-Mary short of winning this game. My first loss of the day! Darn it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+10): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

“I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in football, but after big wins they seem to take a step backward. Maybe it’s their comfort level with their new coach, or the feeling that they are unbeatable after a nice home stand. Either way, they struggle on the road, and struggle after big wins. They play a “seemingly easy opponent” this week, which leads me to believe that they’ll come out slow. Kellen Clemens opens up a lot of things for the Jets, and in his second game starting, he’ll be ready to attack the Steelers’ secondary. Big things. Big upset? I’m not so sure, but I’ll take the home team with 10 points.” Well, I can’t say I didn’t warn you guys. Prior to the game, the above quoted section is exactly what I wrote down for why I was taking the Jets. The Steelers came out slow, and it ended up killing them in the end. Plus, they lost Holmes and Polamalu for their next game against Miami. Does that mean that they’ll struggle against the Dolphins?

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3): loss
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I’m completely blaming Carson Palmer for this loss. Palmer threw 4 interceptions, against the Cardinals. Gross. They lost by a touchdown and a two point conversion, so take away any one of those picks, and the Bengals might have very well put this game into overtime. Two of the picks went back for touchdowns, which makes Palmer’s day even worse. He’s way better than he’s been playing. Bungles got me again!

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10): push
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

There were some late lines that had the Eagles at -9.5, and I hope you picked that up. If you were like me and got -10, then you pushed. If you had a book that was -10.5 or greater, you got hosed by yet another Donovan McNabb injury. Will that guy ever stay completely healthy for an entire season? Either way, this one pushed for me.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-1.5): win
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

Vince Young actually had a huge day, but the Titans couldn’t contain the Broncos precision passing attack (Cutler was 16-21 with 200 yards and a couple of long scores) and they gave up too many big plays (all 4 Bronco touchdowns were of 40 yards or more). Poor tackling and bad angles played a huge roll in this loss for the Titans, and I’m happy to say I was on the Broncos side this time around. It did make me happy to see Splinter call a timeout before Bironis’s field goal right before the half, have him miss it, then re-kick it, and make it. Interesting. I knew that would happen, and if I’m not mistaken, I predicted it might just happen to him. Anyway, 5-2-1 – Another solid winning day in the big house.

Free College Football Picks Week 13 – 2007

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Two weeks left, and I need to pick up the slack to do my damn thing. I have 5 featured games and 10 free picks overall with my 3rd straight week dealing out my 5 free dogs. Rock and roll em!

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 13

Virginia Tech Hokies (-3.5) @ Virginia Cavaliers:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Va-Tech has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two ACC programs. Also, The Hokies have absolutely dominated opponents since their unpredictable last minute loss at the hands of the Boston College Eagles. They killed Georgia Tech, FSU, and Miami in back to back to back games, and honestly, they just look a lot better than they were earlier in the season. I know Virginia wins a lot of football games, and plays tight with everyone, but I think the Hokies are just on another level in this one.

Tulane Green Wave @ East Carolina Pirates (-12):
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

I liked the Green Wave last week, and I took them for a victorious ride around the block, but East Carolina has too much offensive power for any sort of Greenish wave to stop. The Pirates are coming off a tough loss to Marshall on the road, and Tulane is all getty about their current two game winning streak (the first time they’ve won back to back games this season). I don’t see this one being close.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Kentucky Wildcats (-3):
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Vols lucked out big time when Vanderbilt new who they were, didn’t crown them, but left them off the hook nonetheless. Tennessee won their 4th straight, and they were lucky to do so. First of all, that’s too many wins in a row for the inconsistent Volunteers, and Kentucky hasn’t played great football in any of their last 3 games. That being said, I’m almost sure this thing will even out with a pretty big Wildcat win on Saturday.

Texas El Paso Minors @ Central Florida Knights (-19):
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

I have a feeling the Minors will fall victim for the 5th time in a row, and lose their 5th game against the spread in the their last 6 chances. Call me crazy, but the Knights can put up points with the best of them, and Texas El Paso, while they’ve managed more than a few close games, they haven’t played any good teams well. The Knights are good, despite their 64-12 loss to South Florida. What can I say? Every team has a bad game.

Florida Atlantic Owls (-11.5) @ Florida International Golden Panthers:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

The Golden Panthers wouldn’t win against Duke, and the Owls are actually a pretty good football team. While FAU hasn’t won many games by 12 points or more (1 to be exact) they also haven’t played a team even close to as bad as the Panthers. The Owls will toss 4 or 5 touchdown passes while the Panthers fall behind, only compounding their inefficiencies by throwing interceptions that result in more points for the Owls. It’s a tangled web they weave…

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Boise State Broncos (+3.5) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: (Friday)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: BetEd)

Wyoming Cowboys (+3) @ Colorado State Rams: (Friday)
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Utah Utes (+4.5) @ BYU Cougars:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: Belmont)

Connecticut Huskies (+17.5) @ West Virginia Mountaineers:
(Line: Wednesday, 6:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks (+3)

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Nov 18

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It’s Week 11, everyone gets their 10th game out of the way, a reader tells me that Buffalo is going to upset the Pats – that doesn’t go over real well.

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I think the A-Train will roll this weekend against a Patriots team that should be in a lull after their bye week – and Lee Evans is going to go off.  What do you think? Ken Westfall in Buffalo

I know Buffalo is the spot where running backs get drunk and get different girls preggers just for kicks, but I didn’t know that fans in Buffalo had a drinking problem too. A-Train isn’t a bad backup, but he’s not going to go off against New England, don’t get crazy now. And the last think on earth that’s going to happen is Lee Evans going nuts on the team that pretty much eliminates him from the offense everytime Buffalo comes to town. New England is the last team I’d like to play where they’re coming off a bye, because not only is their coaching super intelligent, but the group of players in New England is more football savvy than any other unit in the game. Patriots by 21 or more. Thanks for playing.

Hines Ward or Andre Johnson? Selvin Young or Earnest Graham? John Clayton or Sean Salisbury? – J. Dog in Florida

Andre Johnson, Earnest Graham, and by a forehead, Sean Salisbury. Johnson is the bigger upside receiver, and he’s supposedly 100% healthy, and Matt Schaub is back – did I mention they’re playing the Saints? Yhatzee! Selvin Young, even if he does start for sure, will be going up against a pissed off Titan team that finally allowed a 100 yard rusher last week at home. They’ll shut down the Broncos pretty well. Earnest Graham gets an Atlanta team that has won 2 straight, and chances of them winning three in a row are worse than Miami’s chances to win 3 games this season. And that leaves me to the dynamic ESPN duo. Clayton looks like he’s missing a piece of his head, and while Salisbury has some unrealistic confidence stemming from his time as an NFL backup’s backup, he still brings a player’s touch to arguments, and he has a full skull structure – huge bonus.

I’ve been playing fantasy football for three seasons, and this is the first one I’m not in 1st place by Week 11. Should I stick with Steven Jackson, Marc Bulger, and Tory Holt? Or should I make trades for those guys. Right now I could get Steve Smith for Tory Holt, and Adrian Peterson for Steven Jackson – what are your thoughts? Darrell Willis from South Florida

I would stick with the Rams. They don’t have a tough schedule, and I don’t like your trade options right now. Steven Jackson, assuming he stays healthy for the rest of the season, is still a threat to score often, as the Rams offense looks to be back. Having 3 guys on the same team isn’t always ideal, but all three of those guys have shown promise in the past and lately, so I like that option. Steve Smith can only be as good as the guys who get him the ball, which, quite honestly, doesn’t make him that good of an option. AP should be good in a couple weeks, but by then, you might be out of the picture. The Vikings have no reason to rush their best player back, so you shouldn’t have any reason to trade for him. Good luck!

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**

Week 12 College Football Picks Review: 2007

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A couple games under .500 this time around, this is how a half a point here, and a half a point there took me under the parallel bars.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Pick Review

Free Picks: Week 12

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Cincinnati Bearcats (+6): win
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

They didn’t quite get the win, but my 6 points were just enough to cover and get me a much needed NCAA win to start off my week. The Mountaineers were too fast offensively for Cinci when it came right down to it, and with a win, they kept a fat chance open for a National Championship run if the right dominoes fall.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-11.5): loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

So, I was wrong about Pittsburgh. I thought they’d mail it in after a loss to Navy, but they’ve played pretty well late in the season, including a close loss to the Knights on Saturday. Rutgers didn’t dominate like I thought they would, something that has happened once or twice already this season.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Kansas Jayhawks (-26): win
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: WSEX)

“The Cyclones are one of the worst teams in college football, despite playing well in a big game or two this season (close game against Oklahoma and a win over Iowa come to mind) but they have also absolutely sucked against superb offenses (which the Jayhawks definitely have).” The Cyclones continued their trend, and the Jayhawks once again dominanted a lesser opponent. It will be interesting to see what happens when they play the Tigers this coming weekend.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

This half point loss wasn’t what I needed. I thought the Wildcats would have too much of a passing attack for the Bulldogs, but in the end, Georgia’s pressure off the edge put the Wildcats in one too many long yardage situations, and Georgia won by 8.

Duke Blue Devils (+6) @ Notre Dame: loss
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

The dream died, and in quite possibly the game that decided the worst team in college football, the Blue Devils once again stepped up to prove that they were the proud owners of that Burger King Paper Crown. The Irish won big, and let me tell you, that will be the last time that happens this season.

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Maryland Terrapins (+7.5) @ Florida State Seminoles: loss (half point)
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+8.5): win
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Bodog)

Tulane Green Wave (+2) @ Rice Owls: win
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Northwestern Wildcats (+13.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini: loss
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Idaho Vandals (+34.5) @ Boise State Broncos: loss
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Two half a point losses turned what could have been a 6-4 into a 4-6. There’s always next week! A 3-2 record with my elite picks made me feel a little better, but 7-8 overall isn’t much to be excited about.

Free NFL Football Picks 07-08 Week 11

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Do work, Son! Week 11 and it’s time for the number’s equivalent in wins.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Jaguars are the better team here. They are the home team. And the only reason they aren’t favored by more is that they have absolutely no hype. Well, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew may not be LT, but the duo makes a damn good rushing attack. Also, David Garrard returns for the Jags, and the kid just doesn’t make mistakes. Also, the Chargers have a tough defense, but they aren’t the best against hard nosed physical offensive attacks. That’s what the Jags have. One more thing? The Chargers won last week against Indy, but they barely did. They got 6 interceptions given to them, and Sproles returned a kick and a punt for a touchdown, and they still needed Adam Vinitieri to miss a gimmie field goal to win the game. Doesn’t sound much like a killer instinct to me. I’ll take the Jags.

Kansas City Chiefs (+15.5) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Wednesday, 3:00pm EST: Bodog)

The Colts are missing a lot when Dwight Freeney isn’t in. He allows the team to get pressure without blitzing. He makes other pass rushers better, because he requires a double team, and special attention. Without him in the game, the Chiefs won’t have to game plan around an automatic speed rush from his side. The Colts will still win, but the Chiefs defense is pretty solid, and Ty Law has been kryptonite to Peyton Super-Man-ing for some time now. I hope Priest has a big game, but either way, I think this one should be a low scoring closer affair.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Packers are legit. They DE-Stroyed the Vikings last week, and shut down Adrian Peterson even before his injury. Defensively, the Packers have enough talent to keep them in any game. My only worry here is that the Panthers defense also steps up away from Carolina, seemingly feeding off the away crowd. Green Bay is a great place to play if you like that stuff. The main thing steering me away from Carolina is their quarterback play. They are either too young or too old at the position, and that leaves them hurting considering they need to get the ball to Steve Smith to win football games.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Washington Redskins are starting to show their real colors now. Dallas is a dominant force that will most likely find themselves dueling it out with the AFC’s best in the Super Bowl. This game is in Dallas, and I can’t think of one reason why the Cowboys would be slipping into this game with any sort of lull. They are just a win away from keeping pace with the Patriots team that they insist they are better than. Dallas is bigger, better, and wants to win more than the home team Redskins – that’s a recipe for a blowout.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (+10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

I think the Steelers are one of the best teams in football, but after big wins they seem to take a step backward. Maybe it’s their comfort level with their new coach, or the feeling that they are unbeatable after a nice home stand. Either way, they struggle on the road, and struggle after big wins. They nearly lost last week to the Browns, but pulled it out late. They play a “seemingly easy opponent” this week, which leads me to believe that they’ll come out slow. Kellen Clemens opens up a lot of things for the Jets, and in his second game starting, he’ll be ready to attack the Steelers’ secondary. Big things. Big upset? I’m not so sure, but I’ll take the home team with 10 points.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Bengals haven’t turned it around, don’t be confused. They still stink on defense, despite allowing just one touchdown last week, they still stink. Those were the Ravens, for god’s sake, they’re brutal. This week the Cardinals strong offensive attack comes to town, and they’ll have to put up points to win. Luckily, and the reason I’m taking the Bengals to cover, Chris Henry is back in action, and his speed and length gives the entire Bengal offense more room to run. He needs to be accounted for, and if you pay too much attention to any one of the three dynamic pass catchers in Cincinnati, the other two will hurt you. Look for the Bengals to get their rushing attack going as well, for the Cardinals defense isn’t half as good on the road as they are at home.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Eagles are back, but don’t tell anyone. More importantly, don’t tell them. As long as they think nobody respects them, they’ll come out and smack opponents in the mouth. Donovan McNabb looks healthier and healthier as the season goes forward, and Brian Westbrook is magic. More importantly, key defenders such as Mr. Dawkins, are getting healthy, and that makes the Eagles a scary team. The kicker here, though, is John Beck starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. If starting a rookie at quarterback doesn’t spell “building for next season” I don’t know what does.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-1.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 3:00am EST: Bodog)

The Titans aren’t as good as everyone believed after a very good start. Vince Young is struggling, and more than a few key players have been hurting for the Titans. The Broncos had a big week against the Chiefs last time around, and as I said last week, they seem to be building a stronger and more consistent team as the season moves forward. I like them this week, and expect a little run at the playoffs from the Broncos.

2007 Fantasy Football Review – Week 11

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This Week’s Top Team: Still going for 140+ – Damn! Just missed it, 138 points this week. Crapperoo!QB: Carson Palmer vs. Arizona: “Palmer is a very good and accurate quarterback” but apparently he forgot that on Sunday. 4 interceptions, 3 to one guy, and 2 returned for touchdowns. Needless to say, Palmer didn’t have a huge day. He did manage a couple touchdown passes and over 300 yards though, which gave him 17 fantasy points. It could have been so much better if he just stopped throwing the ball to Antrell Rolle.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Houston: LT’s 21 fantasy points rated him 2nd amonfst running backs. That’s what I like to see. Only Chester Taylor’s huge day one-upped the best running back in the game.

RB: Brian Westbrook vs. Miami: Westy didn’t score, but his 148 rushing yards still managed him 14 points for me. Not bad for a guy that went without a touchdown.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Cincinnati: 93 yards and a touchdown catch… Not to bad for one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers in the game. It was only the 7th best day for a receiver, but it was still a nice 15 point effort. I’ll take it.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Buffalo: “Randy hasn’t had a 3 touchdown day in a while, and I know the Patriots had a bye last week, but he’s probably pissed he didn’t get a TD during the off-week. I expect him to use the youthful secondary in Buffalo.” Would you consider 4 TDs and 128 yards using a defense? That’s what I’d call it. And I’ll take every single one of those 36 fantasy points.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. New Orleans: 54 yards and a touchdown. He was 3rd behind Cooley and Donald Lee, two guys who each caught a pair of scores. Still, Gates remains a threat even with Phillip Rivers’ down season under center. 11 points for Gates.

K: Neil Rackers vs. Cincinnati: Neil’s team put up tons of points against the Bengals, but my kicker bad luck followed him into the game, and his only points came off 5 extra points. Gross. He did miss a field goal. Sorry, Neil, I won’t pick you anymore.

D: Green Bay vs. Carolina: The Packers had a nice pooch punt return for a touchdown, and they put up 19 points while picking off the Panthers a few times with a couple sacks, and a fumble recovery. It was a good day to be a Packer fan.

LUCKY’S Week 11 SLEEPERS

Jeff Garcia: Garcia put up the 11th best fantasy day for quarterbacks, finishing ahead of Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Jon Kitna, Derek Anderson, Drew Brees and more. I’d give myself an A for this call, 18 points for Jeff.

Earnest Graham: 102 yards and a touchdown, that’s yet another consistent week from Earnest. That’s what I’m talking about! A

Chester Taylor: I don’t know what I can say, Taylor put 164 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, and had 30+ receiving yards. I hope you heeded my advice and used Taylor to get a big W this weekend. A++

Edgerrin James: 52 yards and a touchdown, the Edge just might be losing a step or two – in fact, he may “no longer have the edge”. Yeah, that was pathetic, but his 11 fantasy points were worth a C+

D.J. Hackett: Huge day for this kid. He’s a dandy, the best receiver on the Hawks squad. He was the 3rd best receiver catching a bunch of balls for 136 yards and a touchdown. 19 fantasy points – A+

Ike Hilliard: 1 catch, 14 yards = very bad day for Ike, very bad pick by Lucky – F

Todd Heap: Heap was out with vaginitas in his ankle – so I once against expected too much from the fragile Ravens tight end. F

Eagles: Held the Dolphins to 7 points – and that was a kick return. 0 offensive points given up by the Eagles D – They only put up 12 points, but I’ll take that for a team that was ranked in the bottom 6 teams in the league.

LUCKY’S Week 11 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Vince Young: VY had a huge day, 300+ yards for the first time ever, 70+ rushing yards, and a score on the ground and in the air – err – I missed this one by a couple hundred yards or so… F

Jamal Lewis: Lewis had an even better game against his old team this time around. Apparently he’s trying to prove something, and almost single handily willing his Browns to victory over the falling Ravens. F

Justin Fargas: Fargas was mediocre at best. He managed just 60 yards on 22 carries, but caught a few balls for 29 yards as well. His 8 points made him not a great start, but not the worst option either. I’ll take a C for this one.

Lee Evans: 4 fantasy points – 2 more than I figured from the extremely talented wideout. Evens got 40 yards on 4 catches, but needless to say, I was right about the Pats shutting the Bills’ star down. A

2007 Fantasy Football theRUNDOWN Week 11

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This Week’s Top Team: Still going for 140+ – not an easy feat, but if I do it right, it’s possible.

QB: Carson Palmer vs. Arizona: Palmer is a very good and accurate quarterback and the Cardinals defense doesn’t show up on the road. The Bengals haven’t gone off in a while, so I imagine it’s bound to happen this week in Cinci.

RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. New Orleans: Tomlinson is about do for a fantasy football Jesus game, and he’s going up against Houston. Good luck Texans, I’m sure Tomlinson is going to try to take his “best back in the league” crown back this week against you.

RB: Brian Westbrook vs. Miami: Westbrook is one of the 5 most dangerous offensive players in the league. He goes up against a very, very bad Dolphins defense this week at home in Philly. Westy killed it last week, and I expect a repeat in Week 11.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Cincinnati: Larry has been balling it up, and is on pace for just about 1400 yards and 7 touchdown passes. I believe he’ll eclipse both of those numbers, which means he has to have some huge games. Hold on to Larry’s superman cape, because he’ll take you to the fantasy promise land.

WR: Randy Moss vs. Buffalo: Randy hasn’t had a 3 touchdown day in a while, and I know the Patriots had a bye last week, but he’s probably pissed he didn’t get a TD during the off-week. I expect him to use the youthful secondary in Buffalo.

TE: Antonio Gates vs. New Orleans: Phillip Rivers has been bad, but he’s young, and I think he’ll pop back into his accurate throwing ways here late in the year. Gates will find wide open spaces in the Texans’ secondary, so expect a big game from him.

K: Neil Rackers vs. Cincinnati: Is there anyway he’ll have less than a couple field goals and extra points against Cincinnati? I sure hope not, but knowing my kicker luck, he’ll go 0-2 and get maybe one extra point. Damn kickers!

D: Green Bay vs. Carolina: The Packers are a very good young defense that forces turnovers, shuts down the run, and causes good things to happen for their team. The Panthers are brutal in all those areas offensively. Good match-up, big points.

LUCKY’S Week 11 SLEEPERS

Jeff Garcia: The Falcons have won 2 straight, and they are way too poor of a team to win 3. That being said, I imagine Jeff will have one of his big days to lead the Bucs in a must win game for the NFC South leader.

Earnest Graham: Believe it or not, I also like Graham against the Falcons. Grady Jackson’s been cut, and he was a key run stuffer for the Falcons. I think the Bucs will out pass and muscle the Falcons.

Chester Taylor: Starting in AP’s place, Taylor walks right in to a pretty favorable match-up. The Raiders aren’t tough against the run, and they aren’t good enough to limit Taylor’s touches. Chester is no Peterson, but he’s definitely good enough to torch the Vikings behind his stellar offensive line.

Edgerrin James: Edge hasn’t done big things lately, but he’s consistent, and consistency goes a long way against the Bengals.

D.J. Hackett: Finally healthy, and in my opinion, the best receiver in Seattle. With that new throw it often approach, he should post good numbers for the rest of the season, with Deion Branch in or not.

Ike Hilliard: It’s something I never thought I’d say, but Ike is probably a good play this week against Atlanta. Opposite Joey Galloway, Ike will get the 2nd corner and he’ll do enough to justify a play if you’re in a pinch.

Todd Heap: What a crappy offense. But with Boller, at least the Ravens will have a shot to get some offense going. Yes, Steve McNair has been that bad. Heap should be back to 100% or close, and that should be enough to get 60+ yards and maybe even a score.

Eagles: Can the Dolphins put up points on the Eagles? Maybe with Cleo Lemon in, but not with new starter John Beck. He’s still raw, and word out of Miami is that he hasn’t looked good in practice. That means good things for Eagle owners, and if they’re on the free agent list, pick them up for a big week.

LUCKY’S Week 11 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)

Vince Young: He has to be benched, in my opinion, even against a less than stellar Broncos team. His passing has been poor, and overall, his touchdowns are just too low to play him.

Jamal Lewis: Lewis goes up against the Ravens, and this time they won’t allow any touchdowns, I can all but guarantee it. Expect very little from this former Raven.

Justin Fargas: Fargas has put together a couple good games, but a week after the Vikings were torched on the ground at the hands of Ryan Grant and the Packers, they will be pissed, and most likely dominate anything the Raiders run at them.

Lee Evans: As talented as he is, the Patriots know how to eliminate him from the game. It’s obvious, but sit JP Losman, too. I almost get the feeling that the Bills kept Losman in there just so they could see him fail and put Edwards back in next week. Do NFL teams really do that? Maybe I’m seeing too much conspiracy theory.

Week 10 NFL Picks Review: 2007

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“We finally get into the double digits, and if you know my game, this is where I start making up for any early season blunders.” How’s 7-0 for a start to the double digit weeks? Check in next week as I try to continue my run to the fortune 100… Here’s my review.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) @ Tennessee Titans: win
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Jaguars just imposed their will on the Titans, and some of it probably had to do with Albert Haynesworth being out of the game. However, the Jags just wanted this one more, and it came down to losing the season opener on their own home-field against these very Titans. These teams are so even that the little things, like redemption, are so important going into a game like this. The Jags won, and I won big.

Denver Broncos (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs: win
(Line: Wednesday, 10:00pm EST: SBG Global)

“From the sound of it, the Broncos are ready to play up to their potential. Denver has been down for most of the year, despite one game against the Steelers, and they very well could have lost that game. Anyhow, Denver has the talent to compete with the best, and I think they’ll put the Chiefs away with relative ease at Sunday’s game in Kansas City.” This was definitely a pretty easy win for the Broncos. Selvin Young filled in nicely for Travis (THC) Henry and Jay Cutler did enough of his thing for the Broncos to get the W. However, the key in this game was the Broncos defense, a unit that finally stepped up when they needed to.

St. Louis Rams (+13.5) @ New Orleans Saints: win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: 5Dimes)

“Honestly, I don’t think the Rams will need half this many points, but I’ll take all 13 and a half of them from 5Dimes. I think the Rams could pull the biggest upset of the week by finally notching their first win against a Saints’ team that comes in with way too much hype for what they’ve accomplished thus far. What have they done? After 4 straight losses, they have a good 1st half against one of the more schizophrenic teams in the NFL (Seattle) and hold on to beat them by 11. Then they sneak by Atlanta (22-16) and probably would have lost if Leftwich hadn’t been hurt (he was torching the Saints’ secondary, believe it or not) and then they beat a terrible San Francisco team in Alex Smith’s first game since his injury, and the game was very close in Jacksonville last week (despite the 41-24 score), and Quinn Gray was calling plays for the Jaguars. Honestly, I think a lot of people are going to lose their survivor pools by taking the Saints in this one.” Yes sir! You have to admit, when I call ’em, I definitely call ’em… The Saints took a lot of survivor hopefuls out when they came in playing like sour piss on their home field. They didn’t knock me out of my survivor pool – but the Colts did – suckers. Well, a win for me here, and a perfect analysis, has me feeling pretty smart.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Washington Redskins: win
(Line: Monday, 7:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

“Now that everyone thinks the Eagles are completely lost without a chance of every returning or becoming part of any sort of playoff picture, I think they’ll play a lot better. Regardless of what Andy Reid thinks, his problems have effected the team, and questions surrounding Donovan McNabb have also been swirling. All those things are pretty meaningless now that everyone and their mother thinks the Eagles are done.” I’m telling you, watch out for the Eagles, until people start talking about them making the playoffs, then they could struggle. I still think the Eagles are good enough to compete with the best in the East, and they’ll have a couple games to prove themselves moving forward. This was a huge win for the Eagles, McNabb, and Andy Reid.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: win
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)

The Bengals kicked a bunch of field goals and never scored one single touchdown, but they still easily beat the Ravens 21-7. Seven field goals… Gnarly. Cincinnati took advantage of the Ravens’ offense absolutely sucking. Yeah, that could be the worst unit in football. Chris Henry did play for the Bengals, as he came right in and led the team in receiving with 99 yards. Do I think the Bengals can fight their way back into the playoff picture? No chance – but they are definitely good enough to outscore the Ravens – that we’ve learned.

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Oakland Raiders: win
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

I hope you didn’t fade the public in this one. The Raiders couldn’t do much in any facet of their offense, and the Bears, behind Rex Grossman (yes, you heard that correctly) no tched a road win in Oakland. Benson didn’t impress me much, rushing for only 76 yards on 29 carries (that’s a gross average, just trust me) but he did enough, and Rex Grossman completed a deep pass to Bernard Berrien for a big score to put a fat stainless steel nail in the coffin. Justin Fargas had another solid game for the Raiders, but Josh McCown was pretty much useless, completing just over half his passes for 108 measly yards and an interception. The Bears went to 4-5 with a 17-6 win, making me 6-0 on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-10): win
(Line: Monday, 3:00am EST: Bookmaker)

The Hawks looked good in their initial phasing out of Shaunna Alexander, shutting down the 49ers to the tune of 24-0. The game wasn’t close, and the Hawks didn’t have to score much in the 2nd half to put this game out of reach, so the over wasn’t reached. The Hawks dominated this game from the moment Alex Smith missed a wide open Darrell Jackson streaking down the right side of the field for a sure touchdown. After that, it looked like the 49ers were lost. Frank Gore, who many have said had a bad game, rushed only 13 times for 73 yards – which doesn’t seem to bad to me. What I do know is that the 49ers are always behind, which limits their ability to use Frank.

Free College Football Picks Week 12 – 2007

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After a .500 mark in Week 11, the 12th week of the NCAA Football Season is starting down the path of success. I looked early and love some lines, but thinking they would move in my favor the closer we get to Saturday’s action, I waited some big games out. Some of my line movement predictions held true, and some stayed the same, but I think I have a nice card this weekend. Here they are, from favorites to dogs, big conference games, and little meaningless games that will prove to be big winners. Here are my free picks for week 12.

LUCKY LESTER’S Free NCAA Football Picks

Free Picks: Week 12

West Virginia Moutaineers @ Cincinnati Bearcats (+6):
(Line: Thursday, 2:00am EST: SBG Belmont)

I like the Bearcats to pull yet another Big East upset here. I think these teams are a lot closer than many people think, and that will show on Saturday. The Bearcats play well at home, and are just a flat out speedy team that will match up well with West Virginia.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-11.5):
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

Pittsburgh has really surprised me a few tiems this season, and beating an absolutely horrendous Syracuse team (20-17) a couple weeks ago wasn’t one of those times. The Panther’s win over Cincinnati is probably the most amazing thing I’ve encountered this season. See, I thin the Panthers are terrible – hence they lost to Navy, got beat by 30 at Virginia, and 3 of their 4 wins came against Navy, Grambling, and Eastern Michigan. I just think the Scarlet Knights are too good everywhere on the field for Pittsburgh to hang around. I know they’re young, and getting more mature late in the season, but that team will get embarrassed by their Big East foe from New Jersey.

Iowa State Cyclones @ Kansas Jayhawks (-26):
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: WSEX)

The Cyclones are one of the worst teams in college football, despite playing well in a big game or two this season (close game against Oklahoma and a win over Iowa come to mind) but they have also absolutely sucked against superb offense (which the Jayhawks definitely have). Todd Reesing (KU’s QB) has 26 TD passes and only 4 interceptions, and Kansas has been even more amazing at home this season, outscoring opponents 52-7, 62-0, 45-13, 55-3, 58-10, and 76-39. I know those opponents have been brutal, but what’s the difference between one of those terrible foes and the Cyclones? They are all bad. Look for Kansas to get their 11th win and easily stay undefeated.

Kentucky Wildcats (+7.5) @ Georgia Bulldogs:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: Belmont)

The Wildcats have been solid on the road, 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS. They are, in my opinion, the more balanced team, and have more consistency all over the field. Kentucky has lost 3 of their last 5 games, but wins over LSU and at Vanderbilt have allowed the Wildcats to keep on keeping on. They’ve only lost two games by more than 8 points, and consistently press the offensive action until opposing defense crumble. The Wildcats have scored less than 23 points once all season long, while Georgia has been held under 26 points 4 times this season. I think this game is too much of a toss up to ignore the chance to get the Wildcats as more than a touchdown dogs. I think last week’s dumping of Auburn will actually work against the Bulldogs in this game.

Duke Blue Devils (+6) @ Notre Dame:
(Line: Wednesday, 11:00pm EST: BodogLife)

I never thought I’d be taking Duke to beat the Fighting Irish, but there’s not much fighting about these Irish kids. The whole team is crumbling, and the coaching staff is being questioned on every decision, recruiting blunder, and crushing loss. Think how terrible this loss would be for the Irish. A loss to the Duke Blue Devils is crushing for any program, but one as grand as the historic Notre Dame Fighting Irish? Two losses to military schools and a home loss to Duke – yes, this could be a mystical seasons for those anti-Irish guys.

Five Free Dogs to Walk!

Maryland Terrapins (+7.5) @ Florida State Seminoles:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+8.5):
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Bodog)

Tulane Green Wave (+2) @ Rice Owls:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Northwestern Wildcats (+13.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Idaho Vandals (+34.5) @ Boise State Broncos:
(Line: Thursday, 4:00pm EST: Belmont)

Ask Papa Weimer Fantasy Football Know-It-All Nov 11

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It’s Week 10, and just like every other season, there’s a couple guys that have witnessed that one asshole, who is 6th in the league in total points, go undefeated thus far. It’s painful, I know, but something we all have to deal with as fantasy football team owners. And to answer your question, no, don’t have that guy “taken care of” his mediocre team will fall apart like Britney Spears at a frat party. Just have a drink and watch the imploding happen.

Drop me your Fantasy Questions @ papaweimer50@hotmail.com

I’m getting killed with Steven Jackson and Frank Gore, a running back tandem that I thought would lead me to the promise land. Now I have LenDale White and Kevin Jones as backups, so I’m not out of the playoff picture. This week, which two would you start amongst those 4 runners? – Brunson Carlson in Kansas

BC – I’d go with Steven Jackson and Frank Gore (if the injury report guarantees the young Miami product will start). If there’s questions surrounding Gore going into Sunday, I’d take a chance on Kevin Jones. In fact, how about just going with KJ. I love Gore’s game, and he kills the Seahawks, but Jones is more of a sure thing seeing as though he’s healthy, and the Cardinals haven’t been the most dominant run defense this season. White is going against Jacksonville, and I’m pretty sure the Jags will slow that rushing attack and beat the Titans. Anyhow, the safe bet is Jackson and Jones, with an upside pick with risk being Frank Gore. It all depends what you need. If it looks like you’ll need big games, maybe take the chance on Gore, but if you think some sure thing points will get you the W – roll with KJ.

Papa, I have a good problem this week, I have a log-jam at receiver and don’t know who to start. My handful of WRs looks like this – Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, Plaxico Burress, Braylon Edwards, and Hines Ward – which 3 would you give the starting nod to? – J. Dog in Florida

Wow! You must be having a pretty good season, and absolutely running the league in a point per reception league. Anyway, I like Evans against Miami, because their defense is terrible, and he is one of the fastest game breakers in the league – but he is definitely a hit or miss receiver – you get huge games and 2 catches for 23 yard games. I’d lean toward huge, and he’ll most likely finish in the Top 3 of your 5 candidates – but he’s not the safest bet. Edwards has the toughest match-up, but I think the Browns will be throwing a lot, and Edwards is definitely an elite talent, so I think he’ll have a decent day in a loss to the Steelers. But I think your safest three picks are TO, Plaxico, and Ward. Ward is always decent grabbing enough balls for 80 yards and a score or two against a bad Browns secondary. Owens and Burress should both play a huge roll in an expected shootout in New York – and both are great big play threats and should get plenty of looks this Sunday. If I were you, I’d probably start Evans, Burress, and Edwards – but any combination of that log jam should stop the river.

I’m in a league where you get to keep 2 players, but nobody in the first 3 rounds. Also, next season you lose one draft pick ahead of where you drafted them. For some dumb reason, I have to decide next week. Here’s my top 4 candidates and the rounds I will lose in next season’s draft- LenDale White 10th, Braylon Edwards 6th, Derek Anderson 15th, and Randy Moss 3rd – which two would you take? William Crumpler in Cleveland

Bill, you have a tough couple decisions to make. All are great options for your format, and you have to be in a hurting seeing as though you have to make the choice next week. Ideally, I’d rather see Randy complete the season and resign with the Patriots, or some other team with a great quarterback, before I used the keeper option on him, but he is definitely your best player. However, I think Braylon Edwards has just as much upside, and a chance to be great, for 3 rounds less than Moss. But Edwards has his question marks too, and they rest with Derek Anderson’s future in Cleveland. He’s been great, better than anyone person expected, but with Brady Quinn getting paid, and Anderson possibly deserving a new and upgraded contract, it will be interesting to see how long the Browns’ brass sticks with Anderson. Either way, I still think Edwards is your guy. LenDale White has had a very productive season for the Titans, and for a low 10th round pick, he might be a great option for you. However, the Titans have liked Chris Henry and Chris Brown. I personally like White’s upside, and costing you just a 10 should be great. I’d stay away from Anderson, if only because of the questions, and the fact that he’s a quarterback and you will have plenty of options to pick a decent one of those up in next season’s draft. I think Edwards is a sure thing keeper, he’s a Top 10 TE, and you’re only wasting a 6th round pick for him. Now it’s between Moss and White, and while I’d be surprised if Moss went searching for a big check away from New England, he could, because he’s Randy, and who knows what he’ll do. I’d still take a chance on Randy – you lose a 3rd round pick, but you keep two of the games best receivers, and you will surely have plenty of options at running back in the first two rounds of the draft. However, I’d understand taking White – because you won’t be able to get a solid starting running back anytime after Round 5 – so that’s great value. Tough decisions, I’d go with the two receivers. Good luck.

Last Weeks Questions

Papa Weimer – **52 y/o – two open Heart surgeries and a nasty attitude**