Monthly Archives: October 2005

Free NFL Picks 05-06 Week 5

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Home Alone!Is it possible that the away teams will win 12 of 14 games this week? I sure hope so. I’ve taken the underdog in eight games and the away team in twelve. These are both season highs for me, so get ready for a season high in the win column. After another week of mediocrity (7-7) I’m primed for a big breakout performance that will bring me up and over the .500 plateau. An epic home team disaster is on the way. Don’t drink and drive!

Chicago @ Cleveland (-3) – The Bears and Browns were both off in Week 4. Many are saying the bye week will help Kyle Orton get used to the NFL, but I’m here to say that won’t happen. All a bye week does for a rookie is allow him to think more about his mistakes. Kyle will do much better when he gets into the swing of things and doesn’t have enough time to think about anything, just play football. Trent Dilfer has been very accurate for the Browns, and he’ll need to continue that if he wants to win his first home game in a Browns uniform. The Browns will find it tough to dent the Bears powerful defensive unit, but big mistakes by the Bears will allow Cleveland to pull it off late. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

New Orleans (+3) @ Green Bay – The Packers shouldn’t be favored against anybody. The Packers can’t do just enough to beat me this week, as they can’t make me lose without winning the game. God knows they’re not prepared to do that. My good friend lives in Green Bay, and he told me “I’ve never see more grown men cry than when the Packers got beat by the Browns in Lambeau.” Tears should continue to poor like the Fox River as Joe Horn will come back from injury and terrorize Al Harris and the Packer secondary. Look for Aaron Brooks to have his biggest statistical game of the year as the Saints upset the Pack. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

Tampa Bay (-3) @ New York Jets – The Buccaneers got lucky against Detroit last week. Marcus Pollard’s knee supposedly went out of bounds before he controlled the ball and Mike Williams’ right pinky toe nicked the left sideline in the end zone as the Buc’s literally won by an inch. But you take them when you can get them, and everyone and their mother knows, this is the time to take them from the Jets. Cadillac Williams is bruised and possibly out for this game, but back up runner Michael Pittman is no slouch. The Jets will have their hands full, with or without Carnell in the lineup. Look for Joey Galloway to make more big-plays as Tampa Bay takes out the Jets in New York.
Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

Seattle (+3) @ St. Louis – The Seahawks never win in St. Louis. Hell, the Hawks never beat the Rams no matter where the game is played. Little known fact, the Rams are always out to surprise their viewers. Last week they got destroyed by the New York Giants, but the Rams always play well at home. Ha! That’s what they want you to think. Don’t let them fool you. They will lose to Seattle this week. There’s no question in my mind. Shaun Alexander will rush for over 100 yards without much of a defense to get in his way. When Shaun does that, the Seahawks win big. Take the Hawks to win their first game against the Rams in over a year. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

New England @ Atlanta (-3) – Wait until right before kickoff to take this bet. If Mike Vick isn’t suiting up for the Falcons, the Patriots at +3 is a pretty damn good bet. If Vick is starting, take the Falcons in a landslide. The Falcons defense has really stepped it up, and the Patriots aren’t as sharp as they once were. But that’s not where this game is going to be won and lost. The Falcons possess the leagues best rushing attack by far. Even without Vick, the Falcons have a shot because the Patriots haven’t been able to stop the run all year. They won’t be able to hold the three headed monster in Atlanta (Vick, Dunn, and Duckett) When the Patriots lose this game, they will be 2-3. I won’t say I told you so! Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

Miami (+3) @ Buffalo – The Dolphins are a better football team than I expected. On the eve before the return of Ricky Williams, the Dolphins will go into Buffalo and beat a wounded Bills squad. Wounded by the loss of Takeo Spikes, and wounded like the Ducks that JP Losman throws every other play. Nick Saban has done wonders for this Dolphin team, and he’ll continue to wow us as he takes the Dolphins to 3-1. Right now the Dolphins are leading the AFC. Can they keep it up? They can in Week 5! Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

Baltimore (+1.5) @ Detroit – The Lions played well enough to win last week against the undefeated Buccaneers, but luck wasn’t on their side as they fell inches short of victory, not once but twice. Joey Harrington played well against a very good Tampa Bay defense. Can he replicate or one up his performance in week 5? I’m guessing NO. The Ravens defense finally showed up to play as they limited the Jets to three whole points. Baltimore’s offense isn’t worthy of much more than a victory in Detroit, but that’s exactly where they play this week. Take the Ravens to outlast the Lions for their second win in a row. Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

Tennessee (+3) @ Houston – The Titans were humiliated by the Colts. They’ll get used to that sooner than later. Lucky for them they play the winless Houston Texans in Week 5. Look for Steve McNair to get some time to throw, feeding the ball to Drew Bennett for Drew’s first 100 yard game of the year. Chris Brown will also get a chance to shine against an average Texan defense. This will be a tight game, as the Texans proved last week that they aren’t a complete waste of an NFL Franchise. The Titan defense will force David Carr in to his customary mistakes, leaving room for McNair to put early points on the board. Take the Titans by a couple in this minor upset.
Game Date: 10/09/05 13:00 ET

Indianapolis (-14.5) @ San Francisco – The Colts weren’t bashful when showing the Titans that their offense is still quite powerful. Don’t expect them to take it easy on the banged up 49er defense that gave up nearly 400 yards to Joshy Woshy McCowen in Mexico on Sunday Night. Petyon Manning… Josh McCowen… Hmmmm… I’m sure the 49ers are excited to throw their crazy blitz packages at Peyton. The Colts might take the over by themselves. I wonder if the Niners will wait until next year to let Alex Smith meat Dwight Freeney? The Colts might very well match the Falcons nine sacks against Minnesota. Either way, there will be plenty of room for both Peyton’s offense and Dwight Freeney’s defense to showcase their talents as the Colts will upend the Niners in epic proportions.
Game Date: 10/09/05 16:05 ET

Carolina (-2.5) @ Arizona – The Panther’s almost let a very important victory slip away to the Second-Half-Packers on Monday night. Luckily for them they pulled it out by the gray hairs on Brett’s chinny, chin, chin. That should have been a wake up call to John Fox and his club. Whether the Panthers like it or not, they need to get the ball to Deshaun Foster more. Steven Davis gets tough yards, but there were too many instances when Davis was just a touch to slow to get the big gain. Look for Jake Delhomme to do what the Niners couldn’t and exploit Arizona’s young secondary.
Game Date: 10/09/05 16:15 ET

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas – The Eagles are much better than the tumbling Cowboys. Dallas hasn’t done jack after beating the Chargers in week 2. That’s right, I barely count that win over the 49ers. This week Terrell Owens will make the Dallas Cowboy secondary look like a flock of JP Losman’s wounded ducks. Donovan McNabb should have another huge night against a Dallas defense that has a hard time stopping their scout team. Brian Westbrook will find room to run when the Cowboys drop their linebackers to defend McNabb. Julius Jones might have himself a good first half, but being down by two touchdowns at half never helps a running back’s numbers. This game won’t be close. Take the Eagles in an easy one.
Game Date: 10/09/05 16:15 ET

Washington (+7.5) @ Denver – The Redskins played well at home against the Hawks last week. This week they go into Denver to play the Lucky-screwing Broncos. I have to be honest, Denver is overachieving. Mark Brunell was efficient last week against Seattle. He’ll continue in Denver. This week the Redskins will make Jake Plummer beat them, and that won’t happen. Shawn Springs and the Redskin rookie, Rogers, are both solid on the corner. With old-man Rod Smith and drop-it-often Ashley Lelie at wide receiver, the Broncos will be sledding uphill in Mile High. Take the Redskins and all those points in Denver. Game Date: 10/09/05 16:15 ET

Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Jacksonville – The Bengals are a good team that is riding the wave of confidence coming out of Cincinnati. The Jaguars were humiliated by the Broncos in Jacksonville last week. This is a hard one for me, because I love what Byron Leftwich brings to the quarterback position. But his team’s inability to run the ball will catch up to them again when the tough Bengal defense comes to Jacksonville. Look for Carson Palmer to have a big day through the air with Donovan Darius out of the Jaguar lineup. This will be a tight one, but the Bengals will pull out a minor upset in Jacksonville.
Game Date: 10/09/05 20:35 ET

Pittsburgh (+3) @ San Diego – I’m taking the away team in this Monday Night Showdown. The Steelers had two weeks to prepare for the best running back the NFL has to offer. They won’t shut Ladainian Tomlinson down, but they’ll make him work harder than the Patriots did a week ago. Don’t be surprised if LT goes Week 5 without a touchdown. The Steelers are very tough on Defense, and they’ll be out to prove something after a big loss at home to New England in Week 3. Big Ben Roethlisberger will have a better day in San Diego, tossing touchdowns to Hines Ward while pulling off a minor upset against the streaking Chargers. Game Date: 10/10/05 21:05 ET

A NUMBERS BET
Seattle (+3) @ St. Louis – The Rams have lost to the spread in 8 of the last 11 games they’ve been favored. Seattle has lost their last three games against the Rams. Who will win out? Take the Hawks. They’ve proved to be a more balanced team this year, and they’ll out-dual the Rams in St. Louis.

Big Bet of the Week
Washington (To Win) (+280) @ Denver – The Broncos are overachieving as are the Redskins. The Redskins have a decent rushing attack and a decent passing attack. The Broncos have a decent rushing attack and Jake Plummer at quarterback. That’s the difference. The Broncos won’t be able to throw all their marbles into stopping the run like the Redskins will. Denver will fall from their 3-1 pedestal. Take the big money!
WAGERING SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN

Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks

2005 Week 4 NFL Pick Review

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Right on Upsets, Even Overall;
If it wasn’t for the Packers’ ability to do just enough to lose and still take my money, I would have been 8-6 on the week. As it stands, I played par pick-em, 7-7. I picked the huge upset in New England, and Philly’s domination of the Chiefs. I took my fourth Monday Night strike, looking of course, as Brett Favre and the Packers decided they wanted to play with about 11 minutes left in the game. 0-4 on Monday’s, I can’t believe it… that’s usually my money game. Next week, Monday’s mine… as for now, admire my week 4 heroics and shun my follies.

Buffalo at New Orleans (E) – I hit this one right on the forehead. The Saints didn’t play masterful ball, but the Bills can’t put enough together with Losman running the show. Until he sits, or figures it out, don’t bet a bundle on Buffalo.
Denver at Jacksonville (-4) – The Broncos took me out for the second, no, third straight week. After crapping the bed against Miami in week one, the Bronco’s are 3-0, with wins against some pretty good teams. Jacksonville was held to 12 yards rushing. I don’t care who you are, Dan Marino and the fire it down field Dolphins, you can’t win football games with 12 yards rushing. Jake Plummer’s photograph for introductions is the filthiest thing I’ve ever seen. Damn them Broncos!

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-7) – Not only did Detroit play well, they almost took down the undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Joey Harrington had two almost-touchdown passes in the final seconds as Marcus Pollard and Mike Williams each stepped out of bounds by an inch in the end zone on consecutive passes. Which team are the Lions? Are they the 17-3 winners over Green Bay in the opener and the near winners at Tampa? Or, are they the 34-10 losers to the Bears? Like Harrington, I think they will differ from week to week. This week they tricked me good in week 4. What can you say, I thought they were the Lions who played the Bears.

Houston at Cincinnati (-9.5) – The Bengals couldn’t even pull off a win for good Ol’ Lucky. The Bengals won the game, going to 4-0, but couldn’t score enough to even me out at 2-2 early. In fact, this win (but loss for me) marked the second game the team I picked didn’t win by enough. This was a theme all weekend. The Texans showed life, and did their best to end mine. 1-3 isn’t a nice start.

Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee – “This week should mark another close contest right? No chance. I’m sure Peyton Manning is sick of all the “Where’d Peyton go?” talk that’s circulating. I’m expecting a huge week from Manning and the rest of the Colt offense. The Titans don’t have the fire power to play with the Colts.” (me) This is exactly what happened. Chris Brown didn’t play well for the Titans. The Colts D is too good right now. Manning had 4 touchdown passes, two to My Favorite Marvin. This is a scary thing for the rest of the league, as Peyton and his offense look to be back to their old tricks.

San Diego (+5.5) at New England -. “I don’t think the New England defense, minus their starting linebackers from a year ago, minus their best defensive player Rodney Harrison, will be able to stop Antonio Gates or the leagues best running back, Ladainian Tomlinson. I think LT just remembered what it’s like to dominate at the highest level. I think he’s going to continue to dominate. I think the Chargers are going to upset the defending Champs in New England. I think Jessica Biel is hot. Take the Chargers.” (me) What can I say, sometimes my genius comes out in a brilliant output of precise predictions. The Chargers scored over 40 points for Rodney’s sake. The Chargers made me big bucks as I took them to win, plus they got me back to 3-3.

Seattle (+2) at Washington – Are the Redskins really good enough to be 3-0? I don’t think so, but they are definitely 3-0. I looked it up on NFL.com just to be sure. Mark Brunell? He’s damn near fifty. The Skins offense looked solid against Seattle. When the Seahawks don’t get a solid game out of Alexander, they struggle to survive. (In two wins this season Shaun has rushed for about 140 yards… In two losses, he hasn’t gotten close to the century mark) So, I’ve learned to be wary of taking the Hawks against ferocious front sevens like the Redskins have. Unfortunately I needed this game to show me that.

St. Louis (+3) at N.Y. Giants – I should have gone with my gut. The Rams got me again, those sly bastards. Eli Manning matched his brothers 4 touchdown mark with a 4 spot of his own. These New York Giants are showing me more than I had expected of them. Is Eli this good already? I know he was good enough to take my money this week. The Giants blasted the constipated Ram team that played as if they were sitting on the toilet all morning.

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-7) – See my week 4 prediction article for a complete analysis of what happened in this game. It was another moment of genius in an otherwise .500 week.
Dallas at Oakland (-3.5) – “Dallas doesn’t have the testis to take down the Raiders in Oakland.” Haha. It was my good old buddy, Drew Bledsoe back to save my ass in week 4. He played like the Drew I’ve learned to love. One play Drew must have thought he was Mike Vick or something because he saw a blitzing linebacker and starter running away from him like he was going to make it. Fooled him. He got sacked for like the 6th time, and the Cowboy’s spiraled downward. Still, it came down to the last play of the game. Drew dropped back, when he finally set his turtle hooves ten seconds later, he threw a low and short pass to Terry Glenn. It nearly bounced to the goal line, and the Raiders came out victorious. Oh, Drew, where have you been all season? Back to .500 with a Cowboy loss.

Minnesota (+6) at Atlanta – Baby Hands was back in fine fashion against the Falcons, accounting for three turnovers in week 4. Thumb tacks Pep. Take some tape, wrap your fingers, but put tacks on the ends so you can hold on to that ball a little later. (My flag football referee taught me that this weekend) It should help. Either that or light a fire under your offensive line’s asses so they block for you for longer than a second. Mike Vick was limited to one quarter of play, as he re-injured his hammy, but the Falcons did just fine without him. Warrick Dunn had a huge day, and the Vikings were trounced by the Vickless Falcons.
Philadelphia (+2) at Kansas City – I was a little worried when I turned the channel to this game and found the Eagles down 17-0. But have no fear, McNabb was there. Donovan and his little talked about receiver, Terrell Owens, had a huge second half as they brought the Eagles back in a hurry. A late score brought the Chiefs back within a touchdown, but the failed onside kick sealed another victory for Lucky and the Eagles.

San Francisco at Arizona (-2.5) – The Cardinals proved to be a much better team than the 49ers, as most teams prove to be. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are one of the best pass catching tandems in the league. Marcel Ship ran the rock well, and Josh McCowen had the people in Mexico asking why the Cards didn’t bench Kurt Warner earlier. If Joshy Woshy continues to play like this, Kurt might be stuck as a back-up again. The Cads took me over .500 with another sure win on Monday Night.
Green Bay at Carolina (-8) – Why do the Packers start playing so well when the game is already over? All it does is break my hear, my pocketbook, and my balls. For God’s sake! Brett Favre actually played a Favre-like game, but his receivers dropped a ton of his passes. The Panthers had a gaggle of opportunities to blow this game wide open but they settled for field goals often. Just often enough to let Green Bay storm in late and rip my first Monday Night payoff from my happy little hooves. Green Bay better not make a habit of this.

Big Money Bet of the Week

What was I thinking? I have no idea… Don’t worry, I’ll never take my Uncle John’s advice again. Even without Vick, Daunte made this bet look really poor.

Good Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks

Free College Football Picks Week 6 2005

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A Huge Upset on the Horizon!!!

It’s the second week of October so I picked 13 games. Try and figure out the correlation between those two… Yeah, I don’t have a clue either… Holloween’s coming?? Anyway, last week I finished 6-8. That made me decide that even numbers were bad, so I took one less game this week. Leaving the chances of a push nearly impossible. I predict a big week out of myself. There are more upsets on the horizon.

North Carolina State @ Georgia Tech (-4.5) – The Yellow Jackets took their first loss of the season last week when they got destroyed by a very good Virginia Tech football team. Georgia Tech didn’t like the taste that game left in their mouth. They’ll be out to prove they are better than that game, and they’ll do exactly that against a Wolfpack team that has won one game thus far. NC State hasn’t been embarrassed, losing a tough game against the Tar Heels last week, and a four point loss to the same Hokies that destroyed Georgia Tech. My prediction is that Georgia Tech QB, Reggie Ball has a much better game this week than he did last. The Yellow Jackets will have a big bounce back game at home, taking the Wolfpack by a touchdown. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: North Carolina State Wolfpack 27 – Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 34.

Illinois @ Indiana (-6) – The Hoosiers were beaten by a much better team last week in Wisconsin. This week the Illinois Fighting Illini and their three straight losses come to Indiana to prove they still have fight. Illinois has looked silly in their last couple games, (14-61 vs. Michigan St. and 7-35 at Iowa) The Hoosiers have a good young team led by Blake Powers and James Hardy. Powers is a solid young quarterback who will get better each week he plays. Hardy is as tall as a tree and blazing fast. These two future stars will hook up early and often as the Hoosiers move to 4-1. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini 21 – Indiana Hoosiers 38.

Wisconsin (-7) @ Northwestern – The Badgers are very, very, every bit as good as they’re said to be. Brian Calhoun is dominant, and the Badger offense doesn’t stop there. John Stocco doesn’t have great numbers, but he knows how to run his football team as well as anybody in the land. Last week Brandon Williams showed me he can be a big time playmaker for the Badgers, making them even better than I thought. As always, the Badgers can control the clock while keeping their defense fresh. Look for that trend to continue at Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats are no pushovers; they won two games early and played Penn State tough. However, if the Badgers play like they can, this contest should be out of hand early. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers 31 – Northwestern.

Virginia @ Boston College (-7) – After three early wins, the Virginia Cavaliers had high hopes. There was no good reason for that. The Cavaliers played Western Michigan, Syracuse, and Duke to start the season. That’s not exactly top tier talent. A 12 point loss at Maryland was more like it, and another big loss to a solid Boston College team is right up Virginia’s alley. Expect the world from BC after a big win at Clemson and a trouncing of Ball State. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Virginia Cavaliers 13 – Boston College Eagles 28.

Oklahoma @ Texas (-13.5) – Oklahoma always takes care of the Texas Longhorn National Championship run. Not this year Mr. Stoops. Mack Brown is out for redemption when the Longhorns host the Sooners on Saturday. Do you think Brown will hold back at all when the Longhorns are up big early? I think not. Expect Vince Young to showcase every single ounce of his ample ability, picking apart a sub par Sooner defensive unit. The Longhorns will stack the box against the Sooners, making them pay for all those times Bob Stoops’ squad took down Texas. The real Heisman star will show up in Texas! Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners 17 – Texas Longhorns 48.

Maryland (-28.5) @ Temple – The Maryland Terrapins are big point-scorers when they play bottom of the barrel teams like the Temple Owls. I don’t mean to pick on Temple, but they’re one of if not the worst team in college football. There are many D-2 teams that would give the Owls some tough run. Maryland will score upwards of 55 points holding the Owls to their season average of around 12. I’d like to thank Temple for giving me another win. Thanks! Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Maryland Terrapins 55 – Temple Owls 14.

Minnesota (+7.5) @ Michigan – I think last week was an aberration, for both these teams. The Wolverines walked into Michigan State an underdog and out of the AP’s Top 25 for the first time in many years. They walked out with a big shit-poked grin on their faces, a win, and a brand new AP Rank of 21. The Golden Gophers (ranked 18) went to Pennsylvania to play the Nittany Lions and got absolutely obliterated by Joe Paterno’s boys. This week will show me the true identity of both these teams. I don’t think Laurence Marooney will ever have a game as poor as the Penn State loss. I don’t think the Wolverines will beat another team like the Spartans all year. Take the Golden Gophers to upset the Wolverines and take their top 25 ranking for the second time this year. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Minnesota Golden Gophers 38 – Michigan Wolverines 24.

Air Force (+1) @ Navy – Air Force started out the season with two big wins, then promptly lost three straight. Don’t write them off. Two of those three losses were by 3 points or less. Navy got their first win of the year against Duke, after losing two tough games early. This will be a dogfight, there’s no doubt about it. But the Air Force Falcons are the better football team, and Saturday’s contest will show that. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Air Force Falcons 28 – Navy Midshipmen 24.

Arizona @ USC (-37.5) – The Trojans have been playing like dog crap in the first half of late. Don’t think for a moment that Pete Carrol will continue to let that happen. Look for USC to take advantage of the 1-3 Wildcats, come out and absolutely dominate. USC doesn’t like pulling games out in the final minutes. USC will be done with this game after half time. But they don’t stop there. The Trojans have too much talent to finish this game anywhere close to Arizona. Look for an old fashion stomping. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Arizona Wildcats 3 – USC Trojans 49.

Georgia (+3) @ Tennessee – Tennessee doesn’t even know which of their two quarterbacks gives them the best chance to win. I’d say the answer is whomever doesn’t start for the team. This week, Erik Ainge will come in late and try to down the Bulldogs. But he’ll fail. Georgia hasn’t dominated their opponents like they should, but they win, and they’ll win this weekend. Luck has gone the way of the Vols too often this early season. Look for the luck to change when the Bulldogs come to town and outplay the Vols in every aspect of the game. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Georgia Bulldogs 24 – Tennessee Volunteers 14.

Ohio @ Bowling Green (-22.5) – Bowling Green has one of the most dominant players in college football. Omarr Jacobs is his name, and if you haven’t seen him play, you’re missing out on a truly special youngster Jacobs will shred the Ohio defense for big plays all day as Bowling Green wins a high scoring game big. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Ohio Bobcats 30 – Bowling Green Falcons 57.

North Carolina (+13) @ Louisville – Beware of the Heels! The Tar Heels are much better than people are giving them credit for, as they proved last week taking down NC State. Louisville has had a tough time of it since they were touted as a National Championship hopeful. Carolina plays tight with every team they play. They haven’t lost a game by more than 9 this year, and have only lost to G-Tech and Wisconsin. This has the makings of a huge upset if Louisville overlooks the Tar Heels for even a second. Tough Tar Heel D will keep this one closer than 13. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels 31 – Louisville Cardinals 28.

Oregon @ Arizona State (-10) – The Sun Devils already have two more losses than they thought they’d have all year. Watch them take their anger out on the Oregon Ducks who haven’t beaten anybody of note. The Ducks will be breathing hard against Sam Keller and the Devils in Arizona. It will be a hot one the Ducks wish they had back. This is a good match between two teams that had USC on the ropes before the Trojans snuck back into victory’s path. Take the much better Sun Devils to outlast the Ducks in Arizona. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Oregon Ducks 17 – Arizona State Sun Devils 45.

Week 5 College Football Picks Review

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I was had!!!
USC pulled one out of the hat, as they took the Sun Devils by ten. As for me, I had the same fate as Arizona State, up early, down late. Follow my 6-8 week as I review the games I won, and the games that ripped holes in my check book.

Kansas State (+7) @ Oklahoma – I picked the Wildcat score. Unfortunately I don’t get half my money back for that one. The Sooners couldn’t and wouldn’t be stopped by Kansas State. A team the Sooners still seem to own. Adrian Peterson lost any chance he had to win the Heisman when he went out in the second quarter with a foot injury. Stoops said he should be fine, but eight carries for 51 yards isn’t going to get you any votes. Ask Laurence Maroney. If you told me the Sooners were going to win without Peterson in the game, I would have laughed in your face. Then of course, you would have laughed last. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats 21 – Oklahoma Sooners 20. Actual: Wildcats 21 – Sooners 43.

Notre Dame @ Purdue (-3) – A swing and a miss. Actually Purdue beat the Irish by seven in the second half. Unfortunately for me the Boilermakers gave the Irish a head start. After the first half it was already 28-0. At least I didn’t have to watch Notre Dame after the first fifteen minutes… I had a CSI episode on Tivo… that sucked too! Can’t win ’em all. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 23 – Purdue Boilermakers 30. Actual: Irish 49 – Boilermakers 28.

Temple @ Bowling Green (-28) – Thank God for the Temple Owls! “Temple is very, very, almost as bad as Duke. (0-4, can it get any worse? yes, say 0-5) The Bowling Green Falcons only have one win to show for their first three games. But they’re better than that.” (me) This game was easier than the Texas Missouri game. Omarr Jacobs has enough talent in his own right hand to beat the Owls by 50. Jacobs numbers you ask? 26-30, 326yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions. He’s a man among Owls! Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Temple Owls 13 – Bowling Green Falcons 49. Actual: Owls 7 – Falcons 70.

Washington @ UCLA (-21.5) – The Huskies take me down for the second time this year. This game was way too close. Either the Bruins took a huge step back or the Huskies are way better than I expected. Bet on the step back. The Huskies not only played close with the Bruins, but they had UCLA beat. The Dogs were up 14 in the fourth, but fell victim to their own inability to finish football games. The Huskies have allowed more points in 4th quarters this year than all their first halves combined. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Washington Huskies 17 – UCLA Bruins 50. Actual: Huskies 17 – Bruins 21.

Utah @ North Carolina (-3.5) – A big win right on the money for me. The Tar Heels are a better team than many believe. They’ll continue to prove themselves against tough competition throughout the year. The Tar Heels will be bowling come December. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Utah Utes 17 – North Carolina Tar Heels 27. Actual Utes 17 – Tar Heels 31.

USC @ Arizona State (+16.5) – Well, I won the bet, but lost the big upset call. What can you do? If it wasn’t for this and that and all that other stuff the Sun Devils would have won. Exactly. If it wasn’t for the Reggie Bush and Lindell White and…. the list goes on and on. But remember, USC has made a small habit of playing like shit in the first half. Luckily for them the opposition in both those games have come out in the second half like a flat tire. If they continue to shit bricks in the first half, their opponent might come out in the second half with more confidence. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: USC 37 – Arizona State Sun Devils 42. Actual: Trojans 38 – Sun Devils 28.

Minnesota (-2.5) @ Penn State – I didn’t see this one coming. I didn’t think Laurence Maroney would get held under 100 yards against anyone, let alone Joe Pa’s Nittany Lions. I thought the Gophers would score way too many points for the Lions to follow, but it was Paterno’s Penn State squad that turned up the fire on offense. Maroney fell from the Heisman race in a big loss for the previously undefeated Nittany Lions. But how great would it be to see Joe Paterno’s bunch of boys run the table? After everyone was giving Joe a hard time for continuing to coach. Stay as long as you want Mr. Paterno! Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Minnesota Golden Gophers 46 – Penn State Nittany Lions – 27. Actual: Gophers 14 – Nittany Lions 44.

Florida (-4) @ Alabama – Looks like I was wrong about a lot of things. Mainly those men in Alabama. This was an amazingly bad day for the Gators. “A Meyer-coached team had never been held without a touchdown, and the Gators hadn’t been kept out of the end zone since 1992.”(CBS) A nice double team on those two streaks. Meyer was welcomed to the SEC by Alabama to the tune of total destruction. A young man named Tyron Prothro took a short slant and ran bye the Gators like they were stuck on pause by Tivo. Now that’d be an expensive upgrade. Looks like Meyer’s Gators, and myself, are back to the drawing board . Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Florida Gators 32 – Alabama Crimson Tide 20. Actual: Gators 3 – Crimson Tide 31.

Navy (-6) @ Duke – Duke gets beat at home by Navy and nobody says a thing. That’s how bad Duke football is. Navy outmaneuvered and outscored the Blue Devils, even with 11 points from Duke in the fourth quarter. I get a big smile on my face when I win money off of a Duke loss. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Navy Midshipmen 38 – Duke Blue Devils 13. Actual: Midshipmen 28 – Duke 21.

Virginia Tech (-10.5) @ West Virginia – Virginia met their match against their cross state rivals. The Hokies were better than the Mountaineers in every aspect of the game. Marcus Vick looked better than ever, and his confidence was booming throughout the game. Look out for these Hokies! Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Virginia Tech Hokies 49 – West Virginia Mountaineers 21. Actual: Hokies 34 – Mountaineers 17.

Clemson (-7) @ Wake Forest – Bottom line… I just flat out didn’t think the Clemson Tigers were this bad. I was wrong. Clemson was held scoreless in the fourth quarter, and instead of destroying Wake, they got beat by four. So I struck out on this game. Even the best go down to a knuckle-baller sometimes. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Clemson Tigers 45 – Wake Forest Demon Deacons 14. Actual: Clemson 27 – Deacons 31.

Michigan @ Michigan State (-5.5) – This game was close just like I had imagined. I was down seven late in the game until the biggest damn guy on State’s team picks up a fumble and bumbles eighty firkin yards for a touchdown to tie it up. As you well know, that wasn’t gonna do it for me. So I was back to my old antics, hope for overtime, an easy score from the Spartans and hold the Wolverines to nothing. Unfortunately the Wolverines marched down the field and had a 20 yard field goal to win it. Fortunately the bonner missed it wide right. My overtime wishes had been granted. Then my wishes turned to the shits. The spartans were held scoreless and Michigan’s bonner of a kicker puts the ball through the uprights for the three point victory. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Michigan Wolverines 17 – Michigan State Spartans 24. Actual: Wolverines 34 – Spartans 31.

Indiana @ Wisconsin (-17.5) – The Badgers walloped the Hoosiers. If it wasn’t for a meaningless score with a minute and change left on the clock the score would have been 41-17. If you do the math, that would have made me a winner. As it stands, mark Lucky down for another loss by a half a point. Son of a….. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Indiana Hoosiers 17 – Wisconsin Badgers 38. Actual; Hoosiers 24 – Wisconsin 41.

Texas (-14.5) @ Missouri – This one was as easy as Tracy Cox. Honestly, I wish all games could be like this. Vince Young was dominate, kid looked like an NFL starter playing middle school ball. Missouri wasn’t ready, and they’ll never be ready for Texas. Lucky’s Fearless Prediction: Texas Longhorns 56 – Missouri Tigers 17. Actual: Texas 51 – Missouri 20.

Free NFL Picks 05-06 Week 4

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In the first week of the season, only 6 underdogs won or covered the spread. In week 2 only 7 of the 16 underdogs won or covered. week 3 saw 9 of 14 underdogs win or cover. That anomaly basically took a sledgehammer to my balls. I’m expecting week 4 to have the least amount of underdog covers thus far. That’s why I’m only taking 5 dogs. This year, I have lost 5 more games than I’ve won. This week, I have a goal; I want to get my overall record back to even par. I hear the Packers have a goal too; they want to win a game. We’ll see which happens first. Follow my thought process now and sing my praises by week’s end. This is Lucky Lester trying to make amends…Buffalo at New Orleans (E) – The Saints are back to the inconsistent ways of their past. Aaron Brooks hasn’t played up to his ability, and Deuce McCallister can’t find room to run behind his offensive line. Last week against Atlanta, Buffalo lost their top defensive player, Takeo Spikes, for the remainder of the season. Willis McGahee had a great game against the Falcons, but he can’t win games by himself. Deuce will have an easier time against Buffalo without Spikes there to stop him. Aaron Brooks has to play better for the Saints to win, and he’ll do so this week in San Antonio. The Saints defense, led by Dwight Smith, will corral JP Losman, who hasn’t proven to be much of a presence at quarterback. The Saints will need big turnovers to win their second game of the year, but they’ll get them early, and hold on late for the victory. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Denver at Jacksonville (-4) – Jacksonville, Oh Jacksonville, please kick the crap out-the Broncos. I was watching Monday Night Football with the biggest Bronco fan of all time. Of course he was one of those Bronco fans who love to rub it in when their stupid Mile High Snipers pummel the Chief team you bet your entire bank roll on. They don’t care that you are losing more money than their Wal-Mart working asses make in an entire year. They sit there and say, “Who did you bet on?” – “What’s the score?” and you just want to kill them. Well this week I’m out for revenge, and I’m going to get it. I’m taking the Jaguars to win at home big. The Jaguars are one of the leagues best team, and unfortunately for Mike Shanahan’s Denver Donkeys, this isn’t a Monday night game. This is a Sunday Morning game against one of the best rush defenses in the league. Look for Jacksonville to put some separation between them and the pretenders.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

Detroit at Tampa Bay (-7) – Right before the Lions took a week off, they got hammered by the Chicago Bears. Kyle Orton played well enough to absolutely embarrass the revamped Lions. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 3-0 with big wins and little wins alike. They held on to take the Packers in Green Bay last week, 17-16. They beat Minnesota in Week 1, and halted the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. The Bucs have allowed under 11 points a game in 3 contests. This week will be more of the same for Gruden, Cadillac Williams, and the rest of the much improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions had one bad week, but they shouldn’t be left for dead. They have an explosive offensive bunch if Joey Harrington plays well, and their defense has many new players who have yet to mesh. They will still be a player in the weak NFC North. As for Week 4, the Lions should be dominated by a Buccaneer team who has already meshed, already played well, and seems to be getting better every game.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Houston at Cincinnati (-9.5) – The Bengals are favored by nearly 10 points for a reason. The Texans haven’t played within 10 of anyone, and the promise that was there a year ago seems to have fallen like David Carr’s wounded ducks. All the blame can’t go to David though, his offensive line hasn’t played very well. But it’s all right to blame David for most of it. He’s looked as pathetic as third year quarterback Carson Palmer has looked brilliant. Palmer is an early, very early candidate for MVP, as he’s played a large roll in turning the Bungels into ferocious Bengals once again. This Bengal team is full of talent all over the football field. Chad Johnson is the best young receiver in this league, and Rudi Johnson has proven to be as tough as they come. TJ Houshmenzadah has played the 2 receiver roll perfectly, and Chris Perry has done a great job at back up running back. Look for the Bengals to continue down their warpath, and the Texans to continue to play the roll of roadkill. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Indianapolis (-7) at Tennessee – The Titans played well enough to cover last week in St. Louis, while the Colts played just well enough to win at home against Cleveland. So this week should mark another close contest? No chance. I’m sure Peyton Manning is sick of all the “Where’d Peyton go?” talk that’s circulating. I’m expecting a huge week from Manning and the rest of the Colt offense. The Titans don’t have the fire power to play with the Colts. Chris Brown is the lone running back in the backfield, so expect the highly talented back to have his biggest day of the year. In fact expect the Titans to score more points against he Colts than any of the Colts’ previous opponents. But don’t expect Steve McNair to pull out a victory on Sunday. The Colts will eventually take this game easily, blowing out the Titans in Tennessee. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

San Diego (+5.5) at New England – The Patriots lucked out big time last week in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger played one of his worst games in his young career, and Willie Parker and the Steeler rushing attack didn’t do jack. This week the San Diego Chargers, coming off their big win against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, are coming to New England for one of the weeks biggest games. I don’t think the New England defense, minus their starting linebackers from a year ago, minus their best defensive player Rodney Harrison, will be able to stop Antonio Gates or the leagues best running back, Ladainian Tomlinson. For the first time in a long while, LT ran like the guy who broke into this league. He had the best single game of any player so far this year. (192 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, 25 passing yards, and 4 total touchdowns) I think LT just remembered what it’s like to dominate at the highest level. I think he’s going to continue to dominate. I think the Chargers are going to upset the defending Champs in New England. I think Jessica Biel is hot. Take the Chargers.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

Seattle (+2) at Washington – The Seahawks are going to kill the Washington Huskies… I mean the Redskins. Mark Brunell bought himself another week or two as a starter with two “GOD PLEASE!!!” throws to Santana Moss in the last 3 minutes of the Cowboy game in Week 2. Last week the Redskins couldn’t prove how bad they actually are because they had a bye. Clinton Portis has run better than last year, but the scheme in Washington still doesn’t fit his style of running. Mark Brunell wishes he had the same physical skill he used to have when he was the signal caller at the University of Washington. Mark needs more time than the Redskins line gives him. The Seahawks will blitz the Redskins until their helmets fall off, not allowing Brunell enough time to get his feet set and send bombs to Moss down field. Don’t overvalue the Redskins because they’re 2-0. They beat the Bears without scoring a single touchdown. They slipped by the Cowboys by scoring 2 touchdowns within 3 minutes of each other. They aren’t a dominate team. They aren’t high-powered enough to stick with the Hawks who just happen to have more weapons than Nick Cage in “God of War.” Take the Hawks in a minor upset in Washington. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

St. Louis (+3) at N.Y. Giants – What do you know, the Rams didn’t cover as favorites last week against the Titans. Well, the Rams are underdogs this week in New York. They’re playing an overrated Giants team who got trumped by the Chargers in Week 3. As I pointed out last week, the Rams’ have a poor record against the spread when they are the favorites. It’s different when they’re underdogs (5-5 in last 10) and even better when the spread is 4 or less (7-3 in last 10). Plus the Rams always like to surprise me, and originally I figure the Giants would win this game. So everything points to a Ram victory. Giants are overrated, the Rams trick me left and right, the Rams have a great record against the spread when they are underdogs, this is underdog weekend. See… Take the Rams!
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-7) – I can’t take the New York Jets with Brooks Bollinger starting at quarterback. That’s it. Especially against a Ravens defense which has underachieved in each of their first two games. Ray Lewis and company can’t be happy with their offense, but even more so, they can’t be proud of their own lack of big plays. The Jets have tumbled off my play-off radar, and the Ravens will take advantage of that at home in Week 4. Jamal Lewis has to play better than 9 carries for 10 yards. Jamal hasn’t played to his ability, in fact the whole Raven team has underachieved. And just like Daunte Culpepper did last week, the Ravens will prove they are a contender in their third game. Take Baltimore to stomp Brooks Bollinger’s face mask into the turf. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:05 ET
Dallas at Oakland (-3.5) – Like I said, the Cowboys are the worst 2-1 team in football and the Raiders are the best 0-win team in the league. Dallas sucked last week, but they’re not as bad as San Francisco so they slipped past Tim Rattay and the 49ers. This week Randy Moss is going to catch two long bombs, plus a plethora of other big plays. Dallas doesn’t have the testis to take down the Raiders in Oakland. Kerry Collins played well last week against the Eagles, that marks the first week in the last 10 years that both Drew Bledsoe and Kerry Collins played a good game. Unfortunately for Randy and the Raiders, last week was similar to the first three games, Philadelphia pulled out a slim victory. Dallas’ weakness is in the secondary. Jerry Porter, Randy Moss, Courtney Anderson, and Lamont Jordan will find plenty of holes in the silver secondary. Take the Raiders to get their first victory since Randy made the move to Oak Town. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET
Minnesota (+6) at Atlanta – A little known fact is the Vikings cover in 66% of the games they are given points. Last week, “Baby Hands” Culpepper finally found a way to hold on to the ball last week against New Orleans. Daunte was balling up his baby fists and doing that “Daunte rollout celebration” thing he does. It was nice to see. Pep had zero turnovers for the first time this year, and the Viking defense played well enough to win. Daunte still doesn’t have a powerful running game, but even Mewelde Moore, Michael Bennett, and Moe Williams will look like a feared attack against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed a featured back to rush for over 140 yards in two of their first three games this year. Moore and company will do enough to keep the Falcon defense honest. Daunte will have his second good game in a row, throwing a late touchdown to lead his Minnesota Vikings to victory over the over-pumped Falcons.
Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET
Philadelphia (+2) at Kansas City – How about them Chiefs? Thanks for the big Monday night loss boys! How about them Eagles? That was a real nice thing you did, letting the Raiders play close enough to cover the spread. Thanks! These two Week 3 testi-smashers helped empty my wallet in week 3, but nothing was more disappointing than the Chiefs getting annihilated by the Broncos. The Eagles continue to find ways to win, and I can’t imagine Trent Green will stop them. The “new and improved” Chiefs defensive unit resembled the sieve they had last year in Kansas City. They’ll play better this week, but Philly has too many studs to let the Chiefs hold them in check. Donovan McNabb is still feeling effects from the shot he took in Week 1, but it hasn’t effected him since the Falcon game. The Eagles always play great as underdogs. This week will be the same old same old for Andy Reid and the Eagles. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET

San Francisco at Arizona (-2.5) – The 49ers should have walked away from the Dallas game at 2-1. Unfortunately they did just poorly enough to blow a huge lead against an average team, ruin my Sunday, and finish with another loss. Nice. This week, the underachieving Cardinals will play well enough to trounce the Niners. Dennis Green has had three weeks of frustration. They’ve lost in every fashion a team can. Their defense has played like garbage, and their offense has been pathetic. Rookie Antrel Rolle has been picked on by opposing offenses, he’ll play better this week. Look for a couple big plays from Rolle. Warner will be benched this week, so the Cards should play better ball. Josh McCowen is a decent quarterback who doesn’t hold on to the ball as long as Warner. This should help the Cardinals in a very important game. With the Hawks playing as well as they are, if the Cardinals lose to the bottom-dwelling Niners, they won’t have a chance at post-season football. Dennis Green will make this clear to his Cardinals, and they’ll play accordingly.
Game Date: 10/02/05 20:35 ET
Green Bay at Carolina (-8) – The Panthers are horrendous against the spread when favored. But as The Rock once told Wyclef Jean, “It Doesn’t Matter!” The Panthers are playing the winless Packers. The Packers tend to play like moldy piss until they don’t have a chance to pull out with a win. This week the Pack won’t play good football one single series. The Panthers are known for coming out tough after a big loss, and last week was definitely that. Miami is better than everyone, (including me) thought they’d be, but they aren’t as good as Carolina. Carolina will show how good they can be on the Monday Night stage, against the Green Bay Punching Bags. Brett Favre is catching some big time karma from bitching about Javon Walker not showing up to camp. Well Brett, Javon’s out for the year, and by the end of the season, or maybe even this game, you’ll wish you were out for the year. Take the Panthers in a rare win against the spread as they slaughter the Packers in Carolina. Game Date: 10/03/05 21:05 ET

Big Money Bet of the Week

Minnesota Vikings +210 against the Falcons in Atlanta. This a good chance to double your money riding a rejuvenated Daunte Culpepper against a less than stellar Falcon defense. Take the Vikings to come through with an outright win. Game Date: 10/02/04 16:15 ET
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Lucky Lester – Free Football Picks